About Those "Record" Black Friday Sales...

Tyler Durden's picture

Yup. The rumors were all true: record sales... on negative margins. Because it is not difficult to dump product when you are, well, dumping. Case in point is Corning which today preannounced a lowered Q4 outlook. And if anyone should know about the state of the market for the most desired item (after the Apple trinkets of course) namely LCD TVs, it's Corning.

From Citi:

Another Negative Pre-announcement — On Tuesday Corning lowered its Q4 outlook. Despite healthy LCD TV sales, a customer in Korea has reneged on contracted deliveries into year end, resulting in SCP volume growth of +5%-+10% vs. +20% prior; this action is unprecedented according to Corning. In response, Corning is idling ~25% of total capacity (we believe primarily in SCP, where it will take charge). Add'ly, Gorilla now expected to decline -25% q/q vs. prior -15% guide due to softer tablets (we believe weak Android and RIMM tablet sales).


Feeling Blue about Black Friday TV Sales — Investors seemingly cheered aggressive LCD TV promotions and anecdotal reports of healthy sell-through. We agree that price promotions were certainly aggressive, but we are left feeling "blue" about Black Friday – What does it say for the state of LCD TV demand if the only way to stimulate unit growth is with massive price cuts? If the supply chain was unprofitable before recent aggressive retail pricing, how much worse will it be going forward as consumers' expectations are now likely anchored at the lower price points?


Glass Pricing May Have to Come Down, and Sharply — LCD TVs have shown remarkable price elasticity, implying that the only way the industry can grow units is by lowering prices. In our view, this boils down to one key question for Corning: How long can glass pricing hold firm (or at least inline w/mgt's plan) with glass accounting for ~20% of the cost of an LCD TV panel, while the entire downstream LCD industry is unprofitable and glass makers capture essentially all the entire profit pool?


Bottom line, the LCD foodchain is unhealthy and we don't believe GLW's glass margins are sustainable over the long-run. The decline in margin will likely come in the form of a series of ASP declines, some of which will likely be inline with mgt's long-stated 2-3% q/q declines, but some of which will likely be step-function declines in the high single digits.

Ok, we get the problem with price points: the only reason anything sold is because retailers ate it in the form of negative margins: surely the upcoming pounding of the discretionary retail sector will be enough punsihment for that.

But not enough glass? Can't someone just blow a nuke in the desert? Suddenly there will be an epic glut of glass.

Now...if onlt someone could put two and two together and combine a desert and a nuke. Hmmm: this is a problem with added difficulty and will require at least a Nobel peace prize winner for its prompt solution.

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dark pools of soros's picture

so what!!  it's revenue generating.. you can always fire people to turn a profit

trav7777's picture

yeah, Tyler, STFU already.

You're harshing my fucking mellow.

So they are losing money on the product, they'll just make it up in volume or something

Manthong's picture

It's a good thing they have their solar business to fall back on.

dlmaniac's picture

In addition to every other government stats we now need to mark Black Friday sales # to myth as well.

Oh regional Indian's picture

The bigger tragedy in this is  trace the 'Sale" back to Foxconnn or wherever, where the labourer's already meager wage is made that much more meaning-less  give-away by loss leaders and arbitrage.



Harlequin001's picture

There is no way that I'm expecting revolving credit to increase this month to pay for this. No one could possibly foresee that we are selling more of this imported junk at lower prices on credit cards. No way.

You'd have to be a fucking genius to work that one out, far cleverer than me...

TruthInSunshine's picture

Somewhere in the conference room of a large, crippled big box retailer, the following conversation is taking place:


CEO:             Why are we losing this much money on record transactions?

Senior VP:     It's the loss leaders. People came for the door busters and then left quickly. The economy is sucking badly for most.

CEO:             What are we going to do about this?

Junior VP:      With an average loss of 30% on doorbusters, can we triple our doorbusters & make it up on volume?

Popo's picture

Nor could anyone possibly see that this is deflationary.

... Just sayin'

TruthInSunshine's picture

The Bernank is convinced that massive printing and ZIRP4ever, while giving large financial institutions interest free money to drive commodity prices higher with, thus driving down consumption power, is the way to prosperity.

dark pools of soros's picture

it's not about prosperity anymore..  they just want to further incase the peons

everyone needs to realize that the Bernake, et all are not 'dumb and screwing it up' - they are managing the situation exactly for their side of the tracks

dracos_ghost's picture

Zirpes, the gift that keeps on giving.

CoolClo's picture

Deflation- The destruction of wealth.

trav7777's picture

even the dipshit radio talk jocks were hyping it...the shit wouldn't have needed to have been hyped so much if it were true.  It woulda stood on its own.

But everyone had to pimp the fuck out of it and it was people who had no clue about any numbers.  Sort of a concerted effort to drum up confidence, probably came from senior mgmt to spin a nice mythic narrative.

People killed people in order to get their hands on something they couldn't have afforded...fuck Christmas.

Bananamerican's picture

agree, but, hey man....don't "fuck christmas"

that aint christmas...never was

Eireann go Brach's picture

Trav, after reading your comments now for a few months, I have decided that you are a fucking inbred mongrel!

sydneybound's picture

i think he might be being jocular

fnord88's picture

an inbreed mongrel with a viewpoint usually worth reading though in my opinion, even if i don't agree. I'm fucking over blogs where everybody agrees with each other in one massive circle jerk. Even more over pointless fucking comments that attack somebody with......... a worthless character assesment.

On a more positive note:

"Now...if onlt someone could put two and two together and combine a desert and a nuke. Hmmm: this is a problem with added difficulty and will require at least a Nobel peace prize winner for its prompt solution"......

Tyler you fucking crack me up.

NoControl's picture

im no expert, far from it, but don't negative marins imply that you are just trying to get back as much money back from your failed inventory buildup as possible? Some hoped for a light at the end of this pesky "recession" which doesnt appear to be coming anytime soon but now all your $$$ is sitting in a pile of TVs in some warehouse with nary a consumer in sight.

  Black Friday was the jump-off point and the christmas season is the swan-dive.  Anyone who's still holding anything that needs "disposable" income for the purchase by the time Europe does its thing will regret their complicity in the channel stuffing delusion.  They'll be left holding the inventory bag but this bag has warehousing and storage costs on it so toss it to the wind or to the greater fool but anyone who keeps it will find it is actually a leetch on your bottom line.


The motto for the coming times, in service as in retail:

Lean and Mean

Freewheelin Franklin's picture

I'm no expert, either, but... they mark down the big box items to get people in the store, and make up for it by marking up all of the peripherals 400-500%. 


"BTW", if you want to get true HD, you're going to need a good HDMI cable".


"Better give me one."


"You'll also need x,y and z."


"Give me some of them, too."


Only now, people must be beginning to realize that you can buy that HDMI cable that Best Buy charges $100 for on ebay for five bucks plus shipping. 

Are you kidding's picture

go to monoprice.com they sell cables CHEAP!

longonSpam's picture

Do I have to buy the pepper spray before I nail the other sheeple in the Walmart with it or can I grab it off the shelf, unload, snag the fucking Xbox and put the can back empty?

That's the difference between long & short pepper spray I guess but then again mall cops & other needle dick pussies are three-cornering the market these days.

MrTown3's picture

well since you put it that way....

navy62802's picture

They can just harvest the glass from Iran in a couple of months, right? Iran will become a net exporter of glass. A Keynesian wet dream.

HoofHearted's picture

The Keynesians would first have to break the glass, get the glass man out for the repair, then have the war that makes more glass so that they can go around shooting out windows to make that multiplier rise. You take care of everything all at once...

Manthong's picture

Hmm.. It sounds incredible, but I have to wonder if Paul "Nobel" Krugman even knows who Bastiat was.

Uncle Sugar's picture

We take a small loss on each transaction, but we make it up in volume!

greensnacks's picture

lol. so true.  I bought 6 items from amazon and got 2-day free shipping on all of it. In the past days, they have sent me notice that it was broken into 5 separate UPS shipments.

batterycharged's picture

Actually, Amazon is making that up by fucking the people that sell on Amazon.

I sell from a small shop on Amazon and the shipping they ask customers to pay is now much less that what reasonable shipping now costs.  So my sales price is eaten up by the gap between actual shipping and what Amazon is colllecting.

And they're taking a bigger chunk of my sales to boot. So my margins are going to shit so Amazon can offer free shipping.




Isotope's picture

So, is this a repeat of the old classic?

"We're losing money on each sale, but we'll make it up in volume."

Caviar Emptor's picture

That's biflation in action, baby

infinity8's picture

That's another bullshit phrase like "if you're not grownig, you're dying".

Caviar Emptor's picture

Yup. It started showing up in the regional reports in October: inventory liquidation at low prices. 

ZippyBananaPants's picture

Since glass is a liquid, drink up bitchez!

alien-IQ's picture

The fact is that there are so many people selling whatever little shit they have left to raise a few dollars that instead of going to the Mall (puke), you can just go on craigslist or ebay and find anything you want, slightly used, for a fraction of the stores "heavily discounted" price. and in the process...you're helping out somebody that needs to raise some cash. It's a win win...unless, of course, you're a store in a Mall...then...oh well...life sucks, get a helmet:

Caviar Emptor's picture

Yup. The barter economy is on the rise as predicted

mailll's picture

Research RFID chipping on the internet.  This is on the rise also, as predicted.  The one world currency will be a form of credit card, but in the form of an implanted microchip.  Obama is pushing for a form of it by pushing to have all medical records digitized so they can be put on an implantable RFID chip (Research Obamacare RFID).  This is the first step. Then money will be put on this chip. Then our drivers license.  Then our library card.  Then GPS. And this is just the beginning. It can even be used to allow us access to our homes and computers.  If it is digitized, it can be put onto an implantable RFID microchip.  It is all pointing in this direction.  This is also why Obama is pushing for high speed internet to reach every man, woman and child in america. Just as you can't have cars without gas stations, you can't have implantable RFID chips without the internet.  Research it on the internet.  Everything about implantable RFID chips sounds great doesn't it? But, if you disobey big brother, he will turn your chip off and you won't be able to buy or sell without it,  you will have no access to a doctor, etc.  You see, this great technology will be used to enslave and control all of us. It sounds great, but it will be used for evil purposes.  It's called the mark of the beast. Many christians know about this. But non-christians should research it also in the Book of Revelations 13 and 14.  Here is part of it. You can read the rest for yourself:

And he (Speaking of the Beast, or the one world government), causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:  And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

lunaticfringe's picture

One world currency. Get over that shit. They can't even do a one european currency. China just dying to get in on that. One world currency is for complete morons- of that I am absolutely positive.

alien-IQ's picture

If a one world currency is for complete morons, then that should raise the likelihood of it happening, not lower it...or have you forgotten that the world is currently being ruled by complete morons?

longonSpam's picture

With USD as the fiat world reserve for forty yrs how much more proof ya need that the whole world is exactly that stupid.. B Franklin has been on the spin cycle since LBJ lumped SS into appropriations in '68. Fuck this country.

Element's picture

Obama is pushing for a form of it by pushing to have all medical records digitized so they can be put on an implantable RFID chip (Research Obamacare RFID).

Joe Hockey from the Australian Liberal Party (and potential next leader of the opposition and PM) has been pimping that same idea since about 2005. They withdrew it at the last election on the grounds of costs, and the need to lower the deficit.

But they definitely intend to do it.

Voluntary of course, but if you don't 'volunteer' to have one they will simply make services increasingly unavailable via any other means, until you 'volunteer' to have the RFID 'smart chip' tech on your person, in order to do most things.

And what do they call it : "The Access Card" (formerly known as the "Australia Card" ... until it was rejected as too infringing on personal privacy)

ABC Radio National Background Briefing

AUDIO MP3- Getting smart: the Access Card

So convenient! ... much better than tattoos ... dunno about any beasties etc., the beasties are us.

I did it by Occident's picture

I always wondered about this RFID cashless society and giving to charity.  When coming out of the store or passing by a homeless person, I usually throw in the spare (fiat) change that I have.  With cashless, that would be too much of a hassle.  Plus I'm sure it would be hard for beggars to buy an RFID reader. 

death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

I work for Bestbuy. We lost alotta FRNs on allotta crap!

Zgangsta's picture

You lose money on the guns, you make money on the ammo.

navy62802's picture

Ah the old Gilette razor scheme. Nice.

ghengis86's picture

I got Gilette razor in the mail on my 18th birthday along with a selective service card; Gilette gets my money Uncle Sam gets my life, all in one day!

I did it by Occident's picture

I know I got a selective service card but not sure where it went.  If they get the draft again, I'm sure they know where to find me in any case. 

HungrySeagull's picture

Got out of that crap. 5 blades for fucking 20 dollars? No.

I buy German Blades for 5 dollars 10 pack and have a bunch for the razor made for them. 50 dollars spent good for a year.


Otherwise it's a two hundred and change cash for Gilette for the year.


Regarding glass, I would not stress about it. Plastic will do the job just as well.


As long you have the Silver and other material to keep cranking out the LCD's you are fine.

Retail is shit pricing. You can pick up a LCD on nothing almost anywhere you care to look.