With A 6 Month Delay, Pimco Catches Up To Zero Hedge
Compare:
From Pimco's Bill Gross, January 24, 2012...
with:
- Greek Bailout #2 Is Dead On Arrival: A Few Good Hedge Funds May Have Called The ECB's Bluff, And Hold The Future Of The EUR Hostage
From Zero Hedge, June 6, 2011
Incidentally, so does Reuters. Or rather did: we are rather surprised that Reuters replaced the original article in which it said that "creditors have the upper hand" with a bland piece of reporting titled: "Greek creditors urge quick deal after eurozone". Editorial pressure perhaps? Luckily we saved the original and it is below. Note how the bolder, underlined text has mysteriously gone... And here is what happens when one tries to google the old article headline: note the redirection on the Reuters website.
Greece clings to hope of debt deal (old syndicated location)
By Jan Strupczewski and Dina Kyriakidou
BRUSSELS/ATHENS |
Tue Jan 24, 2012 9:58am EST
Greece was clinging on Tuesday to hope of a last-minute bond swap deal to avoid a messy default after euro zone officials sent talks back to square one by rejecting a final offer from the country's private bondholders.
Athens is desperate for a deal within days to ensure funds from a 130 billion euro rescue plan drawn up by European partners and the International Monetary Fund arrive before 14.5 billion euros bond redemptions fall due in March.
After weeks of haggling with creditors in Athens, euro zone finance ministers in Brussels on Monday dealt a sharp setback to those hopes by rejecting creditors' demand for a 4 percent coupon, or interest rate, on new, longer-dated bonds in exchange for existing debt.
Private sector creditors now have the upper hand in deciding whether Athens will be forced into a hard default that could sow chaos across the global financial system and push other weak euro zone members closer to a default.
Charles Dallara, the head of the Institute of International Finance negotiating on behalf of creditors, is due to speak in Zurich later on Tuesday after leaving Athens over the weekend.
Greece's top official at the Brussels meeting remained stoic, saying the country had the euro zone's support to complete the debt swap talks in the "coming days."
"In reality, we are now entering the final stretch," , Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said in a statement.
"I believe everyone has now realized that Greece must be supported in its effort, which is of vital importance not only for us but for the euro zone as a whole and the global economy."
Asked if there was still hope of a deal, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said she remained positive.
"I'm determined to be positive," she told Deutschlandradio Kultur. "Political leaders have the instruments and possible measures in order to manage this situation and bring the euro zone back on to a sustainable path."
Conservative leader Antonis Samaras, head of one of three parties backing Greece's technocrat prime minister, told Reuters he expected the talks to be wrapped up by March 5 at the latest and said the country must head to polls as soon as the EU/IMF bailout is finalized.
He set April 8 as the deadline for elections.
"PLAN A MODE"
With weeks of talks yielding little progress and growing concern that Greece's fast-deteriorating economic prospects mean it will need more aid from partners either way, European policymakers appeared to be more willing to consider the previously taboo option of an involuntary debt swap.
A "voluntary" swap where both sides agree to the terms of the deal is required to prevent insurance against a Greek debt default from being paid out.
"There has been a slight change in mood, but no change in the policy lines pursued," a senior euro zone source told Reuters when asked about the mood among policymakers on Greece.
A second euro zone source confirmed the perception of a shift but cautioned: "We are still in Plan A mode."
A source close to the talks said creditors would go towards an involuntary debt swap if there was no agreement by the end of the week -- raising the risk of a messy default.
The bond swap is meant to cut 100 billion euros from Greece's debt burden of over 350 billion, in a bid to ultimately slash its debt from around 160 percent of GDP to a more manageable 120 percent of GDP by 2020.
Sources close to the talks told Reuters on Monday that the impasse in Brussels largely centred on questions of whether the deal would return Greece's debt mountain to levels that European governments believe are sustainable.
Greece and its private creditors had been converging on an agreement that would see private creditors accepting a real loss of 65 to 70 percent, sources close to the talks said after several rounds of talks last week.
At the time, Athens and its creditors were discussing new bonds would likely feature 30-year maturity and a progressive interest rate averaging out at 4 percent, sources said.
Greece is stumbling through its worst post-World War II economic crisis, with unemployment at record highs and frequest protests against austerity measures demanded by its international lenders as a condition for bailout loans.
The country is now in its fifth year of recession.
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Grossbag is a ZeroHedge lurker and a cross-dresser!
Gross. But if Gross did lurk here he wouldn't have lost money last year. Or maybe he reads Tyler and then cries himself to sleep.
"It's not true! It's not true!!"
Hedge funds in control? Please.
PIMCO is a voting non-dealer of the ISDA's European Determination Committee.
Voting Dealers
Bank of America / Merrill Lynch
Barclays
BNP Paribas
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Goldman Sachs
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.
Morgan Stanley
Société Générale
UBS
Consultative Dealers
Citibank
The Royal Bank of Scotland
Voting Non-Dealers
BlueMountain Capital (Second Term Non-dealer)
Citadel LLC(First Term Non-dealer)
D.E. Shaw Group (First Term Non-dealer)
Elliott Management Corporation (Third Term Non-dealer)
Pacific Investment Management Co., LLC (Second Term Non-dealer)
Who is really holding the fate of the Euro hostage?
And of the whateverthefuck dealer committee is named that advises the Treasury on debt issuance.
Plus probably has a fully paid subscrition to Institutional Investor magazine.
I goota go poop again.
Allianz' top brass must have enjoyed far too many beergarden visits in Munich, otherwise this fella would have been fired last summer and he probably will this year...
Greece is still controlled by unwilling Greek taxpayers who give a damn... and so should the rest of the world: "Give a damn" and let that rogue nation finally jump into the abyss...
How so Mr. LH?
I don't recall ZH pounding the table to go long 30 year treasuries.
Many of people here bought USTs in the Spring of '10 before the Flash Crash. I remember Cog Dis was one. As far as Tyler goes, I think ZH has made it clear that ZIRP will go on as long as it has to.
I have been saying to roll short term debt since I came on, and pair the trade long equity, along with buying physical gold. Pretty sure everyone here has outperformed, except Spalding Smails.
Rosie has also been a bond bull..
4.1% return is losing money? Gross beat SPX, DOW, ... sure beats sitting in a 0% money market account.
Isn't this a resurrection of the populist "Evil Speculators. Evil Hedge Funds" meme which the EU loves to trot out?
Amazing all these people who read ZeroHedge and use its ideas but don't have the decency to give a hat-tip to THE premium alternative financial news source in the world.
Why would they? They are a bunch of know-it-alls.
mr gross is getting lame and old.. seems he's done..
whats the point in twitting ? what does it have to do w/ investing
alx
Gross has an affinity to act like a sixteen year old girl when he isn't running the world's largest bond fund.
So it will be the banks versus the hedge funds then. Remind me, who controls the armies of the world again?
Only 6 months? Not bad, not bad at all. At least he got it before the MSM, that's something.
All this begs the question (at least for the Greek population) why have anyone 'control' your future other than yourself?
And with that you mean Greek politicians. right?
He can't just come out and say we are fucked. He is still part of the club.
And doesn't everyone read this site by now?
Elliott may not have an army, but they have an ace legal team.
Better late than never I guess. Sucks they will get credit for the Hedges work.
Wonder who clears the tweets at @PIMCO, Bill and Mo share one account?
PIMCO's got nothing on ZEROHEDGE. (i always enjoyed reading the business pages. & look at me now .... reading, understanding & luving this ZEROHEDGE website. )
Gotta hand it to Bill- tweeting into the face of Allianz, amazing they haven't confiscated Bill's phone by now.....
Seems to me, Gross is finally putting solvency above rationale
People like Gross live in an echo chamber until they are forced into reality. The poor SOBs on CNBC live in an echo bottomless pit.
I'm surprised the original paragraph about creditors having the upper hand appeared in the first place. The Ministry of Truth usually has better control of the editors than that. Perhaps they need to take some of the trading robots and retrain them as editors. It would make an aethetically pleasing feedback loop with robots creating news then ramping stocks based on the news they created.
But all is priced in, and there can be no bad outcomes anymore, right?
Props to Gross! At the least he is one of the few " Large Managers" to let people know the disaster this whole thing is.
Props to Tyler and the entire Zerohedge staff, who are always way ahead of the curve...unlike PIMPCO, masters of the pump and dump...but not quite as good as the evil Squid...
ESM treaty brand new:
Country Shares Money
Königreich Belgien 243 397 24 339 700 000
Bundesrepublik Deutschland 1900 248 190 024 800 000
Republik Estland 13 020 1 302 000 000
Republik Irland 111 454 11 145 400 000
Hellenische Republik 197 169 19 716 900 000
Königreich Spanien 833 259 83 325 900 000
Französische Republik 1 427 013 142 701 300 000
Italienische Republik 1 253 959 125 395 900 000
Republik Zypern 13 734 1 373 400 000
Großherzogtum Luxemburg 17 528 1 752 800 000
Republik Malta 5 117 511 700 000
Königreich der Niederlande 400 190 40 019 000 000
Republik Österreich 194 838 19 483 800 000
Portugiesische Republik 175 644 17 564 400 000
Republik Slowenien 29 932 2 993 200 000
Slowakische Republik 57 680 5 768 000 000
Republik Finnland 125 818 12 581 800 000
Gesamt 7 000 000 700 000 000 000
The Skype widget in my browser has highlighted the Greek, and only the Greek entry as a US phone number. When I called it they kept asking for money.
Hello, dis Peggy...
"Hellenische Republik (Greece) 197 169 19 716 900 000
Portugiesische Republik (Portugal) 175 644 17 564 400 000
Republik Irland (Ireland) 111 454 11 145 400 000"
Total ~ 50 bn
Really? I mean... really? The tooth fairy lives
"Königreich Spanien (Spain) 833 259 83 325 900 000
Italienische Republik (Italy) 1 253 959 125 395 900 000"
Total ~ 210 bn
So does Santa obviously
Französische Republik (France) 1 427 013 142 701 300 000
Republik Österreich (Austria) 194 838 19 483 800 000
Total ~ 163 bn
Grand total ~ 423 bn out of 700 bn ~ 60% may never materialise. Wow, they are really hitting the crack pipe hard today... How is this thing AAA again? In fact how is it credible even?
Don't be too giddy, he is just pimping up his book. PIMPCO has been a great contrarian indicator lately.
Well I wouldnt be too giddy if I were one of you Uberbulls either....who are you going to sell to if and when this zero volume markets takes a big dump one morning? You havent booked any profit until that sell order goes thru.
Gross is a contrarian indicator:
http://soberlook.com/2012/01/treasury-yields-likely-to-rise-in-2012.html
http://soberlook.com/2012/01/bill-gross-reversal-on-treasuries.html
Proverbs 22:7 "The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender."
And you heard it here first....On ZERO HEDGE.
Worth a donation to keep the truth flowing? Count me in.
it's not the first time. a few months ago, heaving read a GoldCore post reprint on ZH, I picked up a reuters link at bottom of the post.. I don't quite remember the title but it was "telling".. only to discover the title has changed almost 180 degrees from what had been cited by GoldCore..
They dont have the upper hand at all. Bull shit. The believe they have through their basis deal with CDSs. Well poor bastards. They will be doubble penetrated by the same sex. So hear is the question.
Who has been issuing these CDSs? Well not the hedge funds. End of story
Hint: The issuers are all in the voting dealer camp.
Forgive my lack of knowledge on the nuances of CDS triggers, but I was under the impression that a ‘voluntary’ restructure does not trigger a CDS payout. Wouldn’t a hedge fund holdout on a ‘voluntary’ restructure force a true default and thereby trigger that insurance mechanism? If they can holdout long enough to allow for the inevitable hard Greek default, it doesn’t matter how the dealers vote it becomes indisputable that CDS payments are due.
I think so. Force a CDS trigger. They know the banks will be pumped full of liquidity on an 'event' and the ECB/FED will print like no tomorrow on a major default regardless.
It is a game of bluff and the hedge funds are playing well. They know the game.
EU is going crack sooner than later, it's patched up on ECB clandestine bond buying. That is it.
Payback is coming.
"For want of a nail..."
Christine Lagarde sucks donkey dick, badly. HAANK! HAANK!
Good luck to the hedge funds.
Greece is a joke, the EUR is now an artificial currency backed by an avalanche of debt. The ECB (sans the FED) is the biggest speculator in global markets at the moment. And Europes white nights (Asia) are all posting trade deficits (japan whole year of 2011!!!). So, the endgame is close and you know how it goes...
Take the pain.