A 33% Minimum Probability Of Criminal Charges Against JP Morgan In Lieborgate?

Tyler Durden's picture

On Friday morning, Jamie Dimon as head of the bank many (well, some: Zero Hedge) expect will be the first casualty when the Liebor scandal finally breaks on US soil, which it will within 2-3 weeks, faced several questions on his Q2 conference call trying to extract more information from the bank as to where it may stand in the Liebor scandal.

This is what he said:

Unidentified Analyst


Hi, two very quick follow-ups. One I just want to make sure on the LIBOR issue. I understand all the things that you can’t talk about mid investigation, but I’m assuming this has been gone on for a while that you’ve had three, six, maybe more months of internal investigations. Is there anything you can tell us and comment on?


Jamie Dimon





John E. McDonald – Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.


But I guess just one more slide that’s on the LIBOR, do you have any sense of how long the issue will overhang on the industry and whether we’ll get some kind of clarity about the investigations over the summer or is it something that could drag on for long time? Any insight in that and when we’re going to get more information on it?


Jamie Dimon


We had no special insight again.




Matt O'Connor – Deutsche Bank Securities


...LIBOR obviously has been in the news quite a bit. If there is anything that you can say or even when will we know what we don't know instead of time-to-time or… 


Jamie Dimon


All I can say is like all of these things, there are a lot of people doing exams, we’ll be open total openings regulators and investigators. And the other thing I’d be a little patient if I were you and not every thing is the same, it’s going to take a while and not all companies are in the same position.



Brennan Hawken – UBS Investment Bank


I don’t know if you can comment on this, but it would be helpful to
know, do you guys have specific controls that separate communications
between derivative traders and the LIBOR rate submission employees?


Michael J. Cavanagh


We are not going to comment anything right there right now.

It appears Jamie was not only not very talkative, but refused to answer questions why by default should have had an answer - i.e., internal controls, which after the discovery 10 minutes prior to the earnigs release that the bank had found a material internal controls weakness vis-a-vis CDS marks, is probably rather critical. Of course, the market being as headline drive as it is, took the lack of further Libor clarity as an "all clear" and send the stock up 6%. That may well have been rather premature. Because as the NYT reports, criminal charges are coming, which may explain JPM's reticence to say much if anything while it is the subject of a multi-year long criminal investigation which is about to break.

From NYT:

As regulators ramp up their global investigation into the manipulation of interest rates, the Justice Department has identified potential criminal wrongdoing by big banks and individuals at the center of the scandal.


The department’s criminal division is building cases against several financial institutions and their employees, including traders at Barclays, the British bank, according to government officials close to the case who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the investigation is continuing. The authorities expect to file charges against at least one bank later this year, one of the officials said.


The prospect of criminal cases is expected to rattle the banking world and provide a new impetus for financial institutions to settle with the authorities. The Justice Department investigation comes on top of private investor lawsuits and a sweeping regulatory inquiry led by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Collectively, the civil and criminal actions could cost the banking industry tens of billions of dollars.


The multiyear investigation has ensnared more than 10 big banks in the United States and abroad. With the prospects of criminal action, several firms, including at least two European institutions, are scrambling to arrange deals, according to lawyers close to the case. In part, they are trying to avoid the public outcry that stemmed from the Barclays case, which prompted the resignation of top executives.



[T]he Libor case presents a potential opportunity for prosecutors. Given the scope of the problems and the number of institutions involved, the rate-rigging investigation could provide a signature moment to hold big banks accountable for their activities during the financial crisis.


“It’s hard to imagine a bigger case than Libor,” said one of the government officials involved in the case.

Now here is the punchline: as the Fed itself reported, at the time of alleged manipulation, there were 16 USD libor Panel banks.

And here one can bet good money, that the Justice Department, long seen as the most corrupt and coopted executive arm (thank you Eric Holder) and about as useless as the SEC, will focus on the US banks members of the USD Libor Panel.

There are three of them:

  • Bank of America
  • Citibank
  • and... JP Morgan

In other words, there is roughly a 33% minimum probability that JPM will soon be ensnared in one of the biggest, more comprehensive cases of collusive and manipulative bank fraud in the history of the banking. And remember: the Fed will throw anyone under the bus simply to redirect attention and anger from where it truly lies: with the academics who cogitate daily in the Marriner Eccles building, where they believe they are more efficient than the entire market when it comes to setting the price of money.

Even JP Morgan.

* * *
Off topic: on the JPM conference call someone who ordinarily would never be allowed to ask a question, did just that. Here is what he said:

Maybe from the perspective of the buy side, a long suffering shareholder and my clients, I’d like to follow-up on Mike Mayo’s question and also reference to KBW report that looked at the potential of splitting off the Chase Consumer Bank with RON credit and having a standalone JPMorgan Commercial bank, investment bank trust and TSS.


And the point being much as the tipping point or actual diseconomies of scale, and even if there are economies of scale, the stock market refuses to acknowledge it in terms of the multiple continuum to come down. And I look at the track record over the past year, so and notwithstanding a great performance relative to a pretty low VaR. but it's still a good performance. But we've had the mortgage servicing issues, mortgage foreclosure issues, and military veteran issues, energy, commodities, sales practices, now that’s inexcusable, just unbelievable CIO debacle, and now potentially LIBOR. And I think about, what has to happen for either you as a management team or you as a board to finally say, we are a great institution and we own a lot of great businesses, but we have reached that point where we are too big to manage, and in the interest of our shareholders there’s a different corporate structure that would better serve your owners. Thank you.

Someone gets it. But not Jamie Dimon. His response why he is perfectly happy being a TBTF bank with great economies of scale, and even greater embedded fragility.

Jamie Dimon: Right, I would respectively say that, yeah certainly the cross-sell is very obvious, and that's why we’re not look at separating into numerous companies, but I'm just wondering at what point it does become more apparent that there are diseconomies and is it potential that, is it possible to have CIO in part of a smaller institution, it would have gotten the management look that it required....You could have argued the other way, there is a huge source of strength that helps growing this company, do all these norms and do best during the involvement, do all these wonderful things, CIO was a mistake, and we’re sorry.

Yes, and the next time JPM blows up, we will all be sorry.

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vmromk's picture

You wanna recapitalize J.P. Morgan ?

Simple, sell tickets to Jamie Dimon's ass raping every weekend in prison.


Biosci's picture

You wanna recapitalize J.P. Morgan ?

No.  But I'm sure some other good use could be found for the money.

Bananamerican's picture

Good piece but...

"Jamie was not only not very talkative, but refused to answer questions why by default should have had an answer - i.e., internal controls, which after the discovery 10 minutes prior to the earnigs release that the bank had found a material internal controls weakness vis-a-vis CDS marks, is probably rather critical. Of course, the market being as headline drive as it is..."

this is what happens when you let Ernesto Durden write the copy...

Dimon was similarly eloquent when he said,

"You could have argued the other way, there is a huge source of strength that helps growing this company, do all these norms and do best during the involvement, do all these wonderful things, CIO was a mistake, and we’re sorry"

Spoken, like the motherfucking inarticulate, remorseless, criminal he is; with the complete confidence that the fix is STILL in...because it is.

FED, SEC, Justice, will do shit about it....Dimon, like Diamond, knows where the bodies are buried....

L'chaim y'all


monoloco's picture

They only need the investigation to set the amount of the mordida, there will be no prosecution beyond possibly a few obscure clerks. Maybe they can blame the whole thing on Larry the copyroom guy.

Silver Bug's picture

Sadly I wouldn't hold your breath too long, waiting for criminal charges.



vast-dom's picture

exactly. and of course JPM and SP will keep floating up.....where is my SP at 800? these last few years are Post-Ponzi as supported by criminal Fed levitations: think about it: a legalized Ponzi that held up the entire banking Ponzi sector thanks to criminals like Bernankzi and his masters! And we expect Dimon to get punished? Best case: golden parachute.

DeadFred's picture

Charges later this year? Hard to believe, Holder doesn't get tossed into the streets until January at the earliest. The ones who control the banks also control the Fed so JPM doesn't get tossed under the bus unless there is some serious shark-on-shark fighting among the elite. I continue to wonder what is going on under the surface. It's been a long time since I believed in the Easter Bunny so I have a hard time accepting that the MSM and government just took honesty pills and suddenly realized they should start doing their jobs.

Every crisis has at least one primary dealer fed to the wolves. Maybe this investigation will show which one is on the menu for this fall's market crash. I'd bet on BAC or Citi though.

Goner's picture

While I have zero ideas that Holder or Obama will do whats right and in the best interest of the county. I think its more likely criminal charges would be filed by them vs Mittens (if he wins) Follow the money, you get the Government you pay for.


MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

"a sweeping regulatory inquiry led by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission."

The only "sweeping" Gollum and his douches ever do is "under the carpet"...

monoloco's picture

I think the heading of this article must be a typo, it should be 3.3%

loveyajimbo's picture

Jamie and Lloyd and their cancerous cabal all deserve to be put in a dungeon for life... but with Holder, Shapiro and gensler doing their 3 stooges act, the chances are more like 2%.  Break up these corrupt mafia banks!

Sisyphus's picture

Off topic: Anybody know what happened to Chindit13? Doesn't post here anymore.

i-dog's picture

The CIA moved him to some even remoter location than Burma - where he has no internet access.

Max Fischer's picture

You can find him at:


Wait a few days, and you'll see him.

akak's picture

Well, that is perfectly stalker-creepy.

Thank you.

Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Sad thing is, they didn't just manipulate Libor.  They manipulate EVERYTHING!  Remember the oil they bought when Obama released oil from the SPR?  Are they using that to heat their offices?

Popo's picture

Sorry for the cynicism, but the NYT is f*cking dreaming.  Who do they think runs the world?  The US Government?   The justice system?  Or Jamie Dimon and the financial mafia.

The NYT is wonderfully naive and unrealistic.  Bless their little hearts for their innocent understanding of power.  Probably one of the main reasons it took me so long to understand the world is that I used to be a regular reader of the Times.   Now I can safely say that they are clueless about both politics and economics.  (Krugman doubly so in both categories).  They are nothing more than a mouthpiece for the Marxist power brokers on the left side of the Congressional aisle.  And they cannot possibly bring themselves to imagine that the politicians they trust so deeply are operating out of pure self-interest.

But back to Dimon:

Compared to Dimon,  Corzine was a small fish -- and he gave his middle finger to the US justice system and the entire world magically forgot that he had stolen nearly a billion dollars.  Think Dimon is going anywhere?   Come on.

Dimon's going to get a bonus when this is all done, and a few people at the NYT will lose their jobs.

Sofa King's picture

Normally, I would agree but I would think that JD might have pissed somebody off with that Presidential Cufflink thing.  Now, call me crazy, but them cufflinks were a message that he was the big swinging dick in the country and, well, that might not be the case.  Time will tell, but it just seems like he was untouchable before and shortly after that hearing but the air around him turned nasty after those photos started making the rounds.

Winston Churchill's picture

He can be disposed of like a used condom by the real 'owners'.

Jamie  Dimon is a pawn to be sacrificed.

A rich pawn,but still a pawn.

veyron's picture

Hey I just met you, and this is crazy, but here's my cuff links, so pardon maybe?

bigdumbnugly's picture

The NYT is wonderfully naive and unrealistic.  Bless their little hearts for their innocent understanding of power.


maybe true with some of the younger bubblehead writers but you don't think the brass there is in any way naive...   they're just pumping out the bilge as directed.

AlaricBalth's picture

I'll see your New York Times and raise you "The Economist".

In this weeks issue, in an article discussing JPM's recent earnings call, the following was written:

"Its troubles notwithstanding (and ignoring an accounting shift tied to a restatement of the results for the first quarter), JPMorgan earned $4.6 billion."

So I presume we are now calling the re-pricing of fraudulently marked Level 3 assets of a banks entire portfolio, an "accounting shift".

What a joke. Here is the article. Try not to ruin your screen.


shovelhead's picture

99% of the Economist reminds me of medieval Church theologians arguing about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

All very useful if you believe the Church dogma. Not so much otherwise.

Statist true believers almost to a man.

WillyGroper's picture

<<<<<<<So I presume we are now calling the re-pricing of fraudulently marked Level 3 assets of a banks entire portfolio, an "accounting shift".

"accounting shit"----no f in it.

Yellowhoard's picture

The NYT is not naive.

They and the banks are one in the same.

They are throwing gorilla dust in the air.

Nothing will come of this.

Ever wonder who benefits the most from the Times editorial page?

They promote constantly growing government spending which is financed by their brothers down the street.

It's not complicated.

IMA5U's picture

Jamie Dimon, The New York Times, Boaz Weinstein, Goldman Sachs, etc...


Are all elite members of The Tribe that get cozy with each other and plays by a different set of rules than everyone else.


Jamie should be fired, fined tarred and feathered but he has Washington and New York City in his back pocket.  He even has hedge funds like Blue Mountain come to his aid and help him upwind his potentially catastrophic Fail Whale Fiasco that could have helped tear apart the financial system.


I wonder what former JP Morgan Alumni Blue Mountain will get in return for inflicing a little pain to make money, but not a lot, to help prevent a repeat of last year's summer swoon?  There had to be some kind of backroom exchange of favors, either on Wall Street or D.C.




Everybodys All American's picture

The NYT is the mouthpiece of the propaganda machine.  Oh sure just like every thing there is always a little gray area but make no mistake this is whether you want to call it fascism or socialism the narrative emanates from this local. The elite media's role in this cannot be overstated no less than the former Soviet Pravda's role in their communism.

There is no way on earth that Jamie Dimon is going to have an investigation on his bank. One reason. Obama's re-election check clears through JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon will get the shakedown.

MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

NYT - Part of the Problem, not Part of the Solution

Acet's picture

But they are more efficient than the entire market at setting the price of money, just look at the last 4 years: central banks have effectivelly become the money markets.

The question of "Are they efficient at setting the right price of money?" has a whole different answer. But then again, that's why most of us here are short on paper fiat and long on stuff that retains value through a full blown economic collapse ...

FieldingMellish's picture

"It’s hard to imagine a bigger case than Libor” 

There is probably a dozen more out there that are at least as bad. Gold, silver, equities... but again, can't touch anything that will taint those Ivy League wonks.


Winston Churchill's picture

Don't forget the little matter of the $12 trillion RMBS frauds.

But TOTUS assures us that no crimes were committed,so

it doesn't count of course.

tmosley's picture

The Fed has known they would throw JPM under the bus for some time, and they have been offloading their silver short position onto "small specs" (ie the Fed).  Even more important than that is the fact that the Fed has failed to offload that positions onto any other bank, implying that there is something severely wrong with the entire sector.  This scandal seems likely to be "it".  I wouldn't be surprised to see an in depth review of the books of all of the banks.  The Fed simply can't allow its silver manipulation to be uncovered by a real investigation, so they have taken it on themselves.

This appears to be the bridge to the endgame.

chunga's picture

Man I hope you're right.

bigdumbnugly's picture

trying to follow that but the first sentence in particular is kind of circular.

you are saying the fed is the small specs???

tmosley's picture

Yes, just like they are the "household" sector in treasuries.

MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

and the majority of "Indirect Buyers"

bigdumbnugly's picture

never occured to me to think of small spec interest to be high enough but maybe so?

if this is so (fed adopting jpm's load) where do you see this going?

tmosley's picture

This is a recent phemomenon.  Turd has been making a big deal out of it, claiming that the small specs are being set up, but I don't think there is enough small money in the market to take up that position, especially given that historically the small specs have been longs.  But then, the longs are "long gone" after MF Global.  I can't think of any other group that would or COULD hide their market interactions in this way other than the Fed.

Where is this going?  My guess is a major audit of all of the banks.  I can't predict what will happen beyond that, because I don't know the extent of the horrors that will be discovered there, though I would bet that they are worse than anyone suspects, though I would bet that once they see how bad things are, the pols will have another Paulson moment, even without a Paulson to threaten them, and they will cover it up, at which point the Fed may start releasing the silver short position back to the bank (I would suspect that the banks will all be merged into fewer entities at this point--probably just one will be left). 

It is only a matter of how many more straw bales we can throw on this camel's back.

As for the silver position, I have no idea.  This is unprecedented, if it is actually happening the way I think it is.  The Fed probbly doesn't have the experience that the banks have, and they don't have a limit to their working funds like JPM did, so whatever happens, I would expect it to be really, REALLY weird.  Prices that are totally decoupled from reality.  Probably increased volatility.  Potentially a paper price that falls in an unrealistic manner.  They might get cute and take it down to $5.  Of course, there won't be any available at that price.

Or I could be totally wrong, and it really is a bunch of small spec money, and those small specs really are setting themselves up to get totally crushed, and we will see the paper price rise to new highs for the year before resuming normal manipulation.

Or the whole situation could change at any time thanks to a currently unknown unknown.

bigdumbnugly's picture

hmm.  i will try to find small spec interest for over the last 10 years or so.  wonder if it has  increased noticeably (particularly over the past year or so)?

maybe also as it relates to commercial movements.

if u find this info first post please.   ty.

tmosley's picture

Here is the thread where Turd noted the process, and I first had my "hideous thought": http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3983/three-items-overnight?page=2

If you want to find data beyond what is there and in the linked articles, I would suggest looking to Harvey Organ's blog, as he has been keeping close track of that for years and years.  Ignore his commentary, and focus on the numbers.

bigdumbnugly's picture

exactly what i was doing (h. organ archives).

i'm finding its going to take some serious charting of that info to be certain of anything i'm afraid though.   not seeing anything obvious as yet from it but just started.

will read the tfmetals link.  ty.

Heroic Couplet's picture

When the financial sector collapse comes down to JP Morgan v. Goldman Sachs, I see GS as the victor, hands down.

Now, when it comes to Occupy Wall Street v. Golman Sachs and civil war in America, I hope GS has some rubber stretchable necks.

Hmm...'s picture

 the Fed will throw anyone under the bus simply to redirect attention and anger from where it truly lies: with the academics who cogitate daily in the Marriner Eccles building, where they believe they are more efficient than the entire market when it comes to setting the price of money.

Fist of all, I am NOT defending the Fed.  I hate them will all my life.

That said, it is somewhat rich to include this line in the midst of an article that shows that the private market (individual private banks submitting LIBOR to a private entity) was completely rigged.

I'd rather have the Fed Funds Rate compared to LIBOR.  (that said, I refuse to take on any debt for any reason, nor have any investments that have anything at all to do with these fuckers... but if forced at knife point I'd use the FFR).

With the FFR, we all know it is rigged and completely made up by academics.  However, we all know this, AND the "true" FFR is transparent.  Everybody sees the same FFR number.

Completely unlike LIBOR where the number is fabricated in exactly the same way as the FFR, however we have assymetrical knowledge of the "True" rate, where the banks know the true LIBOR and customers get just the lie. 

Today's financial markets are no longer manageable.  Period.  By a private entity or by the government or by a Quasi priave/govt entity like a Central Bank.

We will have to abandon our current type of market and go back to a much smaller scale local economic model. 

Of course, it will take depression and war to get there.  I know many ZHers yearn for the transformation, but many of us simply won't make it no matter how much guns or gold we have.  (we should have guns and gold, but it's not going to be enough for a fair number of us).

World War 3.  With nukes.  Fun.

Snakeeyes's picture

I agree. the Fed wants to divert attention away from itself to ANYONE. They manipulated us into a corner where nothing works.


I am Jobe's picture

Greatest Minds is what they say....

Elmer Fudd's picture

Yep, oh please spare me from the "there's gonna be a perp walk"

Its almost as bad as "we're not gonna print any more money and give it to Jaimie and his friends" thing.


I am Jobe's picture

Crooks Protecting Crooks

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Tell Congress to Strike Sec. 733 from Appropriations & HR 872 from Farm Bill



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I am Jobe's picture

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