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ADP Payroll Print Of 206,000 Comes 4 Standard Deviations Higher Than 130,000 Consensus, Above Highest Wall Street Estimate
The global coordinated "feel good" rally is out in full force. First China, next Fed global bail out, and now ADP confirming that massive banker layoffs are actually beneficial, reporting a 206,000 increase in private payrolls in November. This compares to a consensus estimate of 132,000, and is above the highest Wall Street forecast of 200,000. In other words, first we get record volatility in the markets, and now we get record upside volatility in economic data after this number comes 4 standard deviations above consensus! More: "The increase in November was the largest monthly gain since last December and nearly twice the average monthly gain since May when employment decelerated sharply." Of course, this is not to say that America is actually making anything: "Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 178,000 in November, which is up from an increase of 130,000 in October. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector increased 28,000 in November, while manufacturing employment increased 7,000." Still, surely, the unemployed among the 99% will be delighted to know they were actually working all along.
Charting this ridiculous number:
More from ADP:
Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 12,000, and employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 84,000 in November. Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 110,000 that same period, up from the 67,000 jobs created among small businesses last month. Of the 110,000 jobs created by small businesses, 15,000 jobs were created by the goods-producing sector and 95,000 jobs were created by the service-producing sector.
Employment in the construction industry increased 16,000 this month, the most notable gain in employment in this sector since November 2006. Employment in the financial services sector rose 7,000 in November.
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Per Tyler's article yesterday on how it's becoming cheaper to eat out than to cook at home, McDonald's needs to staff up to meet this demand.
Two words: Holiday hiring
Exactly.
The numbers are seasonally adjusted.
Non-seasonally adjusted numbers are up as well. According to Bloomberg.
Seasonal jobs. They'll be gone in a couple months, but this is reason not to hear again about Obama's latest 'jobs' debt spending plan.
Maybe the government has hired thousands of experts in torture in anticipation for that bill :
http://www.aclu.org/blog/national-security/seriously-senate-considering-...
Senate Considering Repeal of Anti-Torture MeasuresYesterday, the ACLU and over 30 other organizations sent a letter to the Senate asking them to oppose an effort in Congress that threatens to revive the use of torture and other inhumane interrogation techniques. If passed, an amendment introduced by Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) to the Defense Authorization bill would roll back torture prevention measures that Congress overwhelmingly approved in the 2005 McCain Anti-Torture Amendment, as well as a 2009 Executive Order on ensuring lawful interrogations.
Obama making a comeback bid. Number fudging is a growth market.
If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.
Except that ADP is a private company, unlike the Bureau of Labor & Statistics. This does not mean nonfarm payrolls will be the same as there will no doubt be public sector jobs lost.
Holly shit, my shorts are going bust.
Solution: Buy more shorts!
ADP was always unreliable, but now it has gone full retard.
But the markets believe that shit, look at the ES!
Look at gold. Vertical since 8 a.m. Somebody DOESN'T believe that shit.
Count me as one of 'em!
You clearly don't follow gold well enough. Gold has been trading as a risk asset with a very high correlation to the EURUSD pair and the SPX. Gold has NOT been trading as a safe haven recently, partially because the number of speculative longs is at lows we haven't seen since 2009. The only time this year gold was trading as a safe haven for an extended period was in August before it was unable to maintain above 1900.
Full disclosure, I'm heavily invested in gold. Gold is not really going to pop until QE3. If the Eurozone collapses, gold will also collapse in the short term
Could one not say the 8:00am headline about central banks easing not be considered global QE?
It's technically not printing money. It does, however, reduce the cost to borrow dollars already in circulation. So yes, it is a form of easing, but it's not creating new currency, which is what quantitative easing generally refers to.
And don't forget yesterday's confidence indicator blow-out. All this at the end of the month, hmmm...
Everything fundamentally appears great with the economy so why the coordinated central bank efforts to save the world just an hour ago?
Exactly.
Holiday Help Employment Bubble.
Proof positive that the H1-B work visa program is good for 'Merican jobs -- just not 'Merican workers.
“It's the tide. It's the dismal tide. It's not the one thing.”
Sell everything for the love of god!
Sad to say, but I saw this coming. I like to peruse the job sites to see if there seems to be a pick up in openings or not. The past 3 weeks have been a flurry of ads for full-time white collar positions.
It is obvious that big businesses have been told to hire at a loss in order to improve the jobs number for the EOY. Watch for massive layoffs in 2012 to cut this excess holiday fat.
Again, A) what/where are these jobs and B) how much are these people making.
The answer to "A" is "retail sector" and the answer to "B" is "shitty pay".
I mean, sure, be grateful for the opportunity to make $7-$10 dollar an hour, with minimal benefits.
I think the "change" most voted for wasn't to have the opportunity to fight off a 4.5 to 1 shot during the interview process of getting a job that pays less than (at most) $23K a year.
But this ain't exactly champange poppin' growth, here. Quite expected, actually.
The employees in my company were just "co-hired" by Insperity. We're a small company and this lets us look like a big company for insurance purposes and so forth.
Are we counted twice now?!?
The only way you can tell ADP is lying is when they issue a report. Who listens to these MORONS..shills
They know that we know that everybody knows that these figures are pure fiction.
Moving into the realm of pure fantasy now.
Bankrupt central banks gathering together to bailout bankrupt countries, the tooth fairy in charge of ADP stats, the Bernanke fairy in charge of ES...fairy floss, rainbows, unicorns and opium for all.
Total bullshit.
Smelly smelly total bullshit.
Fudge
Temporary holiday workers. There is always a huge surge in floor stackers for black friday. Celebrating the fact that a few thousand minimum wage workers got hired for a month doesn't fix the economy. YAY THE STCK MARKET IS GOING TO JUMP 5% AND MAKE RICH PEOPLE RICHER!!!! THE WORLD IS SAVED!!!!
Sure it does. Number one producer of food stamps and financial derivatives.
That's a lot of Santas!
Half Santas, half anti-PM trolls.
The OWS crowd have been there so long they are now counted as full time workers
Bye bye "crisis" (what crisis?). Merry Christmas and a happy, prosperous 2012. Boring world we live in.
I was in Best Buy last night and the place was like a ghost town. Certainly not anything like I would have expected for the holiday season.
step 1 : agree among your local business community to hire holiday workers
step 2 : hire unemployed people with large families to support (buy presents for)
step 3 : offer holiday workers (bank-supported) store credit cards to buy stock incentivised with (small) staff discounts
step 4 : pay holiday workers not very much
step 5 : between holiday workers and casual buyers, shift as much stock as possible
step 6 : fire holiday workers
result : uptick in pre-xmas employment and newly-employed credit availability leads to stock liquidation, increased debt with later equal or greater downward move in employment.
Exactly. The corporations are in a Catch 22.
They can't just keep sitting on their (debt laden) cash profits, otherwise they'll be seen as nitty AND no one will have cash to buy their (undervalued) crap. Layoffs/stagnation also effects the stock price.
So, to look good and to "pitch in", they hire people....but on their terms, and most are based on over-hyped demand that doesn't really exist. It doesn't really help in the sense that sure, people are getting hired and getting a paycheck, but the average pay these workers get no where keeps up with inflation/cutting into household debt/rising costs. It also helps the stock price, in the short term....."Hey, we are hiring! Life is good!!! Don't worry, stockholders, it won't effect the bottom line when we cut these sorry assholes in March!!!111"
That's why I hate it when the market goes up on the ADP number; don't just tell me HOW many jobs are created. Tell me HOW MUCH these people are making.
When wages go UP, that's when shit is really starting to turn around. Just hiring people isn't good enough (although better than nothing for us serfs).
Hiring MORE people at LOWER wages while the USD is LOSING its value and COSTS continue ot rise, is not growth.
It's patient-fed cyanide suicide.
This is the artificial stimulation that I wrote about in "Fiat Addiction". Every time you see money mentioned, substitute the word, "cocaine"
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
let me share the real world at the fortune 300 i work at as opposed to headlines. hiring keeps getting pushed back and if its an area we really need than we're either hiring in india or low cost recent college grads in tier 2 cities since they're cheaper than the NYC area where we're located. that's right my company has no desire to hire highly skilled well compensated people in the NY metropolitan area because its too costly. this has been going on for years in spurts. we're circling the drain as our standard of living and independence slowly circle the toilet bowl.
Since 4, 5 and 6 Standard deviation moves have on a weekly / daily basis.... I think its time we look at the formulas b/c this is breaking the percentages. These moves are now the norm let figue out how to make $ from them and assumin they will continue to occure often.
All the jobs are holiday related, lets see if they stick in Feb... more service jobs fairly soon we'll all be serving coffee back n forth to eachother.