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Aircraft Carrier CVN-77 Parks Next Door To Syria Just As US Urges Americans To Leave Country "Immediately"
Yesterday we reported that the Arab League (with European and US support) are preparing to institute a no fly zone over Syria. Today, we get an escalation which confirms we may be on the edge. Just out from CBS: "The U.S. Embassy in Damascus urged its citizens in Syria to depart "immediately," and Turkey's foreign ministry urged Turkish pilgrims to opt for flights to return home from Saudi Arabia to avoid traveling through Syria." But probably the most damning evidence that the "western world" is about to do the unthinkable and invade Syria, and in the process force Iran to retaliate, is the weekly naval update from Stratfor, which always has some very interesting if always controversial view on geopolitics, where we find that for the first time in many months, CVN 77 George H.W. Bush has left its traditional theater of operations just off the Straits of Hormuz, a critical choke point, where it traditionally accompanies the Stennis, and has parked... right next to Syria.
From Stratfor:
And from CBS:
"The U.S. Embassy continues to urge U.S. citizens in Syria to depart immediately while commercial transportation is available," said a statement issued to the American community in Syria Wednesday and posted on the Embassy's website. "The number of airlines serving Syria has decreased significantly since the summer, while many of those airlines remaining have reduced their number of flights."
The warning followed an announcement in Washington this week that Ambassador Robert Ford would not return to Syria this month as planned, indicating concerns over his safety.
The Obama administration quietly pulled Ford out of Syria last month, citing credible personal threats against him.
The Turkish foreign ministry on Wednesday urged Turkish pilgrims to opt for flights to return home from Saudi Arabia and avoid traveling through Syria for security reasons.
The warning came two days after Syrian soldiers opened fire on at least two buses carrying Turkish citizens, witnesses and officials said, apparent retaliation for Turkey's criticism of Assad. The Turks were returning from Saudi Arabia after performing the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia.
Uh...Got Brent?
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And, even if they don't have shit to free we'll give it to 'em!
For the sake of peace in your family you should not mention any Zerohedge topic during the holidays. Watch the game and enjoy the pumpkin pie. Happy Thanksgiving.
For the sake of my family, I gave up mentioning such topics a long time ago.
They don't want to hear about it whatsoever. Just like my neighbors, co-workers, etc.
They are all in severe denial.
I gave up talking frankly about the economy and the war machine a year ago. Most Americans supported the Libyan 'humanitarian intervention,' and they continue to believe in American exceptionalism. Bad things, like economic collapse, don't happen here. Even many that acknowledge the U.S. is declining still prefer hopium over bleak reality.
You are in the exact same boat I am.
In fact, people often compare me to my favorite Cartoon Lord & Master: Foamy the Squirrel.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQ9nmqErGoU
Best option to get re-elected Mr. Obama needs more wars.
http://debka.com/article/21509/
russian ships deployed off coast of syria are bristling with electronic eavedropping and countermeasures capabilities ..........obviously they intend on disrupting command and control of any possible nato attack on syria..........
plus i think they are guarding their only outlet to the mediterrainean throuth the straits over by turkey. i promsie you. the russians will not allow any strategic closure of this area by anyone including turkey..........
so it looks like they were not going to intervene in libya but looks like this is the end of the line for them now....
your move mr president................
The horrible psychology...
fascination and curiousity vs the realization that people will die.
Will they really do it? What weapons will be involved? Who will be involved? What tactics and strategies will be employed? How effective are each sides forces? = Fascination + curiousity
Will this spread out of control? Will more lives be wasted? = Realization
i believe they will do it. this is not a drill.
My buddy keeps referencing the weapons of Syria and how they would never get attacked because of them. I keep referencing the info here.
We'll see if SHTF... lesson would probably be that it isn't always about the numbers and that it wouldn't be done just because they have possibly advanced weaponry...
Not sure if anybody is feeling or noticing this.
Information on ZH is great+insightful, but noticing we're starting to cite the same online sources and such. ie Debka (Which I recently started to look at it after watching ZH posts and the comments).
German News: Spiegel
English News: Sky News
etc
But if it's right... then I guess not as much of an issue... just in spirit of things keep an open eye.
On flip side people also reference the MSMs...
I'm confused. lol.
Just keep reading the ZH. F5!
look into who is behind each "news source" - and how consistent the overall message is from each, for an agenda - weighing up the stories with the story-tellers, not favouring any, but certainly dismissing some as echo chamber rhetoric, spun for effect(s).
and yes, read ZH, but also some trusted commentary folk here - try to keep your mind relatively open to the meta-narrative and where it appears to be headed. . . minds closed down, taking "sides," tend to miss important "leaks, mishaps, out-of-box actions."
ultimately, all we can do is prepare personally, locally, and be aware, globally.
My antique world globe is becoming more accurate. It doesn't have Syria on it.
What about the civilians at UC Davis? ..Oakland?...Rancotti Park, NYC?
Maybe some day whichever of the Tyler's writes the geopolitical stuff for ZH might get a big call right but this is going to go along with the other strange calls such as there'll be 30,000 marines landing in Libya any day.. er.. or not, the Iran naval expedition into the straits was going to kick things off and we'd have all our ME war.. er.. guess not, etc. The West is not going to invade Syria. The US and others will milk this situation short of that as it keeps Iran looking there and reduces their meddling in areas where America actually operates such as Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. Hence the moving of some serious assets into the region. The political price to be paid for invading Syria is just not worth it for the West however (sorry Syrian civilians). End game here - peace deal brokered, Assad retains power, some mild reforms agreed.
My dick is hard.
Is it all this war talk or my newly acquired stack of little gold ingots.
TPTB learned some new tricks with Lybia. #1 The long stick with covered eyes play. Assad should start packing.
The Sunni (Arab) and Shia (Persians, ie Iranians) sects have been fighting each other for control of Islam since Mohammad died in the 7th century.
Syria is 80% Sunni, and Bashir Assad and his ruling class are of the minority Shia. They are going to be gone soon. This is what is going on in MENA. Western and secular puppets are getting swept out and the reassertion of Sunni vs Shia is taking place in the ME to revert back to the old Ottoman Empire vs the Persian Crescent rivalries which predate the artificial nation state constructs imposed by the Western powers just after 1918 and WWI. The Muslim Brotherhood is the worldwide Sunni movement organized in 1929 to bring this about. The West has allied with the MB Sunnis, among other things they have the most oil, against Iran and the Persians.
The Ottoman (Turk) Empire ruled for 450 years +. Turkey ain't just for Thanksgiving anymore. Israel is in the middle, but is useful to the Sunnis right now to help vanquish Iran. Sunnis fear a nuclear Iran as much as anyone. First things first, but eventually Israel will be the next.
The borders were drawn by the west for oil. In the end, whomever wins will sell it to us.
The Brits and French primarily carved up the ME post WWI and plans for a Jewish state began in earnest with Balfour in 1917 after having been first conceived the (first?) World Jewish Congress in 1895 Basel, Switzerland.
A Jewish homeland somewhere in Russia was an alternative in 1895. But it was eventually decided that a Rothschild Blvd should eventually be built in what was to become the Israeli capital in Tel Aviv. Pity Israel, the only place in the ME with no oil! It would be very interesting to know historically exactly the who/how/why the new borders were drawn, mixing Sunnis and Shia together in their current configurations. At any rate, the ME has been nothing but a festering backlash ever since.
The USA inherited the puppet strings after WWII, like Vietnam when the French vacated. The Sunnis have most of the oil and outnumber the Shia. The outcome is inevitable. They are the obvious choice to ally with for future access to cheap(er) oil because we are too weak to fight this historic seachange. They have the longterm oil leverage and we are riding the Tiger. Perhaps TPTB are hoping for continued petrodollar oil for services rendered. Worm has turned, they are playing us. How does one get any guarantee in the ME?
Payback's a bitch.
The House of Saud in the spring?
They may hope to survive as ceremonial monarchs like the Brit royals.
World War III is the place to be.
As a former marine, I can say for sure that something is going on. It may just posturing. Watch LHD.
That's marine landing ship. Each carries about 500 - 1000 marines. Nothing will happen until these ships get to near the spot.
Hm, interesting - any idea where LHDs were during Libya campaign? If I recall it was mostly US air support.
Would LHDs move in if foreign troopers were to be used?
Somehow I don't think we will be hitting the beach on this one.
Obam has no 2nd term for sure, so he hurry thing up.
Early this year when egyptians rising, where is next storm? tyler asked, my answer then: syria, door step to Iran.
Ooo Goodie, white meat war.
"If ever time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in Government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin."
Samuel Adams
His beer did not hurt, but it did not solve the problem either. [/sarcasm]
Don't sand and a nuke make glass?
When are we going to learn that our involvement in these middle eastern regional disputes is a complete waste of time, lives and money? We can't fix them, and they hate us infidels anyway. I would love to know how much we have spent over there in half a dozen theaters of operation since 9/11. I bet the money would have been better spent right here. That couple of trillion might have significantly upgraded our mass transit situation, or maybe put us a lot closer to a real energy solution that would work. What an effing waste, yet here we are doing the same shit again and again.
*cough* oil *cough*
It's about time. I was wondering where Barry was going to move the 150,000 troops out of Iraq....I knew the tiny Australian military base he opened is not big enough ....Syria is perfect!
Nomura is wrong...$220 oil is wrong.....more like $350 oil!
More paranoia? More the end is near stuff? More,...WTF gona pop me beer.
Hey, this Libya excursion worked so very well, I mean what was to take a week stretched out to months. Hell yeah, let's do it again, what possibly could go wrong?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0xsRgivU4M
It's time for 'Let's Make a Deal,' or 'Let's Buy Security Council Votes.' The U.S. is the champ at this game. How about the U.S. butts out of the South China Sea disputes and agrees not to place missiles in Europe in exchange for China and Russia agreeing to abstain from a colossal 'humanitarian' adventure in Syria and Iran? Just what will China and Russia's ultimate price be to look away? Obambi will give away the store to get reelected.
Dearest Tyler & Marla. How do we know that CVN77 is truly "parked right next to Syria" - are we speculating a good bit here or is there something in the PAID portion of Stratfor that would suggest something more specific than "Somewhere in the Mediterranean"?
The majority of these articles are just bait. Go out on a limb and have fun with them.
Hard to believe so many free-thinkers in one place would be so quick to predict war tomorrow.
It could happen, sure, but considering STRATFOR told us the war against Iran was starting in '04, '05, '06, '07, '09, and '10, I think the report that war with Syria is starting in '11 is about as credible.
Russian Scientist claimed by IAEA as working on Iran Nuke NOT!
We did this in Iraq, folks.
http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=105776
The 'evidence' on this guy came supposedy from..... Israel. Is this going to be a repeat of that movie The Green Zone? Ya know, where the CWO went all over Iraq only to find no WMDs?
And how come if ya look at the zionists factually, it makes you anti-semitic? How about I don't want my country's foreign policy decided in Tel Aviv? These Ubiquitous Imperialists are gonna pull the Big One: The Neocons are gonna tell Barky he can guarantee his re-election IF we invade Iran. Hope I'm wrong, but if I'm right, it's WW3. At some point, Russia will not back down, nor will China. When the chessboard gets this heavy, 1 wrong move cascades into chaos.
You know nothing about the Zionist Lobby!
http://www.councilforthenationalinterest.org/israellobby
This is the most dangerious game yet from NATO/US. If they think they can enforce a "No Fly zone" in Syria and have their proxys take down the regime in Damascus. I'm thinking Russia will have a say in this one. Russia is NOT going to let NATO and the US take hold on this one and cause a cascade of war throughout the Mideast and the world. They already said this in ten ways to sunday. I TRULY think this could spriral out of control at warp speed. Nato/US planes will be lost. Ships will be lost and whole citys could be lost with this gamble. I never felt that way with Iraq,Afganistan or Libya. Even though i was totaly opposed to Libya.
I just wish they would bring our troops home, and round up all the bankster scum, and the politicians and elite. And let them face the rath of the people. My whole 44 years of life. I never thought it would come down to this madness. I'm sure many here are students of history and geopolitical politics. This is could be 9 on the ricter scale in terms of bad outcomes for all involved. With a 10 being total doom.
Gas up your tanks bitchez!
Weird shit:
The current king of Saudi Arabia is 87 years old and the crown prince is 78. No, the latter isn´t the son of the former but his brother. Their brother, the prior crown prince croaked a month ago at 81.
The first king of Saudi Arabia 1932-53 (he named the country after himself) was Ibn Saud and all kings following him have been his sons. Since he had 22 wives over his time (4-5 simultaneously) and fathered 45 legitimate sons (the daughters aren´t counted) the succession has mostly been between half-brothers.
Since American administrations absolutely love democracy and liberty as we all know, they´ve been absolutely crazy about the Saudi Arabian medieval royal totalitarianism.
The 10 mile square called the District of Criminals is a foreign enemy state. All traitors should be shot on site.
Jew billboard called "too Muslim" and taken down in NYC!
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/controversial-anti-semitic-vodka-bi...
"""Now how will sophisticated dogs learn about America's hottest cheap-as-the-Jews spirit?"""
--- gawker.com
bottoms up!
I might point out that Tyler, in all his (their) cynicism, noted that the "western world" would never bother assisting ordinary Syrians fighting for the sort of general freedoms that Tyler obviously disdains, owing to its status as a 'no oil zone'.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/videos-violent-syrian-revolution-will-n... (Just LOVE the crusader references, that kind of unintentional self-parody is delicious).
It is a joy to watch as Tyler desparately scrambles to find some other neo-imperialist/crusader rhetoric to justifiy this earlier cynicism... Oh, well maybe it's not for OIL, but it's still meddling foreigners sticking their noses into a perfectly legitimate domestic dispute between equally matched forces in a soverign state! As long as it's dictators butchering 'their own' people, it's fine, isn't it? It's when evil oil-hungry westerners get involved that the moral highhorses are lept upon.
Pathetic really. I don't know why Tyler insists on taking such sophomoric positions on geopolitics. Stick to markets.
Syria is all about water for Israel:
Google "Israel Syria Water". You'll find it.
"Besides being long considered of key strategic importance militarily, the Golan is Israel’s key source of water. Israel’s northern water sources lie largely in the Golan, providing Israel with one-third of its water supply. Before 1967, Syria interfered with this crucial water supply."
http://www.adl.org/backgrounders/Isreal_Syria99_12_13.asp
Sigh.
Twat.
Turkey is the #1 source of water for the ME.
Look up some dams and so on. Get a brain.
http://www.mideastweb.org/water.htm
I hope it does not anger you.
LOL.
Sigh.
Twat.
Turkey is the #1 source of water for the ME. Why do you think a piddling shitty Muslim country gets a chance at the EU? OH..... Yep. Water.
Look up some dams and so on. Get a brain. Here's also some tips: Google "Israel waste water unfiltered downstream into Syria". There's even a BBC documentary on the way Israel takes water resources from the Palestinians, and flushes dirty water downstream.
By the way - you're an ignorant cunt.
(And yes, you'll notice a % of repetition - precisely because the poster above has no idea about water politics in the ME)
p.s.
Your graphic kinda implies that water mysteriously "eminates" from Israel. Hmm. Desert region. Dead Sea. Nope. Nope. Nope. Try getting some education in hydrology [subset of geology] and working out WHERE THE FUCK THE JORDAN COMES FROM.
Grrr. God? Nope. Science.
You must be mad about the billboard too.
Nope.
I'm just here to show the shills from the genuine posters.
Hint: Look at my name. I'm guessing you're such a newbie you don't even get the reference. Meh.
Oh, and p.s. Your floatation that cost a whole load of people a shit load of cash, while you pretend that "smart business" isn't actually "raping the fuck out of these brownies for their resources"?
Fuck you: Names: Taken. Addresses: Known. Sentences: Death.
Enjoy that brief floatation. We're coming :)
May I suggest a variation for you to more aptly capture your essence?
"Use of Stupid".
There was I, a Jew, expecting a well researched and linked enhanced post outlining the geopolitical realm of the ME with numerous sources to how water was the #1 cause of tension in the region.
Because, you know - I'm looking at them. I'm reading the UN reports, the CIA danger zone stuff and the Arab league internal documents about it.
Instead, I got a small squidge of a post. A pathetic "Baaaaa" of a post.
Son. WE ARE DISAPPOINT.
p.s. OOOOH, clever. You removed the Jew jibe before I could post. Worry not, Tyler can still see it ;)
Oh, and yes. Expect instantaneous posting of "." to stop you pulling bullshit troll tactics from now on, you simple minded troll. I'm hoping you don't paid for this shit, because you're really bad at it.
Go spew you israel type threats elsewhere. They fall on callus ears here.
Hey, shitwad.
You do realise that every time you wipe out the BT network hub that our secondary silent placements can see you, right?
You're not just nuking a hub to a Win 7 virgin box (feel free to scan - nothing naughty here!) but you're allowing us to see where you are, right?
Mossad twat. Stop junking this line, it is boring to have to go all satellite on your ass. Oh, and your propaganda sucks dicks.
Darkgroup Plc.
Oh you're good and I'm gettin sooo skared.
Hussam Fawzi Jabar is watching you.
Silly boy, trix are for kids.
And yes, we note the lack of denial. Well done for doing a basic attack - pity it allowed us more knowledge about your source than this Win 7 box. (OOOH! Did you find anything on it? Trolololol. Doesn't even have porn on it!)
#antisec will be informed, and will learn. Thanks for all the fish.
p.s. SeaBloop says hi, you ignorant government agent. Why so open a box? Honeytrap, bitch,
I am Antisec moron. NSA special ops, assignment; Zerohedge, mission; bring the funny, gloom and doom style.
That would be funny if any of your posts lived up to that. They don't, so fuck off you reactionary paid troll. None of what you've posted has been anything but shill shit.
So, sadly, no :( :( And the people I've put you towards are all about the LulZ. Especially when it comes to an open win 7 box, a naive young woman who is rather sexy and someone who is claiming to be #antisec.... and you tried to rape her. Shit dawg, this is all wrong).
Now I have to stop 9000 hackers ruining your life tomorrow.
Sadly, I am tired, so I disappoint. Fuck you, paid shill.
> Cat. NAi. NAi. ??
My mom said "lights out" and she means it. The basement gets cold this time of year so I gotta go to bed now.
Do read the article and keep in mind that Turkey will be the source of water once Stage 3 is implemented.
Didn't the joos just threaten Turkey when it assisted the flotilla to Palestine? Doesn't Turkey want Palestinian Statehood?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaY0ANHQ5ZY
You're a smart guy alright. Nighty-night. Use of Stooopid.
I thought the Litani river in Lebanon was of considerable interest to Israel as water is concerned.
I've never seen Tyler. And you apparantly have seen him despErately scramble. I too, would consider that a joy to watch...were I gay.
Fuck me.
7 pages, and nary a decent analysis.
Hint: Russia has already been primed to over-see the exchange of power in Syria, because the Arab states that desire it [not to mention the poor people getting slaughtered and the CIA teams in there who both haven't been able to flip the deck - anyone remember the Marsh Arabs in Iraq? FUCK THE CIA, TOSSERS. OH, and we all remember the RGP attacks within.... ******] cannot be seen to be offering military force [Saud in Bahrain caused almost an aneurism in the CIA etc, and is total gold for revolutionaries there]. OH HAI - HOW IS EGYPT? Guessing your choice of candidate isn't being accepted, MULTI-KILL.
Bottom line: Russia is being "allowed" (LOL) to oversee this one, precisely because the US / NATO doesn't want to be seen to be "expansionist". If you really think that Moscow isn't 99% on board with the way it works, I feel sorry for you.
Assad will probably take the Idi Amni way out, his wife likes Western living too much.
Oh, and btw: fuck you, peeps who spent $800 mil a year on Egypt. We're Hungry Now.
HEY ! Obama gets his " Mission Accomplished " aircraft deck souvenir President G.I. Joe picture too, mothuhfuckahs ! Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Republican bitchez ! Netanyahoo is gonna have a cow when he sees that - Jews were never good at P.R. YOWSAH ! USA ! USA ! USA !
And we Germans got hammered because we started 2 wars.
That one would make it, let's see:
1.Korea
2.Vietnam
3.Grenada
4.Iraq
5.Afghanistan
6.Syria
7.Iran
8.Venezuela
9. ...
This is happening with the consent of the Committee of 300 under whose control the U.S. effectively is.
Your Congress is just a clown show as distraction for the masses.
Your IMPOTUS gets his orders out of London.
Don't forget the 3rd war that's going to start when the EU debt dominoes collapse around to Germany's doorstep. A small cabal of foreign interests and elite finaciers demanding that Germany undergo "austerity" and humiliating loss of power and soveriegnty hasn't worked out to well historically. This time Russia will probably right on board with you.
Hardly matters where the carrier battle groups are. Submarines are the real workhorses of the US Navy fleet. There's a reason they're not on the bloody map, ya dig? Carriers, destroyers, cruisers; their main mission is to "project power ashore". It's in the blue-jacket manual. Submarines first priority is the destruction of enemy ships, submarines, and land targets. Also in the blue-jacket manual. Los Angeles class and Virginia class fast attacks hold AT LEAST thirty TLAMs each. Those are tomahawk cruise missiles. They can fire them from periscope depth without being noticed. I'm not sure what my point was, except that submarines fucking rule. Contact your local recruiting center "bitchez".
Operation "Cover Ben's ass for the printing we want to do" is about to commence.
Oh screw it! What counts is who is glowing in the dark at the end of the day. You wienies are overthinking this.
Anyone who imagines that nuclear war is the next play is wrong. Neutron bombs were built [and were shoved some serious cash under Bush] to get rid of the organics and keep the infrastructure.
Way back in the 80's. Heck, my first Philosophy teacher worked first strike policy for the USA and admitted that his input was out of date in the 90's. Bush II made sure that they were still being built.
New model?
Type IV bioweapons. Genetically typed plague.
Nukes are for the phallocentric wankers who are looking for budget --- real men are looking at genocide.
The Sunburn - Iran's Awesome
The Weapon That CouldNuclear Anti-Ship Missile
Defeat The US In The Gulf
http://www.rense.com/general59/theSunburniransawesome.htm
Basically what Aljazeera is saying:
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2011/11/20111117102116501736.html
So once again it's wishful thinking. Time marches on, the US gets weaker and the ME become more hostile to the Lizard people.
Sucks to be them, or associated with them.
And China, the country who so many US companies are desperately begging to get into is looking.... Alpha-like.
Look at the end of the article:
Fucking USA JEWS can still afford to kill other people?
well, war is highly profitable...
Unconventional times call for unconventional tactics, so how about we swap rulers for say the remainder of Obama’s term. Assad might have a better chance of getting something through congress within that time period and it’s a cinch Obama would have Syria so fucked up they would be begging for their old guy to return!
The Future’s So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades
America, fuck yeah!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWS-FoXbjVI
So 'till may ever closer "dying days" i will believe the proper response to 9/11 was to refuse to allow Saudi Arabia to export its oil to anyone anymore. Besides being immensely popular it would have solved a lot of problems short of an actual "ground pounder" war without end "for all the wannabees." I was listening to Ron Paul during the National Security debates and i've come to the conclusion the guy is a total fraud. The only savior of the Constitutional relevancy to our society besides obviously the Supreme Court and the return at least a fascimile of the rule of law is basically with ourselves at the state and local level. Not to be totally cynical but obviously the USA needs the manpower to fight a war with Syria correctly...and it will be a very bloody affair of course...and just as obviously "Wall Street itself beckons as the excuse." We shall see if with the regime's back against the obvious wall they'll "go for it." Obviously this is the worst post world war 2 third year of a first term President ever--which bodes ill for the New Year and makes such "activities" far too predictable. the trigger of course will be the total economic collapse of the near entirety of Europe and the EU. Teddy Roosevelt's White Ships are such a distant memory. It's hard to imagine there was a time when we thought we could succeed without killing people.
According to western warmongers, Iran has been a few years away from developing nuclear weapons for about 30 years now so obviously Iran has had tons of time to prepare for this constantly overhanging war. Their most effective measure would obviously be to close the narrow Straits of Hormuz which 1. cuts about 40% of world seaborne crude oil transport, probably resulting quickly in $2-300 oil and 2. cutting the supply line to U.S. forces in Iraq and other U.S. vassal states at the Persian Gulf. As for 1. this would be catastrophic for the world economy (would be a gigantic windfall for oil-rich Russia though). 2., well it certainly is possible to supply those forces via air or alternate routes but the cost would be totally intolerable.
So, the probability of war is probably zero point zero. The war hype and clamor most likely originates with interests in trouble with their positions and warehouse business in stupendously overpriced commodities. It´s a very desperate pump but we see the laughable crude bubble already popping.
Does this mean our ZH pre-war celebration has to end?
Guess so. But by all means don´t let me stop you guys from accumulating overabundant stuff at outlandish prices to help delay the bankruptcy of Goldman´s warehousing business.
U.S. probably has personnel of 70-80,000 in its Gulf vassal states. About 50K in Iraq, 20K in Kuwait and a few thousand elsewhere. Most of the Iraq force is reportedly due to be withdrawn before year´s end but some of that will be relocated in Kuwait and Bahrain.
There simply isn´t a snowball´s chance in hell that U.S. is going to risk having the main supply line through the Straits of Hormuz to this large force cut. Apart from the huge cost and difficulty of supplying it by air, the loss of the vital supply route would put the force at an intolerable strategic risk.
For Russia and China to attempt to attack the US would be national suicide. The US has the capability to sink their subs (it has them shadowed wherever they go), take out their aircraft and missiles and wipe them out. They know it. They might bitch and wine but they wont start a fight unless they are directly attacked.
That doesn't mean an attack on Syria and/or Iran isn't insanity - it is - but it wont lead to WW3 unless the US does more (which it might, the Tribe are getting twitchy).
Because everyone knows the Alawite sect hates the American way of life.
Those Darn Alawites! Get them!
hey....YOU look kinda Alawitey yourself....where's that DHS tipline number?
DERP
I don't think the conflict with Syria will happen in any near future.
a) While our Gov is stupid when it comes to long term planning, they aren't that shortsighted when it comes to self preservation. Any conflict with Syria lasting longer than a few months, would push majority over the edge and would challlange the current status quo and they, Washington DC & friends, don't really want that.
Same goes with the defense industry, right now they are better off with unknown enemy than a failed state and public calling for the restaurtion of NEUTRALITY in the foreign policy.
As of the OIL sector- another big 'silent' player, there is no OIL in there.
b) Israel, the only things that they would hate as much as the strong Syria is the 'Failed' state similar to Lebanon, Syria. Right now that border is somewhat silent, and they would cry wolf given there is a real possibility of another Palestinian fraction harassing them with rockets, etc.
c) Europe, there is no OIL in there. In addition, Europe is wary of any possible restoration of the Ottoman Empire. Besides, they are currently busy with their own trobules and popular uproar.
d) Turkey, wouldn't do it on its own and would rather have someone else turn Siria into a failed state, so they could go on with a peaceful mission of restauring what plenty of their own politicians consider to be theirs, behind the curtain.
e) Russia, would do everything to discourage any intervention because it's almost the election year. They will probably blackmail EU with the GAS shortages, if there is any real danger of Sirian action. However, doubt they are taking it seriously beyond their regular election year, 'yes we can, got the power, empty reutorics.'
Then there is Jordan, which knows too well a Sirian failed state could mean the end of their regmime as well.
Why Aircraft Carrier? Simple, Russia has placed several aging ships in there, (again, election year.) and our admirals followed the old cold war habbits.
Unless of cause Turkey decided to go all in, and moved ground forces into the formation. Then, it's just oh f, since we have no idea what to do, let's do something response, but I highly doubt it.
oh well,
Happy Thanksgiving yo 'll. One day, this war is going to end, and we might start anew.
Best Luck & TY Zero Hedge.
Cursed is the ground for thy sake, in sorrow shalt thou eat of it all the days of thy life. Thorns also and thistles shall it bring forth to thee.
Our days may come to seventy years,
or eighty, if our strength endures;
yet the best of them are but trouble and sorrow
Happy Thanksgiving
Tell me not, in mournful numbers,
Life is but an empty dream! --
For the soul is dead that slumbers,
And things are not what they seem.
Life is real! Life is earnest!
And the grave is not its goal;
Dust thou art, to dust returnest,
Was not spoken of the soul.
Not enjoyment, and not sorrow,
Is our destined end or way;
But to act, that each to-morrow
Find us farther than to-day.
Art is long, and Time is fleeting,
And our hearts, though stout and brave,
Still, like muffled drums, are beating
Funeral marches to the grave.
In the world's broad field of battle,
In the bivouac of Life,
Be not like dumb, driven cattle!
Be a hero in the strife!
Trust no Future, howe'er pleasant!
Let the dead Past bury its dead!
Act, -- act in the living Present!
Heart within, and God o'erhead! ...
Longfellow
http://wonderingminstrels.blogspot.com/2001/09/psalm-of-life-henry-wadsw...
Food dryers, bitchez!
I get the feeling this whole world is tinder box just waiting to get lite. Syria might just do it, they might just be the match that sparks everything. I mean Iran might be drawn into this conflict, and if that happens, the dominoes start to fall in unpredictable ways. North Korea might find it advantageous to invade the South, Pakistan could erupt, Russia takes out Georgia. China gets freaky, or maybe just waits for the US to get weakened. Who knows where the cascade could lead. Somewhere someone is licking their chops thinking if we take out Assad, Syria might make a nice pipeline depository / terminal for that Iraqi oil. A nice bypass to the Mediterranean, avoiding the Suez and Hormuz bottlenecks. I don't like where this is going. We need to stay out of this one.
USD selling pressure continues and the prospect of an equity xmas rally and EURUSD bullish spike returns.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Russian Politics heating up again, Hawks determining national spending, as always... and now they see the U.S. at possibly the same position as they were, when they left Afghan theater, soon to be broke/wall falling down/ having to retrench the economy after lowering military spending greatly.
China watching and picking up whatever is left/crumbs, but more than willing to make available their currency as a "Petro Dollar" substitute for the none BIS middle east countries producing or inline with Oil.
Nevertell Grumman and Locknut Martin stand to lose without escalation. Both are represented by Lobby groups that directed most time/policy/defense/war/terrorist talk
in what started out as a Presidential candidate election Debate and quickly became a two-hour long foreign policy debate directed one day before the Grumman built aircraft carrier arrives off Syria and State Departments for different countries start pulling their people out of Syria.
Did I mention Lobbyists, whom knew before hand, directed the Debate, your countries future foreign policy?
Those in power, look to stay in power.
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