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AAPL $600

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Three 'Unfilled-so-far' Opening-Gap-Ups in a row and a 4% jump from yesterday's lows...nothing to see here, move along...

We note that yesterday saw huge volume in AAPL and a considerably larger average trade size (following some light and low average trade size days last week) suggesting retail entry took us above the previous swing high and now professionals are covering into these gaps. Yesterday's dips and rips back up to VWAP are another potential signal.

 

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Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:35 | 2257398 tallen
tallen's picture

Parabolic moves always end with?.... Remind me.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:36 | 2257406 FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

Butterflies and cute puppies?

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:40 | 2257428 notbot
notbot's picture

Reggie!!!!

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:44 | 2257436 resurger
resurger's picture

+1

 

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 10:09 | 2257543 redpill
redpill's picture

AAPL is a widely agreed upon bubble. It's NetFlix from a year ago only amplified magnificently. Trying to guess how high it will go is pointless because the price is not based on any real valuation of the company, it's just the lather of the investing mob. Eventually it will turn, of course, when the 100th monkey decides to analyze the impact of vigorous competition in both the phone and tablet markets as Apple's innovation plateaus and they waste time and resources on AppleTV, increasing labor costs as people demand workers get treated well enough that they don't commit suicide, and an eventual dividend offering that will transform AAPL into an expensive income stock instead of a growth stock. At least they actually make something, mind you, unlike NetFlix, but the bloom will eventually come off and we'll finally see a stock price that reflects the real company value going forward. Until then it takes giant balls and a big wallet to try to short the favoritist momo darling stock in the history of the world.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 10:38 | 2257684 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Um, look, the AAPL chart is a gappy mess and a nice correction is indeed in order. But you can't in any way compare AAPL to Netflix. Netflix was a flash in the pan that hit it big on one product idea (DVDs by mail) whose day has come and gone, and is failing in the transition to a new business model (streaming content). AAPL is a colossal profit machine that coins money at a furious rate because they have a wide range of dominating products, and the vast majority of their competitors are either failing spectacularly (RIMM, NOK, MSFT, HP, etc) or can't make a dime of profit in the segments they compete with AAPL in (Google I'm looking at you).

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 11:45 | 2257846 redpill
redpill's picture

At one point you could have said the same thing about RIMM and their absolute dominance in the corporate space.  Now people see the stock symbol and cringe.  It can, and will, happen again.

And you can compare AAPL to Netflix if the alternative to comparing it to the company it just passed in size, ExxonMobile.  At the end of the day Apple relies upon discretionary purchase of their goods, that sort of demand can evaporate much more qiuckly than an actual commodity upon which the world depends to function.

 

 

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 15:12 | 2258924 LuKOsro
LuKOsro's picture

+100 of these babies

 

AAPL120317P00570000 strike @ 570, bid-ask 0.72 - 0.78, open interest 9546

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 10:56 | 2257754 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Add redpill to the stockpile of ZH readers who don't know how to evaluate what a stock is worth.  BTW Netflix has a forward PE of 42 RIGHT NOW, while apple is at 12.  That oh so wildly outrageous PE of 12 with over a 100 billion in cash!!  Why is this so hard to understand?  Why don't you define bubble for us.  Oh, and BTW, you can have a dividend and growth.  Could be there a 10 or even 20% correction in Apple, yes but not likely, because it will quickly catch a bid on even a 5% drop.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 11:21 | 2257831 redpill
redpill's picture

People are buying AAPL that have no idea what a PE ratio even is.  Everyone with a 401k or mutual fund holdings probably owns AAPL, and yet are scrambling for more even as the stock price is near-parabolic.  Apple cannot maintain its market share in either the phone or tablet space, its big growth years are over, and competition from other Chinese made goods in those spaces is going to become extremely vigorous.  That looks awfully bubblicious for AAPL to me.

"Could be there a 10 or even 20% correction in Apple, yes but not likely, because it will quickly catch a bid on even a 5% drop."

That's what Bernanke said in 2006 about house prices.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 14:26 | 2258683 Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

"Apple cannot maintain its market share in either the phone or tablet space, its big growth years are over, and competition from other Chinese made goods in those spaces is going to become extremely vigorous."

I had the very same discussion this morning. Where can Apple go now? What's so special about it that could justify the price? I don't see it, which suggests to me that people are jumping in the elevator without looking to see what floor they're headed for--everyone else is doing it, so...

Don't get me wrong--they make a good product.

And Dutch tulips are also very pretty in the spring...

 

**edit**
one thing I have noticed lately--there's more and more people on the subway who are plugged into their iWhatever like a crack pipe. Maybe Apple has some kind of subliminal hypnotoad app running 24/7? I have to elbow these zombie fuckers outta the way to get off at my stop now.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 12:25 | 2258248 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Robo, is that you?

 

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 11:59 | 2258087 POpatriot
POpatriot's picture

Bubble...If people stop buying their products, sure.  When this will happen?  A forward PE of 12 and YOY earnings growth of 117%...  I don't own any Apple products for a number of reasons but apparently to the rest of the world its the new crack people can't get enough of.  Does it make sense no?  Why you would pay $900 for a new IPAD 3 which only real improvement is a clearer screen seems ridiculous to me.  However I also think quadruple digit purses are asinine yet people continue to buy it just because they're a "status symbol".  In our day and age that's sadly the culture.  Apple's greatest innovation is somehow making their brand of electoronics "Cool".  Until another brand becomes "cooler" which I don't see happening anytime soon this stock will continue to print money faster than the Bernank

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 12:15 | 2258193 fuu
fuu's picture

55 million ipads sold. Less than 1% of the population of the world. The rest of the world doesn't think it's crack at all, the rest of the world doesn't give a shit.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 14:01 | 2258662 redpill
redpill's picture

Something tells me the Greeks won't be buying many iPad 3s for Christmas.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:38 | 2257411 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

A. Revolution

B. War

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:40 | 2257427 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Bailouts.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:41 | 2257432 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Tears

Settling of accounts

A bailout

Ponies for all.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:44 | 2257439 fuu
fuu's picture

Still holding out for my pony.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:45 | 2257444 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Depends on whether you are talking about printing press supported stocks, or anything else.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:46 | 2257450 stickyfingers
stickyfingers's picture

Buy it and learn first hand.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 10:03 | 2257541 halleys5
halleys5's picture

iTears and iGnashingOfTeeth

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 12:06 | 2258136 POpatriot
POpatriot's picture

Maybe its not parabolic maybe its exponential...

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:35 | 2257402 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Meh.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:37 | 2257409 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

They are getting her ready for all the billions of dollars sitting on the "sidelines"...  

They figure the retail suckers are gonna bite eventually!! Right? LMAO!

 

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:39 | 2257416 swanpoint
swanpoint's picture

PUT

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:39 | 2257418 fuu
fuu's picture

An AAPL gap a day keeps the shorts away.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:39 | 2257419 realtick
Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:39 | 2257421 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

I guess AAPL will break $1000 before the bubble bursts.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:44 | 2257441 resurger
resurger's picture

why 1000 say 13,000K

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:39 | 2257422 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Sugar up 4%.

No inflation.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:56 | 2257511 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Sugar is up 277% from November 2010...that makes 281%.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:40 | 2257423 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

 

 

I bet China is gathering shares for a hostile takeover.  Makes more sense than any other explanation.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:41 | 2257430 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Meanwhile, gasoline up six cents over the past three days here.

Bull-leash!

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:42 | 2257434 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Major parts of the markets are weakening and yet AAPL goes up which can diguise the other selling. Time to be carefull fellas.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:45 | 2257443 Johnny Yuma
Johnny Yuma's picture

Yeah but the Fed has decided to give the people what they want. Apple makes people "happy" so the thought here is to paint the tape for the people to make it look like everything is A-OK! Lol!!! Everyone stopped paying their traditional bills long ago. Now they use their money for iPads and iPods while spending the remainder of their unemployment checks on iTunes purchases...

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:51 | 2257457 manhunter
manhunter's picture

People are too stupid to live. Every hedge fund and odd lotter piled in this stock. Nice investment. Nice use of capital. Retarded gamblers.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:50 | 2257468 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

I would think that alot of people would love to have a $60?.00 print in the execute box. I know I would have liked to but I have a rule about drinking Kool-Aid. Sometimes it costs me though and I miss out on a great icy cold drink. 

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:53 | 2257488 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

In case anyone hasn't noticed, this entire market rally has been on gap ups.  There is a reason for this.  They pump the futures past the resistance areas. If they didn't do this the markets would have to fight them during the day and most likely fail.  Everytime this market starts to roll over mysterious buy programs come in and save the day.  Anyone that knows charting and can watch 10' candles know full well the manipulation.  I've been making some money off it but im not a heavy hitter, I know guys that know this playbook and are getting filthy rich off it because it's been the same bullshit day after day for a long time now.

I expect things to start flying apart soon but who knows. It won't last forever.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:55 | 2257497 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Which reminds me major componets such as AAPL and IBM are favored to manipulate higher,  they are so heavily weighted they give the "appearance" of a market moving higher. Pretty wild.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 10:51 | 2257733 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

the chart manipulation has been going on since march 2009, but the obviousness is much more pronounced now.  i was looking at the /es chart hourly.  stark buying, followed by churn, then another buying burst, all normally on sunday or at night.

 

i haven't traded this other than a few months back in october in years.(lost my ass) none of my skills are of any value.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:55 | 2257499 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

BRUN Apple Panic

There...better reference if I put it here?

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 09:58 | 2257518 Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

A couple of years ago, Apple had EPS of about 12 cents, today it's $35.  Did they buy back a shitload of shares? Did they have a reverse split?

If so, this high price is just a result of less shares.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 10:03 | 2257539 freeasabee1
freeasabee1's picture

I think we may have to re-read this interesting article from a while ago...

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/simon-black-apple-symbol-peak-empire

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 10:10 | 2257577 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Wait a second - 588?  What's going on, who's selling?  I thought the price only goes up, not down.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 10:10 | 2257578 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Apples are the new Tulips. That is all.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 10:24 | 2257631 rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

It is time for AAPL to be on the Cover of Time Magazine!

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 10:27 | 2257646 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Actual headline from ABC News:

"Apple stock tops iPopping $600 milestone"

Short AAPL.  Long media stupidity.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 10:28 | 2257648 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

GROW MY APPLE !! GROW!!! WHOEHAHAHAHAHAH!! GROW GROW GROW!!!!

And at the month of june I'll short your ass!!!

WHOEHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 10:31 | 2257650 FunkyOldGeezer
FunkyOldGeezer's picture

I don't suppose this corporate elephant in the room is anything like as dangerous to the US economy as a too large banking sector in any smallish country you care to name? Am I being sarcastic, or not???

How many Hedge funds in Gold or Silver by comparison?

When they all decide to exit Apple, it'll be mind blowing.

 

 

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 10:32 | 2257668 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Who cares. It's just our pension savings from out retirment funds that are invested in that "4th generation/end of lifecylce" toy maker.

 

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 10:48 | 2257720 Great Depressio...
Great Depression Trader's picture

I dont see what the big deal is. The company earns over $30 billion per year globally. At 16 times earnings AAPL can go much higher. 

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 10:53 | 2257742 css1971
css1971's picture

Jobs will be rise again!!!

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 11:21 | 2257829 prains
prains's picture

Apple is still only a luxury item that is more about status than actual productivity. I've been watching this stock from $66.00 to now and use their stuff everyday and will use it over any patchy driver updating windows crap any day but unless you are in design graphics and even then it is a spotty platform, APPL is by in large toy only stuff. Toys are for kids, one day you have to grow up and feed the family and then you need tools that work like a 15 oz titanium stilletto hammer.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 11:56 | 2258069 Midnight Rambler
Midnight Rambler's picture

After recently killing my third pc laptop in about 8 years, I was fed up with keys flying off, endless reboots and generally flimsy quality. The first pc laptop lasted five years, the second two and the third lasted just one year. I'm probably rougher on computers than the average user, but come on. So after doing some research I convinced myself to buy a Macbook Pro, a computer I fully expect to be still using 5 years from now. We can debate the merits of build quality as a business model, but that's how Apple got my $. And BTW, I run a technology company so it's not just a toy for me.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 12:31 | 2258298 ffart
ffart's picture

MS serf and I have a MacBook too. The thing that actually sold me on it was the power brick being well designed for once and the case doesn't feel like a cheap plastic toy. And if you look on eBay they hold their resale value a lot better the PC's do. Anyone who thinks Apple makes toys hasn't used one.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 11:55 | 2258052 davinci7_gis
davinci7_gis's picture

Time to buy PSQ or QID!

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 13:53 | 2258640 jimcg
jimcg's picture

And for every AAPL stock transaction entered into going forward, one of the parties will be unhappy with the outcome.

How do you trade insanity?

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