According To JPM There Is Now A "Better-Than-Even Chance" Of Fed Action On September 21

Tyler Durden's picture

For now it was just Jan Hatzius calling for QE3 now if not sooner. With the addition of JPM to the list of banks now implicitly expecting (read demanding) QE3, it is now quite clear how Wall Street feels - after all someone has to pay those Wall Street bonuses - it sure won't come from M&A activity, underwriting of Chinese IPO frauds, or trading volume. Here is the key sentence from a just released note by JPM's Michael Feroli: "We believe the minutes lend themselves to our view that there is a somewhat better-than-even chance the Fed takes action at the next meeting to increase the average maturity of assets on their balance sheet." Keep an eye on the market tomorrow for confirmation: a third day of the same low volume meltup we have seen this week should make the open QE3 question into case closed.

From JPM:

Sometimes the squeaky wheel doesn't get the oil

The hawks on the FOMC may generate a fair amount of media attention, but today's minutes to the August 9th meeting remind us that there is a less vocal dovish faction that favors even more aggressive policy easing, and their view has been winning out over time. This contingent of "a few" favored a "more substantial move" at the recent FOMC meeting, "but they were willing to accept" the mid-2013 rate guidance "as a step in the direction of additional accommodation." While the change to forward guidance was one such step, other steps discussed included the usual three: further enhancements to forward guidance, further asset purchases, and lowering the interest on excess reserve rate. Inflation targeting, price level targeting, and other more extreme measures were not discussed. We believe the minutes lend themselves to our view that there is a somewhat better-than-even chance the Fed takes action at the next meeting to increase the average maturity of assets on their balance sheet.
Regarding enhanced communications, there was a relatively lengthy discussion of conditioning the fed funds rate guidance on explicit numerical values for the unemployment rate or the inflation rate. A similar policy was undertaken by the BoJ several years back, when they conditioned the continuance of zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) on inflation remaining negative. While some on the FOMC argued in favor of this strategy, the only downside that was mentioned in the minutes was "questions about how an appropriate numerical value might be chosen." Given the Committee added a day to the next meeting to discuss easing options, some further communications enhancement at the next meeting cannot be ruled out.
On balance sheet policy, "some participants noted that additional asset purchases could be used to provide more accommodation." The minutes then went on to note that "others" favored an Operation Twist, perhaps of the active version, to extend the maturity of the Fed's assets holdings by actively selling short maturity assets from the Fed's balance sheet and buying more longer maturity assets. It was noted that this "would have a similar effect" on long term rates as more outright purchases, but would "not boost the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the quantity of reserve balances." It was not explicitly spelled out why either of these latter two variables should matter, but reading between the lines it could be the case that concern about the adverse political and public reaction to an increase in the monetary base may be leaving Fed policymakers hesitant to undertake another large expansion of the balance sheet. The discussion on lowering IOER was very terse, as "a few participants noted" that it could be "helpful in easing financial conditions."
Stepping away from the discussion of policy options, the Committee's discussion of current conditions and the economic outlook was an exercise in dreariness. The economy's performance so far "was considerably slower than they had expected," uncertainty has "risen appreciably," and "most participants saw increased downside risks to the outlook for economic growth."

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TruthInSunshine's picture

<--  QE to infinity & beyond ('American Spring[Fall]' Cometh)

<--  QE3= Off With 'Let Them Eat iPad2' Heads (GS&JPM positioned accordingly)


Letter from Wall Street to The Bernank & William Dudley (hand delivered, sealed with a perfumed kiss):

Dear Ben, Please Print us More Money

whstlblwr's picture

This kind of crap lets Ron Paul win. This is good example of wall street calling for money printing at expense of citizens. Higher food costs, gas costs up, they don't care as long as they see bonus for new car.

Today just mere mention of monetary easing, QE3, by Fed Evans pushed up gas and food costs. I use these examples on social media for people too busy to pay attention.

TruthInSunshine's picture

When the markets depend, nearly exclusively, on more BernankBux, one needs NO MORE confirmation that the economic structure is one gigantic Ponzi & CONfidence game (just as Madoff, Kotlikoff & James Grant have said) and is about to fall hard.

The opaque Federal Reserve wants to project The Bernank as some sort of wizard behind the curtain, when he's a bearded, trembling, nervous, quivering lip nerd, who has no idea how real economic activity is promulgated, and he would have been better suited as a research assistant somewhere.

Good luck, bitchez. Prepare accordingly.

whstlblwr's picture

Well, yell it far and wide. People need to make connection that QE3 is printing money, lead to hyperinflation. Higher stock market means more expensive living. Wall Street and Federal Reserve are printing money at expense of all people in the world.

WonderDawg's picture

Is it just me or is anyone else so fucking tired of hearing about QE3 is on or QE3 is off; it's in the bag; there's no fucking way; it's a done deal; it's politically impossible.

First we had to wait weeks with everyone speculating this or that would happen at Jackson Hole, then a big nothing, and the market rallied because Bernanke farted.

Fuck me to tears, what a world we live in. 

slaughterer's picture

WonderDawg, I had a girlfriend in the NYC of the 1980s, the heiress to a multi-billion dollar designer clothing fortune, whose favorite slang expression was "fuck me dead."  So maybe in her world, your last sentence should read, more hyperbolically: "Fuck me dead, what a world we live in."  

snakeboat's picture

Cmon Dawg

It's in the bag


There's no fscking way


in the end

It's in the bag

WonderDawg's picture

And in the meantime, we speculate, debate, and wait. I've got dry powder burning a hole in my pocket, and I can't make a move for fuck's sake, because sure as shit I'll guess wrong.

DavidC's picture

If you had a gun with one bullet left in it would you fire it just to hear the noise it makes?

Bernanke will NOT do an overt QR3 unless he has NO other choice. That will never happen unless the Dow is below 10,000 or the S&P below 1,000.


WonderDawg's picture

So, you don't think the Dow is going back to 10,000 or the S&P below 1,000? I think we'll see those levels before the end of September. In fact, I think Dow below 10,000 is a given. But my frustration is in the short term. Medium term (1-2 years) I'm set for the bear market and I don't think they can print their way out of it. I'm just sick and tired of every movement in the market being analyzed as a reaction to QE speculation.

slaughterer's picture

TruthinSunshine:  the letter you link to "Dear Ben, Please Print us More Money" is written in the style of a child"s letter to Santa Claus.   If that is what Wall Street has come to, then the whole industry should be ended at this point.  

TruthInSunshine's picture

That letter was penned by Richter, and is meant to spell out the real reasons and the real knock on effects for and from additional Quantitative Laxative Easing by the incompetent (Evans) and/or corrupt (Dudley & Sack) members of the criminal organization (also, arguably violative of the Constitution) that is the Federal Reserve Racketeering Outfit.

And yes, Wall Street should be dissassembled, so that this country can be free of its parasitism, which is bleeding the real productive capacity of this nation absolutely dry, and destroying what's now left of our foundation and capacity to rebuild our economy.

...Chucky Schumer, Manhattan and the Deeply Captured regulators and bagmen on K Street be damned.

lolmao500's picture

Do they really care if 2 people say no? They can just do it... what the hell are the 2 others gonna do? Cry about it?

Cdad's picture

$5 trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus...and these criminals are begging for more.

I have a better idea.  How about everyone of their banks simply go under, as should have happened in 2008?  I think it would be cheaper, and also has the side benefit of delivering justice to our profoundly criminal class of bankers.

Just a thought.

eatthebanksters's picture

It would be nice if the tail stopped wagging the dog wouldn't it?  We need to change the laws which, according to Eric Holder's Justice Dept\artment, don't allow us to prosecute and convict these criminals. (Maybe congress could pass a law akin to NY's Martin Act?)  We need to pass rules regarding records keeping and access to info so tha trained watchdogs could keep something like this from happening again (get it Barney?)  We need to vote out the current royalty on congress and replace them with folks who wish to do good by the people and for the people.  Society is on its way down a black hole...

Pegasus Muse's picture

Can we just dispense with all the technical weasely legal mumbo jumbo?  Line the fuckers up and impale their asses .... in a nice neat row .... right down Wall Street.  Then go to DC and do the same.

boiltherich's picture

Well, it explains why hamburger just went to $5.59 per pound at Safeway today.  I quit buying it when it went from $3.29 to $3.49 last Christmas, but I wonder what people who have kids are going to do, of course they have SNAP but still. 

Bring the Gold's picture

I wonder, do people on this site have any idea how pathetically small the SNAP allotment is each month? It's tiny. It wouldn't constitute a single line of coke off a bankster hooker's ass and I'm talking a family of 4 with no income. If you want an exact figure a Family of 4 with no income gets $668 a month to live on.

If said family has been out of work since 2006 they are coming off the welfare rolls (5 year limit now). Lots of folks UC is running out. Once they are down to SNAP and SNAP alone they are looking at homelessness unless they have Section 8 housing (incredibly hard to get, and usually a legacy from the 1990's if not long before).

People on this forum wondering when the shit will hit the fan have no idea that for 60 million+ Americans it hit the fan years ago.

boiltherich's picture

Your telling me?  I get 932 per month SSD.  That was what my Mom had to live on in her old age just before she died, I am convinced she died of malnutrition. 

gjp's picture

disgusting, everyone involved with this politburo, money-destroying, self-aggrandizing hackery.  how can justice be done remotely in proportion to these crimes?

Strider52's picture

TCTP - Too Corrupt To Prosecute

alien-IQ's picture

this cannot happen. it just...can't.

IMA5U's picture

The Fed will not employ an all out QE3.  They will leave themselves some outs so the spectre still looms to scare the shorts and make people think it is a hazard not to be long.

After all, if the market rolls over their boy Obama won't get reelected.  Which means they will all be out of jobs.  It's all about jobs!

alien-IQ's picture

it doesn't matter who is in office. the banks own them all. Look back at our history and tell me, how many presidents have we had that were not bagmen for the banksters?

Ron Paul is the only candidate that may not be...and we've seen what the media is trying to do to his campaign.

it's time for heads to start rolling...and I don't mean metaphorically.

Cdad's picture

And the Ron Paul story, his candidacy, has reached Average Joe.  Despite the MSM's attempts to marginalize him, his popularity is rising.  This is creating more political risk for the Fed than ever before.  Add to this dissension in the ranks at the FED itself.

That the Street considers it all a slam all you really need to know.

sun tzu's picture

It won't reach enough people. Too many have their hands in the cookie jar. 

45 million on welfare

2 million federal employees and families

1 million military and families

millions of government contractors and families

millions of state and local government emplyees and families

60 million receiving social security


The gravy train won't stop until it derails.


JohnG's picture

Andrew Jackson.  That's about all of them.

vmromk's picture

There will be no QE3 on September 21.

The Fed has interest rates where they want them, they announce QE3, and rates will rise, just as they did when QE2 was announced.

The entire ponzi scheme will crumble if rates start to rise.

The stock market will be the sacrifical lamb.


Spitzer's picture

Thats wrong. If you held German bonds through Wiemar, WW1 and WW2 you got wiped out 3 times. If you held Siemens stock, you would still have money today.

Stocks are not gold but they do represent real assets. Bonds represent fuck all nothing.

sun tzu's picture

Stocks in solid companies with good balance sheets. That pretty much wipes out all major banks

NotApplicable's picture

But there won't not be QE3 then either.

It's all about manufactured consent. Something isn't going to happen, until it does, and by then, it's a given, so it's "priced in."

JPM is just setting it all up (as well as GS, Pimpco, etc.), as the announcement was already pre-announced months (if not years) ago.

In other words, all they are doing is managing expectations. The scope of action is already determined as the Coup of 1913 comes full circle.

eatthebanksters's picture

Jamie is directing all the traffic...

RockyRacoon's picture

Wonder how many Congressfolk will have to be taken into a back room and shown the REAL economic data to get them to pass another humongous stimulus plan?   They won't need threats of a financial meltdown this time -- just give 'em the unadorned truth.   Wonder if the TP members would fall for it anyhow?

sun tzu's picture

There won't be another stimulus. 

tekhneek's picture

They left out the "$300 milk" estimates

Long-John-Silver's picture

You missed a zero. $3,000 milk.

RockyRacoon's picture

The site had a smiliing Glenn Beck in a Goldline adlet.   Piss on it -- I shut 'er down.

sun tzu's picture

Who gives a fuck about Glenn Beck. Some people try to discredit gold by pointing to Glenn Beck. Glenn Beck drinks water, so maybe those people should stop drinking water

RockyRacoon's picture

Beck sucks.  I don't know how to put it any more eloquently.

buzzsaw99's picture

Funny reading the puppeteers analyze the words and actions of the puppets.

TruthInSunshine's picture

+2.75 (formerly 1, but inflation's a bitch)

The Cash Flow is King's picture

Keep looking to the CPI to show that we are not priming the Dollar for its ultimate doom...

Keep looking to housing to show that inflation isn't a fear. 

Ignore the fact that the Fed balance sheet skyrocketed. 

buzzsaw99's picture


August 2011 CPI data are scheduled to be released on September 15, 2011.

2011 FOMC Meeting September, 20-21.

All "they" had to do was get the cpi down for one month to give the fed cover to run the presses.

Sequitur's picture

Can't they just say no?

At this point, frankly I wish China, Japan and the other countries would stop buying our debt. Plainly, discipline is not forthcoming from within. So why do these foreign countries persist in buying our worthless paper?

NotApplicable's picture

Because the payoff is ownership of the sheeple.

Esso's picture

And then what? The only thing you can do with sheep is shear them or slaughter them.

Ack! Nevermind.