50K NFP Miss Whisper?

Tyler Durden's picture


T minus 40 minutes and counting to NFP. Here is what the latest whisper number is, and whether "bad is bad" today, or "really bad is great."

From Citi's Steven Englander

How will risk react on payrolls? Last words


US 10yr bond yields are now 9bps lower than they were at 8:15am yesterday, with just over half the drop on the back of weak US data in NY time. In the past a rough rule of thumb has been five bps on the 10yr is equivalent to a 50k miss on payrolls, so it seems likely that the consensus has shifted somewhat to the left. We would judge that expectations are at least 15k lower in the FX market, driven by weak ADP and Claims. So Citi's 135k NFP expectation may now be close to consensus, rather than at the low end.


In terms of market reaction we have seen USD bought over the last 24 hours on weak US data, weak Chinese data and weak European data, so it seems likely that it will be bought again if payrolls disappoint.  There is some debate as to whether a strong number would strengthen the USD on the view of the US as a safe haven, but we would expect on the first instance that stronger than expected USD would lead to the USDS being sold on the first instance. If the last two days are any guide on a weak number you would buy USD or JPY and sell MXN, CAD and other EM and G10 commodity currencies. 


A last question is how bad a number it would take to put QE back on the radar screen. Most analysts do not expect additional stimulus largely on the view that the global crisis has taken US rates down further than any QE would be expected at this point. However, it seems possible that a combination of weak headline month and downward revisions could re-write history sufficiently to make QE a runner – but this is an outside chance.

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Fri, 06/01/2012 - 07:59 | 2483058 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Unemployment Bitchezzzz!!!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:03 | 2483070 ndotken
ndotken's picture

NFP data only matters to the algo-bots ... the rest of us know that this bullshit number will be revised downward within 30 days

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:21 | 2483131 bdc63
bdc63's picture

50K NFP number would be ATROCIOUS ... clearly the stock market would rally HUGE ...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 09:07 | 2483463 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

And sharply.  Even with this bleak number, they are claiming that year over job growth for the twelve months ending May 2012 is actually higher than the twelve months ending April 2012.  I know that is flat out wrong.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:07 | 2483083 aztec two step
aztec two step's picture

What the hell does that mean if anything?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:11 | 2483095 U6 Alabamian
U6 Alabamian's picture

Already there Jerry, already there.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 07:59 | 2483059 larry david
larry david's picture

fuck you jamie dimon!!!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:04 | 2483071 LeonardoFibonacci
LeonardoFibonacci's picture

If Dimon leaves/forced out of JPM, his pay package will be $100 million, thank you Amerika for my retirement.  He will probably go to Bal Harbour Miami and buy at the St Regis condo, penthouse is selling for $25 million.  Pocket change for this guy!!!!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:21 | 2483130 ndotken
ndotken's picture

I hope Jamie's face is eaten off by a naked zombie.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:22 | 2483134 bdc63
bdc63's picture

never happen ... zombies don't eat their own ...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:29 | 2483170 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"we were stupid" sounds expensive. More than "we're taking the Lear Jet keys" kind I might add. Needless to say the name on the bank won't be Dimon. Dare I say Rockefeller as well?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:00 | 2483060 Ancona
Ancona's picture

Free circus tickets and unicorn rides for everyone!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:02 | 2483061 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Beveridge curve indicates printing is not helping. 


"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." --Albert Einstein


Like in WWII when the government could rationalize using the Hiroshima bomb to 'save future lives' by annililating hundred of thousands of present lives, QE/LTRO is another instance of logical insanity.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:06 | 2483079 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Old Al also wrote something about relativity if I recall. QE helping? Depends who you are.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:31 | 2483177 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"those were American lives being saved" as well. "You wanna War you got one phucker."

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:00 | 2483062 RyanW525
RyanW525's picture

Where's my Spiderman Towel???

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:19 | 2483119 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Fuck a Spiderman Towel; this bank in Spain is giving out free Flat Screen TVs with every direct deposit signup!


Soon, banks will beg people to put money in so bad, they'll be offering beer, hookers, and handjobs.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:02 | 2483067 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

Whatever the figure

It'll be Mythical as usual.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:03 | 2483072 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Place your bets on the next Keynesian monetary stimulus now;

a) Roads to nowhere!

b) Krugman's alien invasion preparation!

c) Global thermonuclear war!


Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:22 | 2483132 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Maybe we'll get a nice asteroid headed our way?  Or a combination of b and c?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:04 | 2483073 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

the chairsatan will give bank maggots on wall street a bonus if the unemployment number is bad. that should fix the problem.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:05 | 2483077 realtick
realtick's picture

The Unemployment Rate chart can be analyzed just like a stock index.

Here's what it's saying - the UNRATE is going much, much higher from here:


Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:06 | 2483082 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Who the fuck believes anything out of this group?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:08 | 2483086 cnhedge2
cnhedge2's picture

it's pretty hard to have qe at this stage.

Q&A on the European Debt Redemption Fund

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:15 | 2483091 JackT
JackT's picture

I'm calling 120,000



Chrysler says US sales rise 30% on strong demand for Ram pickups and Jeeps


I'm calling 170,000

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:22 | 2483133 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Right.  Cause the cost of gas has been down for what, 2 weeks?  Sure makes me want to run out and buy a guzzlin' Ram!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:22 | 2483136 distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

Only an Econ PhD could provide such astute forecasts.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:24 | 2483145 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

because with gas so cheap at $3.80 a gallon and so much construction going on you can see why dodge is selling so many 10 mpg ram penis extenders(I'll take mine in black- no? what?)

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:34 | 2483217 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Mine's a Mack..."and the burn rate is about 5000 a week." make that "4000 a week."

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:25 | 2483150 bdc63
bdc63's picture

30% sounds good ... except analysts were expecting it to be 45%

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:30 | 2483174 JackT
JackT's picture

It's go time...I'm holding my breath..for at least 30 seconds

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:11 | 2483096 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

hope and change,hope and change,here we go again! we hope we have enough change to eat today after standing all day in the unemployment line.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:13 | 2483098 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The next QE is going to be used to buy equities.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:13 | 2483099 ss123
ss123's picture

A bad number can be blamed on spring fever.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:32 | 2483104 Crabshacker
Crabshacker's picture

I'm so un-employed I don't even count anymore..

 And I"m calling 145,000 (to be Revised) and not counting me.  69k

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:24 | 2483147 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Miss it noonan...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:26 | 2483154 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

look for any small beat and a huge rip upward on light volume to be followed by a light afternoon selloff and then its back to Europe on Mon. rinse. repeat.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:32 | 2483187 ChrisDG74
ChrisDG74's picture

The number is.....69k.


Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:32 | 2483188 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

wow, will you look at the dow futures!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:34 | 2483195 JackT
JackT's picture

OMG 69k!

Time to unseal the bunker... son of a...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:36 | 2483236 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

This isn't about US jobs directly at all. This is about how an imploded US consumer can afford anything. And of course...HE CAN'T! PRICE WARS BITCHEZ!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:55 | 2483346 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

QE is the disease.. price inflation, no jobs.. falling wages soaring energy prices! ye more QE!  The Retailers can't pass their costs onto the sheeple... Game Over folks!  80 % of the sheeple based  Economy is retail consumption.  Now the Big Corps are going to get hit with the rising USD destroying profits and sales.. what a fiasco.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 09:24 | 2483581 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

It is going to be an interesting day...

Where the hell is MDB when we need him?

I'm long TZA - ride 'em cowboy!

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