ADP Comes Right On Target

Tyler Durden's picture


And... goldilocks. The ADP report, which was expected to print at 206K came just where it was expected, at 209K, almost magically so, in what is probably the closest number to consensus in a long time. The previous number was revised to 230K, which means this was the 2nd drop in 3 months, and the first drop of the 3 month rolling average in the past 6 months: peak private jobs? And while the ADP has historically been a horrendous predictor of the NFP headline, this gives no actionable hint to those wishing to trade the payroll data, which in turn means that if Bernanke wants to undo his "New QE" skepticism, the decision will have to wait until Friday when equities are closed.

From the Press Release:

Private-sector employment increased by 209,000 from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The ADP National Employment Report, created by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, is derived from actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month. Estimated gains for previous months were revised higher; the gain from December to January was revised up by 9,000 to 182,000, and the gain from January to February was revised up by 14,000 to 230,000.

The job breakdown is as follows:

U.S. Nonfarm Private Employment Highlights – March 2012 Report:

  • Total employment: +209,000
  • Small businesses:* +100,000
  • Medium businesses:** +87,000
  • Large businesses:*** +22,000
  • Goods-producing sector: + 45,000
  • Service-providing sector: +164,000


  • Manufacturing industry: + 23,000

More from the PR:

According to Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, “Labor market conditions continue to improve at a moderate pace. Employment grew in all the major sectors of the economy tracked in The Report, and across payrolls of all sizes. Today’s data marks the twenty-sixth consecutive monthly gain in private employment as measured in The Report.


“The March increase in private employment suggests that the national unemployment rate may have declined slightly last month. It would also be consistent with other indicators suggesting some firming of labor market conditions, such as the downward trend in unemployment claims and upturns in the components of consumer sentiment and confidence influenced by perceptions about the availability of jobs.”


Prakken added: “Employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 87,000 in March. Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 22,000 during that same period.”

Source: here and here

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Wed, 04/04/2012 - 08:29 | 2315863 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture




But some recent allegations on your mate Alex Hope...


Might be the reason for the closure of his Twitter account.





Seorse Gorog FTQEF. A?

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 08:44 | 2315896 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Payroll, unemployment and other statistics are bullshit to the point of being an irrational joke. Why certain people take these government numbers seriously is beyond comprehension...

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 09:15 | 2315987 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sheeple like believing the govt BS, makes them feel secure. Hell theyll believe ANYTHING. 

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 10:33 | 2316274 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Why is someone junking you?

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 09:04 | 2315939 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Yeah I caught that, everyone saw it coming. Kid didn't know shit (wasn't even old enough to ink a contract when bear sterns went under).

More hype, bullshit and greed.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 08:37 | 2315881 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Sllllliiiiiggggghhhhtttttllllyyy, BETTER than expected!

I've never seen that game played before.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 08:49 | 2315909 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea so where is the 'crisis' I keep hearing about, that will then usher in 'QE'? Frankly I think its all BS, they dont know what the hell to do except pull it along and Goldilocks the data.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 08:55 | 2315921 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

good news, if we keep this up for 8 years and don't get any population growth we'll be back to 5.5% UE. By that time debt should 25T-30T. If we all pay our "fair share" of 90% taxes we can keep the deficits under control. What a cuntry

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 09:00 | 2315924 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I guess Bernank better stage his much talked about 'crisis' pretty quick, crackhead equities dont seem to give a rip about 'good news' at all they want a crisis and they want their free fake QE money!

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 09:12 | 2315974 cnhedge
cnhedge's picture

expect non farm to miss this friday.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 09:25 | 2316013 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I'll be needing my rumor before Friday. And, yes Obama is not a US citizen.

Geithner's preparing rumor post haste per CNBC headline.

Oboama is still not a citizen.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 09:48 | 2316110 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

somebody please explain this to me.

we had one million or so new UI claims in march and at least 200,000 new entrants into the job market right?

yet the economy "adding" 209,000 new jobs is a sing of growth?


doesn't this show a we are continuing to hemorrhage jobs? that job creation can't come close to keeping up with jobs loss?

shouldn't the unemployment rate be going up not down?

did all 1 million people who filed UI claims in march find new jobs to replace the ones they lost?

how do you take a positive from adding 209,000 while losing over 1 million in one month...

what am I missing?



Wed, 04/04/2012 - 10:17 | 2316211 Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

The numbers are fake.  They're only telling U the + numbers, even though it's more like -1 million + 206,000 = -796,000 jobs.

206,000 jobs in a country of 300 million isn't shit.

How many people does anyone on this site know who recently said, "I got a new job!"

I haven't heard that statement in years.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 10:34 | 2316283 carguym14
carguym14's picture

Lots of low paying jobs..........which would be reflected in how much the gov is taking in in payroll taxes.

It'll all work out in the end........

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 10:20 | 2316225 Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

Good news = bullish

Bad news = bullish (it could be worse!)

Neutral news = bullish (at least it's not bad!)

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 13:55 | 2316354 Madrid2020
Madrid2020's picture

Once again Target,Burger King and McDonald's to the rescue!

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 13:32 | 2316990 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Would you like fries with that?"

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!