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AAPL Hits Lucky Number $700

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With a NASDAQ-100 weighting rapidly approaching the critical 24% level (and probably considerably higher in most fund manager's 'diversified' portfolios given its outperformance), the media excitement over pre-orders this morning has pushed the stock-of-all-stocks up over 1.1% to breach the magical $700 level just after the day session closed.

 

Here's the 'logic' (should that interject itself); pre-orders are around 2 million iPhone 5s at around $250 each - assuming a 50% margin means the company made $200 million in profit - and for that the market cap rose over $7 billion! (and don't say ecosystem since the majority of these 2 million are likely already in the AAPL ecosystem - as they roll their iPhone 4 contracts).

 

Seems reasonable eh? We are just stunned that this efficient market had not priced in the fact that pre-orders would hit their target! lol...

 

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Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:05 | 2804728 tawse57
tawse57's picture

Is that the market top?

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:06 | 2804733 Blasé Faire
Blasé Faire's picture

I've been to casinos.  You want 777.  Just let it keep rolling and you'll hit it.  But once you do, do you keep playing?

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:53 | 2804938 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

AAPL is 20% of the Naz.

The Bernaketh has it as his core mission to keep AAPL popping or at least propped, and to try and knock oil down.

 

Central Planning 5th Plank Virtuous Circle, bitchez!

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 17:03 | 2804962 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Still waiting on the i-Bidet2.0

Siri: Do I have any dingleberries ?

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:22 | 2804813 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

AAPL is like when you fart in a bathtub.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:06 | 2804735 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Keep going, you've been so spot on with apple thus far.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:07 | 2804736 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

tatto that apple logo on yourself, in case you ever forget what your favorite stock/iGadget is.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:11 | 2804757 Haager
Haager's picture

Thats a job for WilliamBanzai7 - to tattoo the logo on The Bernank and Timmoy...

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:37 | 2805290 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

I'd rather go buy a house in the keys, bahamas, or cayman islands with all of the money I made instead if that's cool with you.  Or just dick around for the next 20 years cuz I can afford to.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:42 | 2805673 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

Daddy died and left you his fortune?  Or you took part in the heist of the century?  Have fun.  You may afford to but you don't deserve to.  Classless rich people seem to be the norm these days.  You should march yourself off to finishing school so they can teach you manners though if ever you decide to come out from behind of your anonymous SN. 

I, however, am on the edge.  I do have a friend who was left a couple million dollars by her very smart father who did everything right (except raise his daughter who pulled the plug on him).  She tells me her money woes.  Home tax rate in NJ apparently will not allow her to live in Hackensack for the remainder of her 30 or so years so she is "shopping for a new cottage."  She tells me this....her friend who made under 30 grand last year...expecting sympathy.

Rich assholes with be the bane the 21 century.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:11 | 2805739 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Of course everyone who is wealthy is a classless asshole that had the money given to them. You are an idiot.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:07 | 2804737 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

is this the bottom?

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 17:02 | 2804966 roadsnbridges
roadsnbridges's picture

Bottom of the top.

Stupidity = priceless, for everyone else there is MC.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 17:06 | 2804981 dbomb12
dbomb12's picture

After bernanke gets done this will be the bottom,$700.00 is the new $7.00

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:09 | 2804745 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Maybe I'll buy some tomorrow....that should mark the top.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:21 | 2804805 malikai
malikai's picture

Cover with puts. That way it will be flat.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:21 | 2804809 Racer
Racer's picture

I would only buy something of APPLs if I was paid in full first... not after ... first....

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:09 | 2804747 kornholio
kornholio's picture

Bullish

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:10 | 2804755 Racer
Racer's picture

This hasn't been an "efficient market" for many a long year now

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:12 | 2804762 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I don't think ZH is figuring in the billions in free advertising the main stream news and financial news outlets have given to Apple.  I'd expect pet rocks to reach a $700 ticker price (symbol ZOMB) with that much free publicity.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:13 | 2804768 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

rumor im hearing: there will be an iPhone 6 released next year!!!!

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:31 | 2805253 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

iPhone 6 codename "En Garde" will be capable of displaying 50 rows of icons and will ship in a complementary iScabbard.

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:31 | 2805800 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

iPhone 6 comes with the ultimative feat for the yuppies - the  iBrator® .

6 gears at least, lube from the app store, ultimative sex on board, for just 299$ a month ... every pension fund should buy in ....

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:15 | 2804772 Racer
Racer's picture

 APPLs share price thrusts up and student bottom's reamed again

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:20 | 2804790 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Every dickhead retail stock buyer with a credit card that I know is suddenly an investment genius because of their Apple purchase, so yes, it does hurt me more.

Please keep pounding PMs back into the dirt, I was starting to worry that I'd be priced out of gold. 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:25 | 2805260 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

They aren't geniuses, they were just bright enough to realize the best company in the world when it was staring them right in the face.  It was just sooooo obvious.  Even if you were late to the game and buying at $200 you would be up 250%.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:17 | 2804779 RobinHood73
RobinHood73's picture

It is very simple: The Muppets have to first "take" Goldman and JP Morgan's position off their book before downtick is allowed. We get bombarded by AAPL propaganda every 10 minutes. It's all such bullshit.

Incindentally, the same transfer of positions from Goldman to the public is likely the real reason behind QE: to give the dealers that last exit window before the whoel casino closes down for a bit

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:45 | 2804905 tawse57
tawse57's picture

We said that about QE2.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:18 | 2804784 czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

The most dangerous game of hot potato in history. No matter who wins, we all lose.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:18 | 2804785 Sheeple Shepard
Sheeple Shepard's picture

Shiny shit we don't need makes markets mofo's.

Bullish for Magpies

Seriously though, i wonder how much of Ben's hot money has found its way to AAPL since 2008?

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:20 | 2804795 Belarusian Bull
Belarusian Bull's picture

Wasn't iphone 5 a disappointment?

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:29 | 2805273 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

iPhone 5 is a tremendous success. Consider how much people complained about its unveiling, whereas no one talks about Android devices being unveiled.

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:27 | 2804835 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

I believe AAPL to be the "poster child" for the collapse of Western Civilization. The greatest enterprise the West has going for it is a fucking toy company.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:31 | 2804846 Crtrvlt
Crtrvlt's picture

and facebook and mtv/americanidol

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 17:16 | 2805013 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

my girlfriends 13 y.o. daughter just got an Ipad, she is dumber than a bag of rocks with a hole in it, so I'm not sure what she does with it besides Facebook and idiotic games...but she just HAD to have one... gotta be close to the bottom of the barrel... i guess there are even dumber and more spoiled 11 and 12 yr. olds lining up...  Aldous Huxley really nailed it in Brave New World 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:23 | 2805248 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>my girlfriends 13 y.o. daughter just got an Ipad, she is dumber than a bag of rocks with a hole in it

But she has access to a vast library of knowledge at her fingertips. She also has access to a vast number of minds who can assist her.

Is it possible that you are jealous because you did not have these advantages at that age?

>I'm not sure what she does with it besides Facebook

Isn't being socially adept part of being intelligent?

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:39 | 2805291 frenzic
frenzic's picture

Have you been to Farcebook at all? Have you used a search engine lately? Shit gets dumbed down all the time.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:32 | 2804851 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Shut up!  You don't know what it's like to have another row of icons.  A FIFTH ROW!!!  Eat that!  And it lets me take pictures of the food I'm eating and upload it to my social media/personal tracking/marketing/demograhic datamining site TWICE AS FAST!  Like This!  Like me!  Like This!

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 17:07 | 2804983 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

Yes! Yes! Yyyes!

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 17:22 | 2804994 Rainman
Rainman's picture

pffft....some beer just shot out me nose

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:26 | 2805266 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>And it lets me take pictures of the food I'm eating and upload it to my social media/personal tracking/marketing/demograhic datamining site TWICE AS FAST!

We're seeing the noosphere continue to develop:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noosphere

"For Teilhard, the noosphere emerges through and is constituted by the interaction of human minds. The noosphere has grown in step with the organization of the human mass in relation to itself as it populates the Earth. As mankind organizes itself in more complex social networks, the higher the noosphere will grow in awareness"

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:20 | 2805241 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

So when something works like it should and satisfies customers the Microsoft / Google fanboys refer to it as a toy, interesting.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:33 | 2805281 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Right, "toys", that's what they are, apple was one of the first inventors of the PC, you know that thing that just about everyone in the world has in their home.  They changed the way people listen to and buy music.  Invented tablet computing and touch screen technology.  They make products that are easy to use, don't screw up, mostly bug free, and have a simple sleek design.

I can't imagine why people don't make money in the stock market if they think apple is a toy company.  

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 23:05 | 2805952 pods
pods's picture

Fond memories of signing up at the library to play Snake Byte.

As to their products, they do work (well, the iphone and ipod in my wifes experience).  I think a lot of the vitriol comes from people who hate coffee house people (that would be me).

My biggest beef is with trying to navigate through the damn itunes store to try and do anything with it.

Thought I killed my wife's phone updating the OS. Rebooted in German with no personal information saved.

pods

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:42 | 2805814 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

.... I know a bunch of happy Mac users, usually editing the music in Emagic on G5 .... :-P

.... also, I know the bunch of idiots who spent 5 K for Intel macs, desperaterly searching for some U-320 or SAS controllers ....

"The greatest enterprise the West has going for it is a fucking toy company."

- u nailed it ! iPhone 6 needs iBrators, iZingas, iJennas .... with their HW-products ( made by Samsung ), no chance to feed the iPonzi ....

 

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:32 | 2804852 RobinHood73
RobinHood73's picture

Incidentally If wse extend Tyler analysis: If the do hit their 200 million total sales number ( ya, right on that piece of crap?) at 250 per unit You are talking about total undiscounted EBITDA of 50 billion!. That is like, a 50 dollar move in share price. Since they missed earnings in July, AAPL has added  125 billion in market cap, or 2.5X that. We're talking 500 million phones discounted by the market- and it still cant downtick!!! Where are you muppets? Goldman NEEDS you!!!

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:32 | 2804854 mayhem
mayhem's picture

so the last 20 mins today was what... AAPL? big fist? oil? shakeout?

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:35 | 2804868 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Ain't this just neat when slave owners make so much money and so many people buy their shares and products?? And we call ourselves an advanced society with morals!! LOL!

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 17:11 | 2804999 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

What slaves does Apple own???

By "slave", do you a person voluntarily engaging in trade?

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 17:19 | 2805029 Spastica Rex
Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:03 | 2805196 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

Apple has "unfree servants"?

Are they in chains?

If Apple shut down operations, would that make the thralls' lives better or worse?

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:59 | 2805849 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Them that buys the products are them that are enthralled.

Bet you didn't see that one coming.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:40 | 2804884 adr
adr's picture

The iPhone5 is supposed to cost Apple around $110 if the early part breakdown is correct. The iPhone4 cost around $80 because the 3G parts were not that expensive and the old screen was cheap.

Some part breakdowns put the cost closer to $150 due to the LTE chips and custom screen, not used by any other phone. Apple used the new screen on the new iPod to cut iPhone5 costs.

The iPhone5 has finaly caught up with my two year old GalaxyS 4G.

The channel stuffing of the iPhone5 is going to be epic. The i5 hype didn't add $7 billion to AAL. The stock went from $585 to $700 on iHype5. That is almost $120 billion in market cap for a cell phone marketing company on one product.

Nobody is talking about the absolute ass fucking every retailer just got from Apple. There is billions of dollars in obsolete accesory inventory sitting on shelves. Every iPod Nano accesory just got obsolessed, along with every sub $300 accesory with a dock. Nobody is going to buy a speakerdock, even 90% off, if it isn't going to work.

Retailers can absorb a couple hundred cheap phone protectors getting thrown out. They can't absorb half thier electronics department getting trashed.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:12 | 2805229 RobinHood73
RobinHood73's picture

Absolutely agree on the channel stuffing being epic. The key PONZI at AAPL  is the revenue recognition game of stuffing channels regardless of demand and "managing" earnings to Wall Street numbers. But its all a lie. The crash has to occur in a couple of quarters from now but of course, Goldman can make it happen sooner if this presents the greater opportunity. It  would be so easy to precipitate a crash on this stock. All the moving averages are clustered together and everyone is MAX long.

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:33 | 2805283 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>The iPhone5 has finaly caught up with my two year old GalaxyS 4G.

No. You've completely failed to take into account aspects like support, quality, user friendliness, and usability.

See http://theunderstatement.com/post/11982112928/android-orphans-visualizing-a-sad-history-of-support

No one cares if a restaurant serves Michelin star quality food, if the lighting is bad, the floor is covered with rat feces, and the advertising is inadequate. All aspects of the experience are integral.

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:41 | 2804892 tmosley
tmosley's picture

In the future, all stocks are AAPL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFiDoOgRTpk

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:42 | 2804895 Shevva
Shevva's picture

Lets just hope the iPhonyn+1 can keep heading on up I hear the iPhony6 is out the end of October.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:49 | 2804931 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

The rate AAPL is going - it will have to bloody well own the entire earth - and the Moon, Mars and Venus...

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 17:17 | 2805022 MillionDollarBogus_
MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

What's the rumpus..??

I made a 1% gain buying and selling AAPL last week.

Volatility rules, baby........

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:14 | 2805224 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>What's the rumpus..??

Isn't it obvious? The ignorati are upset that Apple is making buttloads of money selling toys. They erroneously think that other goods are somehow intrinsically more valuable than entertaining toys. They misunderstand the nature of men and that of the market.

The ignorant, ungrateful masses perceive the creation of wealth through free market processes as an aberration rather than as a blessing. They put their butthurt on display for others to see, using devices brought about by these very processes. They are envious of every man who escapes being ground into poverty by statism.

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 17:31 | 2805079 dolph9
dolph9's picture

I ask myself everyday if I could be wrong about the metals.

And then stories like this come around and convince me I'm right.

The fiat is going to end up somewhere.  Keep on stacking.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 17:41 | 2805127 jeff314
jeff314's picture

1999 all over again...

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:04 | 2805204 RECISION
RECISION's picture

Reggie, Reggie...

Wherefore art thou Reggie?

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 01:59 | 2806155 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

 Vengeance is a dish best served cold.

That said, Reggie's is going to need a couple of days in the microwave on defrost

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:16 | 2805754 singsing
singsing's picture

As Apple Goes, So Goes The Nation......of China.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:21 | 2805769 Curtis LeMay
Curtis LeMay's picture

Listen to that voice in the back of your head: there is no fucking way on earth that Apple Computer's true current and future worth is anywhere near what the hypesters are claiming. $700??

Forget what a share of it costs on some exchange...

If Apple is commanding such a price, why isn't Big Blue at $5k a share? You know, the same Big Blue who refuses to enforce thousands of its patents simply because it's the noble and right thing to do?

Don't get me wrong. I know a couple bigshots at Infinite Loop, and they are pretty good a what they do.

Thing is, traders, the applers really think they are now special. 

So did the folks at Ashton Tate, Lotus, etc.

Apple stuff is a fad, just like designer jeans in the 80's.

Yet, Levis are still around. Where's panty Shield's and her Calvin's these days, eh?

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 23:29 | 2805979 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>there is no fucking way on earth that Apple Computer's true current and future worth is anywhere near what the hypesters are claiming. $700??

You're wrong. A PE Ratio around 16 is pretty reasonable.

The cash reserves alone make it worth at least $100 B.

Google is more overvalued with a PE ratio of 21. It sucks when the board pours your money into creating an OS and then doesn't make money off of it.

"Early in Android’s short lifespan, it seemed to me that subsidizing a free, open-source platform to make a land grab for mobile eyeballs was a good play that would pay off over time. Nearly four years later, there’s little data to suggest the investment is paying off. In fact, more data suggests Apple’s methodical approach is financially sound." - http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-09-12/after-500-million-android-activations-wheres-the-profit

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 23:42 | 2805943 devo
devo's picture

I own Apple, and I'm getting out after Jan earnings report. They are rehashing old products, and this is not going to end well. Until then, should be a good ride (though Oct's report will likely disappoint). My guess is they will split, join the DOW early next year, and hedgies will unload on the public/retail investor.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 01:56 | 2806151 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

In response to the latest US Credit Downgrade, Egan-Jones has now designated Apple's stock ticker AA+PPL.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!