Albert Edwards Has Some Words Of Discouragement: Welcome To S&P 500 Hell

Tyler Durden's picture

It seems that it was only 4 months ago that Albert Edwards was channeling Dante when he advised clients that "All Hope Must Be Crushed For A True Bull Market To Emerge." It would appear that the SocGen strategist still has some bullish friends he wants to lose because he just released the follow up.

"As 30y German Bund yields slide below 2% and rapidly converge towards Japanese rates, we have a taster of what is to come in the US and UK in the months ahead. We still see US 10y yields – even now making new all-time lows – falling below 1% as hard landings occur in China and the US. The secular equity valuation bear market began in 2000 and renewed global recession will be the trigger to catalyse the third and hopefully final, gut-wrenching phase of valuation de-rating. Expect the S&P500 to decline decisively below its March 2009, 666 intraday low. All hope will be crushed."


We have long said that excess "hope" remained a major impediment to the end of this equity bear market and we believe there is still too much of it about. There won’t be by the time this is over. Investors will lose all hope, most particularly in their belief that policy makers have any idea what they are doing. We saw the same in Japan. As the investors now see the full-frontal naked impotence of their last two supposed saviours 1) the China growth story and 2) the Fed, there will be savage market retribution. In the words of George W Bush, "This sucker’s going down".

And just in case someone missed the message:

A word on the China stimulus package: amid the mounting evidence of a hard landing – that word is FUTILE.

What can one say, but a true, modern day Dante.

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fightthepower's picture

The Devil Bitches!  Fuck you Bernanke!

slaughterer's picture

10Y is on the HIGGGGHHHWAAY TO HELLLL (.666%)!

Sorry, TBTers.

TBT or not TBT.

Not TBT.  

fonzannoon's picture

It's a longt term hold....(sigh).

john_connor's picture

No leveraged ETF's are long term holds.  Short the inverse if you can find shares.


AccreditedEYE's picture

Or just buy the puts... it's worked for me. Buy 'em in the money if you're a more cautious type, out of the money if you want to roll the dice. (watch your timing on the latter!)

And to the talking heads that I've got to hear every day saying:

- Bonds can't offer the same returns as stocks going forward over the next 3-5 yrs...

- These yields won't keep up with inflation

- et al

I say, negative rates in safe-haven government bonds don't waive the flag of "all clear" on the volatility field... you equity bulls are walking into a slaughter, one that "cheap" fundamentals keep sucking more bodies into on a daily basis.  


The Big Ching-aso's picture



This S&P below 666 guy sounds like he could be the Anti-Cramer.

Oh regional Indian's picture

June 6th could well be the Black Wednesday everyone has been breath-lessly waiting for and dreading.

Everything seems to be "lining-up" so to speak.

What to speak of Venus, Pentagrams, The Sun and all such associated mega-movers.


derek_vineyard's picture

hmmm, superstition?  6-6-??  nah, unless it can become a self -fulfilling prophecy

scatterbrains's picture

neither,  TMV..  in due time

5880's picture

"Sorry, TBTers"

yeah, the early 90's was filled with guys thinking shorting JGB would be their claim to fame as well



poor fella's picture

I picture The Bernanke perusing through the comments on The Internets and completely losing it sometimes - screaming at his terminal, veins a pumpin'  - "NOOOOOOOOOOOoooo! FUCK YOUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!!  


Losers. Can't wait to hear what that Green-Fucking-Spam has to say tomorrow on CNBS...


traderjoe's picture

The Fed would never let such a decline happen. They will print, print, print.

Manthong's picture

Maybe the Bernank has a terminal on his desk, but I think he has a concealed door bookcase in his office that opens to this:

ghostzapper's picture

Sure, but what happens when after printing the positive response from stocks fades vigorously after a couple of days?  What then?


GAME OVER.  Bernanke is not a magician contrary to what Steve Liesman will try to convince you to believe when he is shining his shoes every day. 


I agree with Edwards.  Not a straight line but this turd goes below 600 by 2014 and a new bull emerges and breaks out in the 2016-2017 time period. 

Problem Is's picture

Steve Lies-man's only skill IS shining shoes...

That bald fuck can't even do that right...

Gimme a shine, Lies-man...

Pumpkin's picture

Only if it can help crush the Euro.

HedgeOn's picture

seems to me that Gary Shilling and David Rosenberg were the only ones I can think of that were calling for Treasury rally this year.  they get panned pretty regularly for what seems to be pretty sage economic advice (as opposed to trading advice).

barliman's picture


"The Infinite Improbablity Drive has been turned off.

Any aspect of reality you cannot deal with is therefore YOUR problem"

God rest ye, Douglas Adams


BLOTTO's picture

Kinda sucks that mankind is a victim of a hoax of unspeakable proportions.

We are 'entering' - a Dark Age.

History, again, is repeating itself.

Overfed's picture

The conditions are ripening all over the world.

bdc63's picture

Don't Corzine me Bro!

Dr. Engali's picture

Well shit to bed and piss the pillow. I hope it doesn't happen too soon. I'm trying to sell my hose so I can do more stacking. 

bdc63's picture

how much is your hose worth?

Dr. Engali's picture

Oops typing challenged . That should  say mouse ;->

tiwimon's picture

"Oops typing challenged . That should  say mouse ;->"


Unless your selling Mickey or Minnie, don't expect much for any other mouse in this economy


toady's picture

Rat meat is pretty tasty if you season it right.

Spastica Rex's picture

Must be some high dollar hose.

Dr. Engali's picture

Yes ...I admit...since my recent divorce I have started pleasuring the ladies and charging for the service of my hose ;->.

garypaul's picture

depends who's in it... especially if she's wearing Spastica LOL

SokPOTUS's picture

It was a misspelling.  He meant "Ho's"; not "hose".

Clueless Economist's picture


wisefool's picture

Bic lighter for $4,000. and I'll throw in these front row+VIP rolling stones tickets for free!

Overfed's picture

Just bought a new hose the other day. Damn things are pricey these days. :-)

Eclipse89's picture

Welcome to the hell, bitchez!

Ben "Lucifer" Bernanke is waiting for you. Just keep digging!

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

That Bullish, 10 gigatrillion bailout coming

Al Huxley's picture

Nothin' too crazy required.  Just the mandatory annual 1.5 trillion (and rising) to cover the deficit.  And yet there are those who say 'the FED won't print'.  Ha ha, who the fuck do they think is covering that 1.5 T deficit?

monopoly's picture

That might be a bit extreme but lower markets later this year. You bet.

orangegeek's picture

The SP500 is denominated in US Dollars.  As the USD rises (because of falling Euro), current share prices will likely decline.


How low will the SP500 go?  Depends on how high the USD goes/ how low the Euro goes.


SP500's daily elliott wave count is bearish.

Agent P's picture

The Fed will print, the dollar will fall, and stocks will rise long before the S&P sees a six handle...nine, probably...eight,, I doubt it...six, no. 


illyia's picture

Sucks but true. I wonder how much rope is left?

Eireann go Brach's picture

Obama just bitch slapped Biden in the oval office after Joe read him this!

Problem Is's picture

Clueless Joe can read?

Barry Soetoro can't...

Bitch admited he never read his lobbyist written 2200 page health care... <cough>... Corporate Health Insurance Industry Welfare Bill...

Fail2Deliver's picture

All bullish indicators; QE3 coming and Apple TV by Christmas.

surf0766's picture

Now more hope rallies on hope something? I am so disappointed.