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ADP Private Payroll Comes 8 Standard Deviations Above Estimate

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The US economic "indicators" have once again entered the magic unicorn-cum-Department of Truth zone as if to prove to China that when it comes to data fudging the US really can be unparalleled. The just released December ADP private payrolls jobs, which has been completely uncorrelated to the NFP for the past several years (R squared of 0.003), came at a ridiculous 325,000 jobs on consensus of 177,000 private jobs. As a reminder this is a carbon copy replica of what happened in December 2010 when ADP soared and the NFP disappointed materially. But all is fair in love and robotic kneejerk reaction stimulation: ES +5 points on this latest ridiculous datapoint. Oh, and proving the "validity" of the data is that the number was about 8 standard deviations above consensus - aka statistical noise.

Here is how the ADP number compares to consensus.

And the recent correlation between ADP and BLS, courtesy of Andrew Yorks:

The propaganda narative itself:

ADP today reported that employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 325,000 from November to December on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated advance in employment from October to November was revised down slightly to 204,000 from the initially reported 206,000.

 

The increase in December was the largest monthly gain since last December 2010 and nearly twice the average monthly gain since May when employment decelerated sharply. Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 273,000 in December, which is up from an increase of 176,000 in November. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector increased 52,000 in December, while manufacturing employment increased 22,000.

 

Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 37,000, and employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 140,000 in December.

 

Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 148,000 that same period, up from the 109,000 jobs created among small businesses last month. Of the 148,000 jobs created by small businesses, 18,000 jobs were created by the goods-producing sector and 130,000 jobs were created by the service-producing sector.

 

Employment in the construction industry increased 26,000 this month, which is up from an increase of 17,000 in November. Employment in the financial services sector declined 1,000 in December.

 

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Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:36 | 2035052 Pretorian
Pretorian's picture

What was that secret organization in Treasury with fat finger posted on ZH, controlling FED, manipulating market,currencies, country bonds and there destiny ......? ESF.....

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:41 | 2035077 French Frog
French Frog's picture

I'd love to know how much of the 375K is made by their 'seasonal adjustment' !

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:45 | 2035084 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

FYI seven states "estimated" their inital UE claims.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:10 | 2035141 Manthong
Manthong's picture

I was wondering what goosed the futures this morning.. but then I knew it would be something bogus.

Looks like it had a half life of about 20 minutes.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 11:21 | 2035426 Hugh_Jorgan
Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:50 | 2035095 Badabing
Badabing's picture

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203471004577140841495542810.html

19,000 jobs with Kodak alone. This will affect the whole industry. Without the film I’m doomed. I got canned Oct 15 by one of the biggest Labs and found work thank god. but now it don’t look so good. And I cant stand Fuji

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:49 | 2035326 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

Isn't the fact that we cannot commit corprorations for the psychopathic behavior or jail them for their crimes evidence enough that they shouldn't have the same rights as people?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 14:03 | 2036104 Badabing
Badabing's picture

The best of both worlds.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:35 | 2035053 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

This data is false.

all winter season temporal , no long term jobs...

 

this is the biggest fraud ever...

 

SELL THE NEWS

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:52 | 2035100 brew
brew's picture

ADP is the iowa caucus of jobs forecasting...

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:35 | 2035054 Clam McCain
Clam McCain's picture

bullish bichez - s&p to finish in the green!!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:36 | 2035056 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

I have a feeling ADP is going to pull a NAR one day.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:47 | 2035057 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Pada pa-pa-pa i'm lovin' it!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:39 | 2035058 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

So we can expect 6% UE tomorrow, with 72% participation rate?

Bonds still say the economy blows http://www.economagic.com/mgif/ECONOMAGIC!RCMT.gif 

*edit* LOL! at the loller spiking up and the yield on the 10Y spiking up.  Makes perfect sense..........

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:43 | 2035081 Hansel
Hansel's picture

How can you be sure bonds are saying anything?  When Bernanke or any other central bank intervenes, they go straight to the bond market.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:46 | 2035087 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Most of the time Ben likes the longer dated ones.  The short-term is saying GTFO of risk.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:09 | 2035146 Hansel
Hansel's picture

I thought short term was saying "look how much excess reserves we have parked at the Fed."  WTF do I know.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:36 | 2035059 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Algo-licious, baby!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:36 | 2035060 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

No, I will not serve food stampers. I'll just keep collecting until my 99 weeks are up.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:38 | 2035061 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

EUR/USD unimpressed, whereas the ES bots are overheating with Bid Explosion.  Guess ADP wants Obama to win, and bears to lose. 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:37 | 2035062 AU5K
AU5K's picture

Expiring business tax credits, bitchez!

 

Anyways, 8 sigma events are supposed to come along every few months.  Definitely expected 2-3 times per year.

 

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:02 | 2035128 distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

So now what am I to do with my pitchfork and torch?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:37 | 2035064 george1982
george1982's picture

shut the fuck up with that bitches shit!!!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:32 | 2037440 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Kwicher bichen.

And it's Bitchez, with a zed.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:38 | 2035065 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Perfect "news" to lift the presunrise futures blues...and then sell into.  Yesterday's session is all you need to know to understand that the market will have a very, very hard time moving forward.  Yesterday was an unbelievably bad session with almost ZERO participation.

They can "futures" the market all they want.  And I'll leave the argument about whether or not this data series means anything.  I don't need no data point or no analyst opinion to know that market is beyond vapor locked...

Don't care how high the intraday print is.  Sell it today.  

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:01 | 2035124 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Okay...futures bid followed on by the Roach Motel [SPY] bid was predictable...but is already being sold off.  Individual stocks never had a bid to begin with [especially momentum stocks I watch], and VIX instruments have been firmly bid both before and after the "creative" data point.  Selling in gold commenced immediately with the data point, so good luck with commodities today.

Again, yesterday gave you everything you needed to know about today's market behavior.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:41 | 2035295 Chump
Chump's picture

Out of curiosity, what momos do you watch?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 11:57 | 2035541 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Pick up a dart...throw it at the Consumer Discretionary sector.  You're covered.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:04 | 2035135 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Futures' up the market, polish up data turds and spray paint them gold...underlying message is 'No Hefty bags of free QE crack rocks'.

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:38 | 2035066 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

More frosting slathered on the cake made of crap...

Retail: "Oh my, what a pretty looking cake you have there."

Sell side: "Yeah, for only this much $$$, you can have a slice." 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:40 | 2035070 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Well, if I have to suspend reality, this beats the hell out of reality TV. 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:59 | 2035116 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Also suspending QE obviously...another long stretch of 'muddle-thru' as markets really do nothing at all for a long time.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:06 | 2035139 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Don't be so sure. We're at the end of the ABC correction that started the October lows. This thing might have a little more upside, but when it rolls over, make sure you get your shorts and puts in place, it's gonna be serious.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:14 | 2035163 Cdad
Cdad's picture

The market is three weeks into zero participation upside.  Good luck looking for MOAR!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:19 | 2035174 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

QE continues unabated Sheep Dog. Operation Twist, dollar swap lines and "infinite demand" for US treasuries when the rest of the world is dumping them. An unaudited balance sheet is all you need to qe infinity.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 11:26 | 2035444 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

exactly....you can't have these low rates just by saying it to be .....so treasuries are being dumped like crazy...and there so many people just dying to own the hottest ticket in town..the most insolvent of them all.....the fed is not using the helicopter, they are using those gigantic cargo carriers to buy up all treasuries to keep appearences up...just look at the rates in the countries that we know are being bought by the cb's..all low yields...now look at the countries were they don't participate...off the chart yields...now ask yourself..how are our yields so low?....just cause they say it ain't so does not make it so...

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:41 | 2035076 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Initial claims 372K SA, 535K unadjusted

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:48 | 2035093 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Goldman: "We suspect that the financial crisis distorted seasonal factors for many economic series, causing “seasonally adjusted” data to be relatively stronger in the winter months and weaker in the summer months. The reason is that the collapse in economic activity following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 was evident in sharp declines in many economic series that winter."

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/01/04/817881/tis-still-the-seasonal...

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:54 | 2035107 ajk24455
ajk24455's picture

The difference over the last two weeks between the adjusted and raw initial claims data totals about 260000 claims.  Almost completely wiping out th bullshit gain in ADP.  I guess the retailers retained some people another couple weeks to help with all the returns. 

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:28 | 2035225 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Retail sales data seems to confirm you thesis.  That group specifically should get hammered today.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:42 | 2035079 San Diego Gold Bug
San Diego Gold Bug's picture

My bad....I gave myself a year end bonus.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:44 | 2035082 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

It means no QE3.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:54 | 2035104 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All economic data and markets shining like Unicorns pure gold dust farts, impervious to any downside moves at all, yet everyone also jonezing hard for another free money fix like a back alley junkie.

LOL, hillarious.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:46 | 2035088 JMT
JMT's picture

Some recruiters I have spoken to here in the Boston area said that this December was the busiest in terms of hiring since the late 1990s and that hiring would even be stronger but the problem is lack of qualified applicants.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:52 | 2035099 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

If you're speaking with AccounTemps, that seems plausible.  Retainer firms who seek to place people for real jobs are being weeded out by the dozen these days.  Only the really well-connected are faring OK.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:46 | 2035089 JMT
JMT's picture

Some recruiters I have spoken to here in the Boston area said that this December was the busiest in terms of hiring since the late 1990s and that hiring would even be stronger but the problem is lack of qualified applicants.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:46 | 2035090 JMT
JMT's picture

Some recruiters I have spoken to here in the Boston area said that this December was the busiest in terms of hiring since the late 1990s and that hiring would even be stronger but the problem is lack of qualified applicants.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:46 | 2035091 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

I am just reeling from the AAII numbers this morning...17% bearish and 50% bulls....

 

wow. mid teens for bears?? hard to find a print like that, have to go back 1 year....

 

someone is certain....which is an invite to fade!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:56 | 2035111 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, yet all the big banksters still whining and begging for their free money QE at any minute too, which way do they want it? All-is-well market news, or free bags of market crack from Bernank?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:47 | 2035092 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

This from CNBC:

For all of 2011, employers announced 606,082 cuts, up 14 percent from the 529,973 layoffs in 2010.

The only reason 2012 will be an improvement is that companies are running out of people to fire.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:51 | 2035097 Zola
Zola's picture

They also tabulate voting results ! Hopium...

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:53 | 2035102 Burr's 2nd Shot
Burr's 2nd Shot's picture

8 sigma = new normal

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:02 | 2035127 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

8 sigma =

new abnormal

(my 2012 "meme")

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:12 | 2035155 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

8 sigma? They are only getting started. Next we'll see 10 sigma, 12 sigma, 100 sigma!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:31 | 2035244 Burr's 2nd Shot
Burr's 2nd Shot's picture

unicorns are a 100 sigma event

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 09:55 | 2035103 Wixard
Wixard's picture

I have noticed at work business has been so-so the past few months. Nothing spectacular but certainly better than early 2010.Better than early 2011 too.

 

 

I gotta go with what my eyes see, and im not seeing a recovery, maybe a short lived rebound. None of the important factors have really changed much.

 

 

And frankly short term surges in gas prices really put a limit on just how fast or how far any recovery can be. Especially when you consider just how little money is out there.

 

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:02 | 2035126 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bernank signaling 'No QE, suckers'. 

Oh well, maybe 2013. 

Muddle-thru.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:03 | 2035133 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Prisoner's dilemma: No trader worth his salt at an IB will take this ADP seriously.  They will trade ADP cynically, and fade it in large blocks. 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:05 | 2035138 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

So now they just don't care...

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:10 | 2035152 Odin
Odin's picture

HAH!...Futures are still down... Dumbasses can't even get their own fraud right anymore...

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:14 | 2035161 SpaceEcho
SpaceEcho's picture

"Magical unicorn cum department"... god damn, these Obama recess appointments are getting out of hand!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:28 | 2035221 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Recess appointments? It ould be one thing if he did this when congress was in recess. This fucker is appointing people while congress is in session. He has no regards for the checks and balances system, and we are speeding ever closer to dictatorship.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:15 | 2035167 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

#WhatCollapse? The doomers can pack their stuff. US economy grows, more jobs there. Obama re-elected because of this. No crisis. Boring world we live in.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:41 | 2035291 Odin
Odin's picture

Yeah I guess it would seem boring if you were too dull to see its intricacies...

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 14:10 | 2036129 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

In a few months, the mood in the US will be much better. More jobs, more growth. And folks will be more than willing to lend money to Obama. A run into t-bonds. Mark my words. Bye bye collapse.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:27 | 2035219 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

wasn't there a month, not that long ago where ADP printed at near 200,000, then NFP came out at 0?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:28 | 2035229 Your Creator
Your Creator's picture

I don't know, with this governemnt, it could have been worse.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 10:53 | 2035339 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Something is seriously wrong here. ADP is only reported on a SA basis, so you can't see the NSA numbers. 

Look at the competing SA and NSA charts for employment reports. Only ADP is different.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/05/employment-numbers-im...

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 11:24 | 2035439 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

December ADP not reliable.  Small companies everywhere put previously departed employees on the payroll again for one last time to tax them on P.S. 58 costs (group term life insurance benefits).  They then come off in January.  My guess is that ADP doesn't adjust for this stuff in their reported totals.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 11:35 | 2035469 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

oh, the humanity....

please make it stop.....

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 11:47 | 2035504 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Under Clinton, lying is love

Under Bush, lying is vengence

Under Obama, lying is recovery

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 11:49 | 2035511 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Let Obama's re-election campaign begin with the good jobs report. Yes, we have created more jobs then any other President? Nothing will stand in the way, and if you don't like the skewed lies? too fucking bad... Nothing this year is going to be real, NOTHING....

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 12:37 | 2035747 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

We can take them Straits of Hormonez; we got jobs, Bubba!

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