2nd Greek Exit Poll Remains Balanced As Elderly Bias For New Democracy Pushes Them Into Slight Lead

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While the burning of a ballot box in Exharia, Athens remains the most unrest among the civilians we have seen so far (in which 2 policemen were injured), the second exit poll results are in and New Domcracy has a modest lead:

  • GREECE'S NEW DEMOCRACY GETS 28.6% - 30%   IN EXIT POLL: NET - BBG
  • GREECE'S SYRIZA GETS 27.5% - 28.4% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS - BBG
  • GREECE'S PASOK PARTY HAS 11% - 12.4% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS - BBG
  • INDEPENDENT GREEKS GETS 6.8% TO 7.8% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS - BBG
  • GREECE'S GOLDEN DAWN GETS 6.5% TO 7.1% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS - BBG
  • GREEK COMMUNIST PARTY GETS 4.8% - 5.6% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS - BBG

As a reminder (here and here), "The outcome will be too close to call if the difference between the first two parties is less than 2%-3% with strong precedent of exit polls failing to predict the outcome when the race is tight."

The media, always happy to jump to conclusions, has already broken down the parliament assuming as if ND has defeated Syriza, getting the automatic 50 seats that go to the winner. That the difference is well within sampling error apparently is irrelevant:

  • GREECE'S CONSERVATIVE NEW DEMOCRACY GETTING 127 SEATS IN PARLIAMENT, LEFTIST SYRIZA WITH 72 SEATS, SOCIALISTS WITH 32 SEATS- EXIT - BBG

In the meantime, a friendly reminder from the Germans:

  • GERMANY'S WESTERWELLE SAYS GREEK PACKAGE CAN'T BE NEGOTIATED - BBG

And a breakdown by age (via @ekathermini) shows the overwhelming bias to elder support for the status quo (while it appears those young and middle-aged Greek civilians - who have years to live we presuppose - would prefer some change)...

Vote breakdown by age:

  • 18-34 SYRIZA 33%, ND 20%
  • 35-54 SYRIZA 34%, ND 24%
  • 55- ND 39%, SYRIZA 20%
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Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:42 | 2534254 Mongo
Mongo's picture

Greeks get what they deserve if they vote for pro-bailout-crap.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:46 | 2534263 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

True Democracy:

Three wolves and two sheep voting on what's for lunch...

 

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:02 | 2534328 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

2 wolves and 10 sheep.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 15:30 | 2534607 caconhma
caconhma's picture

The elderly, over their lifetime, are responsible for the present economic and political situation.

Now, they are looking for somebody to fulfill the old promises they were supporting and voting for. Sorry old fools but you must pay for your own stupidity and greed.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:47 | 2534271 knukles
knukles's picture

The arrogance of the EU just amazes me, "that the bailouts cannot be renegociated."

Every heard of jungle mail?
Saying "Fuck you."?
So sue me.

I mean, what the fuck, who is trying to kid whom, just get real.

Jesus......

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:58 | 2534306 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

A.  Its Jingle mail.

B.  The said the terms of the bail-out can't be renegotiated.  The bail-out is Germany give the Greeks the money to run their country at a 10% GDP deficit and to finance their PSI.  If their is no bailout then Greeks have to cut deficit to $0, and they have to default on PSI.

I AGREE that no bail-out is best for the Greeks and the Germans.  I'm just saying, Jingle mail isnt the same thing as the bail-out being renegotiated.  A different set of players get it up the ass.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:03 | 2534331 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

Germany to Greece: GERMANY'S WESTERWELLE SAYS GREEK PACKAGE CAN'T BE NEGOTIATED

Greece To Germany (With gun to own head) : Ya'll Better give us more free money, or the Ni***r gets it!! (Blazing Saddles reference)

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:48 | 2534272 rosex229
rosex229's picture

Greeks, as people (you know like you or me), don't "deserve" anything. 

 

Its no different than saying "Americans (including aware people like you and me) deserve the future they'll get." Its a blanket statement that ignores the fact that Greece is composed of a number of different peoples.

 

The fact the election is so close proves that a large percentage of the population will be forced, against their will, into a future of debt serfdom... soon coming to America.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:52 | 2534285 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And the American people deserves Obama or Romney?? Really? I bet at least 10-20%+ don't want any of them.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:54 | 2534292 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

That's what happens when you let the majority vote away the rights of the minority.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 16:53 | 2534750 CharlieSDT
CharlieSDT's picture

tru dat, bro

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:43 | 2534257 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

"While the burning of a ballot box in Exharia, Athens remains the most unrest among the civilians we have seen so far"

I guess hand grenades are considered military, huh? 

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:48 | 2534274 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Article doesn't say how long the grenades were there before being discovered.

Maybe some 'leftovers' from last year's unrest?....

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:46 | 2534262 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

SURPRISE!!!

And now back to your regularly scheduled debt slavery life.

As usual, a big fat fucking bag of NOTHING.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:48 | 2534266 edzorino
edzorino's picture

If the Greek's vote for austerity, and for being crushed under Merkel's jackboots, I hope Greece is destroyed, and their children's lives are blighted for generations to come. The Greek's have erased themselves from history.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:54 | 2534291 Joe Ploppy
Joe Ploppy's picture

"I hope Greece is destroyed, and their children's lives are blighted for generations to come. "

Reminds me of the intentions of Persian King Xerxes before he over ran Leonidas and his 300 Spartans and 1000 Thespians.  The Greeks eventually won and conquered the known world back then.  They'll have no such luck this time around, imho.  The Banksters are too powerful.

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:01 | 2534322 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Swords and spears can slice my rear, but fiat money enslaves me?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:01 | 2534324 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Nope.  Merkel should not give another Eurocent to Greece.  MAYBE some food and medical supplies as aid to help through their self-inflicted depression.  Oh, the Euro banks that made greedy bad bets?  Let them fail too.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 15:59 | 2534679 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Fat chance on that "let the banks fail" idea.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:01 | 2534325 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

The Greeks are more resiliant then you give them credit for.  Even if this vote goes for ND/PASOK - its only because the Germans and the Media have scared the >50+ crowd into thinking the world will end tomrrow if Syriza wins.  Even a ND/PASOK win sufficient to get a government togeather will be unsuccessful in legislating slavery for the Greek people.  Havent you heard about the grenades found at 3 ballot stations and the GD goons outside others?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:48 | 2534275 algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

Skai TV gives first seat projections from their exit polls: Syriza 28% 124 seats, ND, 27.5% 73 seats, Pasok 13% 33 seats.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:51 | 2534277 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And? Greece needs a new bailout by end of July or they run out of money...

And a breakdown by age (via @ekathermini) shows the overwhelming bias to elder support for the status quo

And this is why nothing will change in the western countries till full collapse.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:50 | 2534278 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

I am hearing that the late voters have up to a 5% swing against ND + PASOK pro Leftists 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:50 | 2534280 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Karl Rove must still be in the US.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:05 | 2534336 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

You ever met Karl?  I have.  Hell I worked with/against him when he tried to ride rough shot over the Texas Republican Party with the Bush War Machine.

I respect the hell out of him as a political strategist.  And he's a decent person - he just does what he has to to win.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:29 | 2534425 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

Maybe the Romney/Rowe team is already in Greece manipulating the Diebold machines...

For them it is a simple code change.

From:

/* Israel 4ever */

Diebold.VoteFlipping('Paul','Romney')

To:

/* Ponzi 4ever */

Diebold.VoteFlipping('Syriza','ND')

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:14 | 2534768 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

redundant code line detected!

/* Ponzi 4ever */

is identical to

/* Israel 4ever */

lmao!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:51 | 2534282 Kurpak
Kurpak's picture

I could go for an elderly gyro sammich right about now...with extra debtziki sauce. mmmm

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:53 | 2534286 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

I don't see GS's name on the list?

 

Odd.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:54 | 2534289 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Skai TV shows...

Syriza 28% = 124 Seats

ND 27.5% = 73 Seats

Pasok 13% = 33%

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:55 | 2534294 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Don't be stupid, Go Icelandic!  It's the only way to fly; let the rest of the world get by as it will... OPAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:55 | 2534296 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Is their something out there better then Guardian.co.uk to watch?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:55 | 2534299 timbo_em
timbo_em's picture

My precious metals told me that they don't care who finishes first. I can't wait to hear policy makers comment on the results (assumed that ND and PASOK get the majority): strong signal for the euro, we're on the right track, bla bla bla

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:58 | 2534305 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Watch as Syriza gets voted in and takes a bailout package.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 15:58 | 2534670 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

The smart prediction - why all of a sudden would a political party be "principled" and not completely bought and paid for by TPTB?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:20 | 2535133 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Alas too late. New Bailocracy has won.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:00 | 2534318 GS-DickinDaMuppets
GS-DickinDaMuppets's picture

I just do not see the big deal with the Greek elections.  No matter the outcome, nothing with the EURO$ changes, nothing in Spain, Italy, Germany, etc. changes.  WTF?  The changes will happen ONLY when the sheeple start burning down and destoring the current Banking system and the criminals running it, including the "joined-at-the-hip-payed-for-politicians"  When the current Bankers and Politicians are fearful of being seen in public for fear of being attacked and beaten to a pulp, then there will be significant changes to the "SYSTEM" that will truly be for the good of the people.

 

...doing GOD's work...GS-DickinDaMuppets

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:06 | 2534321 edzorino
edzorino's picture

Every baby thrown out with the rubbish, left to rot because their parents can't afford to feed it, is on the consicience of every person that voted for New Democracy. Just remember folks, Jamie Dimon masturbates over pictures of the rotting corpes of your dead children. 

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:52 | 2537387 PrinceDraxx
PrinceDraxx's picture

I'm guessing birth control is unavailable in Greece as it seems to be in every other EU country where welfare mamas pop out kids until they are making enough Euros to live on. Hasn't anyone in this world got even a tiny bit of personal responsibility. Why do you continue to create mouths to feed when you can't fill your own. What a bunch of pampered whining assholes.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:04 | 2534332 Apeman
Apeman's picture

Stupid old people are going to ruin it.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:18 | 2534390 mantrid
mantrid's picture

oh yeah and the young voting for prolonged welfare are pushing towards economic success I suppose.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:22 | 2534409 Apeman
Apeman's picture

It's not prolonged welfare they're voting for.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 15:38 | 2534623 mantrid
mantrid's picture

It's not prolonged welfare they think thet're voting for.

 

fixed it for ya :)

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 15:58 | 2534673 Apeman
Apeman's picture

You didn't fix anything, but whatever.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:05 | 2534334 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

Theory:  The race is too close to call and takes several days to sort through all the votes (assume there will be at least one recount).  The recount(s) drag on past the FOMC meeting taking place 6/19-6/20.  Fed doesn't announce anything major because it wants to wait for more clarity on the Greek election.  Market tanks.  Thoughts?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:11 | 2534355 bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

who trusts these elections? I don't. 

I think Greece will see civil war before it sees a change of power to an anti-bailout party.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:31 | 2534366 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

My market cynical side says Eurodollar rally on hope, then plunge on reality. ES futures will ramp and dump in the same pattern.

Or it all unravels, what the hell do I know.

 

Update: Friend with bloomberg terminal says EUR/USD at 1.2709 and rising... yep, that about does it.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:46 | 2534483 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

If it was real money, it would be over 2.00 by now.  With everyone pulling it out of the system and hiding it, the Euro should be scarce.  But this is paper and digital nothing money.  The CBs set exchange rates where ever they want for their own nonsensical reasons.  The only currency trade is either you own physical gold or you don't.  Everything paper is pure manipulated nothing.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:16 | 2534376 mantrid
mantrid's picture

while it appears those young and middle-aged Greek civilians - who have years to live we presuppose - would prefer some change

 

WTF? change? what change? Tyler you have misunderstood what status quo you're talking about. Syriza is pro-status-quo, pro-benefits, pro-welfare, pro-spending, anti-deregulation, anti-labour-reform bunch of lobbysts interested in keeping things as they were. ironically, it is ND that is challenging this status-quo of welfare spending, not by itself but commanded from Berlin.

 

Anti-bailout and anti-troika sentiments have blinded you're sense of where is up and where is down.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:21 | 2534392 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

I thought the elderly were 25 and up in Greece?

 

This is all noise. Just and excuse to start the printing presses in Europe.

So if ND wins, we get "See the EU works and all is well" market rallies.

If Syriza wins, we get "There is uncertainty and turmoil, print money" market rallies.

The real question is how long the rally before fading it. Spain, Italy and France now wriggling offstage.

 

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