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All That Matters: Today's DC Agenda

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Since all macro and micro news has now become redundant, with politics, specifically headlines, the sole driving force behind each and every market move, especially today when Boehner's plan is expected to pass Congress only to be deadended in the Senate, here is a complete list of what is on the docket in DC today. Keep in mind that this list is most likely to change on a moment's notice as DC comes up with "new and worse" plans virtually by the minute.

House votes on debt limit bill late afternoon, while the Senate waits...

The endgame is coming into focus a bit more now, with discussion of the potential modifications the Senate could make to the House bill taking place and producing some specifics. As we have noted in recent days, the crux of the issue is deciding on an enforcement mechanism that provides reasonable certainty regarding the debt limit after this week, but that also makes it nearly certain that Congress will act on a second round of savings from a special committee envisioned in both bills.  Ideas on the table at this point are (1) a“clawback” of the debt limit increase if the committee reforms haven’t become law, which would not require a second vote if the fiscal committee follows through, but would require another vote if they did not; (2) a provision that makes the recommendation of the fiscal committee law automatically if Congress fails to consider it; or (3) simply shortening the extension of the debt limit so that it expires around October, which might give the committee enough time to develop savings, but would not push another debt limit increase vote into next year.

9:00 am – House Democrats hold closed meeting.

Morning – Senator Reid expected to release revised version of Senate debt limit bill.  The Congressional Budget Office estimated that his bill would save $2.2 trillion (counting $1.1 trillion in savings from Iraq/Afghanistan drawdown that is likely to occur regardless), rather than the $2.7 he had previously announced. Speaker Boehner had the same problem with his bill.  Coming up with an extra $200bn to match the $2.4 trillion debt limit increase should be manageable. The modified bill, however, is not yet likely to include what has become the key component of reaching a bipartisan deal noted above: devising an enforcement mechanism for the deficit reduction committee that would be established that does not require a second vote on the debt limit increase, but also guarantees that the reforms the commission is charged with producing are actually achieved.  But any news of compromise on this sort of mechanism will be the key sign that an agreement is close at hand.

10:45 am – House Minority Leader Pelosi press conference.  It is expected that very few (low single digits) Democrats will vote for the debt limit legislation that comes to the floor later today.

11:00 am – White House daily press briefing…

12:00 pm – House starts debate on Boehner debt limit bill.

1:00 pm – Rep. Michelle Bachmann speaks at the National Press Club. Bachmann is a Republican presidential candidate and one of the few House Republicans who voted against the House’s “Cut Cap and Balance Act” due to her strong opposition to raising the debt limit.

1:30 pm – House Speaker Boehner and other Republican leaders hold press conference…

Late Afternoon– House votes on Boehner debt limit bill.  As noted above, the House will start considering the Boehner debt limit bill at noon. It will consider the “rule for debate” on the bill for one hour, vote on the rule, then consider the bill itself for two hours, and conduct one or two votes (the vote on final passage, and perhaps one other motion).  That makes three hours of debate total, plus two or three votes, putting the final vote right around the market close at 4:00 pm if everything runs according to that schedule, but potentially a bit later if any delays occur.     After looking yesterday as if it lacked the support  needed to pass, the Boehner bill now looks likely to get the necessary votes.  The revised version is now estimated to reduce the deficit by $917bn over ten years; it would establish a committee to find more savings by year end.    All 53 Democrats (and independents who caucus with them) sent Speaker Boehner a letter yesterday indicating they would vote against this proposal, leaving its status in limbo. But since the Reid bill does not appear to have enough support to pass both chambers either, additional changes are likely (for instance, the “clawback” idea for the second debt limit vote) that could be enough to produce common ground ahead of the Aug. 2 deadline. 

Source: Goldman Sachs

 


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Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:33 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
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"9:00 AM:  House Democrats hold closed meeting."

or is that supposed to read closed-minded meeting?

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:31 | Link to Comment Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture

 

 

Expect a party when the junkie gets his fix.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:32 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Just remember, Congress can pass a one page paper airplane of a bill to raise the limit, and do it at 11:45 PM Monday night.

The most likely outcome now is that the Republican leadership, Democrats, and 'moderate' Republicans in the House pass a simple debt ceiling increase while the right wing has an Alamo experience voting against it.  Vote would be something like 355-80.

 

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:38 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

I get a strange feelling a fillibuster will happen in the senate of if they pass a paper airplane.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:40 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Strange that not one senator has ever filibustered a debt ceiling increase since 1917....or maybe it's not strange at all....

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:33 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Curiously how do you get a job that makes you a millionaire and all you have to do is sit around and bitch and accomplish nothing?  I'm not much for the end of the world 2012 scenario but the way things are going 2012 better hurry up and get here lol.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:10 | Link to Comment Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

It is ridiculous... and they're all so entrenched in the inability to give a straight answer - my wife attended an internship at the white house last fall and I got a tour of the white house from one of the top security guys... Every question i asked about anything political came with the response "Well thats not simple to answer..." followed by a drawn out dialogue that never actually answered anything... I was asking ZH type questions though lol

The white house was a cool place - lot of history (by american standards) - but i can see why everything is such a shambles politically...

I'm actually very glad I'm on my 10 year green card... I was going to get citizenship straight away but now i'm just gonna live and work here mulling it over ;-)

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:35 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Another round of sell off's which will render "the market" short term oversold, followed by a rally on the "debt plan" followed by another sell off on "the debt plan" and so forth :)))!

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:36 | Link to Comment wrs
wrs's picture

I don't think they are going to pass anything before Aug 2.  If they do, the Tea Party is dead.  This is another rollover to the bankers and if the people matter, nothing will pass.  The more the MSM says people will be hurt if this doesn't pass, the more the bankers will be hurt.  The people are screwed anyway, the bankers are just making sure they get all they can before it's get out of Dodge time.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:37 | Link to Comment jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

ROFLMAO,  anyone else watch CNBC just now and the paid pumper trader they have on everyday said.  A default because you can't pay your bills is different than a default because you can't decide how to pay your bills.  ROFLMAO   No wonder I don't watch that show, and I wish I didn't turn it on for the fudged unemployment numbers   ROFLMAO  Where do they dig these clowns up at?

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:37 | Link to Comment MonkeySmoke
MonkeySmoke's picture

Pass the bread, please, as the circus is beginning in earnest.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:38 | Link to Comment Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Fiddling on the Titanic is serious business...

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:41 | Link to Comment waldocktrades
waldocktrades's picture

Waiting for the resolution rally to sell stock index futures. Tired of trading the news and just want to get back to trading the damn markets.

I've got a plan - http://bit.ly/qpUb2o

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:41 | Link to Comment waldocktrades
waldocktrades's picture

Waiting for the resolution rally to sell stock index futures. Tired of trading the news and just want to get back to trading the damn markets.

I've got a plan - http://bit.ly/qpUb2o

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:43 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

think the debt ceiling debate is all that is holding up stocks, italian and spanish bonds sucking wind again

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:43 | Link to Comment oldmanagain
oldmanagain's picture

The charade is using the debt ceiling as a legislative jumping off place.  These are bills owed.  Tea pary is looking stupid.  

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:45 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

This is all so boring. Raise the damn ceiling, lets get up to 16 trillion and do it again. Stopped trading this market a while back. Makes little sense. Our economy is not growing, it is contracting at a slow steady pace.

Bloomberg:

Container-Ship Plunge Signals U.S. Slowdown
Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:45 | Link to Comment Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Additionally, I was watching these bums yesterday prattle on and on about the debt ceiling; some actually used the market as a reason to rush toward some resolve, saying it was nervous and shaky or whatever.  However, at the time stocks were an eyelash from the local highs, treasury yields were a stones throw from generational lows, and credit spreads indicated no signs of distress.  It was as if they were reading the script for the film Armageddon whilst on the set of Sesame Street.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:49 | Link to Comment MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

Teaparty is/are being hijacked by the Handlers. Just another stage to keep your little minds occupied. Just look at the Repubs, (not a good comparison).

Face it, we are ruled by a financial oligarchy. Once accepted, place yourselves in their shoes and be profitable living like a king.

Of course, you must always think reduction of masses, and the like.

Good Luck Slaverades!

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:46 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Go fuck yourself.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:38 | Link to Comment MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

The Truth Hurts !! I really do feel for you, when someone talks against your team.

Kinda like the football mentality. Sucks being a loser, doesn't it?Remember, these politicians are placed in power for a reason. They care nothing for you.  

 

They build you up, and tear you down. Don't be discouraged, my message to you is be at peace and stop playing their game..

Take your eyes off the stage, and concentrate on the people you can help next to you.

You and they are going to need all the help you can get,,,shortly.

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:10 | Link to Comment rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

"when Boehner's plan is expected to pass Congress only to be deadended in the Senate"

correction:

"when Boehner's plan is expected to pass the House only to be deadended in the Senate"

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:37 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

I get the impression that "Congress" is being widely bastardized to mean the House of Representatives these days. 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 11:24 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

That is the portion of the article I was wondering about, but not regarding the symantics you point out.

The last I heard, boner didn't have the votes to pass it... Now he does?

All I can find is information speculating that the teabaggers are being broken and dragged into the greater GOP.

I suppose only the final vote will tell.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:48 | Link to Comment TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

Barack Obama is a boob: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43924372

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 23:51 | Link to Comment karmete
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