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ADP Number Confirms Relentless Erosion In US Manufacturing Base

Tyler Durden's picture


The October ADP Private Payrolls report, which is the butt of all jokes when it comes to accurate NFP predictive ability, has come and gone, printing at 110K on expectations of 100K, and down from a revised 116K in September. For those who actually care about the quality of jobs, services added 114K of the total 110K jobs, while good-producing jobs subtracted 4K, and manufacturing jobs as a subset declined by 8K. And then they complain that China is making everything in the world...

From the report: "Today’s ADP National Employment Report suggests that the recent trend in private employment remains moderate, and probably is below a pace consistent with a stable unemployment rate. This rate of moderate job creation reflects the sluggish pace of GDP growth exhibited earlier this year. Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 114,000 in October. Although down a bit from an increase of 122,000 in September, this increase marks more than 20 consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector declined 4,000 in October, while manufacturing employment declined by 8,000." Somehow growth came from small and medium businesses, while large payrolls declined: "Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 58,000 in October, down from the 64,000 jobs created among small businesses last month. Employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 53,000, and employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—declined 1,000." As for the fulcrum construction and financial sevices jobs, "Employment in the construction industry fell 1,000 in October, bringing the total decrease in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 to 2,131,000. Employment in the financial services sector rose a scant 1,000 in October."

Some pretty tables and charts:


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Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:33 | 1836166 GeneMarchbanks
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Aaaannnnddd it's gone...

... US manufacturing that is.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:36 | 1836176 paarsons
paarsons's picture

When I was a kid in college, Ross Perrot warned me of this.

I voted for him.

My professors called me a fascist.

Go figure.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:41 | 1836189 HelluvaEngineer
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Perot will have the last (dorky) laugh

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 10:00 | 1836476 DeltaDawn
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Ross is crying not laughing. This is no stinkin' beauty contest folks! There is only one candidate with wisdom and honor. If we don't get over his geeky camera style and see his substance, we deserve to lie in this bed we have made!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:34 | 1836173 Sutton
Sutton's picture

Tarriffs, boys.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 10:47 | 1836658 Stuck on Zero
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No tariffs.  Just don't allow Chinese products into the country.  Use the same sneaky underhanded tactics China uses.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:35 | 1836175 moskov
moskov's picture

I am more worried about Fort Knox has NO GOLD rather than manufacturing of America

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:50 | 1836222 SeverinSlade
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I couldn't care less whether or not the US has the gold it claims to have.  We don't have enough gold to offset 15+ trillion in debt, 60+ trillion in unfunded liabilities, $600+ trillion in derivatives, or the European debt load that the American funded IMF will need to help take on.

What I am worried about is the 99.9% of Americans that don't understand what the Federal Reserve is doing/planning to do.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:57 | 1836245 moskov
moskov's picture

That's exactly why FED is a big parasite of US economy. It sets the interest rate too low and punishing the savers all the way to the one dollar shop. What do you expect from those broke people NOT to invest more and produce things as they can't even catch up the pace of inflation.  Without the Sound base of currency and capital saving, even aliens could ''steal jobs" from America. In the mean time, Chinese are helping to support the broke Americans to maintain the lifestyle they have without declining too much and importing the FED'S inflation for them.


Many American people think they belong to the Elite's interest group in fact they are only being fed like their little pets before the endgame comes in

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:56 | 1836253 Vendetta
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BOTH are the only true value in the country.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:35 | 1836177 s2man
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Seasonally adjusted = Could you add some seasoning to that, to make it taste better?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:05 | 1836778 JW n FL
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steaming wolf penis.. I sat thru it all the way to the end.. it reminded me of surf punk back in the 1980's? or was it 1970's? whatever.. point being it was terrible but in a very watchable, leave smile on your face kind of way.

thanks! +1

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:39 | 1836185 RobotTrader
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Looks like yesterday was another buying opportunity.

Banks up big pre-market.

Same with 1999 hookers like JDSU.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:41 | 1836191 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

What did you buy yesterday?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:08 | 1836294 homersimpson
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He bought this:

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:49 | 1836445 ihedgemyhedges
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Here's my guess: a can of Vienna sausages, a 40 oz. Olde English 800 and a $1 powerball ticket................

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:52 | 1836228 WonderDawg
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Buying opportunity and then hold for how long? A day? A week? A year? Forever? Without a timeline, all predictions are bullshit. The larger trend is down. That's pretty obvious. Anyone trying to play these short term swings, good luck. Short The Fucking Spike is my game plan, which has worked out for the most part. A few losers but the winners have more than made up for them. Gonna strike out a few times when you swing for the fence, but the homeruns are glorious.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:55 | 1836247 Cdad
Cdad's picture

If you are inclined to short, may I direct your attention to consumer discretionary stocks.  Yesterday's put buying bonanza on the XRT was pretty clear...and select retail stocks are, once again, priced for the stupidity of Wall Street.

But good luck finding a those are becoming harder and harder to find now.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:02 | 1836275 WonderDawg
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I've got some March puts on CMG and LULU, and keeping an eye on some others. Nov puts on CRM, getting killed right now but they were cheap, and there is still time for them to turn into something if today's bounce doesn't last too long. We'll see. Keeps the blood flowing, though, eh?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:24 | 1836319 Cdad
Cdad's picture

The Street has finally positioned negative on shares available to lend here.  First time ever.

Few people also noticed the problem at the most important thing a retailer in this environment must do is Control Inventory.  UA has failed at this for quarter after quarter.  Ripe.  

**and now the kiss of death on Goldman just raised it to a buy.  Rally over.**

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:26 | 1836352 somethingisrotten
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Yep, another buying opportunity for your NFLX.  asshat

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:28 | 1836922 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Your rear-view mirror sure comes in handy.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:39 | 1836187 youngman
youngman's picture

Its the Unions and the Regulations....Denver just voted down a two week MANDATORY paid leave for ALL would have killed business....I am sure teh governent will implement it or they already have....but costs keep gong up.....moving things offshore where labor, lawyers, regulations are cheaper...makes sense to me...

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:49 | 1836215 merchantratereview
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So you agree humans should be (lowest wage) slaves?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:39 | 1836188 SamAdams1234
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Good news recession is OFF/

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:43 | 1836200 Cdad
Cdad's picture



Best headline of the day [so far]:

"Comcast profit rises, overcomes [C]NBC drag"

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:53 | 1836233 HelluvaEngineer
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You figure CNBC revenue would be great based on their schedule of back to back stock informercials.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:15 | 1836326 Cdad
Cdad's picture

This network's credibility is now a negative integer.  

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:26 | 1836350 Iam_Silverman
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"You figure CNBC revenue would be great based on their schedule of back to back stock informercials."

Until you figure in the over $800K owed them by MF Global.  You know, the ones that just declared bankruptcy?  I wonder how many of their other advertisers are also just a heartbeat away from failure?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:44 | 1836203 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

But Bloomberg's Betty Loon  says Michigan is coming back driven by manufacturing and demand from China for manufactured goods.


Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:50 | 1836223 Cdad
Cdad's picture

And Pete Najarian thinks basic material stocks are set to rip...never mind the collapse in manufacturing and disappointing car sales numbers.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:54 | 1836234 HelluvaEngineer
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He's probably selling calls, along with his brother.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:17 | 1836332 Cdad
Cdad's picture

P. Najarian is as dumb as a rock, and he will get paid on the open.  The New America...reward the stupid.  Inverse natural selection brought to you by the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street.

I'll be selling him at the close today.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:28 | 1836361 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Cdad, bon chance.  Nature has a way of evening the score with idiots.

This is a mad cow of a market . . . moaning in its throes, head tossing back & forth, streaming saliva . . . I only sell it short or buy paper PMs . . . the rest I will not touch.


"Come out of there my people, says the Lord . . . that you may not participate in her sins and that you may not receive of her plagues."

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:45 | 1836429 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I only sell it short or buy paper PMs . . . the rest I will not touch.

I use the exact same strategy...although I don't short indexes but rather individual stocks priced for stupid.

Question:  how many hours can the RSI on the EUR/USD chart remain at infinity?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:45 | 1836208 lizzy36
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Awesome, more cater waiters, less construction/manufacturing.

That is the way to American Exceptionalism: CATER WAITERS.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:47 | 1836212 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

I'd like to meet these small and medium business owners who are hiring. Hell, I'd like to meet just one. I call the whole ADP number complete BS.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:50 | 1836220 LawsofPhysics
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Anyone else notice that the government started hiring again?  Thing that make you go Hhhmmmm.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:02 | 1836274 rwe2late
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Apparently, statistically speaking, an economy can grow based on part-time hairdressers, casino workers, convenience strore clerks, pole dancers, and pawnbrokers.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 10:16 | 1836520 DeltaDawn
DeltaDawn's picture

There is also a boom in secondhand store clerks in my town.

Yesterday, I watched "Hoarders" just to remind myself how insane things have gotten. Show opened with the stat that there are 1 million hoarders. There are so many Americans who are completely dysfunctional. Makes me want to throw out my old stuff instead of donating and perpetuating this culture.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:29 | 1836366 Iam_Silverman
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"I'd like to meet these small and medium business owners who are hiring."

Well, since most of the jobs were added in the "service"industry, I think that these business owners are called "pimps".  You might not have met any of them as I'd bet you keep different business hours.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:48 | 1836214 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

US manufactures BS economic stats better than most others!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:49 | 1836217 junkyardjack
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We need to get Americans back to work by any means necessary

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:04 | 1836219 Youri Carma
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 U.S. 30-YR TREASURY BOND EXPANDS LOSS TO 2 POINTS AFTER ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT (Reuters) The 30-year Treasury bond briefly expanded an early loss to 2 points before trimming it back to 1-29/32, leaving its yield at 3.09 percent, up from 3 percent late on Tuesday.
Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:54 | 1836235 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Pure Relentless Torture

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:59 | 1836265 Village Smithy
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Employment is not going to improve until earnings start to seriously decline. Right now the equation is simple, high unemployment=low wages = low input costs=high profits. They will keep the pressure on the middleclass until that isn't working anymore. The talk is just noise.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:03 | 1836281 Coke and Hookers
Coke and Hookers's picture

This is a positive development. The service economy is the next step in the economic evolution and when it has finally replaced the outdated manufacturing economy, society will have reached the next logical step of advancement and prosperity. Manufacturing bad. Services good. Just ask any business school graduate or professor. They can't all be wrong.


Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:04 | 1836287 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

This must be that hopium obummer was dealing to get into office. Its so nice to have 18 years straight of horrific 'representation' all globalism all the time

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:23 | 1836341 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Why produce anything in the US when we can print money and the idiots in China will accept it for finsihed good?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 09:30 | 1836368 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

The CEO on TV last night said manufacturing will never "return" to the USA. He said, for example, when you pay an assembly-line auto worker here $70,000 and the fellow in China (or Mexico, Phillipines, Cambodia, etc) $10 day, there is no way manufacutring in the USA can compete.


I see this in other areas too.  Professional transcription, reading X-rays, ...anything that can be done overseas for a few pennies will never return.

Globalization really changed things.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 10:51 | 1836691 Stuck on Zero
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The American worker makes five times what a worker in China earns.  The American CEO earns 10,000 times what a CEO in China earns.  We need to outsource CEOs and government.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 10:35 | 1836597 dumpster
dumpster's picture

we are safe on manufacturing as macdonalds increasing share of hamburger market

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:33 | 1836966 JMT
JMT's picture

Some questions maybe some can answer regarding jobs & incomes

1) Small business are the 'mommas & the poppas'?? they don't exactly pay high wages with full benefits


2) In the NYC area, they say the majority of jobs created have been low paying positions paying around $34,000.  Now, $34,000 a year anywhere in the NYC area is barely below poverty wage for one person but I see normal looking adults working at places like The GAP. How do such people survive when rents are say $2,000 a month for a studio even in most of North Jersey & on Long Island??


3) Next, I am 36, but most of youth in America is not interested in anything that involves 'real work' or is too 'hard', they are too pansified and hooked on deisgner clothing,  you know the chi chi stuff with a nice label (still made in China) where there are now boutiques in Time Square?  

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:53 | 1837089 quacker
quacker's picture


This ADP report is yet another report that is outright bad, being called outright good.

A bunch of seasonal service jobs while the manufacturing base erodes further.

Outright bad being called outright good.

Just like last month’s bls. Subtract the Verizon workers returning from strike and that leaves only 58k private sector jobs, with another DECREASE in manufacturing jobs. Another month where the growth in the labor force exceeded the number of jobs. Yet this outright bad report was declared outright good.

We are in the Obama Era. And in the Obama Era, the bar has not just been lowered to the floor. A 5,000 foot pit has been dug and the bar has been placed at the bottom of the pit.

Every single month the situation on the ground for the massive majority gets worse and worse. Yet the government statistical lying machine and media spin machine declares it better and better.

It is a divergence in truth from spin that will end in bloodshed. We’re looking directly at something, and yet the Machine is telling us that the very thing we are looking at is not what it is. We don’t have a single net job in over a decade. The 1930’s saw millions of jobs created as did the 1970’s. The crappiest decades have even produced millions of jobs. And here in this era of outsourcing and free trade agreements, the last decade has produced not a one net job.

And we’re told this is good.

And in the White House we have the worst disappointment ever to hold that office – the biggest Wall Street sugar daddy bank bailout guy in the history of the universe, who has not lifted a single finger to stop the outsourcing.

And we’re told he’s good.

Bloodshed is on the way.


Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:11 | 1837170 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

It's ridiculous to assume the "manufacturing base is being eroded" just because less people are required to produce the same or even higher output. This is productivity at work, nothing else. Has the farming base also been eroded because today only 2% of all employees work in farming as opposed to 40% like 150 years ago?

It's all about output. Real farm output is higher today than 150 years ago. Just like real manufacturing output is higher than 50 years ago.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:39 | 1837316 quacker
quacker's picture

47,000 factories and 1/3 of all manufacturing jobs sent overseas since year 2000. But to you that's not erosion.


Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:47 | 1837367 quacker
quacker's picture

And I would add that total output is not the right measure, since it's subject to population and technology changes - relative output is the measure.

For isntance, we could probably lose 95% of all manufacturing and still beat TOTAL output of 1800.

Your statistics are junk. The measures to look at is % of workforce in manufacturing, # of factories and relative output.

Sure, go back enough years and you can always beat TOTAL output - but it's a garbage measure.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:32 | 1838956 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

US percentage share of global industrial output has been UNCHANGED over the last 20 years, at around 20-24%.There is no erosion of the US manufacturing base. It's a myth created by people who don't understand productivity.

Go look up the numbers then get back to me.



Has the "farming base" also been eroded? Because less people work in farming than in 1850?

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