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Adding Insult To Injury, Goldman Cuts US Q1 GDP To 1.9%

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Remember that very disappointing Q1 GDP print of 2.2%? Well, Goldman just dragged it even lower.

Wholesale inventories increased by 0.3% (month-over-month), less than the consensus had forecast. The result was also below the rate of wholesale inventory growth assumed by the Commerce Department in its advance estimate of Q1 GDP. As a result, the report implies a possible downward revision to Q1 GDP. Based on available data, we now expect that Q1 GDP will be revised down to +1.9% (annualized) from +2.2% originally report (the wholesale inventory report accounts for one tenth of the expected downward revision). Tomorrow’s trade report could also affect expected revisions to Q1 GDP. We made no changes to our tracking estimate of Q2 GDP (still +2.0%).

"Still" at 2.0%. We give that "still" about a week, before consensus Q1 GDP is slashed to 1.3%. The "New QE" brigade is out in full force and demands blood.

 


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Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment 5880
5880's picture

Is there a "-" in front of that?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:57 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

not yet, but soon ...

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:00 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Anyone have some Dramanine?  I'm starting to feel QEasy

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Start up company seeking fresh capital - 

Our business will build the best guillotine in the World. Not only will it chop the head off any douche bag banker, it will do it slowly with as much pain as possible.

The rusty blade is dull and jagged, but cleans easily. Our guillotine often has to be dropped twice since the first drop only gashes the back of the fucktard banker's neck. 

While he winces and cries out in pain crowds will cheer as you slowly retract the blade for another try.

Our truly unique product will bring joy to your mobs and make you the most popular hooded executioner on the block.

Call today for a company prospectus!

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

my company manufactures cans large enough to place said heads in. in large bold letters, "KICK ME!" is printed!

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment tuttisaluti
tuttisaluti's picture

We could use the heads to feed the porks.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:03 | Link to Comment The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

Goldman needs money.  QE4.  The way to get it is to lower estimates and drag the indexes down 15-20%. 

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

They should buy a one year cd at ally that pays 1.09%.

lololololololololololololol

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment LaLiLuLeLo
LaLiLuLeLo's picture

I just cashed out of all my CDs making around .45%. LOL indeed. Gonna wait for this gold to get juicy then...BLAM!       Gallagher style

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

If you had an honest number for inflation, you would have "-" in front of that.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:42 | Link to Comment giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

its between -4% and -6% adjusted for real inflation.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:57 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ooooo GDP takes an arrow to the knee!

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Effin PPT working overtime this week....they basically work at TWO closes...European close and US close. And they probably charge for the OT on taxpayers expense.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:47 | Link to Comment Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

Where exactly is the boundary between 'normal' PPT buying and full-on Nationalisation?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 12:06 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Dead center between cognitive and dissonance.

Apathy, it's what's for dinner (and breakfast, and lunch...).

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Real GDP is what?  < crickets > 

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:05 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Spending?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

 tax reciepts?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Minus 8%??

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:57 | Link to Comment PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

anything for QE, we sale, we rumor, we brainwash, we lie and we cheat.... but unlike most of we get the results.

Ho(no)rable Goldmanites.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:59 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

Friends in high places sometimes want favors ...

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I was wondering what caused the DJIA reversal.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

No that was the headline

Pasok-Syriza Memorandum Agreement

Now we drift lower until the Europe close and obligatory ramp at 11:30

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

-75 now. Someone spiked the punchbowl again.

Someone is desperate for a "green" day.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

Nah - they were just front-run

We are now fully clear for takeoff

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:13 | Link to Comment gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Plunge Protection Team getting control of the situation so the 2:45 manipulation does seem so predictable?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 12:09 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

What they'll need next is a flexible measurement of time to further obscure the ramifications of their flexible measure of value.

Central Banksterin' is hard!

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:59 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Is it negative without QETwistPrint?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:05 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

LET'S TWIST AGAIN Like We Did Last Summer

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRlT8ZoExGU

 

The Chubby Checker Depression

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:54 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

What an incredible, apropos version find, with Chubby exuding all the excitement of Wall Street –

Come on! Let’s twist again, like we did last summer. Yeah! Let’s twist again, like we did last year.

“Do you remember when, things were really hummin’? Yeah, let’s twist again, twisting time is here.

Yeeee! Around and around and up and down we go again….

Who’s that flying up there? Is it a bird? Nooo! Is it a plane? Nooo! Is it the Twister! Yeahhh. (It’s Twister Ben!)

Come on, let’s twist again… Like we did last summer! Let’s twist again, like we did last year.  

Twistin’ time is here! !

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:00 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

Expect an entire brigade of QE pumpers to mount a furious assault on the Fed for the rest of the month.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

I've had CNBC on all morning -- frankly, I'm surprized the QE pumping hasn't started already. 

I think they're waiting for crude to get below $90 and then they will hit it hard.

 

 

 

 

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 12:15 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

They likely have, but they've yet to give it its new name. Also, since it's

TEH MOSTEST 1MPORT4NT ELECTION, EVAH!!!111!!

they'll save it for the politicos (all while blaming same politicos).

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

QE is not about economics now, people.  QE is now about the calendar and it's too late.

Bernanke, like every Fed chairman who has ever sat there, cares 15000% more about retaining Fed independence from government control than he cares about any maneuvers to do anything.

It's too close to the election.  He can't act without the GOP removing his independence.  This is a risk he will not take.

No QE until after election day.

 

 

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

You may be right.  But then again as Jim Rickards mentions it should happen just before the election but not so close that it will be seen as an election stunt favoring Obama.

It should happen, according to Rickards, sometime before August.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:10 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I am not familiar with Rickards as a ZH commenter, and only ZH commenters have any value.

The rest are subscription hunters and should be ignored.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

agree...it makes Fed-sense to keep an ambivalent, math ignorant ass in the driver's seat on PA avenue.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

A tanking stock market and a GDP recession print would be A LOT more devastating to the re-election hopes of a sitting president than standing by and watching as the "independant" FED releases another round of QE (called something else of course) ...

When you are in a debate with Romney, would you rather have to explain

1). why we're in a recession and the stock market is down 20% and you aren't doing one damned thing to improve it

or

2). even though the FED released another round of QE that you had ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH IT, 'cause as we all know, the Federal Reserve is independent and does not answer to our government.

QE to the moon, and the next round is weeks - not months - away.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:45 | Link to Comment i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Agree. We are talking about the American electorate here. 99 out of 100 will change the channel if the debate starts to be about the fed, and I also would guess that Romney would not want to come off as being associated with a Ron Paul-like argument. the media has labeled Paul as a kook and it limits romney's ability to talk about the fed.

Edit: I'm not suggesting that this would be a paul position, just that any talk about the fed will be spun that way. If Romney talks about it in any capacity, 100 bucks says the media headlines the next day will be, "is Romney courting paul supporters?" it doesn't matter if it's what Paul supporters or Paul believe or not. Talk of the fed = extreme views. That is how the media has defined it.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:14 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"He can't act without the GOP removing his independence. "

LMFAO!!!!  You act as if the Federal Reserve does not have complete control over both political parties.  Wake the fuck up!!!!.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment JailBank
JailBank's picture

FED independence? Really? Ben Bernake although not popular opinion is a human being. Ben knows he is a gonner if Obama isn't reelected. You think he wants to give up that power? QE before the election no doubt.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LMFAO!!!!  Are we talking about the same Fed chairman that was appointed by Bush?  Yeah I am sure that Rhobamney will appoint someone better-  FAIL.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Yea a Romney presidency would try to appoint 2 Bernanke's; one for each corrupt political party.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The only thing the US exports today are DVDs, Digital Dollars, Irony, and Fail.

The first thing I said when I saw this, BTW?

"Niiiiiiiiiiiiiiice."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3CgRH8RlJs

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Wait a minute ... I thought we still made Life-Savers (the candy) right here in the U.S.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

gas prices are down 4.3% from last year yet gas consumption is down 6.1% from last year.

 

how are we not in a massive recession right now?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:05 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

6 trillion in new debt may have something to do with it.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Because we are in a depression?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Simple.

Underestimate inflation. Underestimate the GDP deflator. Increase "hedonics/imputations" component.

Done.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:05 | Link to Comment Jeremy Roenick
Jeremy Roenick's picture

The "truth" slithers out in cracks and quivers. 

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

BEA needs to sit down with the BLS to get the numbers under control... sheesh

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment valley chick
valley chick's picture

why do QE when a rumor of QE works just fine.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

Burger season is gonna take a hit this summer

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Our society really has become one big echo chamber of Cognitive Dissonance.  

The only plus is that people no longer see me as crazy, which is of little solace.

But we will still have people talking about improvement all the way down.

So we loaded up on like $5T of Fed.gov debt and we cannot even keep our head above water?

And now the states are starting to report just how shitty their books are?

We really are going down.

pods

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

You and me both.  I have been investing heavily in local areas because when this all burns or goes completely fascist, possession will be the only law that matters and all economies will be nothing but local (see what happened to Russia in the 90's).

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 12:03 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

LoPdood, any handy links on Russia reverting to local economies in the 90s?  Would be good reads.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Links?  LOL!  Let me guess, you think everything on Wikipedia is the truth.  Talk to a Russian who lived there.  When I was there we had two markets.  One that "the state" ran, fixed prices, where only rubles where accepted, and then there was another market, that accepted dollars, yuan, gold, silver, political favors etc.  The former was how things were "officially" done while the latter was how the wheels got greased so that we could get a project off the ground.  You tell me, which the two market transactions actually got recorded?  Moreover, look at how all the state officials lived, a bit better than their salaries might support.   Come on, you are smarter than that.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

What's up with the miners?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

SERIOUSLY!!!!!!!

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

And the US markets are setting up yet another rebound, with green starting to appear in the usual darlings like Starbucks, Whole Foods, Salesforce.com. 

This week Europe is down another 3% with US barely down 1%.  YTD, US markets up 7%, Europe down 4%.  Over the last three years US up 65%, Europe up only 10%.  And who has the bigger borrowing problem?  The Mediterranean periphery of Europe or the black hole at the heart of Washington?  Who still makes things the rest of the world wants?  The capital goods / engineering firms of Germany or the money printers in New York?

ZH loves to Euro bash, but the biggest ultimate disconnect is at the heart of the system, in the US.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

I have yet to see a post where ZH has said the EU is bad but the US is good.  At the moment the events are happening in Europe so we get the stories from Europe.  Have no fear, ZH is an equal opportunity basher.

If you are a dumbass economist/polititian/shill ZH will bash you.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 13:11 | Link to Comment Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

Sorry gjp I am one of those guilty of slamming the Eurocraps.  But make no mistake this is only the first half of the ball game.  The US is screwed and its politians are evil people.  Finally, the US media has failed to hold these people accountable.

 

 

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 13:57 | Link to Comment Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

I have not seen Eurobashing here at ZH, but I have seen plenty of socialist bashing, for good reason. Their cradle to crave entitlement system has been proven unsustainable, thus the innevitable collapse. The US is walking in Europes footsteps and will also collapse. Of course this is always the result of living beyond ones means.

        Amused to Death

Doctor Doctor what is wrong with me
This supermarket life is getting long
What is the half life of a colour TV
What is the shelf life of a teenage queen
Ooh western woman
Ooh western girl
News hound sniffs the air
When Jessica Hahn goes down
He latches on to that symbol
Of detachment
Attracted by the peeling away of feeling
The celebrity of the abused shell the belle
Ooh western woman
Ooh western girl
And the children of Melrose
Strut their stuff
Is absolute zero cold enough
And out in the valley warm and clean
The little ones sit by their TV screens
No thoughts to think
No tears to cry
All sucked dry
Down to the very last breath
Bartender what is wrong with me
Why am I so out of breath
The captain said excuse me ma'am
This species has amused itself to death
Amused itself to death
Amused itself to death
We watched the tragedy unfold
We did as we were told
We bought and sold
It was the greatest show on earth
But then it was over
We ohhed and aahed
We drove our racing cars
We ate our last few jars of caviar
And somewhere out there in the stars
A keen-eyed look-out
Spied a flickering light
Our last hurrah
And when they found our shadows
Grouped around the TV sets
They ran down every lead
They repeated every test
They checked out all the data on their lists
And then the alien anthropologists
Admitted they were still perplexed
But on eliminating every other reason
For our sad demise
They logged the only explanation left
This species has amused itself to death
No tears to cry no feelings left
This species has amused itself to death

Roger Watters 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMijMWQlnUc

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

So who died and made Goldman the keeper of all statistics?

Pretty much everyone EXCEPT the globalist banks were predicting between 1.6% and 1.9% GDP for Q1.

It speaks to either the incompetence or the corruption of the globalist banks... which explains why they are not competent to manage the world... only manipulate it. There is a BIG difference between being able to manage something and being able to manipulate something.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment PoliticalRefuge...
PoliticalRefugeefromCalif.'s picture

one lump or two?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

 

This isn't about "truth" or Goldman "admitting" anything.  This is a perfectly timed "GDP statement in a can" to get the QE3 ball rolling...period.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment SAME AS IT EVER WAS
SAME AS IT EVER WAS's picture

I really hate to see all of this churning go to waste. Somebody needs to put their hft algo machine to better use, like mabye line up some barrels of fresh milk.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

Awesome on this great news the indices begin their march to positive territory.

Truly a BTFD dummy market. It's not even waiting for europe close today!

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

The "New QE" brigade is out in full force and demands blood

The other Wall Street protest.  “What do we want?  QE3. When do we want it? Now!”.

Maybe they should abandon their office building, go down on the street in front of the New York Fed, and hold signs and chant like their contra Occupy Wall Street counterparts.  

I hear Brooks Brothers has pinstriped ponchos on sale today; you know, just in case it rains.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:47 | Link to Comment Sans-culottes
Sans-culottes's picture

Wait I thought we were in a recovery!?!? (sarc)

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

Always break the bad news slowly...

A woman goes on vacation and has her brother watch her cat for her while she's away. After a few days she calls her brother and asks "How's Fluffy"? the Brother says  "Oh, Fluffy died".

The sister is livid at her brother and says, " I can't believe how insensitive and thoughtless you are to just blurt that out like that". "You could have broken the news to me slowly so as not to shock me with that horrible news. Something like, the first day when I call you could have told me that Fluffy's stuck on the roof and won't come down. Then the next day say that she is getting weaker and things don' look so good. And then finally after a few days of preapring me, you could have gently said "sorry, Fluffy died'.

A few years later the woman goes on vacation again, she calls her brother and asks "How's Mom". After a second, the brother says "well Mom's on the roof".

 

I am new to Zerohedge, but I'm hooked! I have learned a lot here. The commenters are hilarious and tough as nails, It gives me hope that after the collapse, we will be fine, thanks Y'all!

I just sold 900 shares of FRGOX and am off to the pawn shop to buy a pound of the shiny stuff... Then I think I will go boating.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:55 | Link to Comment Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Do we need QE3 or do we just need the Fed to say QE3 is coming?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 13:58 | Link to Comment Jean
Jean's picture

This explains all of the gay marriage churn, don't want to talk about the numbers.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 15:58 | Link to Comment roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I love watching Capitalists whine for Socialist money while they bitch about citizens entitlements. What a bunch of Transvestite whores.

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