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51 Months After The Start Of The Recession, Here Is The Report Card

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Recovery? What Recovery? 4 years after central banks have progressively injected over $7 trillion in liquidity into the global markets (and thus, by Fed logic, the economy), and who knows how many trillion in fiscal aid has been misallocated, to halt the Second Great Depression which officially started in December 2007, the US "recovery" is the weakest in modern US history! How many more trillions will have to be printed (and monetized) before the central planners realize that fighting mean reversion by using debt to defeat recore debt, just doesnt't work? Our guess - lots.

Incidentally, the US has now generated 3 million jobs since the trough of the recession in September 2010, until which point it had previously lost 8 million. Unfortunately, since the real labor force has grown by 4.6 million over the same period, or at the conventionally accepeted 90,000 labor pool entrants per month for 51 months, despite what the BLS may say, because America is after all growing, this means that the Obama administration has created a negative 1.6 million jobs net of demographics, which in turn have cost the US a modest $5.1 trillion in new debt, or an even modest $3.1 million in debt for every job lost.

Chart 1 - the current "recovery" in the context of all previous ones:

 

Chart 2 - Min, Max and Average... and now

 

Chart 3 - in bar chart format

 

Chart 4 - There is good news: 16 quarters after the start of the recession, US output has turned positive. Just barely.

Source: Minneapolis Fed

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Sat, 04/07/2012 - 13:45 | 2324389 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Max Fischer:

Actually, the FED is the problem. THE problem. So let me guess. You are really, smart, right? So I should listen to what you say, right? So I should accept coupons with "floating value," (shall we say) as money. If I don't, BAD THINGS WILL HAPPEN, right? Like exports will...er, imports, uh, the ah...Let me take another wild guess. Some guy gets to decide what the purchasing power of my coupons are. This guy operates in secret. No audit. Ok, can you cover this again for me? I mean I know you are really smart, but I'm just not following. Can you explain how this "coupon system" is good for me? By the way I don't care what Iceland did or does. Just explain this floating value for money thing.

It's good for me HOW?


Wed, 04/11/2012 - 19:04 | 2336276 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

That's nonsense. Iceland didn't need rates up OR foreign interference / raping. Central banks only ruin things, along with fractional reserve.

We need the Fed to die or we are all murdered. The Fed doesn't do anything to help any one of us. Ever.

Unilateral disarmament is THE BEST POSSIBLE Future too and I hope it happens very quickly. It won't but it SHOULD.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 17:50 | 2323399 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

The Scorpion and The Frog.

Never stopped 'em before.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 19:34 | 2323637 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

That whining noise is the sound of ten thousand lear jets warming up for takeoff to the Caymans. Time to get out of Dodge...

I can't wait to see the day they all take a sickie at once.We'll just call it "Conspicuous by their absence". Shame we'll have to put all those guillotines back in storage.Oh well..

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 20:00 | 2323702 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Actually, Paraguay, in the Paso de Patria area. The Bushes, Rev. Moon, the Jesuits, the Queen of England, lots of .0004%'ers.

Lots of water, oil, and drum roll please . . . . No extradition treaties!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 21:05 | 2323833 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

Paraguay is the base for a 3 letter agency in SA.
You`ll be soooo save there.

Shit, these guys know me , I had more than a beer with them.

Go get me, I`m sooo scared...

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 20:16 | 2323734 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Smartest guys in the room probably have their stuff tucked away in some other country and have their bets made on the parasite dying.

They're just showing up so nobody notices.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 14:20 | 2322762 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Well Land O Goshen Max--------you have an uncanny knack for stating the obvious. 

Now can you enlighten us on why the USSA is no longer an industrial power house?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 17:08 | 2323320 Kayman
Kayman's picture

I have it on good authority (Alan and Ben) that you do not need an industrial base when you have a printing machine.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 18:24 | 2323483 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Big Dick Cheney said deficits don't matter. Glad that's solved.

I'm so happy, now I'm going to grab my Big Dick and . . .

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 15:17 | 2323034 economicminor
economicminor's picture

Thirdly, this is the fist US recession due to the consumer being overly indebted...

No amount of printing and giving it to the top of the pyramid will stabilize the base...

Any new monetization needs to go to the 99% and not the 1%

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 17:44 | 2323351 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

"Any new monetization needs to go to the 99% and not the 1%"

Not without being laundered through the TBTF fraud syndicate first. 

Leverage is king.  Not a chance the 99% get a fucking thing without giving up dogma (like Freedom, or privacy) or dog food.

Face it, the US is not vigilant, while boomers eat their young Crime Inc has taken over.  America is a lawless fascist wasteland.

Does fascism have anything to do with charity or distribution?

NO FUCKING WAY!  TAKE TAKE TAKE!  FUCK THE POOR!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 21:19 | 2323868 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

"Does fascism have anything to do with charity or distribution?"

Yes , socialist troll.

But since you are one of them envious uber-fascists ,
well, enough said...

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 17:21 | 2323338 docj
docj's picture

First of all, none of the prior recessions were remotely close in severity to the one we just experienced.

And if I call bullshit on that, how are you going to argue differently? By all accounts the collapse in 1920 was far worse than was the 2007 recession. And the 1981 recession was at least as severe by all qualitative measures.

No argument on the second point, but that argues against the idiocy being put forth by Benron/Ochumpchange (and by Dubya before him), not for it.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 18:10 | 2323444 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture

 

 

1920 is not on any chart listed above.

The recession of 1981 was NOT EVEN CLOSE to the ongoing crisis that began in 2007.  Perhaps your individual experience was different, but by all metrics this most recent financial crisis was the WORST since the Great Depression.  All metrics support this.

Max Fischer, Civis Mundi

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 18:13 | 2323451 blueridgeviews
blueridgeviews's picture

This report looks like it does because we still haven't gotr the bad investment out of the system.  Along with that the Obismal Administration has done everything it could to help out it's voting base and nothing to help out the country as a whole. The largest looting of Americans is in progress right now with this administration and the damage it is doing to the future generations should be cause for impeachment.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:03 | 2322465 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

i wanna know what i should due to protect me and my family during the global collapse.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:20 | 2322516 machinegear
machinegear's picture

AR15.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 15:54 | 2323158 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

if he's at this level after more than 85 weeks reading and posting here, one can only hope that his "family" isn't quite so sound alseep or that one of their neighbors understands the situ and can help

telling him to get an assault rifle, altho a very popular answer here, may actually do more harm than good for a jackass like this;  perhaps not everyone who has the ideation:  "global collapse!  how protect?" should be immediately directed to buy a firearm!

certain people can't be helped;  that isn't your fault or problem;  but you are wasting time and energy trying to help them, no matter how many "popular answers" you may "know"

imo, this guy needs to learn to take his morning dump somewhere else;

you wanna waste yer time trying to get losers up to speed, i would at least suggest waiting to see if this is genuine epiphany;  just keep yer eye on him

you weren't here when fuk_u_shima went 4-banger;  we could barely write about it and what it meant, there were so MANY trolls and "moles" challenging, attacking, falsifying, deflecting.  24/7 week after week after week

this is zH, son; and this is a string about the fuking economy and how shitty it is really doing, and how we can tell more about this

this is a major propaganda war in our lives and "media" and tyler has a "command" position in it.  he wrote this piece from minneapolisFed data.  it is an important study, imo about economic reality

therefore, i can surmiZe that the guy who is tying us up, here, really does NOT want tyler's theses to be the subjects of our dialogue.  possibility?

this is exactly what "resident trolls" do when they want to derail something:  they pretend they need help and ask a question even you can relate to

this isn't faceFuk, dude.  get freaking real, ok?  if you can't help reacting to the wunnerful trolls here,  you're probably gonna wash out

 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 16:48 | 2323265 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

TROLL JOUSTING!

GO, SLEWIE!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 16:57 | 2323288 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

c-mon slewie,  its Friday.  a simple "If you have to ask the question we can't help you." would have sufficed..

 

 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 17:11 | 2323314 fuu
fuu's picture

"perhaps not everyone who has the ideation:  "global collapse!  how protect?" should be immediately directed to buy a firearm!"

 

Might help thin out the troll herd. So much fodder for them these days even the weak sickly ones prosper. He's been a "gold r a bubble" poster since 2010.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 18:09 | 2323441 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

that styooopid mofo who started this moronic bullshit seems to be be partying w/ elvis, now...

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 23:49 | 2325526 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

The problem is you guys are fucking retarded. I live in a major city and carring around an ar-15 would make me a target. I believe collapse like argentina, the major cities would be saved; and a 9mm pistol would be best; i also think getting the fuck out is better, than staying and fighting. i like the aikido approach.

so when i ask, i'm asking for real info... like how to start a farm, basic tools, build your own house. i'm trying to figure out how it will happen; how those in command will defend, etc.

talking shit, and playing macho, is for those who are easy kills. i'm a daoist, i try to live in the yin, and restrict my yang. and glorifying weapons is just retarded.

oh yeah, gas will be non-existant, so, land close to the city sould be better than in the middle of nowhere; but, i digress.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 17:15 | 2323329 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Geez,  Slewie,

I thought for sure you were going to tell him to stock up on rat poison.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:34 | 2322552 OMG
Fri, 04/06/2012 - 14:37 | 2322824 Floordawg
Floordawg's picture

No offense, but that collection is a little too "redneck" for most experienced operators. I know, they still go "BANG" and all, and that's fine and true, but If you want to do some serious "operating" a little closer to the tip of the spear realm, search around a place like militarymorons.com to get a little more up to speed. It's a good start.

My names floordawg... and I'm a gun snob.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 14:56 | 2322929 neidermeyer
neidermeyer's picture

I like semi-auto 8mm Mausers ,, cheap rifles , cheap ammo and they make big holes in things.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:36 | 2322557 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I think the key points to remember are that the banks will get as much backstop a they need/want.  And, as long as the banks are getting those backstops, the real economy can never recover.

You will probably be starved to death due to price commodity fixing putting large farmers out of business.  Despite what the idiots in government say, hedging and speculating without interventions are both essential.  The only commodities which cannot have successful price fixing are the "PMs" because there is no storage cost and they don't go bad.  Because of these factors, among others, they are money and not a commodity.

Storable food and PMs are the only way for the little guy to prepare in a positive manner.  Then you have to worry about basic self defense and possibly helping to hang people later on.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 17:12 | 2323325 fuu
fuu's picture

According to his history he is a gold hater.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 15:31 | 2323096 Silveramada
Silveramada's picture

20# in 2012 countries like US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Brazil, Russia, all together they 'll have to roll over just about 8 Trillion of their debt...LMAO who is gonna come up with the money!!!???

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 17:06 | 2323310 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

You and me. And I'm losing ground fast, so . . .

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 18:04 | 2323428 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

Just globalization pains, no depression until you feel the yoke in your neck.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 18:21 | 2323474 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Is that like the boot in your face?

You know, jackboot, brown shirt?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 21:37 | 2323900 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

Boot in my face I had a coming. Granddad in camp, too.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:36 | 2322383 Brother Revegen...
Brother Revegend Magoun's picture

great depression is not in the list

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:35 | 2322384 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

1) Pump the shit out of chart #4

2) Point to chart #4 when asked about the other 3

3) ????

4) Profit

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:53 | 2322429 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

STFU Brusca!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:20 | 2322513 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

You too have developed the now viral, junk-Brusca tick...

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:38 | 2322387 Straying from t...
Straying from the flock's picture

The collapse of the dollar is a mathematical certainty.  All debts come due.  A dime a day will end the charade.

http://strayingfromtheflock.org/2012/04/06/a-dime-a-day-will-end-the-cha...

The recovery is an illusion.  The bank owned politicians have their goal in sight. 99 years and the Federal Reserve is almost done destroying the dollar.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:17 | 2322504 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

As someone ( a likely Obama Voter) once told me, credit is just FREE MONEY if you never intend to pay it back.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 16:05 | 2323173 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

he's here to spam

and "make friends" b/c it will help his spamming gig

if he reminds ya of yer preacher (not a likely obama voter) that's even better!  hot dog!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 21:48 | 2323912 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

watch his mates , HFT junking next on site ;-)

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:37 | 2322392 ONO47
ONO47's picture

42 million in soup kitchens, I mean on food stamps.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:54 | 2322439 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Food visas

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 16:44 | 2323065 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Not if you haven't paid your taxes . . .

Edit: Oh, wait, that's an American joke. Alstublieft sorry.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:59 | 2322671 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Uh, that number is now over 46 million sir.  When I first watched the video "Meltup" the number was about 39 million.

Check out how much has come true in the past 2 years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eb1n1X0Oqdw

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 14:51 | 2322900 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Actually, I think it is closer to 47 million eligible for food stamps. Now there is growth.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 15:00 | 2322949 Ancona
Ancona's picture

They're not poor......just nourishment challenged.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 18:15 | 2323462 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

"just nourishment challenged"

..love that political correct version of suckers...

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