Adding Insult To Injury, Goldman Cuts US Q1 GDP To 1.9%

Tyler Durden's picture

Remember that very disappointing Q1 GDP print of 2.2%? Well, Goldman just dragged it even lower.

Wholesale inventories increased by 0.3% (month-over-month), less than the consensus had forecast. The result was also below the rate of wholesale inventory growth assumed by the Commerce Department in its advance estimate of Q1 GDP. As a result, the report implies a possible downward revision to Q1 GDP. Based on available data, we now expect that Q1 GDP will be revised down to +1.9% (annualized) from +2.2% originally report (the wholesale inventory report accounts for one tenth of the expected downward revision). Tomorrow’s trade report could also affect expected revisions to Q1 GDP. We made no changes to our tracking estimate of Q2 GDP (still +2.0%).

"Still" at 2.0%. We give that "still" about a week, before consensus Q1 GDP is slashed to 1.3%. The "New QE" brigade is out in full force and demands blood.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
5880's picture

Is there a "-" in front of that?

bdc63's picture

not yet, but soon ...

redpill's picture

Anyone have some Dramanine?  I'm starting to feel QEasy

Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Start up company seeking fresh capital - 

Our business will build the best guillotine in the World. Not only will it chop the head off any douche bag banker, it will do it slowly with as much pain as possible.

The rusty blade is dull and jagged, but cleans easily. Our guillotine often has to be dropped twice since the first drop only gashes the back of the fucktard banker's neck. 

While he winces and cries out in pain crowds will cheer as you slowly retract the blade for another try.

Our truly unique product will bring joy to your mobs and make you the most popular hooded executioner on the block.

Call today for a company prospectus!

sabra1's picture

my company manufactures cans large enough to place said heads in. in large bold letters, "KICK ME!" is printed!

tuttisaluti's picture

We could use the heads to feed the porks.

The trend is your friend's picture

Goldman needs money.  QE4.  The way to get it is to lower estimates and drag the indexes down 15-20%. 

midgetrannyporn's picture

They should buy a one year cd at ally that pays 1.09%.


LaLiLuLeLo's picture

I just cashed out of all my CDs making around .45%. LOL indeed. Gonna wait for this gold to get juicy then...BLAM!       Gallagher style

JustObserving's picture

If you had an honest number for inflation, you would have "-" in front of that.

giovanni_f's picture

its between -4% and -6% adjusted for real inflation.

SheepDog-One's picture

Ooooo GDP takes an arrow to the knee!

Divided States of America's picture

Effin PPT working overtime this week....they basically work at TWO closes...European close and US close. And they probably charge for the OT on taxpayers expense.

Chaffinch's picture

Where exactly is the boundary between 'normal' PPT buying and full-on Nationalisation?

NotApplicable's picture

Dead center between cognitive and dissonance.

Apathy, it's what's for dinner (and breakfast, and lunch...).

LawsofPhysics's picture

Real GDP is what?  < crickets > 

PicassoInActions's picture

anything for QE, we sale, we rumor, we brainwash, we lie and we cheat.... but unlike most of we get the results.

Ho(no)rable Goldmanites.

bdc63's picture

Friends in high places sometimes want favors ...

EscapeKey's picture

I was wondering what caused the DJIA reversal.

I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

No that was the headline

Pasok-Syriza Memorandum Agreement

Now we drift lower until the Europe close and obligatory ramp at 11:30

EscapeKey's picture

-75 now. Someone spiked the punchbowl again.

Someone is desperate for a "green" day.

I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

Nah - they were just front-run

We are now fully clear for takeoff

gaoptimize's picture

Plunge Protection Team getting control of the situation so the 2:45 manipulation does seem so predictable?

NotApplicable's picture

What they'll need next is a flexible measurement of time to further obscure the ramifications of their flexible measure of value.

Central Banksterin' is hard!

insanelysane's picture

Is it negative without QETwistPrint?

Temporalist's picture

LET'S TWIST AGAIN Like We Did Last Summer


The Chubby Checker Depression

JR's picture

What an incredible, apropos version find, with Chubby exuding all the excitement of Wall Street –

Come on! Let’s twist again, like we did last summer. Yeah! Let’s twist again, like we did last year.

“Do you remember when, things were really hummin’? Yeah, let’s twist again, twisting time is here.

Yeeee! Around and around and up and down we go again….

Who’s that flying up there? Is it a bird? Nooo! Is it a plane? Nooo! Is it the Twister! Yeahhh. (It’s Twister Ben!)

Come on, let’s twist again… Like we did last summer! Let’s twist again, like we did last year.  

Twistin’ time is here! !

Rainman's picture

Expect an entire brigade of QE pumpers to mount a furious assault on the Fed for the rest of the month.

bdc63's picture

I've had CNBC on all morning -- frankly, I'm surprized the QE pumping hasn't started already. 

I think they're waiting for crude to get below $90 and then they will hit it hard.





NotApplicable's picture

They likely have, but they've yet to give it its new name. Also, since it's


they'll save it for the politicos (all while blaming same politicos).

CrashisOptimistic's picture

QE is not about economics now, people.  QE is now about the calendar and it's too late.

Bernanke, like every Fed chairman who has ever sat there, cares 15000% more about retaining Fed independence from government control than he cares about any maneuvers to do anything.

It's too close to the election.  He can't act without the GOP removing his independence.  This is a risk he will not take.

No QE until after election day.



Temporalist's picture

You may be right.  But then again as Jim Rickards mentions it should happen just before the election but not so close that it will be seen as an election stunt favoring Obama.

It should happen, according to Rickards, sometime before August.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

I am not familiar with Rickards as a ZH commenter, and only ZH commenters have any value.

The rest are subscription hunters and should be ignored.

Rainman's picture makes Fed-sense to keep an ambivalent, math ignorant ass in the driver's seat on PA avenue.

bdc63's picture

A tanking stock market and a GDP recession print would be A LOT more devastating to the re-election hopes of a sitting president than standing by and watching as the "independant" FED releases another round of QE (called something else of course) ...

When you are in a debate with Romney, would you rather have to explain

1). why we're in a recession and the stock market is down 20% and you aren't doing one damned thing to improve it


2). even though the FED released another round of QE that you had ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH IT, 'cause as we all know, the Federal Reserve is independent and does not answer to our government.

QE to the moon, and the next round is weeks - not months - away.

i_call_you_my_base's picture

Agree. We are talking about the American electorate here. 99 out of 100 will change the channel if the debate starts to be about the fed, and I also would guess that Romney would not want to come off as being associated with a Ron Paul-like argument. the media has labeled Paul as a kook and it limits romney's ability to talk about the fed.

Edit: I'm not suggesting that this would be a paul position, just that any talk about the fed will be spun that way. If Romney talks about it in any capacity, 100 bucks says the media headlines the next day will be, "is Romney courting paul supporters?" it doesn't matter if it's what Paul supporters or Paul believe or not. Talk of the fed = extreme views. That is how the media has defined it.

LawsofPhysics's picture

"He can't act without the GOP removing his independence. "

LMFAO!!!!  You act as if the Federal Reserve does not have complete control over both political parties.  Wake the fuck up!!!!.

JailBank's picture

FED independence? Really? Ben Bernake although not popular opinion is a human being. Ben knows he is a gonner if Obama isn't reelected. You think he wants to give up that power? QE before the election no doubt.

LawsofPhysics's picture

LMFAO!!!!  Are we talking about the same Fed chairman that was appointed by Bush?  Yeah I am sure that Rhobamney will appoint someone better-  FAIL.

Temporalist's picture

Yea a Romney presidency would try to appoint 2 Bernanke's; one for each corrupt political party.

Shizzmoney's picture

The only thing the US exports today are DVDs, Digital Dollars, Irony, and Fail.

The first thing I said when I saw this, BTW?


Vince Clortho's picture

Wait a minute ... I thought we still made Life-Savers (the candy) right here in the U.S.

Jason T's picture

gas prices are down 4.3% from last year yet gas consumption is down 6.1% from last year.


how are we not in a massive recession right now?

Village Smithy's picture

6 trillion in new debt may have something to do with it.

CvlDobd's picture

Because we are in a depression?

EscapeKey's picture


Underestimate inflation. Underestimate the GDP deflator. Increase "hedonics/imputations" component.


Jeremy Roenick's picture

The "truth" slithers out in cracks and quivers.