After Six Standard Deviation Jump, USDJPY Intervention Loses 38.2% In 30 Minutes

Tyler Durden's picture

Thanks to Mr. Azumi's clearly unique perspective on Japanese currency fundamentals, USDJPY managed to peak with a six standard deviation move, bested only by 10/28/08 (what a weekend) before all the way back to 1995. However, as always with his unilateral decisions, the market seems to know best and we have already given back over 38% of the drop. Interestingly, broad risk markets have not enjoyed this move at all as correlations are not helping the Japanese cause and ES continues to leak lower.

USDJPY has given back 120pips from its highs having retraced almost perfectly (for Fibonacci fans) 38.2%.

The 6 standard deviation jump is second only to the spike on 10/28/08 (what a great 3 year anniversary?). Is it something about Halloween that gets the BoJ going? Prior to this, the previous largest move was in 1995!!

With Regling's comments on Japan's ongoing commitment to buying EFSF bonds, perhaps Azumi was just making some room?

Furthermore, for some perspective on what this kind of move in EURJPY (or JPY crosses in general) 'should' have meant for ES (based on empirical correlations/deltas), ES is testing Friday's lows around 1274 while the 'model' says it should be trading around 1299!!! Seems like risk-off is overwhelming Azumi's efforts.

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Thomas's picture

Bad Kharma. It's not nice to mess with Mother Nature.

Mike2756's picture

yeah, bounce did not last long.

bob_dabolina's picture

To shamelessly steal from Tyler. 

It bounced inversely

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Remember though, price movements are NOT a normal distribution.

BIG prices moves are much more common than the normal distribution would imply.

Both Mandelbroit and Taleb have written about this.

But, I certainly do not take away the news that these are huge moves in the FX markets.  Interesting times we live in.

rumblefish's picture

bullish for the dow!

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I don't think so.  This should help see a retrace of EUR/USD to about $1.35, which should move the Dow back to 11,500

Yen Cross's picture

Exactly what I thought! I T/P , and will just moniter the screens. Month end flows in gbp expected as well.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

month-end sigma stacking, Y/C!

the printers are pounding and the pounders are printing

Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture going nowhere near this mad fucking market

HellBoy6's picture

The next two days I gotta think this market is better sold than bought.  That being said I wouldn't do it with gusto but still think there is some money to be made being moderately short.


Happy hunting!

MFL8240's picture

Its not the market, its your goverment that is mad.

chump666's picture

hahahahaha I love it.

Aug 4 Japan intervened and the guts of the market fell out.  Same flow.  Something is up.

technovelist's picture

And gold has dropped $27 in less than an hour.

Albertarocks's picture

Haha.  I sold the majority of my physical silver this afternoon.  Expect to be able to buy it back considerably cheaper as the dollar should finally rocket properly from here.  Know what I paid for that silver? $7.40. 

Albertarocks's picture

LOL... I didn't even like that comment.  Gave it minus myself.  But I'm still laughin'.

gwar5's picture

They try and they try.....  three years ago the YENUSD was about 115, we've almost a 1/3 in a short time.



Reese Bobby's picture

I take it back...WTF!

Mike2756's picture

wtf is right! blowing through 1.26.

bob_dabolina's picture


Look at usd/jpy right now....siiiiiiicccckkkk

I can't wait to see who the next Kweku Abdoli is

X.inf.capt's picture

hey boss,

did you see tres. yields

people are running for cover, big time....

3 month 0.00%

dow futures down -58

gold down to1713

yep, welcome to black monday, on halloween day....

TRICK OR TREAT....................BITCHEZ!


at least you have to admire the dark humor of TPTB

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hey Cap'n

Just a few hours ago (6:00 PM ET) things looked like they were going to be pretty calm.  Maybe not so much now.  So gold is down to $1713 (or whatever now, I'll go check in a bit), big deal.

Trick or treat, bitchez!  <--- Nice one!

X.inf.capt's picture

thanks, bearing,

 +1 back at cha

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Gold now down $35.00!

Man o man, The Bitchez That Be (TBTBtm) are smoking our asses tonight!

X.inf.capt's picture

no fear, brother,

no fear

i hope they drop PM's big time...

yeah, i'd love a nother BTFD opportunity....

cut that bitch in half, and i'll back that truck up so fast.....

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The PTB love October, because it symbolizes death (to them).

Lone Deranger's picture

EUR/JPY up almost 500 pips. 

Lone Deranger's picture

EUR/JPY up almost 500 pips. 

max2205's picture

Not so fast. Going for 8 STD

smoked's picture

yen akita bear market

Conax's picture

Whoa! Gold under attack, 1,924,000 contracts with a drop in price of $29 starting about 9:40 PM eastern.

Silver down to $34.59 and trying to ease back up a tad. A bloody Monday folks. Whenever gold is assaulted, you know something bad happens to equities soon after.. Lookout below.

Conax's picture

"Anything you say, chief!"  ~ Moriarty

X.inf.capt's picture

no positive waves today...

all i see is a tidal wave coming tomorrow...

SURFS UP......................BITCHEZ

and remember....



Stuck on Zero's picture

First Europe.  Now Japan.  Your move Mr. Bernanke.  I assume you won't be outdone in this race to the bottom.  It's a matter of national pride.

DonutBoy's picture

Yep.  For Japan - a USDJPY floor, just as the Swiss have a EURCHF floor.  I hope I get to read Jim Rickards new book before the currency war goes thermonuclear.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bernanke was well aware of the Yentervention this weekend.  Remember, Europe needs help; this move by the Japanese, and the coming move by the Fed, were telegraphed by Europe. 

Bernanke will love to see stocks go lower tomorrow (the President's Working Group probably sold on Friday) so that his Fed meeting can announce an MBS buyback later this week (and the PPT can buy back in).

BTFD, bitchez!  LOL!!

Reese Bobby's picture

I guess every once in a while the Japanese have to remind everyone what crazy is all about.  It's like a Global jail yard thing...

RobotTrader's picture

Yep, more proof that a flood of paper can easily spook the gold longs, who are always overmargined F12-punching action junkies.

tickhound's picture

And so consistently... this 11 year spookish manipulation to the upside