Adding Insult To Injury, Goldman Cuts US Q1 GDP To 1.9%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Remember that very disappointing Q1 GDP print of 2.2%? Well, Goldman just dragged it even lower.

Wholesale inventories increased by 0.3% (month-over-month), less than the consensus had forecast. The result was also below the rate of wholesale inventory growth assumed by the Commerce Department in its advance estimate of Q1 GDP. As a result, the report implies a possible downward revision to Q1 GDP. Based on available data, we now expect that Q1 GDP will be revised down to +1.9% (annualized) from +2.2% originally report (the wholesale inventory report accounts for one tenth of the expected downward revision). Tomorrow’s trade report could also affect expected revisions to Q1 GDP. We made no changes to our tracking estimate of Q2 GDP (still +2.0%).

"Still" at 2.0%. We give that "still" about a week, before consensus Q1 GDP is slashed to 1.3%. The "New QE" brigade is out in full force and demands blood.

0
Your rating: None
 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:54 | 2409955 5880
5880's picture

Is there a "-" in front of that?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:57 | 2409965 bdc63
bdc63's picture

not yet, but soon ...

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:00 | 2409982 redpill
redpill's picture

Anyone have some Dramanine?  I'm starting to feel QEasy

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:01 | 2409989 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Start up company seeking fresh capital - 

Our business will build the best guillotine in the World. Not only will it chop the head off any douche bag banker, it will do it slowly with as much pain as possible.

The rusty blade is dull and jagged, but cleans easily. Our guillotine often has to be dropped twice since the first drop only gashes the back of the fucktard banker's neck. 

While he winces and cries out in pain crowds will cheer as you slowly retract the blade for another try.

Our truly unique product will bring joy to your mobs and make you the most popular hooded executioner on the block.

Call today for a company prospectus!

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:19 | 2410063 sabra1
sabra1's picture

my company manufactures cans large enough to place said heads in. in large bold letters, "KICK ME!" is printed!

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:32 | 2410108 tuttisaluti
tuttisaluti's picture

We could use the heads to feed the porks.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:03 | 2409994 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

Goldman needs money.  QE4.  The way to get it is to lower estimates and drag the indexes down 15-20%. 

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:07 | 2410022 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

They should buy a one year cd at ally that pays 1.09%.

lololololololololololololol

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:30 | 2410096 LaLiLuLeLo
LaLiLuLeLo's picture

I just cashed out of all my CDs making around .45%. LOL indeed. Gonna wait for this gold to get juicy then...BLAM!       Gallagher style

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:09 | 2410034 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

If you had an honest number for inflation, you would have "-" in front of that.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:42 | 2410133 giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

its between -4% and -6% adjusted for real inflation.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:57 | 2409961 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ooooo GDP takes an arrow to the knee!

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:24 | 2410077 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Effin PPT working overtime this week....they basically work at TWO closes...European close and US close. And they probably charge for the OT on taxpayers expense.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:47 | 2410151 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

Where exactly is the boundary between 'normal' PPT buying and full-on Nationalisation?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 12:06 | 2410203 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Dead center between cognitive and dissonance.

Apathy, it's what's for dinner (and breakfast, and lunch...).

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:56 | 2409963 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Real GDP is what?  < crickets > 

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:05 | 2410002 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Spending?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:07 | 2410012 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

 tax reciepts?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:07 | 2410011 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Minus 8%??

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:57 | 2409964 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

anything for QE, we sale, we rumor, we brainwash, we lie and we cheat.... but unlike most of we get the results.

Ho(no)rable Goldmanites.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:59 | 2409971 bdc63
bdc63's picture

Friends in high places sometimes want favors ...

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:58 | 2409967 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I was wondering what caused the DJIA reversal.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:04 | 2410001 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

No that was the headline

Pasok-Syriza Memorandum Agreement

Now we drift lower until the Europe close and obligatory ramp at 11:30

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:15 | 2410054 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

-75 now. Someone spiked the punchbowl again.

Someone is desperate for a "green" day.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:32 | 2410112 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

Nah - they were just front-run

We are now fully clear for takeoff

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:13 | 2410043 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Plunge Protection Team getting control of the situation so the 2:45 manipulation does seem so predictable?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 12:09 | 2410207 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

What they'll need next is a flexible measurement of time to further obscure the ramifications of their flexible measure of value.

Central Banksterin' is hard!

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 10:59 | 2409976 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Is it negative without QETwistPrint?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:05 | 2409999 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

LET'S TWIST AGAIN Like We Did Last Summer

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRlT8ZoExGU

 

The Chubby Checker Depression

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:54 | 2410171 JR
JR's picture

What an incredible, apropos version find, with Chubby exuding all the excitement of Wall Street –

Come on! Let’s twist again, like we did last summer. Yeah! Let’s twist again, like we did last year.

“Do you remember when, things were really hummin’? Yeah, let’s twist again, twisting time is here.

Yeeee! Around and around and up and down we go again….

Who’s that flying up there? Is it a bird? Nooo! Is it a plane? Nooo! Is it the Twister! Yeahhh. (It’s Twister Ben!)

Come on, let’s twist again… Like we did last summer! Let’s twist again, like we did last year.  

Twistin’ time is here! !

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:00 | 2409977 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Expect an entire brigade of QE pumpers to mount a furious assault on the Fed for the rest of the month.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:04 | 2409993 bdc63
bdc63's picture

I've had CNBC on all morning -- frankly, I'm surprized the QE pumping hasn't started already. 

I think they're waiting for crude to get below $90 and then they will hit it hard.

 

 

 

 

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 12:15 | 2410220 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

They likely have, but they've yet to give it its new name. Also, since it's

TEH MOSTEST 1MPORT4NT ELECTION, EVAH!!!111!!

they'll save it for the politicos (all while blaming same politicos).

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:02 | 2409983 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

QE is not about economics now, people.  QE is now about the calendar and it's too late.

Bernanke, like every Fed chairman who has ever sat there, cares 15000% more about retaining Fed independence from government control than he cares about any maneuvers to do anything.

It's too close to the election.  He can't act without the GOP removing his independence.  This is a risk he will not take.

No QE until after election day.

 

 

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:06 | 2410010 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

You may be right.  But then again as Jim Rickards mentions it should happen just before the election but not so close that it will be seen as an election stunt favoring Obama.

It should happen, according to Rickards, sometime before August.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:10 | 2410033 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I am not familiar with Rickards as a ZH commenter, and only ZH commenters have any value.

The rest are subscription hunters and should be ignored.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:16 | 2410056 Rainman
Rainman's picture

agree...it makes Fed-sense to keep an ambivalent, math ignorant ass in the driver's seat on PA avenue.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:15 | 2410042 bdc63
bdc63's picture

A tanking stock market and a GDP recession print would be A LOT more devastating to the re-election hopes of a sitting president than standing by and watching as the "independant" FED releases another round of QE (called something else of course) ...

When you are in a debate with Romney, would you rather have to explain

1). why we're in a recession and the stock market is down 20% and you aren't doing one damned thing to improve it

or

2). even though the FED released another round of QE that you had ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH IT, 'cause as we all know, the Federal Reserve is independent and does not answer to our government.

QE to the moon, and the next round is weeks - not months - away.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:45 | 2410119 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Agree. We are talking about the American electorate here. 99 out of 100 will change the channel if the debate starts to be about the fed, and I also would guess that Romney would not want to come off as being associated with a Ron Paul-like argument. the media has labeled Paul as a kook and it limits romney's ability to talk about the fed.

Edit: I'm not suggesting that this would be a paul position, just that any talk about the fed will be spun that way. If Romney talks about it in any capacity, 100 bucks says the media headlines the next day will be, "is Romney courting paul supporters?" it doesn't matter if it's what Paul supporters or Paul believe or not. Talk of the fed = extreme views. That is how the media has defined it.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:14 | 2410048 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"He can't act without the GOP removing his independence. "

LMFAO!!!!  You act as if the Federal Reserve does not have complete control over both political parties.  Wake the fuck up!!!!.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:15 | 2410053 JailBank
JailBank's picture

FED independence? Really? Ben Bernake although not popular opinion is a human being. Ben knows he is a gonner if Obama isn't reelected. You think he wants to give up that power? QE before the election no doubt.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:18 | 2410058 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LMFAO!!!!  Are we talking about the same Fed chairman that was appointed by Bush?  Yeah I am sure that Rhobamney will appoint someone better-  FAIL.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:54 | 2410172 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Yea a Romney presidency would try to appoint 2 Bernanke's; one for each corrupt political party.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:01 | 2409986 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The only thing the US exports today are DVDs, Digital Dollars, Irony, and Fail.

The first thing I said when I saw this, BTW?

"Niiiiiiiiiiiiiiice."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3CgRH8RlJs

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:27 | 2410087 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Wait a minute ... I thought we still made Life-Savers (the candy) right here in the U.S.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:03 | 2409990 Jason T
Jason T's picture

gas prices are down 4.3% from last year yet gas consumption is down 6.1% from last year.

 

how are we not in a massive recession right now?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:05 | 2410004 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

6 trillion in new debt may have something to do with it.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:08 | 2410026 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Because we are in a depression?

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:19 | 2410062 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Simple.

Underestimate inflation. Underestimate the GDP deflator. Increase "hedonics/imputations" component.

Done.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 11:05 | 2410000 Jeremy Roenick
Jeremy Roenick's picture

The "truth" slithers out in cracks and quivers. 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!