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The Addbacks: +22K From Seasonal; +206K From Birth Death
The seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll number rose by 115K in April. That's great: it was a miss but such is life. Here is what the unadjusted data that led to this number says. The seasonal addback in April was +22K, a rapid break from the last 3 years when April saw a negative seasonal adjustment following the traditional huge positive adjustments in the January-March period, which in turn means that the record warm winter give back has not even started! As a result, the seasonal addbacks in 2012 are now a massive 4,499,000 jobs: jobs that have not been added but are expected to materialize based on historical seasonal patterns. And just as importantly, in April the Birth-Death addition was a whopping 206K, far greater than the comparable addition in 2010 and 2011, and much bigger than expected, which brings the year total now to a +20K cumulative total. It means, that by rough estimation, the reality is that in April the unadjusted, unbirth/deathed number was a decline of -111,000, and likely far worse once the true weather adjustments start taking place. This number is corroborated by the Household Survey which dropped by 169,000. So much for the recovery.
Below are the seasonal addbacks to the adjusted number (vs the non-seasonally adjusted monthly number).
This is how this trend looks historically:
And the birth-death adjustment:
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Oh yeah.....forgot about the addbacks.
That's a lot of Walmart jobs.
Actually, it's a few keystrokes in an excel workbook.
We are back in the USSR with this arcane Ministry-of-Truth type manipulation.
Shouldn't surprise anyone with half a brain...Relying on economic statistics created by a governmental agency that benefits...the current government...
206,000! Man their balls are getting big with the lies. I'd like to know just what these 206,000 new businesses are. Al I see is more stores getting hut down around here. We had two shut down this week.
Dr. Engali
"I'd like to know just what these 206,000 new businesses are."
Service industry, like Hooker and Dope Dealer.
cocaine farmers
sheep herders
Detainment Construction Contractors
Printing Toner Manufacturers
Repo Businesses
Private Security Manpower Suppliers
Green Shoots are everywhere if you know where to look.
I just love talking about the UI rate with the average Joe and seeing the look on their face when I show them a chart of how UI drops almost 100% in line with the drop in labor participation.
Yes idiot, less people looking for work creates the illusion that UI is going down..
Nice analysis, just shows how REALLY bad the economy is.
Shameful. BLS need to drop the "L". All need to keep in mind these are political figures not economic figures. They've long since lost their objectivity.
No need to drop it, it's just BS packed with Lies
But honey, it's not as bad as it looks..
Really.. would I lie to you?
Try explaining the concept of a birth/death adjustment and seasonality to a 6 year old, they'll look at you like you're retarded. There's a reason for that...
The truth is now whatever the current regime declares it to be. Sadly, this isn't a historical anomaly, but simply another manifestation of human nature. Which unfortunately never seems to change...
... and the Ministry of Plenty has increased our chocolate ration from 30 grams to 20 ...
+1 LOL
Since when do the TBTF FASB rules apply to labor stats? As far as the Birth/Death adjustment goes , I think that it is accurate. Just this week I have had 3 kids knock on my door asking if they could cut my grass this summer. Those are the births of what someday could become global lawn maintenance powerhouses.
+ 1 for global lawn maintenance
It isn't just the youth who are soliciting this sort of work. Being (somewhat forcibly) retired since last July, I spend a lot of time working on my lawn, hedges (the plant variety), trees, etc. Earlier this week I was up in a ladder pulling down some palm fronds and a guy drives by in his work truck and stops. He says - in a friendly manner - that I'm taking his work by doing it myself. I must get two or three drive-bys each week asking if I have any work that needs doing. I simply say no, I need the exercise.
I wonder why they never interview one of the people from the BLS.....its aways an analist...or economist....
Yes this number will get better every month until after the election....its to get their Obama reelected...the SEIU is all in for Obama...the details of this number is way to difficult for the Joe on the Street....just the headline...and for a 15 second soundbite for a Wasserman-?????? that is al she needs...
+1 ANAList. Brilliant!
This (and ZHs exposure of the fraud) makes it soo easy for those like us to beat Wall Street. My friend that runs $ for Fidellity is amazed by my abillity to beat the street on this stuff.
Going out on a limb and saying next month WILL be under 100k.
Ignoring reality and adding almost 5 million jobs based upon something from the past? Beyond totaly insane!
USSR Government: " Comrades, we are living better now!"
USSR People: "We are happy for you!"
USA Government: "We all employed now!"
USA People: "We are happy for you!"
I think the birth-death adjustment should be called the "stillborn" factor.
492k jobs were added on a non seasonally adjusted basis for people 25 and older. Makes you wonder why market pundits get their panties in a bunch when high school and college students don't work. Those entry level service jobs must be so meaningful to US economic dominance.
HYPE AND BLAME!! I LOVE IT!
I cannot wait for MDB's post on this thread! Election year it is all going to be good. The problem is even sheeple with any math skills can see through this pack of lies.
MDB only posts at the top of a thread. Threadjacking is his game.
AND I’m seeing a lot more people begging and homeless here in the San Fernando Valley of LA in the past few months
You need to proceed to your local BLS for reprogramming.