"This is the worst possible time for Britain to consider leaving the EU – or for Scotland to break with Britain. The EU is an unfinished project of European states that have sacrificed part of their sovereignty to form an ever-closer union based on shared values and ideals. Those shared values are under attack on multiple fronts. Russia’s undeclared war against Ukraine is perhaps the most immediate example but it is by no means the only one. Resurgent nationalism and illiberal democracy are on the rise within Europe, at its borders and around the globe."
As usual, every European snaction (sic) has an equal and opposite Russian reaction. Here is how the Russian Foreign ministry responded to what van Rompuy announced earlier today would be a new round of Russian sanctions, which wil finally be enforced tomorrow. First from the Russian foreign ministry:
- NEW EU SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA LEAVE RUSSIA NO OTHER CHOICE BUT TO GO FOR CERTAIN COUNTER-MEASURES - RUSSIA'S PERMANENT REP TO THE EU CHIZHOV
And the punchline from the foreign ministry statement: "Finally, give people a chance for peace." So Obama channels Dubya and Putin channels John Lennon. The New Normal sure is strange.
US 5Y Treasury yields are approaching a key level, but as BofAML's Macneil Curry warns, the MOVE Index (the Treasury market equivalent of equity's VIX) is more important to focus on... as a turn higher in US Fixed Income Vol could lead to a pretty nasty snapback in the carry trade.
Here’s the giant flaw in Obama’s incendiary strategy. The Peshmerga can be counted upon to ferociously defend Kurdistan against ISIS encroachment, and the Shiite militias will doubtless accomplish the same in their own territories. But no one with a modicum of historical knowledge would think it sane to send them up into the Sunni lands of the Euphrates valley to mop-up after the American bombs, missiles and drones. In short, once Washington is in full bombs away mode there will be no Free Syrian Army or reconstituted Iraqi army to finish the job. So what Obama actually launched last evening was Operation Blowback - Washington's stupidest military campaign yet.
If yesterday's tailing 10 Year auction left people concerned that today's final for the week 30 Year bond issuance would be weak, then the results put that promptly to rest, after the $13 billion reopening of Cusip RH3 priced at 3.24%, pricing 2.3 bps through the 3.263% When Issued. Furthermore, the Bid to Cover if 2.67 was above the August 2.60, well above the TTM average of 2.40, and the second highest of 2014, second only to June's 2.69. The internals were very solid as well, with Directs taking down 21.8%, above the 16.8% average, Indirects holding 45.5%, in line with last month and above the TTM average of 43.4%, and Dealers left with 32.8% of the paper which they can quickly flip back to the Fed for the next 6 or so weeks until QE ends (before it has to resume once again of course).
Here is the quote that perfectly captures our era: "People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage." (John Kenneth Galbraith) The trick, of course, is to mask the unspoken second half of of that statement: everybody else gets destroyed along with the Elites when the system implodes.
Well that didn't take long. After espousing his strategy last night of leading a broad coalition against ISIS, it appears President Obama's "allies" are backing away from the plan. As The WSJ reports, Germany and the U.K. on Thursday ruled out carrying out air strikes on Islamic State militants in Syria. It appears the Europeans, realizing the ire that these actions will likely cause to Putin, are stepping back - "We haven't been asked, nor will we do it," German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told reporters and his U.K. counterpart Philip Hammond explicitly ruled out air strikes in Syria, after the U.K. parliament struck down such a move last year. So that leaves the French?
One quick look at the map of the UK shows the biggest impact a loss of Scotland would have on the Divided Kingdom (f/k/a UK) of England, Wales and Northern Ireland, should the "Yes" vote in the Scottish referendum garner a majority in one week. But how else would a Scottish departure impact the UK? Here are the answers...
Sometimes we wonder what world Japanese leaders live in. This morning's mind-blowing lies and propaganda from BoJ chief Kuroda show one thing and one thing only - Japan has reached Europe's Juncker moment - "it's serious enough that one has to lie." But it's the market's reaction to his every word that is whipsawing JPY around and running algos wild as first he said more QE is to come then rejected it saying there is no need for more QE now...
The Ukraine "ceasefire" may be raging, but don't tell that to the "rebel", "separatists", "pro-Russian terrorists" or whatever it is that the ethnic Russians in east Ukraine are called nowadays, because a few short hours ago even Kiev finally admitted that the insurgency, with or without Russian backing, has finally hit the beach of the Azov Sea, which implicitly means that the only thing that is prevent the formation of a land connection from Russia to Crimea is the city of Mariupol, which as Ukraine reported overnight, it is now massing heavy weapons for what may be the most critical fight of the entire Ukraine civil war to date.
Poland Says Russian Gas Deliveries Tumble By 45%; Europe To Launch Sanctions On Friday, Russia Will RetaliateSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/11/2014 09:34 -0400
Yesterday, when Gazprom was supposedly "troubleshooting its systems", we reported that in what was the first salvo of Europe's latest cold (quite literally, with winter just around the corner) war, Poland complained that up to 25% of its usual gas deliveries from Russia had been cut. Russia indirectly hinted that this was also a result of Ukraine using "reverse flow" to meet its demands, with Europe allowing Kiev to syphon off whatever gas it needs without paying Gazprome for it. It also led Poland to promptly admit it would halt reverse flow to the civil-war ridden country. Fast forward to today when Polish financial website Biznes reports that things are going from bad to worse in Russia's energy retaliation war, after Poland claimed a 45% shortfall in Russian natgas imports as of Wednesday.
Well that didn't last long. The late-day exuberance inspired by a small sample size poll of Scottish independence voters has been entirely removed as America went back to war, the West prepares (boomeranging) new sanctions for Russia, and US macro data showed weakness (and for once bad news appears to be bad news). AUDJPY is in charge of stocks so far (as USDJPY fades back from 107). The Ruble has tumbled 4 days in a row and is now at record lows against the USD. Treasury yields are sliding this morning, as is the USD and gold is bouncing back modestly from early weakness...
"The set of measures adopted on Monday will enter into force on Friday 12 September 2014. At the same time, it is my understanding that the Permanent Representatives Committee (COREPER) before the end of the month will carry out a comprehensive review of the implementation of the peace plan on the basis of an assessment carried out by the European External Action Service (EEAS). We have always stressed the reversibility and scalability of our restrictive measures. Therefore, in the light of the review and if the situation on the ground so warrants, the Commission and the EEAS are invited to put forward proposals to amend, suspend or repeal the set of sanctions in force, in all or in part. It is expected that the Council will consider these proposals urgently with a view to take action if appropriate." Herman Von Rompuy
For the 2nd week in a row, initial claims missed expectations and on the heels of last week's dismal payrolls data (which was "unbelievable" according to the smartest people in the room) it surged to 315k - the highest since June. Perhaps most critically, on both an adjusted and unadjusted basis, initial claims are highher year-over-year (SA 315k vs 307k, NSA 234k vs 229k respectively). Is this noise? It has been 7 weeks now from the mid-July lows... and the 4-week-average many look at, has risen for 4 of the last 5 weeks.