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Is AAPL's 29-Year Trend-Line Signalling A Correction?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Presented with little comment except to note the incredible 29 year-long projection of the mid-80s trend-line (on the log-scale chart of AAPL share price) perhaps offers some resistance and the corrective 'echoes' that have occurred at these inflections before.

 

(h/t Brad)

 

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Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:22 | 2301115 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Oh noes!  Looks like we're about to get aapl sauce!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:58 | 2301241 walküre
walküre's picture

AMZN grace

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:16 | 2301305 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

This time it's different!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:42 | 2301393 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Bullish! Bichez!!!!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:46 | 2301407 ACP
ACP's picture

Time for Ben to roll out the AAPL-specific QE...$500 billion to ramp it to $1000/share.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:16 | 2301693 truont
truont's picture

New ad tagline:

 

Apple.

Making slavery chic.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/so-it-sweatshop-after-all

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 20:33 | 2302372 RussellChester8
RussellChester8's picture

my friend's sister makes $74/hr on the computer. She has been out of a job for seven months but last month her check was $17871 just working on the computer for a few hours. Read more on this site .... http://bit.ly/wYpMrv

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:24 | 2301118 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

Ibet against

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:51 | 2301218 citrine
citrine's picture

According to The Economist, 63% (out of 4181 surveyed) think that AAPL is in a bubble. 

http://www.economist.com/economist-asks/apples-share-price-bubble

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:09 | 2301282 Boston
Boston's picture

iFucked

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:18 | 2301497 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

HUMANCENTiPAD

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:25 | 2301122 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

 yeah, thats amazing, proof you can draw lines to prove anything

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:40 | 2301172 ChitownTrader
ChitownTrader's picture

lol

LOOK AT THE VERTICAL SCALE WTF??

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:42 | 2301179 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, since Apple has run up about $400 in the last few months, you'd need about 4 feet of actual chart space to reflect the actual price rise. Gotta mash it together at the top.

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:22 | 2301316 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I guess those two lines intersect at about 1000 then. Then the fleecing (and skinning and deboning and demarrowing) begins in earnest.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:10 | 2301288 machineh
machineh's picture

Hint: google 'semilog' ...

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:27 | 2301127 vmromk
vmromk's picture

Hey Bernanke, FUCK YOU

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:39 | 2301170 Tim Knight from...
Tim Knight from Slope of Hope's picture

I'm Tim Knight, and I endorse the preceding message.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:14 | 2301489 fuu
fuu's picture

Chocolate Rain...

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:27 | 2301128 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Correction down to $450?...Perhaps. Down to $250?...HIGHLY unlikely barring a total market meltdown below March 2009 levels. (which certainly could happen).

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:51 | 2301217 5880
5880's picture

could?

iChina is fooked

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:28 | 2301131 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Ah yes the widely viewed 29 year average price.  Its been a very telling indicator across all companies...

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:33 | 2301153 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well, go put your money where your mouth is and buy more Apple then.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:28 | 2301132 Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

I saw some roadkill this morning whose guts made it crystal clear that AAPL will continue to perform well.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:43 | 2301181 MarcusLCrassus
MarcusLCrassus's picture

Well that's just plain wrong because the entrails of the bull I sacrificed to Zeus this morning indicate that we're headed for a rocky correction. 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:47 | 2301199 blu
blu's picture

Well I broke my favorite coffee cup this morning, on that indication sold all my AAPL as soon as I could.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:28 | 2301133 monopoly
monopoly's picture

That is one impossible stock to trade. You either go long and hold your breath or short and hope you do not wet your pants.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:37 | 2301558 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I agree. But can't you say that about numerous stocks?  PCLN, CMG, AZN, GOOG, IBM....  Actually, the whole market. 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:28 | 2301137 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Quick!  Consult the Council of Geniuses!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:35 | 2301163 fuu
fuu's picture

"Excellent news sir. We've determined the investment value to be $90 trillion."

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:30 | 2301142 nestle
nestle's picture

Tom Hanks: "There is no correction in baseball... I mean AAPL!!"

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:37 | 2301166 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Oh Mommaaaa! A 350 bucks plunge!?!? Well, me would like that but NO, NOT LIKELY, although there is a little thing called history ... :)) ?!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:37 | 2301167 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

 

Does the AAPL fall far from the Bernanktree?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:39 | 2301169 justanothernerd
justanothernerd's picture

Based on their cash alone the company is worth at least $100/share. It may not be a $600/share company, but certainly isn't crash worthy. I don't know why ZH is shitting on them -- it's a good company (or does ZH just shit on everyone it doesn't agree with...?)

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:40 | 2301174 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Um, is that 'cash' in so-called 'Federal Reserve Notes'? I'd watch out if thats the case. 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:46 | 2301186 monopoly
monopoly's picture

just...., you are saying the same as Zero Hedge. Nowhere do they compare this company to NFLX but it is the valuation. And I think it is worth more than $100.00. I have a target of $420 or so. I think your price shits on it more than what Zero Hedge thinks. (My opinion only).

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:51 | 2301215 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just wait until the vaue of a so-called FRN is 0, and no one in the world will want them at any price....then what will an Apple share be 'worth', $50,000 or $500,000/share?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:20 | 2301501 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Riiiight  the "Apple has zillions in cash" arguement;

Ever wonder WHY they keep so much in cash?  

Cause they HAVE to.

Take a look at their licensinging agreements- there's yer sign.......

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:30 | 2301538 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

Justanother:  You may be a noob.  ZH is a bear site.  ZH has been short and wrong on AAPL since at least $250/share.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:41 | 2301176 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Fail - what about it hitting the lower yellow line earlier at the end of the chart and then blowing through - I do not see any "red arrow" down there - only because that one did not work.  I am sure if you drew this chart 6 months ago you would have put the red arrow there expecting a downturn only to get run over by the freight train.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:00 | 2301250 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

This is a long-term pattern so I'd like to see what's the math / reasoning on getting to the "peak". Those 2 yellow lines can't really be enough. Multiple time-frames would be best. This is the AAPL chart I did (a reply to a youtube video about shorting apple):

http://flic.kr/p/bkbg9B

This is one of those cases where a chart just doesn't tell enough. Key events combined for AAPL share drops: it's not having something ready for customers when & how they like it AND having a bad economy kick in.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:33 | 2301776 NakedSwanTrading
NakedSwanTrading's picture

Downside Risk for $AAPL,has duration of 3-4 weeks;starting before Apr. 7 on a close <610 after Mar 30 or on a spike reversal off of 620-627

 

https://twitter.com/nakedswantrader


Thu, 03/29/2012 - 18:18 | 2302032 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

only 30 to 75 points? Hardly worth a worry. Too bad the time-decay on puts & calls is so big on AAPL everywhere I looked. Can't see a play worth my dollars. If I was buying AAPL puts I'd want to see a drop more than 10 but given the theta you'd need to cash in on it A.S.A.P. probably no more than 10 days from when you buy the Put. I'd more suspect the Call would work but again the theta is so high you'd want to wait for a dip to get that Call and be out.

Probably the best money-maker on AAPL is to write puts - in terms of risk reduction - but obviously that costs a fair bit more. I wouldn't directly short or buy AAPL shares. The risk is just too high. It's in bubble-rise territory aka wall of worry. Bad enough to slaughter longs or shorts unless one is quite careful. I think I'll watch from the sidelines myself.

Thanks for the twitter feed, more an options/swing trader than anything intraday (though I've done it once in a blue moon).

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 20:44 | 2302407 NakedSwanTrading
NakedSwanTrading's picture

30 to 75 points is the first wave .... for the short term our strategy includes buying an AAPL straddle that expires in 2 months, while shorting every second week both an out of the money call and an out of the money put, that expire in one quarter of the time as the straddle expiration date

http://nakedswantrading.com/aapl-risk-window/

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 12:29 | 2306358 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Ya, that's not a bad idea. Still too risky for my taste but I hope it does well for you. Theoretically I think you could do very well. If I was willing to risk the cash to try I'd do so only after allocating to cheaper options strategies (not for AAPL) again given that AAPL theta. Still, best of luck to you. I'll set some reminders for me to read up on your blog there but if you feel like it, please send back a message to me. It's hard to track replies on zh but I can try. If you want to do it on twitter that works. On there I'm justincase_no_nwo (may show as justincase_no_n) and on stocktwits.com/goldpricemodel

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:14 | 2301301 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

WTF, you are correct, this is the dumbest analysis I have ever seen.  ZH is going to be the broken clock when apple finally does go south, which could be 2, 5, or 10 years from now.  ZH will be jumping up and down telling you I told you so after the stock has run up 10,000%, way to go guys, you are fucking geniuses.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:54 | 2301430 Jake88
Jake88's picture

So back up the truck.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:57 | 2301441 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

I already did a couple years ago.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:45 | 2301188 blu
blu's picture

This is kinda silly.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:46 | 2301190 ilovefreedom
ilovefreedom's picture

500M of recent insider stock cashouts point to probably

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:53 | 2301607 walküre
walküre's picture

... and bingo was his na em o

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:47 | 2301196 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Agree..to much to the extreme.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:49 | 2301207 monopoly
monopoly's picture

GOOG interesting. Now if we can get AMZN and CMG to join the party with AAPL we may have what history has called "a down market"...

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:50 | 2301214 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Well, I just did a little analysis of my own, and, extrapolating out the current average monthly gain of 16% (and why wouldn't that be a good idea, after all) I get an end-of-year price target of around $2300.

 

Based on this, I think the clear solution to the world's debt problems is for all governments (and individuals too) just go long AAPL and let the money roll in.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:52 | 2301219 Hangfire
Hangfire's picture

Just wait until the igun is unveiled this fall.  You aint seen nothin yet!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:52 | 2301220 djbaum741
djbaum741's picture

Trendlines in an up trend are drawn from minor lows. In a down trend from thr minor highs. Only as a defined channel is it done oppsite. As far as im concerned i think this shows me nothing

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 13:53 | 2301224 CaptainTripps
CaptainTripps's picture

this stock is going back to 550, that I DO know

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:02 | 2301259 Capt Tripps
Capt Tripps's picture

I don't know what the fuck it is going to do

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:00 | 2301245 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Just press the Siri button and ask her about all of Apples class-action & patent lawsuits. After your finished, ask Siri if you should buy or sell your AAPL stocks.

/sarc

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:00 | 2301248 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Looks about right.  I can see that happening by mid 2013.  

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:04 | 2301447 Jake88
Jake88's picture

Sounds about right

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:03 | 2301260 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Is apple due for a correction, sure, of course.  But this 29 year trend line is fucking nonsense.  And I like how they have the red arrow pointing down to $200/share, where if apple made it to $200, more than half of the stock price would be in cash.  So why don't you shorten your red arrow up by 3/4 and you might be on to something.  And the previous down red arrow was when the market crashed in 2009.

Of course you won't here anyone here bragging that they bought apple in 2003 for a whopping $6/share.  

And apple is up 17% since ZH's "iDisappoint" piece.

And what does that stupid fucking dashed red box mean anyway??

Calling Reggie Middleton!!

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:45 | 2301374 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

Unfortunately I was late and bought in 2004. FTW. Still time to fall in line though. What does doom-monger SheepDog-One say about that? He's probably watching videos of little kiddies singing some shit while praying for the apocalypse that he's still waiting for.

 

I digress. What's important in an investment is making money and following your own principles. 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:03 | 2301459 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Seorse!!  That is awesome!!  Congrats to you.  Wish I would have done that.  Retirement early for you.

I was late to the party and am in in the low 200's.  It's nice to hear some people that have had some winners.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:18 | 2301498 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

Agreed.  ZH might want to put a 'Sponsored by..." on the Apple attack pieces because that is what it comes across as. 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:29 | 2301532 harmonymonkey
harmonymonkey's picture

@iamaman

All red arrows are the same length; I infer they represent retreat from resistance

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:39 | 2301382 dehdhed
dehdhed's picture

The chart illustrates a correction back to 200 ... LoL
Back out the cash and that would be like paying 100 per share for a stock that should make 40 per share next year based on past results where they couldn't make them fast enough.
Any common sense would suggest that aapl will be a long time before it trades at single digit PE again

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:46 | 2301405 SavingsTherapist
SavingsTherapist's picture

I've witnessed an event where one faithful follower of this pseudo-math ruler religion found all kinds of resistance levels and tubes from a graph.

Afterwards he was told that the graph was formed by tossing coins. Heads: one pixel up, tails: one pixel down.

Technical analysis is nothing but tea leaves of the 2000's.

 

BUT: If the the technical analysis religion gets enough followers it will start to act like a self-fulfilling prophecy! People start to make their investment decisions based on these nonsense graphs. What makes them nonsense is the assumption that the graph you are watching is some sort of mathematical animal whose behaviour can be predicted by the "footprint" it happened to make years ago.

Hence: Feel free to laugh at them, but do not underestimate the power of the technical analysis religion :)

 

You can quote me on this ;)

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:06 | 2301468 djbaum741
djbaum741's picture

Funny how price bounces off those silly little lines and ma's. Must be crap huh.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:13 | 2301485 djbaum741
djbaum741's picture

Oh and by the way technical analysis was invented by charles dow in 1890. You wouldn't even have any of the indexs is it wasn't for him

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:10 | 2301673 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

'People start to make their investment decisions based on these nonsense graphs' ... but that's the whole point. It's about what people do that moves the tape.

 

What if I changed that to:

 

'People start to make their investment decisions based on these nonsense fundamentals'

You could make a trade based on some intel which could turn out to be nonsense.

 

BTW. That graph formed by coin tosses sounds like the random walk theory. Which really is nonsense. Unless you're an academic!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 14:49 | 2301417 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Apple bulls better have no clue about Elliott on this one.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:02 | 2301457 Jake88
Jake88's picture

Elliot wave is unadulterated nonesense.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:20 | 2301502 devo
devo's picture

This stock has been rallying on the fumes of day traders and amateurs for a few weeks now.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:28 | 2301529 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Corrections are not possible given the ongoing flow from Uncle Ben...short at your peril

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:30 | 2301535 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

If the premise is that a trendline touch leads to a sharp decline, what about the first touch in the mid-1980s? Looks like it was followed by a decade of Big Sideways.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:33 | 2301549 CaptainTripps
CaptainTripps's picture

APPLE, google, IBM, etc..all have their so called cash...in mainly US DOLLARs

 

yes, FIAT

 

if fiat went to zero these companies would be worthless

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 15:47 | 2301589 Bubble
Bubble's picture

29 year chart?! Come on now.

Anyway, how am I supposed to convert the clown bux price into non-fiat iPad denomination going that far back?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:02 | 2301620 mookielow
mookielow's picture

 

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 16:13 | 2301683 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

It's gonna gap up to $1000 tomorrow just cause you said this, T.

iHope

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 17:21 | 2301913 ThatThatcher
ThatThatcher's picture

................whilst new highs have been made with lower volume and extension from MAs suggests potential pullback...........Snore, an 18yr old TA could tell you that........

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 18:49 | 2302084 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

...its just a couple of silly lines...BUY BUY BUY

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:26 | 2302155 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

in 2001 an ipod cost $399. If you had invested that in Apple shares it would today be worth $26,000...nuff said

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