Ahead Of The Curve: Goldman Cuts Dexia From Buy To Neutral On Imminent Restructuring And Winddown

Tyler Durden's picture

From Goldman, October 5, 2011: "Our thesis was that, given time, Dexia’s legacy assets should run down, its unrealized loss pull to par (independently of credit spreads), in turn boosting equity growth and reducing funding requirements. The opposite took place: a deepening sovereign crisis increased the riskiness of these assets, resulting in a wider AFS negative reserve and forcing higher losses on disposal as well as higher than anticipated funding requirements. The headroom to progressively delever is therefore taken away and forced immediate action, as announced by the bank on October 4." From Zero Hedge, May 25, 2011: "Is Belgium's Dexia About To Be The First Greek Casualty?"

Verdict? DEXB.BB stock price since May:

Full report:


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williambanzai7's picture

How could this have been on buy and how could it now be neutral?

covert's picture

there is excessive pessimism in the market



SheepDog-One's picture

No Covert I'd say the market is still full of Hindu-calm 401K and pension bulls who are in full denial of the reality of what is about to happen to them, whacky on the head with a mallet and carved up into steaks. 

Market Efficiency Romantic's picture

Goldman, the great LIEgetimizer. Its their business model:

1) Create possible market friction (fake Greek books with SWAPs)

2) Listen to positioning of client companies in the surrounding market

3) Synthesize three trading strategies from it, one for Goldman, one for prime clients and one for the masses.

4) Watch the strategy unfold.

kaiserhoff's picture

Just a theory, but I think it's because Goldman always sucks the hind tit;)

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Simple, Goldman has shares to sell you, hence it is a buy.

RemiG2010's picture

Wouldn't have said it better! +1

Paralympic Equity's picture

It is on Neutral now maybe because there is no BID?

Hmm...'s picture

How could this have been on buy

Careful deliberation, I'm sure.

how could it now be neutral?

Remember, there is no such thing as "sell".

"neutral" means sell.
Buy either means buy, or it means that the analyst was paid a lot to say buy when they meant neutral. 

vast-dom's picture

In same manner i may advise you that that steamy hot nutty mass of diarrhea is a buy. All you have to do is get past the stench and yes allow me to now re-revise that to a STRONG BUY.

Greyhat's picture

"How could this have been on buy and how could it now be neutral?"

Dexia holds 59 Billion € in US Papers and only 4 Bn. € in Greec bonds, so the Bernank will pay, who else?

Is that neutral enough? ;)

Zero Debt's picture

Because GS has stopped doing the opposite?

buzzsaw99's picture

always buy on sell recommendations and sell on buy recommendations.

Village Smithy's picture

You don't have to be ahead of the curve when you own the curve.

Mitch Comestein's picture

Kind of reminds me of 2001 when the analysts downgraded groups of dot-coms when they had already drop over 98%.

kaiserhoff's picture

Dick Bove says all banks are just peachy-keen.

SheepDog-One's picture

And the classic Enron....finally downgraded from 'strong buy' after it went below $2 and declared bankruptcy.

DormRoom's picture

Dexia: patient 0.


Soon the contagion will swamp the resources available, and spread across global links.  the new normal is a misnomer.  The old normal was boom-bust.  We return there--to the patterns of economic history.

Alienated Serf's picture


Josh Randall's picture

The Squid's new motto should be, Govt. Sachs: "We're Bullish on insolvency..."

Caviar Emptor's picture

Tyler: the same mechanism you described for Dexia should be operational in other places wherever toxic cesspools are found. The sovereign issues aren't going away, they're getting worse with each turn of the screw as debt and credibility issues take their toll, compounded now by decreasing tax revenues and social/political crises. 

Denmark just elected a socialist prime minister. 

snowball777's picture

But in bizarro world a socialist P Min is bullish for bailing, no? (consider the greens etc in Germany)

Dick Darlington's picture
10-05 9:18: Belgian finance minister says debt guarantees will not hurt Belgium... Baghdad Bob reincarnation saying all our waffels are good.
Alienated Serf's picture


SheepDog-One's picture

Tanks? What tanks in the streets? Clearly you can see no tanks in the street behind me....oh wait.

Caviar Emptor's picture

Larry Kudlow:

If  and  ringfence and guarantee bank liabilities as they did in 2008, then stocks may be headed for big relief rally

hehe. But who will ringfence the bankrupt sovereigns????

Now playing at a circus near you: increasing liabilities, declining tax revenues, rising unemployment and social unrest. Should be an excellent spectacle! 

snowball777's picture

All in favor of sending Kudlow to Fukushima for a live report say aye.

buzzsaw99's picture

radiation doesn't harm fossils.

marcusfenix's picture

sadly, anywhere in Japan would suffice...

Kina's picture

Gotta love a circle jerk of bankrupts guaranteeing each other. LoL


Notice how the only important thing is stocks. The globe is bankrupt but nobody has quite told the stock market yet, they still want to walk on water.

riley martini's picture

Kudlow is all for socialism and wellfare when it primarly benefits his fascist masters . Free money is only good for those fascist insiders who make bad bets .

monopoly's picture

"Ahead of the curve", ya gotta luv it. :))))

topcallingtroll's picture

We always knew that bank lending and consumer spending were pro cyclical.

I never realized that rating agencies and forecasters were pro cyclical too.

swissaustrian's picture

Go long when they downgrade Dexia to sell...

Waterfallsparkles's picture

Goldman seems to single handily trying to destroy the Stock Market.

Yesterday, downgrading Copper, downgrading the economy.

Do not tell me that Moodies Downgrading Italy wasn't instigated by Goldman.

And now Dexia?

Way to go Goldman.

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

God, it would be awesome to have a job where you never have to be right.

Kina's picture

If you are a bankster you get paid millions for being perpetually wrong.

lemarche's picture

From Buy to Neutral???!!! What a f* joke !!! Yeah they had a buy recommendation on BNP as well with a target at 70eur during the summer... somehow I was skeptic... (lol) and shorted the stock but many poor long folks found relief in GS research and lost quite a lot of money waiting for the "rebound"... (while GS prop desk was probably heavily shorting the stock). A f* joke...

theprofromdover's picture

You mean the hyenas will rob the carcasss of whatever goodness it has, for rip-off prices?

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