3 Charts On Not Buying The 'Global Recovery' Risk Rally

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While 'good is good, and bad is better'-market continues to price a higher and higher strike price for Ben, Mario, and Xiaouchuan, the twin (d)evils of energy and food price inflation could be tamping their enthusiasm for their new-found experiment. Critically, for all those 'hoping' for the pump to be primed and a self-sustaining recovery to take hold, we present three charts to rain on that parade. Whether the world's central bankers come back to the table is unclear, given their clear concerns at what they have done recently, but we suspect this is much more a 'when' than 'if' question and given the performance of asset and volatility markets, it seems this is more than priced in.

1. Global Developed Market (and Emerging for that matter) Economic Surprise Indices are all rolling over - Reality is not meeting Analyst/Market Expectations...

2. Energy Demand is dropping rapidly - suggesting that 1) global economic recovery is stalling (or magically growth has become energy independent), and 2) central bank intervention (and geopolitical tensions in their somewhat circular fashion) has led to demand destruction quicker than many would have hoped.

 

and 3. World Trade Volume growth continues to slide...

 

 

Charts: Morgan Stanley

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Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:47 | 2247141 Moneyswirth
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USA! USA! USA!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:14 | 2247220 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

whats with the BDI and BSI lately ? Heading to the moon again on hot air ?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:01 | 2247369 trav7777
trav7777's picture

I don't know but there's been a nonstop parade of these types of posts on ZH for well over a year now.

And they've all been bullshit

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:06 | 2247395 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Get some truthism from Russell Napier

Russell Napier: Darkness on the edge of town.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 00:02 | 2249567 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I've been reading your crap for 2 years 9 weeks and have come to the same conclusion about you.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:00 | 2247147 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

What coincidence because China is sucking in imports:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/88150360/

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:03 | 2247186 Jason T
Jason T's picture

China is where your real wealth is going.  Just don't put your Ben confetti there.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:50 | 2247152 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Europe did what they came to do....for now, anyway.  Balls in your court, Bernanke.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:55 | 2247162 combatsnoopy
combatsnoopy's picture

Energy inflation?  What energy inflation?  We have the following to thank Ben Bernanke (the IDIOT) for.

 

“Now, if people believe there was a lot of speculation with that $200 billion infusion back in 2008, guess what? It is even higher this year. In energy markets, it’s 43 percent higher than in June of 2008. From June of 2008 until January of last year, speculation in energy markets had increased by 64 percent.”
Bart Chilton, commissioner, CFTC
Speech, Trade Tech 2012, New York, NY
3/8/2012

http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/ SpeechesTestimony/opachilton-60

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:02 | 2247182 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I sure as hell hope the emergency brakes work when the elevator starts its final plunge.

Just to be safe though......may I suggest we get off here and now?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:14 | 2247221 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I think thats what theyre scared of the most now, any drop will quickly go out of control. No amount of brakes will stop it.

Look at last week DOW fell -200 and the same day they had to run out and spew another QE rumor just to recover it? Now thats desperation!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:21 | 2247232 resurger
resurger's picture

no news on ISDA "Credit Event"

it's peanuts!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:29 | 2247252 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well I dont believe it, someone will cut someones elses big banker throat before they cough up $3 billion REAL bucks, this isnt the fake fiat sloshing around the screens. 

Besides, '$3 billion' my ass....if THAT is what we've been walking on eggshells and doing emergency bailouts to prevent then I'll eat my hat! 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:01 | 2247370 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

exactly, "only" 3 billion? I thought the CDS market represented hundreds of billions already, even trillions

Or did most give up on their protection in the past months, as everything has been done to avoid the Greek default, or at least make it seem like it didn't happen?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 14:49 | 2247999 Eric L. Prentis
Eric L. Prentis's picture

The casino capitalism CDS market is about $25 trillion dollars.  

 Casino capitalism caused the 1907 credit crisis, only now it is many orders of magnitude larger.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:02 | 2247185 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nothin left to 'trade' out there except nonsense .25% bond swapping, and the guys at the top know damn well its all over. Had to laugh at this mornings story how the FED and GS fatcats are 'perplexed' that the economic data numbers just dont seem to be adding up right. LOL, what a hoot. And only 7 more months of 'coasting along smoothly...'nothing to see here'....with gas over $5 on the coasts and creeping into the middle, pretty quickly actually. 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:05 | 2247191 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Hello, Mr Broker good morning to you....Ive got $10,000 and need to invest it'.

OH hell what you GOT to do is buy SEVEN shares of Apple stock with it! Dont worry, there are surely plenty of Greater Fools far higher than $550...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:26 | 2247247 mendigo
mendigo's picture

Don't think of it as shares of Apple - more like Israeli War Bonds.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:05 | 2247192 death_to_fed_tyranny
death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

FUCK ALL EVIL PRINTING ORGANIZATIONS!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:10 | 2247203 GeneMarchbanks
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Terribly loud announcement, but yea! agreed... fuck books.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:06 | 2247196 Jason T
Jason T's picture

I can't even stock up on gasoline because the stuff degrades with all that ethonal.. let alone it's winter gas and won't work in the summer.  Ugh.  I see $6 gas by summer ... because China, with their currncy getting stronger Vs ours, is going to drink up a lot more than we.  

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:11 | 2247215 death_to_fed_tyranny
death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

Get some PRI-G. After the collapse, there will be alot of gummed up gasoline. PRI-G makes it good again. Also stock up on 2-cycle oil.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:10 | 2247207 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

In the meantime TVIX and TZA at record short interest levels...ring a bell gents?!?!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:11 | 2247209 mendigo
mendigo's picture

Dammit, Tyler!

I KNEW you were going to piss him (it) off - now it's gone back in it's hole.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:12 | 2247217 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Energy demand dropping rapidly'...well with all those millions now jobess and sitting home collecting a check, they dont need to drive any more. GS and FED 'perplexed' by this.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:39 | 2247289 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

It's more than just that.

It's consolidated households.  People have to move back in with their parents.  Trips to the grocery store become trip, singular.  This can be a weekly reduction by 1/2 or even 1/3 the number of trips the two or three households made to the grocery store.  Now it's all in one car.

Same for department store runs.  Same for even commutes to work.  All done in one car now.

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:45 | 2247310 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Look...there's 'rapidly' and then there's 'as fast as the dollar is losing relative value'.

The ratio can still make for high prices for crude and the pump despite low demand (even if they weren't negatively correlated).

Just means more lost refinery and rig jobs as well as the jobs lost from the impact of those prices on margins across industries.

It's a real lose/lose situation of the stagflationary kind.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNaOnpNKays

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:23 | 2247239 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Looks like a duck

Sounds like a duck

Dinner will be ready in 2 hours.  Where's my gun?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:26 | 2247246 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

When the fuck is the other shoe going to drop?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:55 | 2247351 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Oh, you didnt get the memo.  The whole thing has been called off due to a lack of interest.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:38 | 2247284 mclant004
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Were can i get good up to date stats on world energy consumption?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:40 | 2247298 CrashisOptimistic
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Here:

http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/

More than just oil there.  All BP database derived.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:39 | 2247286 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

The World is tied to China is tied to commodity prices is tied to the fiat is tied to the printing, which makes commodities blow up, which makes China blow up, which makes the world blow up.

And what is the US Congress trying to do?

Institute protectionism! Hypocritically labelling them currency manipulators! (a twisted joke perhaps?)

Fucking idiots, the lot of them. Too bad we'll lose our entire trucking industry due to insane diesel prices before they're done.

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:42 | 2247304 CrashisOptimistic
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Not going to happen.

Trucks put food on grocery store shelves. Truck fuel will be bought by the government if necessary, until the true end arrives.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:46 | 2247316 GMadScientist
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Don't remember the idled rigs in the summer of 2008?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:51 | 2247333 SheepDog-One
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LOL, theyre backed into a corner. Their Keynesian bullshit is now coming around to bite them in the ass and its out of control. You think theyll just keep 'putting food on the shelves, the gubmint will fuel the trucks, if need be'...total fantasy.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:13 | 2247421 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

the collapse in world trade means bad things for the USA's neomercantilist "trading partners"

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:17 | 2247448 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Jesus, have ya'll looked at the DOW movement graph since it hit 13k?  It looks like my father's EKG heart monitor it goes up and down so frequently!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 02:07 | 2249673 cnhedge
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the chart is not buying the recovery.

 

http://www.cnhedge.com/

http://www.jinrongbaike.com/

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