Advance Look At Today's Ridiculously Busy Day
Those wishing to blow $2 billion on rogue, or just stupid, trades, will have ample opportunity during today's event extravaganza which sees the CPI, the current account, the Empire State Index, Initial Claims, Industrial Production, the Philly Fed, a POMO for good measure, and tops it all off with a Bernanke speech. Also, the relentless lie-flow from Europe will be a constant and lurking wildcard at every step of the way.
8:30: Consumer Price Index (August): Watching rent inflation. Goldman forecasts that the core CPI rose by 0.17% (month-over-month) in August. The firm looks for another sizable increase in rent-related prices, partly offset by lower prices for cars and trucks. Rent inflation accelerated sharply in July, so these components will be particularly important to watch in today’s report. A 0.2% gain is forecast in the headline CPI, following a 0.5% increase in the previous month.
CPI: GS: +0.22%; Consensus: +0.2%; Last +0.5%.
Core CPI: GS: +0.17%; Consensus: +0.2%; last +0.2%. MAP: 4
8:30: Current account balance (Q2): Slightly bigger deficit. The current account balance likely widened moderately during the second quarter. Net export figures from the GDP accounts showed a deterioration of about $8bn (not annualized).
Consensus: -$122bn; Last -$119bn.
8:30: Empire State Index (September): Small rebound? Given high uncertainty about the near-term outlook for the economy, this early read on September manufacturing activity could prove important. Last month the Empire State index fell, but not nearly as much as the Philadelphia Fed index. For September the consensus expects a small rebound.
Consensus: -4.0; Last –7.7.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of September 10): Steady? Jobless claims have moved up a little in recent weeks—the four-week moving average stands at 415k, up from 404k in mid-August—but still do not look as concerning as some other cyclical indicators.
Consensus: 411,000; Last: 414,000.
8:45: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will give brief opening remarks to the Fed’s systemic risk conference (no Q&A).
9:15: Industrial production (August): Smaller boost from autos. In July, a sharp rebound in vehicle production drove a 0.9% (month-over-month) gain in US industrial production. Goldman sees some boost from strengthening vehicle production in August, but a smaller sequential improvement than July. Weak manufacturing employment and the downturn in many business surveys also suggests a deceleration.
Production: GS: +0.2%; Consensus: Flat; Last +0.9%.
Capacity utilization: GS: 77.6%; Consensus: 77.5%; Last 77.5%.
10:00: Philadelphia Fed index (September): Sharp recovery? The current level of the Philadelphia Fed’s business conditions index has historically been associated with recession. Given that other indicators—including most other manufacturing surveys—have not deteriorated as much, Goldman believes the Philadelphia Fed measure is likely to rebound significantly.
GS: -5.0; Consensus: -15.0; Last -30.7.
11:00: $2.75-$3.00 billion POMO closes, with Fed buying ~5 year bonds maturing 09/30/2015-02/28/2017
13:45: Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo speaks on Fed’s systemic risk conference (no Q&A).
Via Goldman and Zero Hedge