50K NFP Miss Whisper?

Tyler Durden's picture

T minus 40 minutes and counting to NFP. Here is what the latest whisper number is, and whether "bad is bad" today, or "really bad is great."

From Citi's Steven Englander

How will risk react on payrolls? Last words

 

US 10yr bond yields are now 9bps lower than they were at 8:15am yesterday, with just over half the drop on the back of weak US data in NY time. In the past a rough rule of thumb has been five bps on the 10yr is equivalent to a 50k miss on payrolls, so it seems likely that the consensus has shifted somewhat to the left. We would judge that expectations are at least 15k lower in the FX market, driven by weak ADP and Claims. So Citi's 135k NFP expectation may now be close to consensus, rather than at the low end.

 

In terms of market reaction we have seen USD bought over the last 24 hours on weak US data, weak Chinese data and weak European data, so it seems likely that it will be bought again if payrolls disappoint.  There is some debate as to whether a strong number would strengthen the USD on the view of the US as a safe haven, but we would expect on the first instance that stronger than expected USD would lead to the USDS being sold on the first instance. If the last two days are any guide on a weak number you would buy USD or JPY and sell MXN, CAD and other EM and G10 commodity currencies. 

 

A last question is how bad a number it would take to put QE back on the radar screen. Most analysts do not expect additional stimulus largely on the view that the global crisis has taken US rates down further than any QE would be expected at this point. However, it seems possible that a combination of weak headline month and downward revisions could re-write history sufficiently to make QE a runner – but this is an outside chance.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Unemployment Bitchezzzz!!!

ndotken's picture

NFP data only matters to the algo-bots ... the rest of us know that this bullshit number will be revised downward within 30 days

bdc63's picture

50K NFP number would be ATROCIOUS ... clearly the stock market would rally HUGE ...

ejmoosa's picture

And sharply.  Even with this bleak number, they are claiming that year over job growth for the twelve months ending May 2012 is actually higher than the twelve months ending April 2012.  I know that is flat out wrong.

aztec two step's picture

What the hell does that mean if anything?

U6 Alabamian's picture

Already there Jerry, already there.

larry david's picture

fuck you jamie dimon!!!

LeonardoFibonacci's picture

If Dimon leaves/forced out of JPM, his pay package will be $100 million, thank you Amerika for my retirement.  He will probably go to Bal Harbour Miami and buy at the St Regis condo, penthouse is selling for $25 million.  Pocket change for this guy!!!!

ndotken's picture

I hope Jamie's face is eaten off by a naked zombie.

bdc63's picture

never happen ... zombies don't eat their own ...

disabledvet's picture

"we were stupid" sounds expensive. More than "we're taking the Lear Jet keys" kind I might add. Needless to say the name on the bank won't be Dimon. Dare I say Rockefeller as well?

Ancona's picture

Free circus tickets and unicorn rides for everyone!

DormRoom's picture

Beveridge curve indicates printing is not helping. 

 

"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." --Albert Einstein

 

Like in WWII when the government could rationalize using the Hiroshima bomb to 'save future lives' by annililating hundred of thousands of present lives, QE/LTRO is another instance of logical insanity.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Old Al also wrote something about relativity if I recall. QE helping? Depends who you are.

disabledvet's picture

"those were American lives being saved" as well. "You wanna War you got one phucker."

RyanW525's picture

Where's my Spiderman Towel???

Shizzmoney's picture

Fuck a Spiderman Towel; this bank in Spain is giving out free Flat Screen TVs with every direct deposit signup!

http://t.co/3nwufhwt

Soon, banks will beg people to put money in so bad, they'll be offering beer, hookers, and handjobs.

Byte Me's picture

Whatever the figure

It'll be Mythical as usual.

EscapeKey's picture

Place your bets on the next Keynesian monetary stimulus now;

a) Roads to nowhere!

b) Krugman's alien invasion preparation!

c) Global thermonuclear war!

 

a growing concern's picture

Maybe we'll get a nice asteroid headed our way?  Or a combination of b and c?

midgetrannyporn's picture

the chairsatan will give bank maggots on wall street a bonus if the unemployment number is bad. that should fix the problem.

realtick's picture

The Unemployment Rate chart can be analyzed just like a stock index.

Here's what it's saying - the UNRATE is going much, much higher from here:

http://i50.tinypic.com/k2z8sn.png

MFL8240's picture

Who the fuck believes anything out of this group?

cnhedge2's picture

it's pretty hard to have qe at this stage.

Q&A on the European Debt Redemption Fund
http://www.cnhedge.com/thread-6595-1-1.html

JackT's picture

I'm calling 120,000

 

Edit:

Chrysler says US sales rise 30% on strong demand for Ram pickups and Jeeps

 

I'm calling 170,000

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Right.  Cause the cost of gas has been down for what, 2 weeks?  Sure makes me want to run out and buy a guzzlin' Ram!

distopiandreamboy's picture

Only an Econ PhD could provide such astute forecasts.

otto skorzeny's picture

because with gas so cheap at $3.80 a gallon and so much construction going on you can see why dodge is selling so many 10 mpg ram penis extenders(I'll take mine in black- no? what?)

disabledvet's picture

Mine's a Mack..."and the burn rate is about 5000 a week." make that "4000 a week."

bdc63's picture

30% sounds good ... except analysts were expecting it to be 45%

JackT's picture

It's go time...I'm holding my breath..for at least 30 seconds

caimen garou's picture

hope and change,hope and change,here we go again! we hope we have enough change to eat today after standing all day in the unemployment line.

fonzannoon's picture

The next QE is going to be used to buy equities.

ss123's picture

A bad number can be blamed on spring fever.

Crabshacker's picture

I'm so un-employed I don't even count anymore..

 And I"m calling 145,000 (to be Revised) and not counting me.  69k

virgilcaine's picture

Miss it noonan...

otto skorzeny's picture

look for any small beat and a huge rip upward on light volume to be followed by a light afternoon selloff and then its back to Europe on Mon. rinse. repeat.

ChrisDG74's picture

The number is.....69k.

OUCH!

caimen garou's picture

wow, will you look at the dow futures!

JackT's picture

OMG 69k!

Time to unseal the bunker... son of a...

disabledvet's picture

This isn't about US jobs directly at all. This is about how an imploded US consumer can afford anything. And of course...HE CAN'T! PRICE WARS BITCHEZ!

virgilcaine's picture

QE is the disease.. price inflation, no jobs.. falling wages soaring energy prices! ye more QE!  The Retailers can't pass their costs onto the sheeple... Game Over folks!  80 % of the sheeple based  Economy is retail consumption.  Now the Big Corps are going to get hit with the rising USD destroying profits and sales.. what a fiasco.

Nobody For President's picture

It is going to be an interesting day...

Where the hell is MDB when we need him?

I'm long TZA - ride 'em cowboy!