ADP Number Confirms Relentless Erosion In US Manufacturing Base

Tyler Durden's picture

The October ADP Private Payrolls report, which is the butt of all jokes when it comes to accurate NFP predictive ability, has come and gone, printing at 110K on expectations of 100K, and down from a revised 116K in September. For those who actually care about the quality of jobs, services added 114K of the total 110K jobs, while good-producing jobs subtracted 4K, and manufacturing jobs as a subset declined by 8K. And then they complain that China is making everything in the world...

From the report: "Today’s ADP National Employment Report suggests that the recent trend in private employment remains moderate, and probably is below a pace consistent with a stable unemployment rate. This rate of moderate job creation reflects the sluggish pace of GDP growth exhibited earlier this year. Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 114,000 in October. Although down a bit from an increase of 122,000 in September, this increase marks more than 20 consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector declined 4,000 in October, while manufacturing employment declined by 8,000." Somehow growth came from small and medium businesses, while large payrolls declined: "Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 58,000 in October, down from the 64,000 jobs created among small businesses last month. Employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 53,000, and employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—declined 1,000." As for the fulcrum construction and financial sevices jobs, "Employment in the construction industry fell 1,000 in October, bringing the total decrease in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 to 2,131,000. Employment in the financial services sector rose a scant 1,000 in October."

Some pretty tables and charts:

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Aaaannnnddd it's gone...

... US manufacturing that is.

paarsons's picture

When I was a kid in college, Ross Perrot warned me of this.

I voted for him.

My professors called me a fascist.

Go figure.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Perot will have the last (dorky) laugh

DeltaDawn's picture

Ross is crying not laughing. This is no stinkin' beauty contest folks! There is only one candidate with wisdom and honor. If we don't get over his geeky camera style and see his substance, we deserve to lie in this bed we have made!

Sutton's picture

Tarriffs, boys.

Stuck on Zero's picture

No tariffs.  Just don't allow Chinese products into the country.  Use the same sneaky underhanded tactics China uses.

moskov's picture

I am more worried about Fort Knox has NO GOLD rather than manufacturing of America

SeverinSlade's picture

I couldn't care less whether or not the US has the gold it claims to have.  We don't have enough gold to offset 15+ trillion in debt, 60+ trillion in unfunded liabilities, $600+ trillion in derivatives, or the European debt load that the American funded IMF will need to help take on.

What I am worried about is the 99.9% of Americans that don't understand what the Federal Reserve is doing/planning to do.

moskov's picture

That's exactly why FED is a big parasite of US economy. It sets the interest rate too low and punishing the savers all the way to the one dollar shop. What do you expect from those broke people NOT to invest more and produce things as they can't even catch up the pace of inflation.  Without the Sound base of currency and capital saving, even aliens could ''steal jobs" from America. In the mean time, Chinese are helping to support the broke Americans to maintain the lifestyle they have without declining too much and importing the FED'S inflation for them.


Many American people think they belong to the Elite's interest group in fact they are only being fed like their little pets before the endgame comes in

Vendetta's picture

BOTH are the only true value in the country.

s2man's picture

Seasonally adjusted = Could you add some seasoning to that, to make it taste better?

JW n FL's picture



steaming wolf penis.. I sat thru it all the way to the end.. it reminded me of surf punk back in the 1980's? or was it 1970's? whatever.. point being it was terrible but in a very watchable, leave smile on your face kind of way.

thanks! +1

RobotTrader's picture

Looks like yesterday was another buying opportunity.

Banks up big pre-market.

Same with 1999 hookers like JDSU.

ihedgemyhedges's picture

Here's my guess: a can of Vienna sausages, a 40 oz. Olde English 800 and a $1 powerball ticket................

WonderDawg's picture

Buying opportunity and then hold for how long? A day? A week? A year? Forever? Without a timeline, all predictions are bullshit. The larger trend is down. That's pretty obvious. Anyone trying to play these short term swings, good luck. Short The Fucking Spike is my game plan, which has worked out for the most part. A few losers but the winners have more than made up for them. Gonna strike out a few times when you swing for the fence, but the homeruns are glorious.

Cdad's picture

If you are inclined to short, may I direct your attention to consumer discretionary stocks.  Yesterday's put buying bonanza on the XRT was pretty clear...and select retail stocks are, once again, priced for the stupidity of Wall Street.

But good luck finding a those are becoming harder and harder to find now.

WonderDawg's picture

I've got some March puts on CMG and LULU, and keeping an eye on some others. Nov puts on CRM, getting killed right now but they were cheap, and there is still time for them to turn into something if today's bounce doesn't last too long. We'll see. Keeps the blood flowing, though, eh?

Cdad's picture

The Street has finally positioned negative on shares available to lend here.  First time ever.

Few people also noticed the problem at the most important thing a retailer in this environment must do is Control Inventory.  UA has failed at this for quarter after quarter.  Ripe.  

**and now the kiss of death on Goldman just raised it to a buy.  Rally over.**

somethingisrotten's picture

Yep, another buying opportunity for your NFLX.  asshat

Kayman's picture

Your rear-view mirror sure comes in handy.

youngman's picture

Its the Unions and the Regulations....Denver just voted down a two week MANDATORY paid leave for ALL would have killed business....I am sure teh governent will implement it or they already have....but costs keep gong up.....moving things offshore where labor, lawyers, regulations are cheaper...makes sense to me...

merchantratereview's picture

So you agree humans should be (lowest wage) slaves?

SamAdams1234's picture

Good news recession is OFF/

Cdad's picture



Best headline of the day [so far]:

"Comcast profit rises, overcomes [C]NBC drag"

HelluvaEngineer's picture

You figure CNBC revenue would be great based on their schedule of back to back stock informercials.

Cdad's picture

This network's credibility is now a negative integer.  

Iam_Silverman's picture

"You figure CNBC revenue would be great based on their schedule of back to back stock informercials."

Until you figure in the over $800K owed them by MF Global.  You know, the ones that just declared bankruptcy?  I wonder how many of their other advertisers are also just a heartbeat away from failure?

wang's picture
wang (not verified) Nov 2, 2011 7:44 AM

But Bloomberg's Betty Loon  says Michigan is coming back driven by manufacturing and demand from China for manufactured goods.


Cdad's picture

And Pete Najarian thinks basic material stocks are set to rip...never mind the collapse in manufacturing and disappointing car sales numbers.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

He's probably selling calls, along with his brother.

Cdad's picture

P. Najarian is as dumb as a rock, and he will get paid on the open.  The New America...reward the stupid.  Inverse natural selection brought to you by the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street.

I'll be selling him at the close today.

Saxxon's picture

Cdad, bon chance.  Nature has a way of evening the score with idiots.

This is a mad cow of a market . . . moaning in its throes, head tossing back & forth, streaming saliva . . . I only sell it short or buy paper PMs . . . the rest I will not touch.


"Come out of there my people, says the Lord . . . that you may not participate in her sins and that you may not receive of her plagues."

Cdad's picture

I only sell it short or buy paper PMs . . . the rest I will not touch.

I use the exact same strategy...although I don't short indexes but rather individual stocks priced for stupid.

Question:  how many hours can the RSI on the EUR/USD chart remain at infinity?

lizzy36's picture

Awesome, more cater waiters, less construction/manufacturing.

That is the way to American Exceptionalism: CATER WAITERS.

dwdollar's picture

I'd like to meet these small and medium business owners who are hiring. Hell, I'd like to meet just one. I call the whole ADP number complete BS.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Anyone else notice that the government started hiring again?  Thing that make you go Hhhmmmm.

rwe2late's picture


Apparently, statistically speaking, an economy can grow based on part-time hairdressers, casino workers, convenience strore clerks, pole dancers, and pawnbrokers.

DeltaDawn's picture

There is also a boom in secondhand store clerks in my town.

Yesterday, I watched "Hoarders" just to remind myself how insane things have gotten. Show opened with the stat that there are 1 million hoarders. There are so many Americans who are completely dysfunctional. Makes me want to throw out my old stuff instead of donating and perpetuating this culture.

Iam_Silverman's picture

"I'd like to meet these small and medium business owners who are hiring."

Well, since most of the jobs were added in the "service"industry, I think that these business owners are called "pimps".  You might not have met any of them as I'd bet you keep different business hours.

ziggy59's picture

US manufactures BS economic stats better than most others!

junkyardjack's picture

We need to get Americans back to work by any means necessary

Youri Carma's picture
 U.S. 30-YR TREASURY BOND EXPANDS LOSS TO 2 POINTS AFTER ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT (Reuters) The 30-year Treasury bond briefly expanded an early loss to 2 points before trimming it back to 1-29/32, leaving its yield at 3.09 percent, up from 3 percent late on Tuesday.
ziggy59's picture

Pure Relentless Torture

Village Smithy's picture

Employment is not going to improve until earnings start to seriously decline. Right now the equation is simple, high unemployment=low wages = low input costs=high profits. They will keep the pressure on the middleclass until that isn't working anymore. The talk is just noise.

Coke and Hookers's picture

This is a positive development. The service economy is the next step in the economic evolution and when it has finally replaced the outdated manufacturing economy, society will have reached the next logical step of advancement and prosperity. Manufacturing bad. Services good. Just ask any business school graduate or professor. They can't all be wrong.


Vendetta's picture

This must be that hopium obummer was dealing to get into office. Its so nice to have 18 years straight of horrific 'representation' all globalism all the time

MFL8240's picture

Why produce anything in the US when we can print money and the idiots in China will accept it for finsihed good?