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Albert Edwards Has Some Words Of Discouragement: Welcome To S&P 500 Hell
It seems that it was only 4 months ago that Albert Edwards was channeling Dante when he advised clients that "All Hope Must Be Crushed For A True Bull Market To Emerge." It would appear that the SocGen strategist still has some bullish friends he wants to lose because he just released the follow up.
"As 30y German Bund yields slide below 2% and rapidly converge towards Japanese rates, we have a taster of what is to come in the US and UK in the months ahead. We still see US 10y yields – even now making new all-time lows – falling below 1% as hard landings occur in China and the US. The secular equity valuation bear market began in 2000 and renewed global recession will be the trigger to catalyse the third and hopefully final, gut-wrenching phase of valuation de-rating. Expect the S&P500 to decline decisively below its March 2009, 666 intraday low. All hope will be crushed."
We have long said that excess "hope" remained a major impediment to the end of this equity bear market and we believe there is still too much of it about. There won’t be by the time this is over. Investors will lose all hope, most particularly in their belief that policy makers have any idea what they are doing. We saw the same in Japan. As the investors now see the full-frontal naked impotence of their last two supposed saviours 1) the China growth story and 2) the Fed, there will be savage market retribution. In the words of George W Bush, "This sucker’s going down".
And just in case someone missed the message:
A word on the China stimulus package: amid the mounting evidence of a hard landing – that word is FUTILE.
What can one say, but a true, modern day Dante.
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The Devil Bitches! Fuck you Bernanke!
10Y is on the HIGGGGHHHWAAY TO HELLLL (.666%)!
Sorry, TBTers.
TBT or not TBT.
Not TBT.
It's a longt term hold....(sigh).
No leveraged ETF's are long term holds. Short the inverse if you can find shares.
Or just buy the puts... it's worked for me. Buy 'em in the money if you're a more cautious type, out of the money if you want to roll the dice. (watch your timing on the latter!)
And to the talking heads that I've got to hear every day saying:
- Bonds can't offer the same returns as stocks going forward over the next 3-5 yrs...
- These yields won't keep up with inflation
- et al
I say, negative rates in safe-haven government bonds don't waive the flag of "all clear" on the volatility field... you equity bulls are walking into a slaughter, one that "cheap" fundamentals keep sucking more bodies into on a daily basis.
This S&P below 666 guy sounds like he could be the Anti-Cramer.
June 6th could well be the Black Wednesday everyone has been breath-lessly waiting for and dreading.
Everything seems to be "lining-up" so to speak.
What to speak of Venus, Pentagrams, The Sun and all such associated mega-movers.
ori
ORI is an under-appreciated oracle.
:-)
Agree.
hmmm, superstition? 6-6-?? nah, unless it can become a self -fulfilling prophecy
neither, TMV.. in due time
"Sorry, TBTers"
yeah, the early 90's was filled with guys thinking shorting JGB would be their claim to fame as well
I picture The Bernanke perusing through the comments on The Internets and completely losing it sometimes - screaming at his terminal, veins a pumpin' - "NOOOOOOOOOOOoooo! FUCK YOUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!!
hahahaha
Losers. Can't wait to hear what that Green-Fucking-Spam has to say tomorrow on CNBS...
oh BTW - FUCK YOU GREENSPAN!!!!
The Fed would never let such a decline happen. They will print, print, print.
Maybe the Bernank has a terminal on his desk, but I think he has a concealed door bookcase in his office that opens to this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AY09DJkQMY
Sure, but what happens when after printing the positive response from stocks fades vigorously after a couple of days? What then?
GAME OVER. Bernanke is not a magician contrary to what Steve Liesman will try to convince you to believe when he is shining his shoes every day.
I agree with Edwards. Not a straight line but this turd goes below 600 by 2014 and a new bull emerges and breaks out in the 2016-2017 time period.
Steve Lies-man's only skill IS shining shoes...
That bald fuck can't even do that right...
Gimme a shine, Lies-man...
Only if it can help crush the Euro.
seems to me that Gary Shilling and David Rosenberg were the only ones I can think of that were calling for Treasury rally this year. they get panned pretty regularly for what seems to be pretty sage economic advice (as opposed to trading advice).
"The Infinite Improbablity Drive has been turned off.
Any aspect of reality you cannot deal with is therefore YOUR problem"
God rest ye, Douglas Adams
barliman
Kinda sucks that mankind is a victim of a hoax of unspeakable proportions.
We are 'entering' - a Dark Age.
History, again, is repeating itself.
will Adolf be back, too?
The conditions are ripening all over the world.
Don't Corzine me Bro!
Well shit to bed and piss the pillow. I hope it doesn't happen too soon. I'm trying to sell my hose so I can do more stacking.
how much is your hose worth?
Oops typing challenged . That should say mouse ;->
"Oops typing challenged . That should say mouse ;->"
Unless your selling Mickey or Minnie, don't expect much for any other mouse in this economy
Rat meat is pretty tasty if you season it right.
Must be some high dollar hose.
The ladies love him!
Yes ...I admit...since my recent divorce I have started pleasuring the ladies and charging for the service of my hose ;->.
depends who's in it... especially if she's wearing Spastica LOL
It was a misspelling. He meant "Ho's"; not "hose".
YOU WILL BE LUCKY TO GET A THIN SILVER DIME FOR YOUR GARDEN HOSE.
Bic lighter for $4,000. and I'll throw in these front row+VIP rolling stones tickets for free!
Just bought a new hose the other day. Damn things are pricey these days. :-)
Male prostitute?
Welcome to the hell, bitchez!
Ben "Lucifer" Bernanke is waiting for you. Just keep digging!
That Bullish, 10 gigatrillion bailout coming
Nothin' too crazy required. Just the mandatory annual 1.5 trillion (and rising) to cover the deficit. And yet there are those who say 'the FED won't print'. Ha ha, who the fuck do they think is covering that 1.5 T deficit?
That might be a bit extreme but lower markets later this year. You bet.
The SP500 is denominated in US Dollars. As the USD rises (because of falling Euro), current share prices will likely decline.
How low will the SP500 go? Depends on how high the USD goes/ how low the Euro goes.
SP500's daily elliott wave count is bearish.
http://bullandbearmash.com/index/sp-500/daily/
The Fed will print, the dollar will fall, and stocks will rise long before the S&P sees a six handle...nine, probably...eight, maybe...seven, I doubt it...six, no.
Sucks but true. I wonder how much rope is left?
Obama just bitch slapped Biden in the oval office after Joe read him this!
Clueless Joe can read?
Barry Soetoro can't...
Bitch admited he never read his lobbyist written 2200 page health care... <cough>... Corporate Health Insurance Industry Welfare Bill...
All bullish indicators; QE3 coming and Apple TV by Christmas.
Now more hope rallies on hope something? I am so disappointed.
Plan A ZIRP
and if that don't work go to
Plan B NIRP - Negative Interest Rate
I'm not greedy - I'd be thrilled with S&P 900 at this point...
S&P 666 won't happen because it would make me just too damn happy.
You may hate it as I do, but expect green today. The windows are naked.
i expect green too....on FAZ
That would be the real BTFD moment, if you are into robbing graves I suppose.
My only hope is that it makes Blankfein, Fuld, Mozillo, and Corzine jump together.
isn't this completely disregarding the massive money printing which would go into effect in an election year if things go down very far from here?
There's a Bernanke Put somewhere around the 1000-1050 level, i think Edwards just wants some more exposure (which he's clearly getting) as the amount of liquidity pumped into this market from virtually all sides of the world would make it quite hard to dump and everything and go.
Of course, a bank failure a year prior was the reason for the 2009 low, perhaps an EU bank failure is in the cards this time - at which point, all bets are off, and all the QE programs will have officially failed.
French cooking is a 100 year old cliche'....when there was nothing else ! You want to know the basic 4 food groups ? Go to the freezer section: Chinese, Mexican, Italian and AMERICAN ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Simplify Life Tour
In SNAP-card America, the four food groups are Sugar, Fiber, Fat and Alcohol.
In SNAP-card America, the four food groups are Sugar, Salt, Fat and Alcohol.
Fixed it for you.
In SNAP-card America, the four food groups are Sugar, Fiber, Fat and Alcohol.
You forgot Mercedes,and fine clothes,its hell to have a job in the USA you get so screwed....................and NO more sugar, Bloomberg has so decreed!!!.
Dumb Bstds, dont you even get to choose what you eat & drink now.Bloomie, you paying for it?.
How can anyone (sane) live in that fascist state?.Bloomberg is a Douchebag Deluxe hanging model.
Evidently he's been consorting with the local Nazi's.He's a skinhead and no one realizes it.
Order French Fries to go with that.
Everything points to more banker bonuses.
It's never over until there isn't a buck to be made anywhere. That goes for you too China.
short of yellowstone erupting..its not going to happen..when they brought back mark to magic accounting in march of 09..the time to be short was over..
Hey then go BTFD! Put up or shut up!
Favourite quote from a newspaper story as the the killer third wave of the "Great Crash of '29" commenced: "They held their ground 'til the ground itself gave way beneath them."
Every capitulation of a formerly sound mind to the laughable notion that money can be printed in whatever quantity needed to forestall the onset of economic reality is another contrary indicator ... another canary hitting the floor of another cage, so ... go on, boyz and gurlz ... drink your Kool-Aid ... rather tasty, ain't it.
BTW ... FWIW (not much, I suppose by the reckoning of most folks these mad days) the venerable Richard Russell points out today that according to Dow Theory, the following three simple facts:
1) Dow Transports failed to confirm the recent high in the Industrials; 2) & 3) Both broke down below their recent lows ...
together amount to an unequivocal Primary Bear Signal. The additional fact that so few will refuse to see it as even a possibility will amount to, well ... more canaries hitting the floors of more cages, so flame away all ye who cower in awe of the great Monetary Masters ... sure, They've got it all figured out and nothing can stop Them. They're omnipotent and Nature herself will bow down and kiss Their fragrant feet.
All Hail Bernanke the Bearslayer!
CORRECTION:
... together amount to an unequivocal Primary Bear Signal. The additional fact that so many will refuse to see it as even a possibility will amount to, well ... etc.
Yea? WHEN?
Quarterly gun show in Indy at the fairgrounds this weekend bitches. Come buy, sell and trade the currencies of our new dawning era.
Hi Mom
+1, stoopid but original, at least to ZH, as far as I know for the last 2+ years.
30-year fixed mortgage rates might drop below 3%! And prices still dropping on houses. Who's gonna be left to rent the REO homes?
.gov can rent from itself. Just have HUD give Section 8 vouchers for the Fannie/Freddie/FHA REO-owned rental properties... Simple.
But Obomba is starting to use the word "Hope" again in speeches. And I'm learning to play "Happy Days Are Here Again" on the uklele. Are you sayin' there is somethin' wrong?
In heaven, you get a harp. In hell, you get an accordion.
Bagpipes.
not an accordian, bagpipes. <fixed>
dup
This shows how the bond/stock market is completely manipulated.
"Get real. Get physical. Gold." ~TLT
Despite being simply beautiful, I agree with paperbugs that you can`t eat gold, etc. But in what I would invest my money? Gold is the only option left.
Despite being simply beautiful, I agree with paperbugs that you can`t eat gold, etc.
You can't eat gold, but you sure can wipe your ass with paper.
It's called "folding money" for a reason and the time to fold is a coming.
SPX at 666 means 10-yr goes 2-yr means 2-yr. A refi at 2.5% is just the thing Ben needs for his mandate and Barry needs for another 4 years driving the bus into the abyss.
One cant continue driving a bus into the abyss when its already hit rock bottom. We're simply now hearing the driver yelling thru shattered teeth 'All is WELL!'
I do appreciate a clear message.
BU, but, Dougie Kass said to Kudlow that 666 was a generational low. Maybe he was thinking of fruit fly generations.
When?
When?
WHEN?
Albert keeps on saying this but the 'when' is important. We all know the market will crash again one day - the question is WHEN?
June? This Summer? This year? Sometime in the next decade?
Give us an idea Albert! He is beginning to remind me of a British comedy character called 'Uncle Albert' who served as a sailor in World War Two and every ship he served on sunk!
Long term charts do suggest a possibility of SP 450. Or lower. If anyone thinks the economy in the US and the social situation sucks now......just wait.
Long term charts do suggest a possibility of SP 450. Or lower. If anyone thinks the economy in the US and the social situation sucks now......just wait.
Why you think an order was placed for 625 million rounds of ammo, for the new Brown Shirts?.
I am eagerly awaiting the real Soldiers ideas on this.................they are dying for supposed freedom all over the world, but slaves at home, this will not end well.
Elegantly said.
Chris Rea - The Road To Hell Full Version
It's misspelled. The corect spelling is "futil€".
The when is very easy, two potential options exist:
a) within the next three months the decline to 666 or lower starts or,
b) it starts right after the election after Obama's printfest ends if in fact this option is activated.
There you have it, impossible to get any more precise than this.
But the ultimate outcome will be the same. The Indices are tracking like a mirror image of Japan since the 90's or the 1930's 20 year crash until the Marshall plan and post WWII started the next major US boom.
To Ben if you are reading this, HIDE!!!!!!!
Buying opportunity! Buy, Buy, Bi, bye-bye
There is no ryme or reason for a market crash, you can throw away your economic text books, elliot wave theory, when the robber barons want it to crash it will crash. The evil bastards need the poilce state grid up and running then they'll crash it.
Can I get that before my July puts expire?
I believe the Fed is playing ping pong between deflationary deleveraging and inflationary money printing. Once deflation kicks in QE3 will be launched. My target for deflation to kick in is late June to early July and QE shortly afterwards. QE to infinity until Treasury Bonds default.