• Pivotfarm
    04/18/2014 - 12:44
    Peering in from the outside or through the looking glass at what’s going down on the other side is always a distortion of reality. We sit here in the west looking at the development, the changes and...

2nd Greek Exit Poll Remains Balanced As Elderly Bias For New Democracy Pushes Them Into Slight Lead

Tyler Durden's picture





 

While the burning of a ballot box in Exharia, Athens remains the most unrest among the civilians we have seen so far (in which 2 policemen were injured), the second exit poll results are in and New Domcracy has a modest lead:

  • GREECE'S NEW DEMOCRACY GETS 28.6% - 30%   IN EXIT POLL: NET - BBG
  • GREECE'S SYRIZA GETS 27.5% - 28.4% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS - BBG
  • GREECE'S PASOK PARTY HAS 11% - 12.4% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS - BBG
  • INDEPENDENT GREEKS GETS 6.8% TO 7.8% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS - BBG
  • GREECE'S GOLDEN DAWN GETS 6.5% TO 7.1% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS - BBG
  • GREEK COMMUNIST PARTY GETS 4.8% - 5.6% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS - BBG

As a reminder (here and here), "The outcome will be too close to call if the difference between the first two parties is less than 2%-3% with strong precedent of exit polls failing to predict the outcome when the race is tight."

The media, always happy to jump to conclusions, has already broken down the parliament assuming as if ND has defeated Syriza, getting the automatic 50 seats that go to the winner. That the difference is well within sampling error apparently is irrelevant:

  • GREECE'S CONSERVATIVE NEW DEMOCRACY GETTING 127 SEATS IN PARLIAMENT, LEFTIST SYRIZA WITH 72 SEATS, SOCIALISTS WITH 32 SEATS- EXIT - BBG

In the meantime, a friendly reminder from the Germans:

  • GERMANY'S WESTERWELLE SAYS GREEK PACKAGE CAN'T BE NEGOTIATED - BBG

And a breakdown by age (via @ekathermini) shows the overwhelming bias to elder support for the status quo (while it appears those young and middle-aged Greek civilians - who have years to live we presuppose - would prefer some change)...

Vote breakdown by age:

  • 18-34 SYRIZA 33%, ND 20%
  • 35-54 SYRIZA 34%, ND 24%
  • 55- ND 39%, SYRIZA 20%
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