$32 Billion 3 Year Auction Prices At Second Lowest Yield Ever, Record High Bid To Cover

Tyler Durden's picture

There was a time when the short end of the curve was not very loved, as all bonds 3 years and shorter were sold by none other than the Fed. Today, that is no longer the case, driven primarily by ever louder whispers that because the Fed is very much limited in its long-dated purchases as we first calculated last Friday, it may give up on sterilization entirely (since nobody really knows what the Fed will do, but 101% of traders are now certain it will do something), and proceed to monetize all maturities as all Stock considerations are thrown away, and everyone focuses solely on the Flow. Sure enough, the $32 billion 3 year auction just priced at the second lowest yield ever of 0.337%, with only the Sept 2011 yield of 0.334% lower. This was well inside the WI yield of 0.34% at 1 pm. Offsetting the yield "disappointment" was the spike in the Bid To Cover which rose from 3.51 to 3.936, the highest ever. Finally, looking at the internals, for the first time November, Dealers took down less than half of the auction, or 49.8%, with 36.8% going to Indirects, and 13.4% to the PIMCOs of the world, and other Direct bidders such as China. Of course, if there is disappointment on Thursday, and if Dealers have no choice but to keep buying the short-end as a result of the continuation of Twist, as sterilization continues, expect to see some disappointed buyers of today's auction, which incidentally together with the rest of this week's issuance will bring total US debt to a new record of just over $16.07 trillion, and rising very rapidly.

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TheCanadianAustrian's picture

Does anyone else think we might be looking at endless stealth QE on short-term bonds combined with open-ended operation twist? Continually disappointing the markets while never allowing them to collapse?

LawsofPhysics's picture

looking at?   WTF?  ZIRP is QE!!!!!!!!   There are no "markets" for treasuries.  The fucking Fed, owns the curve.  If you think savers and reitrees are getting screwed now, just wait until NIRP kicks in in earnest, then you can buy a treasury and pay the government to lose you money.

"winning"  oh yeah, bitchez...

TheCanadianAustrian's picture

I think you misunderstood my comment. I meant "looking at" in reference to the charts, not in reference to the future.

My question was whether the fed's strategy this past year has been to "fool" the markets by making everyone believe that OT1-2 was a "step down" from QE when in reality was a cleverly-disguised QE3.

I mean why not? They can continue to pretend QE3 isn't happening because it's technically not the same thing. Instead of outright buying long bonds ala QE1-2, they do it in two steps by outright buying short bonds and trading them for long bonds through OT.

SafelyGraze's picture

the 10 year rate has steadily declined over the past 30 years from 14% to 2% 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGS10 
or 0.4% per annum. the 30 year rate has similarly declined 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGS30

in essence, this action allows everyone the opportunity to buy the deficit and sell it to primary dealers at 0.4% per annum on the open market before the PD's flip it to the freserve.

haven't found a chart that shows the spread PD's make when the sell into the POMO. even if the spread looks small, a PD that buys up treasurys one week and sells them to the freserve the next week at 0.2% is making that spread in a single week -- looks like a 0.2% rate per week equates to an 11% rate per year. 

NIRP still make sense as long as you have a guaranteed buyer at freserve to flip to. 

helping_friendly_book's picture

YES!

"But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation."

Vincent Vega's picture

Loan an insolvent government money for 3 years at .33%! What a deal, where do I sign!?

timbo_em's picture

Just wait a few more years until financial repression has fully started and you won't even have to sign. Someone in Wahington will sign your buying order for you.

A year ago, Kyle Bass gave the US three to five years to really fix things. Today, nothing has been fixed, in fact things are now even worse than they were 12 months ago.

Vincent Vega's picture

You mean repression hasn't started yet? The government taxes (by force) me at 30+% and they will pay me .33 % to 'invest' in them? Yes, when repression hits I bet it will be bad.

timbo_em's picture

I wrote "fully started". And a quick look into history tells me, given the large pile of doodoo we are in (40 years of borrowing from the future combined with a tbtf financial system), we ain't seen nothing yet. Be it inflation, higher taxes or outright confiscation or whether people will be forced to lend their money to the government a ridiculously low rates, the bill is due and the US [and other western economies] will not be able continue to borrow 140B per month.

TonyCoitus's picture

No need to sign.  If you're an American, this step has been eliminated to help serve you better......and keep you in the dark.

mrktwtch2's picture

you cant short treasuries..for at least another year..only when the euro breaks up will you be able to..until then ..keep buying these occasional 3 to 5% pullbacks..

fonzannoon's picture

The stock market today seems to tell me that the fed's mandate going forward is outright purchases of equities.

helping_friendly_book's picture

That is why State Street invented the ETFs. The FRBNY is buying and selling the SPY. I it the only way I can think of. They don't need to buy a bunch of securities, just frontrun some ETF's through their minions at JPM.

max2205's picture

30 yr @ 2.8. Refi @ 3.6

Fuck you Ben!!!

SheepDog-One's picture

10yr CD at .30....FUCK YOU BERNANK!

Meatballs's picture

Sorry guys, Ben is busy fucking you and everybody else. :)

MrJingles's picture

 

So if we want to play the game we can actually make money by borrowing a huge amount of money at a rate less than inflation and live for free.

Only in America bitchez!

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Rates must stay down at all costs and with China and Europe bankrupt the Fed is the only ticket to maintain the purchasing power (in nominal terms) of USTs.  This is why Bernanke must continue to print, leverage his books on his gold reserves (remember his Congressional testimoney when he acted surprised to know he had gold on his books), and be the buyer of last resort, for it is the last resort.

Robslob's picture

 

Emberrasing...I can refinance on a 15 Year Jumbo mortgage for 2.875% 

 

LawsofPhysics's picture

too bad wages actually matter.

yogibear's picture

Bernanke and the Fed will end up being the only buyer. Buying up everything with print money.

Only thing that stops this is for the US dollar to go the way of the British Pound-Sterling. 

Constant counterfeiting and Fed enabling the contunuation of esculating of US deficits.

Vincent Vega's picture

DXY 79.83      Hello Pound-Sterling.

SheepDog-One's picture

Who needs QE when they can just sell $32 billion worth of bullshit bonds to themselves whenever they want?

helping_friendly_book's picture

That is the definition of QE.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm

"But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation."

The words of Ben Shalom Bernanke.

Silversem's picture

We are going to see ongoing QE. There is no way back!.....I am long gold with cfd's.

Dr. Engali's picture

The "markets" are going to shit themselves if Ben does nothing. If he does do something he will need to print a trillion just to prevent a sell on the news.

SheepDog-One's picture

I sure hope thats how it plays out, although Jackson Hole flop yet again didnt do anything. These are just occupied markets run by terrorist manipulators. Rest of the public lulled into complacency like the dumb sheep they are.

yogibear's picture

Complete collapse in confidence in the US dollar (hyperinflation) is the only thing that stops the Federal Reserve. 

Bay of Pigs's picture

All Hail King Doelarr! 79 DXY. LOL.

What a bunch of bullshit this is...calling it Ponzi finance is being too kind.

kennard's picture

the $32 billion 3 year auction just priced at the second lowest yield ever of 3.37%

You read it here.

alfred b.'s picture

 

    Nowadays there is no need for a signature for most credit card  purchases under 100$...just wait in a year and half or 2 that limit will be raised to 500$.     Value of fiat sinking!

     Buy physical gold and silver.

 

 

Racer's picture

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=211351

Stunning....

"The Newest Bank Fraud Scheme ("Risk Hiding")"

"At least seven banks plan to let customers swap lower-rated securities that don’t meet standards in return for a loan of Treasuries or similar holdings that do qualify, a process dubbed “collateral transformation."

helping_friendly_book's picture

Your link asks:

"Why don't we just call it what it is: Legalized accounting fraud."

We already legalized fraud in the system. The biggest being Repurchase Agreements (REPO). If you don't criminalize REPO then what the hell does it matter?

As long as a Bank or Corporation is allowed to cook the books every quarter, or everyday close for banks, how can regulators or investors know any thing?

Cash under my matress losing value to inflation beats the hell out of trusting any accounting system which allows straight up book cooking with repurchase agreements. 

We are in for another catastrophe. There will be one country, probably Germany, that will not stick with the program (monetizing all of your debt) and when everyone else notices all those poor investors will be running for the exit all at the same instant.

The banks and hedge funds can't help but play until the music stops.

It's too late to buy silver for me. I had a position in SLV but, had to sell at $12/share when I had surgery. At least my family has a farm.

The victims will get younger and younger and, one day, will be young and sassy enough to raid the Hamptons for some payback. I look forward to that day.

Urban Redneck's picture

swaps and repos as camouflage for risk is an almost ancient banking accounting gimmick

swaps, repos, and other derivatives for senile-saver-Granny... because there are no bigger fools left amongst the professionals would be a very frightening development

Í thought the Taxachusetts Saviors- Barney Fag and the Lyin` Injun, were supposed to save the American Consumer and Economy from this sort of thing, couple thousand plus pages of legislation for what?

helping_friendly_book's picture

I hear ya'. I'm in the Old Dominion also. 

It seemed so obvious when I found out what a CDS actually was. The answered seemed simple:

If you want a pay out on a CDS you must prove you owned the bond BEFORE the default.

I just feel bad for all the families and individuals suckered into killing each other in all the endless wars of agression I have witnessed in 48 years.

Divide and conquer.

I have been living in a lie for all these years. We all know it is a lie yet most are in denial.

Sad!

Democrats and Republicans are all the same. Lying douche bag politicians.

The internet has, at least, dropped the veil for many to stop denying and see the truth. 

Peace.

q99x2's picture

Costs a lot to rig an election.

helping_friendly_book's picture

Soon cash will become "unavailable" and "unnecessary" because of the advances in banking technology. Direct Deposit will be required and a fee will be charged for withdrawling cash or cashing a check. It is the definition of negative interest.

People with cash will be considered criminals and the cash will be confiscated forthwith. 

Use of the debit card system will become manditory for all transactions.

You will be happy to take 0.33%.

I wrote my senior term paper on 1984 but, I never imagined such sophistication.

We are done here folks. 

Crabshacker's picture

I bought some on e-bay

Haager's picture

...from a dealer in Hong Kong, which you simply forgot to add. Will be shipped asap.