Is AAPL's 29-Year Trend-Line Signalling A Correction?

Tyler Durden's picture

Presented with little comment except to note the incredible 29 year-long projection of the mid-80s trend-line (on the log-scale chart of AAPL share price) perhaps offers some resistance and the corrective 'echoes' that have occurred at these inflections before.


(h/t Brad)

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maxmad's picture

Oh noes!  Looks like we're about to get aapl sauce!

spiral_eyes's picture

This time it's different!

ACP's picture

Time for Ben to roll out the AAPL-specific QE...$500 billion to ramp it to $1000/share.

RussellChester8's picture

my friend's sister makes $74/hr on the computer. She has been out of a job for seven months but last month her check was $17871 just working on the computer for a few hours. Read more on this site ....

Godisanhftbot's picture

 yeah, thats amazing, proof you can draw lines to prove anything

ChitownTrader's picture



SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, since Apple has run up about $400 in the last few months, you'd need about 4 feet of actual chart space to reflect the actual price rise. Gotta mash it together at the top.


tarsubil's picture

I guess those two lines intersect at about 1000 then. Then the fleecing (and skinning and deboning and demarrowing) begins in earnest.

machineh's picture

Hint: google 'semilog' ...

vmromk's picture

Hey Bernanke, FUCK YOU

Tim Knight from Slope of Hope's picture

I'm Tim Knight, and I endorse the preceding message.

alien-IQ's picture

Correction down to $450?...Perhaps. Down to $250?...HIGHLY unlikely barring a total market meltdown below March 2009 levels. (which certainly could happen).

5880's picture


iChina is fooked

junkyardjack's picture

Ah yes the widely viewed 29 year average price.  Its been a very telling indicator across all companies...

SheepDog-One's picture

Well, go put your money where your mouth is and buy more Apple then.

Greater Fool's picture

I saw some roadkill this morning whose guts made it crystal clear that AAPL will continue to perform well.

MarcusLCrassus's picture

Well that's just plain wrong because the entrails of the bull I sacrificed to Zeus this morning indicate that we're headed for a rocky correction. 

blu's picture

Well I broke my favorite coffee cup this morning, on that indication sold all my AAPL as soon as I could.

monopoly's picture

That is one impossible stock to trade. You either go long and hold your breath or short and hope you do not wet your pants.

slaughterer's picture

I agree. But can't you say that about numerous stocks?  PCLN, CMG, AZN, GOOG, IBM....  Actually, the whole market. 

bugs_'s picture

Quick!  Consult the Council of Geniuses!

fuu's picture

"Excellent news sir. We've determined the investment value to be $90 trillion."

nestle's picture

Tom Hanks: "There is no correction in baseball... I mean AAPL!!"

TradingJoe's picture

Oh Mommaaaa! A 350 bucks plunge!?!? Well, me would like that but NO, NOT LIKELY, although there is a little thing called history ... :)) ?!

LongSoupLine's picture




Does the AAPL fall far from the Bernanktree?

justanothernerd's picture

Based on their cash alone the company is worth at least $100/share. It may not be a $600/share company, but certainly isn't crash worthy. I don't know why ZH is shitting on them -- it's a good company (or does ZH just shit on everyone it doesn't agree with...?)

SheepDog-One's picture

Um, is that 'cash' in so-called 'Federal Reserve Notes'? I'd watch out if thats the case. 

monopoly's picture

just...., you are saying the same as Zero Hedge. Nowhere do they compare this company to NFLX but it is the valuation. And I think it is worth more than $100.00. I have a target of $420 or so. I think your price shits on it more than what Zero Hedge thinks. (My opinion only).

SheepDog-One's picture

Just wait until the vaue of a so-called FRN is 0, and no one in the world will want them at any price....then what will an Apple share be 'worth', $50,000 or $500,000/share?

jcaz's picture

Riiiight  the "Apple has zillions in cash" arguement;

Ever wonder WHY they keep so much in cash?  

Cause they HAVE to.

Take a look at their licensinging agreements- there's yer sign.......

DoctoRx's picture

Justanother:  You may be a noob.  ZH is a bear site.  ZH has been short and wrong on AAPL since at least $250/share.

WTF_247's picture

Fail - what about it hitting the lower yellow line earlier at the end of the chart and then blowing through - I do not see any "red arrow" down there - only because that one did not work.  I am sure if you drew this chart 6 months ago you would have put the red arrow there expecting a downturn only to get run over by the freight train.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

This is a long-term pattern so I'd like to see what's the math / reasoning on getting to the "peak". Those 2 yellow lines can't really be enough. Multiple time-frames would be best. This is the AAPL chart I did (a reply to a youtube video about shorting apple):

This is one of those cases where a chart just doesn't tell enough. Key events combined for AAPL share drops: it's not having something ready for customers when & how they like it AND having a bad economy kick in.

NakedSwanTrading's picture

Downside Risk for $AAPL,has duration of 3-4 weeks;starting before Apr. 7 on a close <610 after Mar 30 or on a spike reversal off of 620-627

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

only 30 to 75 points? Hardly worth a worry. Too bad the time-decay on puts & calls is so big on AAPL everywhere I looked. Can't see a play worth my dollars. If I was buying AAPL puts I'd want to see a drop more than 10 but given the theta you'd need to cash in on it A.S.A.P. probably no more than 10 days from when you buy the Put. I'd more suspect the Call would work but again the theta is so high you'd want to wait for a dip to get that Call and be out.

Probably the best money-maker on AAPL is to write puts - in terms of risk reduction - but obviously that costs a fair bit more. I wouldn't directly short or buy AAPL shares. The risk is just too high. It's in bubble-rise territory aka wall of worry. Bad enough to slaughter longs or shorts unless one is quite careful. I think I'll watch from the sidelines myself.

Thanks for the twitter feed, more an options/swing trader than anything intraday (though I've done it once in a blue moon).

NakedSwanTrading's picture

30 to 75 points is the first wave .... for the short term our strategy includes buying an AAPL straddle that expires in 2 months, while shorting every second week both an out of the money call and an out of the money put, that expire in one quarter of the time as the straddle expiration date

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Ya, that's not a bad idea. Still too risky for my taste but I hope it does well for you. Theoretically I think you could do very well. If I was willing to risk the cash to try I'd do so only after allocating to cheaper options strategies (not for AAPL) again given that AAPL theta. Still, best of luck to you. I'll set some reminders for me to read up on your blog there but if you feel like it, please send back a message to me. It's hard to track replies on zh but I can try. If you want to do it on twitter that works. On there I'm justincase_no_nwo (may show as justincase_no_n) and on

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

WTF, you are correct, this is the dumbest analysis I have ever seen.  ZH is going to be the broken clock when apple finally does go south, which could be 2, 5, or 10 years from now.  ZH will be jumping up and down telling you I told you so after the stock has run up 10,000%, way to go guys, you are fucking geniuses.

blu's picture

This is kinda silly.