This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

ADP Private Payrolls Print At 133K, Miss Expectations; Manufacturing Jobs Drop Two Months In A Row

Tyler Durden's picture





 

That the ADP would miss today's expectations of 150K is no surprise: after all as we have been explaining for a while, the only way the Fed will have a green light to proceed with NEW QE if it so chooses at the June 19-20 meeting, is if the economic data suddenly turn horrendous. Which means tomorrow's NFP data is make or break: in fact, as far as markets are concerned, the worse the better - should a -1,000,000 NFP print come in, stocks will soar. Which is why the ADP print, which indeed was a miss, of 133K raised eyebrows that it wasn't bigger. Still, 3rd consecutive miss of expectations in a row, and 4th out of the last 5, it gives the BLS enough rope with which to hang itself, and potentially the president, who may have no choice but to sacrifice job creation "momentum" heading into the presidential race, in order to keep stocks higher.

Note the -2,000 change in manufcaturing jobs. We for one, can't wait for that "doubling of exports in 5 years" Obama promised 2 years ago.

From ADP:

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 133,000 from April to May on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from March to April was revised down modestly, from the initial estimate of 119,000 to a revised estimate of 113,000.

 

Employment in the private, service-providing sector increased 132,000 in May, after rising a revised 119,000 in April. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector increased 1,000 in May. Manufacturing employment dropped 2,000 jobs, the second consecutive monthly decline.

 

Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 9,000 and employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 57,000 in May. Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 67,000 that same period. Of the 57,000 jobs created by medium-sized payrolls, 2,000 jobs were created by the goods-producing sector and 55,000 jobs were created by the service-providing sector.

 

Construction employment fell by 1,000 in May, its second consecutive decline following six monthly advances that likely were driven in part by unusually warm weather during the winter months.

 

Employment in the financial services sector increased 8,000 in May, extending this sector’s consecutive advances to ten months.

And visually, comparing to expectations:

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:29 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Time to BTFD

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:32 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

.....while we're waiting for the revisions.

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:36 | Link to Comment Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Would the PPT please pick up the green courtesy phone

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:37 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

That green crap never works.

 

Pick up the red blinking phone please!

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:40 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

Isn't that the nuke the Russians phone?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Use to be......now it's the psychedelic painted "choom" phone in the VW bus.

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment El
El's picture

No. That phone is actually black.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I think it's only half black actually.

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:34 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

http://moneyland.time.com/2012/03/20/being-30-and-living-with-your-paren...

Being 30 and Living With Your Parents Isn’t Lame — It’s Awesome

...

The Great Recession has brought with it a reevaluation of the American Dream, and even whether a college degree is worth the money. Now, the idea of living at home with your parents isn’t associated with failure or a lack of achievement. More likely, young adults living with their parents are thought of as victims of unfortunate circumstances, with plenty of good company.

They may also be considered to be pretty smart customers: At the very least, they weren’t foolish enough to buy a home that they couldn’t afford—and that promptly declined in value by 50%. That’s what so many adults, young and old alike, did five or so years back. To homeowners who are deeply underwater or facing foreclosure, living debt-free in your parents’ home must sound like a nice possibility.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:38 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Twelve years ago I wondered how the kids living in McMansions were going to get jobs and live like they had been accustomed to in the future. 

 

The answer was simpler than I imagined....

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:44 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

ejmoosa

I wonder if we will see a trend back to the family home which is passed down from generation to generation.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Been doing that in France for awhile now.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:30 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

"Manufacturing jobs drop for 2 months in a row"

How can they drop? -- I wasn't aware there were any manufacturing jobs left ...

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:35 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-05/25/content_15391209.htm

Millions homeless in US: report

BEIJING - Millions of homeless people wander around streets in the United States, according to a Chinese report on the US human rights record released on Friday.

The Human Rights Record of the United States in 2011, released by the State Council Information Office of the People's Republic of China, said that about 2.3 million to 3.5 million Americans did not have a place that they called home to sleep in the night, and the number of homeless families grew by 20 percent between 2007 and 2010.

Over the past five years, the percentage of singles arriving at shelters after living with family or elsewhere in the community has jumped from 39 percent to 66 percent, the report said.

The report also cited related survey results as saying that there were an all-time record of more than 41,000 homeless people in New York City, including 17,000 homeless children.

On any given night in Santa Clara County, California State, 7,045 people were homeless according to a 2011 Santa Clara County Homeless Census and Survey, and advocates estimated that Chicago had up to 3,000 homeless youths in need of shelter on any given night, said the report.

The problems concerning human rights were the reflection of the US ideology and political system that ignored people's economic, social and culture rights, and the financial crisis was far from being the sole reason, the report said.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:38 | Link to Comment Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

Manufacturing guns and ammo for government agencies.

P.S. Jobs are soooo 20th century.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

In spite of all the talk, the last thing the government wants is full employment:  We'd have raging inflation were that the case.  For TPTB, things are just fine right now the way they are.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:30 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Less than expected ADP growth AND Challenger jobs cuts blows through the roof. Ah, another day in Euroamerica!

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/31/u-s-employment-remains-sluggish-adp-less-than-expected-challenger-challenging/

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:30 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-funemployment4-2009jun04,0,75816...

For the 'funemployed,' unemployment is welcome These jobless folks, usually singles in their 20s and 30s, find that life without work agrees with them. Instead of punching the clock, they're hitting the beach.

Michael Van Gorkom was laid off by Yahoo in late April. He didn't panic. He didn't rush off to a therapist. Instead, the 33-year-old Santa Monica resident discovered that being jobless "kind of settled nicely."

Week one: "I thought, 'OK . . . I need to send out resumes, send some e-mails, need to do networking."

Week two: "A little less."

Every week since: "I'm going to go to the beach and enjoy some margaritas."

What most people would call unemployment, Van Gorkom embraced as "funemployment."

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:39 | Link to Comment Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Promoting the MSMs attempt to stereotype the unemployed as lazy...pretty weak imo.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:31 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Do the Irish vote before or after bars open? There not here.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:38 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

q99x2

"Do the Irish vote before or after bars open?"

Can they vote after the bars open?

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment Wreckless
Wreckless's picture

Do they care?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:33 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

1.59 yield on the 10 year ... oh my, they are losing control of this quickly

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

I'm thinking the same, how fucked can this situation be that people are literally paying governments to hold there money Truly scary times.

.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Just wait 'til they all get around to currency controls.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:34 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

I can't believe that a qe rally is automatic from a bad jobs report. Can we at least wait for the fomc meeting and not frontrun this time? Jeez

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Of course not. We've been talking about QE3/New QE since April of last year. Don't ruin the fun. It's all QE all the time here, brother. It's like trying to talk about Da Bears with a die hard fan without them bringing up "Dikka".

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:35 | Link to Comment Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

TOMORROW PRINT WILL PRINT BADLY

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Yeah, but if the BLS decides to increase those who stopped looking for work, sadly the headline unemployment rate (U3) might not change or - gasp - even go down?!

Now as for U6 and the participation rate...well the MSM is forbidden to dwell on such things.

 

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

Tyler's,

At the beginning of the year you guys were keeping track of the ratio of all of the "missed expectations.". I remember at one point it was something like 18 out of 20 missed, and obviously the trend continues.

That could a pretty poignant tool if you placed a counter somewhere on the site, or even just started keeping track again. Im sure you all have your hands full, so don't take this the wrong way.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment WallStreetClass...
WallStreetClassAction.com's picture

actually, pretty good idea

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

If anyone knows how to code such a thing let me know. I'm more than willing to be the bookkeeper and keep track of the information.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:37 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Americans have been spending their prime working years....on the bench:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/job-recovery-is-scant-for-americans-in-prime-working-years/2012/05/29/gJQAnza9zU_story.html

Better than Romney's plan, where he's wants people to work for free!

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:40 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

http://www.mybudget360.com/saying-goodbye-middle-class-concept-retiremen...

Saying goodbye to the middle class concept of retirement – many workers plan to work up until they are 80 well beyond the typical life expectancy of Americans. How long will $25,000 last in retirement?

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2012/05/the-american-dream-for-the-av...

'The American Dream For the Average Man Doesn't Exist Any More'

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:31 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"When Germans or French are asked the same questions about whether it's within all of our power to get ahead, or whether our success is really determined by forces outside our control, most German and French respondents say, 'No, success is really beyond our control,' " Dimock says.

Yeah, that's gonna really be a long term motivation for workers.

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:43 | Link to Comment BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Don't worry, there will be a rumor today that Ben Bernake is remodelling the bathrooms of his summer home, which will save the economy, increase construction employment, and markets will soar.  When later in the day (an hour before close) the rumor will be found to be untrue as Ben can't use a bathroom (his head is plugging that particular hole), stocks will ignore this and hold their gains.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:44 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Is it really cheaper to buy stuff from China when you include the cost of unemployment and foodstamps and healthcare and ... and ...

I'm tired of my wealth being redistributed

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

The large corporates have outsourced the high paying manufacturing and services  jobs in their countries to the developing countries leaving their own local customers short of cash to buy the products they sell.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Yes, give Alinsky 4 more years! 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture
U.S. Jobless Claims Rose by 10,000 to 383,000 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbJNHcRW34U
Thu, 05/31/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Gimp
Gimp's picture

Daze and confuse the population Friday  - Bring on the BLS

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 04:53 | Link to Comment rajonmestra
rajonmestra's picture

Now that would really hurt. It's a bit disappointing to see that such jobs goes down when people with positions in the government should be helping employees who work in such field. HP photosmart d110 ink

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!