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ADP Payroll Print Of 206,000 Comes 4 Standard Deviations Higher Than 130,000 Consensus, Above Highest Wall Street Estimate

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The global coordinated "feel good" rally is out in full force. First China, next Fed global bail out, and now ADP confirming that massive banker layoffs are actually beneficial, reporting a 206,000 increase in private payrolls in November. This compares to a consensus estimate of 132,000, and is above the highest Wall Street forecast of 200,000. In other words, first we get record volatility in the markets, and now we get record upside volatility in economic data after this number comes 4 standard deviations above consensus! More: "The increase in November was the largest monthly gain since last December and nearly twice the average monthly gain since May when employment decelerated sharply." Of course, this is not to say that America is actually making anything: "Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 178,000 in November, which is up from an increase of 130,000 in October. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector increased 28,000 in November, while manufacturing employment increased 7,000." Still, surely, the unemployed among the 99% will be delighted to know they were actually working all along.

Charting this ridiculous number:

More from ADP:

Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 12,000, and employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 84,000 in November. Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 110,000 that same period, up from the 67,000 jobs created among small businesses last month. Of the 110,000 jobs created by small businesses, 15,000 jobs were created by the goods-producing sector and 95,000 jobs were created by the service-producing sector.

 

Employment in the construction industry increased 16,000 this month, the most notable gain in employment in this sector since November 2006. Employment in the financial services sector rose 7,000 in November.

 

 

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Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:28 | 1929402 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Per Tyler's article yesterday on how it's becoming cheaper to eat out than to cook at home, McDonald's needs to staff up to meet this demand.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:42 | 1929478 Boba Fiat
Boba Fiat's picture

Two words: Holiday hiring

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:50 | 1929539 JiminGA
JiminGA's picture

Exactly.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:51 | 1929544 MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

The numbers are seasonally adjusted.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:04 | 1929627 citrine
citrine's picture

Non-seasonally adjusted numbers are up as well. According to Bloomberg.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 14:43 | 1931498 Mauibrad
Mauibrad's picture

Seasonal jobs.  They'll be gone in a couple months, but this is reason not to hear again about Obama's latest 'jobs' debt spending plan.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:29 | 1929403 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Maybe the government has hired thousands of experts in torture in anticipation for that bill :

http://www.aclu.org/blog/national-security/seriously-senate-considering-...

Senate Considering Repeal of Anti-Torture Measures

Yesterday, the ACLU and over 30 other organizations sent a letter to the Senate asking them to oppose an effort in Congress that threatens to revive the use of torture and other inhumane interrogation techniques. If passed, an amendment introduced by Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) to the Defense Authorization bill would roll back torture prevention measures that Congress overwhelmingly approved in the 2005 McCain Anti-Torture Amendment, as well as a 2009 Executive Order on ensuring lawful interrogations.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:30 | 1929411 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Obama making a comeback bid. Number fudging is a growth market.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:45 | 1929498 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:55 | 1929567 MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

Except that ADP is a private company, unlike the Bureau of Labor & Statistics.  This does not mean nonfarm payrolls will be the same as there will no doubt be public sector jobs lost.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:30 | 1929415 Hober Mallow
Hober Mallow's picture

Holly shit, my shorts are going bust.

Solution: Buy more shorts!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:32 | 1929424 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

ADP was always unreliable, but now it has gone full retard.   

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:35 | 1929434 Hober Mallow
Hober Mallow's picture

But the markets believe that shit, look at the ES!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:40 | 1929472 Boba Fiat
Boba Fiat's picture

Look at gold.  Vertical since 8 a.m.  Somebody DOESN'T believe that shit.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:48 | 1929523 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Count me as one of 'em!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:59 | 1929581 MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

You clearly don't follow gold well enough.  Gold has been trading as a risk asset with a very high correlation to the EURUSD pair and the SPX.  Gold has NOT been trading as a safe haven recently, partially because the number of speculative longs is at lows we haven't seen since 2009.  The only time this year gold was trading as a safe haven for an extended period was in August before it was unable to maintain above 1900.  

Full disclosure, I'm heavily invested in gold.  Gold is not really going to pop until QE3.  If the Eurozone collapses, gold will also collapse in the short term

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:25 | 1929774 SAME AS IT EVER WAS
SAME AS IT EVER WAS's picture

Could one not say the 8:00am headline about central banks easing not be considered global QE?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:40 | 1929838 MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

It's technically not printing money.  It does, however, reduce the cost to borrow dollars already in circulation.  So yes, it is a form of easing, but it's not creating new currency, which is what quantitative easing generally refers to.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:35 | 1929433 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

And don't forget yesterday's confidence indicator blow-out. All this at the end of the month, hmmm...

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:35 | 1929435 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Everything fundamentally appears great with the economy so why the coordinated central bank efforts to save the world just an hour ago?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:02 | 1929975 fuu
fuu's picture

Exactly.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:35 | 1929438 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Holiday Help Employment Bubble. 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:36 | 1929444 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Proof positive that the H1-B work visa program is good for 'Merican jobs -- just not 'Merican workers.

“It's the tide. It's the dismal tide. It's not the one thing.”

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:37 | 1929446 CreativeDestructor
CreativeDestructor's picture

Sell everything for the love of god!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:37 | 1929450 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Sad to say, but I saw this coming.  I like to peruse the job sites to see if there seems to be a pick up in openings or not.  The past 3 weeks have been a flurry of ads for full-time white collar positions. 

It is obvious that big businesses have been told to hire at a loss in order to improve the jobs number for the EOY.  Watch for massive layoffs in 2012 to cut this excess holiday fat.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:38 | 1929458 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Again, A) what/where are these jobs and B) how much are these people making. 

The answer to "A" is "retail sector" and the answer to "B" is "shitty pay".

I mean, sure, be grateful for the opportunity to make $7-$10 dollar an hour, with minimal benefits. 

I think the "change" most voted for wasn't to have the opportunity to fight off a 4.5 to 1 shot during the interview process of getting a job that pays less than (at most) $23K a year.

But this ain't exactly champange poppin' growth, here.  Quite expected, actually. 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:38 | 1929460 joelr
joelr's picture

The employees in my company were just "co-hired" by Insperity.  We're a small company and this lets us look like a big company for insurance purposes and so forth.

Are we counted twice now?!?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:40 | 1929464 kill switch
kill switch's picture

The only way you can tell ADP is lying is when they issue a report. Who listens to these MORONS..shills

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:43 | 1929483 Kina
Kina's picture

They know that we know that everybody knows that these figures are pure fiction.

Moving into the realm of pure fantasy now.

Bankrupt central banks gathering together to bailout bankrupt countries, the tooth fairy in charge of ADP stats, the Bernanke fairy in charge of ES...fairy floss, rainbows, unicorns and opium for all.

 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:43 | 1929484 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Total bullshit.

Smelly smelly total bullshit.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:45 | 1929499 Hondo
Hondo's picture

Fudge

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:46 | 1929515 adr
adr's picture

Temporary holiday workers. There is always a huge surge in floor stackers for black friday. Celebrating the fact that a few thousand minimum wage workers got hired for a month doesn't fix the economy. YAY THE STCK MARKET IS GOING TO JUMP 5% AND MAKE RICH PEOPLE RICHER!!!! THE WORLD IS SAVED!!!!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:51 | 1929546 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

"Of course, this is not to say that America is actually making anything"

Sure it does. Number one producer of food stamps and financial derivatives. 

 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 09:56 | 1929577 Taterboy
Taterboy's picture

That's a lot of Santas!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:23 | 1930530 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Half Santas, half anti-PM trolls.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:01 | 1929607 Feduptaxpayr
Feduptaxpayr's picture

The OWS crowd have been there so long they are now counted as full time workers

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:04 | 1929629 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Bye bye "crisis" (what crisis?). Merry Christmas and a happy, prosperous 2012. Boring world we live in.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:08 | 1929643 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

I was in Best Buy last night and the place was like a ghost town. Certainly not anything like I would have expected for the holiday season.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:13 | 1929687 guiriduro
guiriduro's picture

step 1 : agree among your local business community to hire holiday workers

step 2 : hire unemployed people with large families to support (buy presents for)

step 3 : offer holiday workers (bank-supported) store credit cards to buy stock incentivised with (small) staff discounts

step 4 : pay holiday workers not very much

step 5 : between holiday workers and casual buyers, shift as much stock as possible

step 6 : fire holiday workers

result : uptick in pre-xmas employment and newly-employed credit availability leads to stock liquidation, increased debt with later equal or greater downward move in employment.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:18 | 1929714 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Temporary holiday workers. There is always a huge surge in floor stackers for black friday. Celebrating the fact that a few thousand minimum wage workers got hired for a month doesn't fix the economy. YAY THE STCK MARKET IS GOING TO JUMP 5% AND MAKE RICH PEOPLE RICHER!!!! THE WORLD IS SAVED!!!!

Exactly.  The corporations are in a Catch 22. 

They can't just keep sitting on their (debt laden) cash profits, otherwise they'll be seen as nitty AND no one will have cash to buy their (undervalued) crap. Layoffs/stagnation also effects the stock price.

So, to look good and to "pitch in", they hire people....but on their terms, and most are based on over-hyped demand that doesn't really exist.  It doesn't really help in the sense that sure, people are getting hired and getting a paycheck, but the average pay these workers get no where keeps up with inflation/cutting into household debt/rising costs.  It also helps the stock price, in the short term....."Hey, we are hiring!  Life is good!!! Don't worry, stockholders, it won't effect the bottom line when we cut these sorry assholes in March!!!111"

That's why I hate it when the market goes up on the ADP number; don't just tell me HOW many jobs are created.  Tell me HOW MUCH these people are making. 

When wages go UP, that's when shit is really starting to turn around.  Just hiring people isn't good enough (although better than nothing for us serfs).

Hiring MORE people at LOWER wages while the USD is LOSING its value and COSTS continue ot rise, is not growth.

It's patient-fed cyanide suicide.

 

 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:20 | 1929747 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

This is the artificial stimulation that I wrote about in "Fiat Addiction". Every time you see money mentioned, substitute the word, "cocaine"

http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:01 | 1929966 Rikky
Rikky's picture

let me share the real world at the fortune 300 i work at as opposed to headlines.  hiring keeps getting pushed back and if its an area we really need than we're either hiring in india or low cost recent college grads in tier 2 cities since they're cheaper than the NYC area where we're located.  that's right my company has no desire to hire highly skilled well compensated people in the NY metropolitan area because its too costly.  this has been going on for years in spurts.  we're circling the drain as our standard of living and independence slowly circle the toilet bowl.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:13 | 1930034 TheClub55
TheClub55's picture

Since 4, 5 and 6 Standard deviation moves have on a weekly / daily basis.... I think its time we look at the formulas b/c this is breaking the percentages.  These moves are now the norm let figue out how to make $ from them and assumin they will continue to occure often.

All the jobs are holiday related, lets see if they stick in Feb... more service jobs fairly soon we'll all be serving coffee back n forth to eachother.

 

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