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All For One, And One For All...
Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
Ignoring the knee-jerk reaction of stocks to rally 4% on the headlines that Dexia will be save and other banks will be recapitalized, it is worth thinking about what this really means and the next logical steps.
For now I will not even focus on the fact that this was from a meeting of Finance Ministers and not heads of state. I left my "EU Leadership" trading cards at the office, but so far, not many of the big names, who can actually close the deal, have spoken. I won't even focus on the fact that Dexia has been on the fringe of "contagion" discussion. Look at articles about "contagion" or "debt crisis" and PIIGS and French Banks and German Banks and Italian Banks show up in nearly every article. Dexia is discussed less frequently, though ZeroHedge has been on top of it for awhile. So stocks rose 4% on a plan of a plan to plan a plan for a bank they hadn't heard of until this morning. Hmmm.
Dexia had 566 Billion Eur of assets at the end of the year. It currently has a 2 Billion Eur market cap. How many of these assets are "bad" assets? Someone is going to have to lend against those bad assets. Sounds like France and Belgium are up for the job. Belgium has Debt of 322 Billion Eur and GDP of 340 Billion Eur. How much of the bad debt can Belgium realistically finance? How many assets will the "good" bank have? How much equity capital will it need? What are the "good" assets? The bad assets are sovereign loans, residential real estate loans, commercial real estate loans? Are the good assets just bonds of other banks? Dexia is not small, and both the "good" bank and "bad" bank are likely to be sizable entities.
Will the assets be transferred at market prices? Is there a chance the market will be horrified when they realize how big the unmarked losses are? If they aren't transferred at market, how can the countries that are providing the financing justify that to their citizens? This may shine a lot on just how bad the bank's books are and that may trigger the contagion everyone bending over backwards to avoid. Who will want to invest equity in the "good" bank? The management that got the bank into this situation will still be there, so it is unlikely to attract private investors in size. If we learned anything during our own crisis, it was that "good" assets tend to become "bad" assets a quarter or two down the road as the economy struggles. Think back to the first time the US proposed MLEC (some form of bad bank). Half of what was considered good at the time, is what dragged Bear and AIG down.
More importantly, where does this leave France? France is going to have to bear the brunt of the burden. Belgium is just too small to save Dexia. France is big enough, but will the rating agencies just sit around and wait for France to destroy their sovereign wealth by propping up banks? BNP has a 33 Billion Eur market cap, with assets of almost 2 TRILLION Eur. I'm guessing some of those assets are loans to Dexia or why would the French government be so eager to get involved?
How much equity would "recapitalize" someone like BNP? Can the bad assets be shifted to the French government? Can the share price survive a 50% dilution if that is what was required? The governments can recapitalize, but how much capital is necessary and how much will it dilute existing shareholders? How much equity investment can the French government support? I guess they can support a lot, but I remain convinced that the rating agencies are getting nervous leaving them with an unblemished AAA rating. They are being so cavalier with sovereign money to protect private money, that something has to give.
But France isn't even the biggest concern. What about the Italian Banks? Who will help them? Italy? Then who will help Italy? They just got downgraded by Moody's - a 3 notch downgrade and left on watch. That is about as bad as a downgrade gets. Italy, already with debt to GDP above 100%, already on the hook for about 85 Billion Eur of EFSF money is going to have to recapitalize its own banks and take on their bad debt? Intesa with 18 Billion Eur market cap and 659 Billion Eur of assets is not a small problem for Italy. If each country is going to back its own banks, won't that just drag down the weakest countries? If France and Germany come to the rescue, won't that just drag them down?
This is becoming a national problem. Each country will have to deal with it as best as can be. If there was already bail-out fatigue regarding sovereigns, how many citizens will want to bail-out banks in other countries?
If no bank in Europe will ever default or having any risk, then it makes sense for MS in particular to rebound, to the extent it was only down on concerns about exposure to European banks. But how long will that last before people get concerned that the countries cannot afford the bailouts?
I think the markets will be horribly disappointed with this announcement in the end. It will turn out difficult to implement in any case, and will not be enough to stem the fears of contagion. It will use up enough funds that there will be growing concern of the sovereign crisis spreading, and fears that money that was meant to be spent buying PIIGS bonds in the secondary market is going into equity investments in banks. Too much money was lent too poorly. There is not enough money to fix it. They have to print money or let some real losses be realized. Tomorrow could be fun again, but I think this euphoric rise in the markets will be short lived again.
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Meanwhile, here's some consumer advice from your friendly Senator Durbin:
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/10/durbin-to-bank-of-america-c...
Great, Thanks... I guess
How are you the first commentor on every article I read here?
You could not have read, understood, and developed a cogent thought in response to this article in 3 minutes.
Are you hitting refresh every second all day?
TD posts on Twitter when a story new. Keep an eye on that and you can get the jump on him.
What's Twitter?
It's a primary information source used by HFT trading algorithms.
Great, now people in my office think I'm insane because I started laughing out loud. That line is classic.
Do you want to Occupy Wall Street? Then withdraw 100$ in change and do something about it.
Do you REALLY want to Occupy Wall Street? Then spread the word and withdraw 200$ in change.
wall st's latest scam IPO because sheeple didn't learn it the first dotcom bubble.
Was that them silly stocks in that silly exchange that is still off about 50% from where it was in January of 2000 by chance?
Those are the good ones who survived.
The rest like E.Piphany which rose 10000% then crashed are gone.
Obama trying to launch facebook into China, gather database full of personal information of communist regime's slaves I mean citizens, then sell it to Chinese military to pay the US debt off. Throw LinkedIn into the deal with resumes of unemployable Americans with liberal arts degrees so China can study American consumer tastes.
Capitalism American style!
20 years later, we can thank china with this gift: a t-shirt that says "We bought facebook for $10Trillion and all we got is this lousy t-shirt"
lol
And you were able to read the post, scan the comments, write a comment, and edit the comment all in 9 minutes?
Maybe he is a Hedgefund super computer
Yea it took me about 10 minutes.
Scan comments? Uh, it's the first one.
Before you edited your time stamp was 6 minutes after the article posted.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-h3ynPZEOM4
Multiple screens, I read whilst being read to, I'm also over at Jesse's Cafe. And making currency but not during bullshit ramps...
It's an elaborate operation here.
Bob, Jealous much???
And I think the author (and ZH in general) is also jealous that all his logic and fundamentally sound reasoning can't make make the market go down...the market will rage against the light, the truth, the cold hard reality that it's really a pure piece of fraudulent shit. That inconvient truth aside, time to BTFD???
Bleeding with jealousy
So much jealousy I need to innovate new ways to lament it.
Sadly, he's almost correct.
Not jealous, incredulous! For the last three years the market has levitated on "less bad" news and on rumors. It makes no sense.
Any port in a storm...any rally on news ( any damn news will do)
St. Louis BOA is currently barricaded by SWAT. Video....
http://video.godlikeproductions.com/video/SWAT_Teams_in_St_Louis_Protect...
shenanigans. that videos is for aug 12 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtI85Zc6Oik&feature=re%ADlated
look at 1:47. same guy talkin to the 'swat'.
and here is again http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uekO-f_AsbQ&feature=related at 1:11 on 8/12/2011. Planned rally.
that vid is no good... shows rain. sunny today in STL. besides, god like productions is itself a psyop run by some military guys to experiement with manipulation on the internet. sure some posters sometimes post interesting stuff... but there is so much bullshit on that site to make it not worthwhile.
thx for the info. Well, back to my hole.
Riiight.
That's the beauty of any good psyop. Enough truth to attract attention, with enough disinfo to muddy the distinction between the two.
Sort of like your comment...
"So stocks rose 4% on a plan of a plan to plan a plan"
Sounds like a plan. I wish I was that smart, so that I can be a trader
Boooyaa! Oh yea baby! Cramers chattin up this phoney rally big time! Yea! Buy Buy buy bye bye bye! Friggin moron, he used to trade, but now he is banned, all part of a settlement with the SEC.
...it was a beautiful Belgian day. The smell of waffles and Brussels's sprouts filled the summer air...
[/dr. evil]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMHseTcZdJ4&feature=related
pete! you're alive! i had my doubts there. did you hang on or get sqeezed out?
Added to SPXU and MS puts at the close...... just going to wait until the Bear reels this BS back in....and then some.
same here. I grabbed some MS Oct 12 puts.
It's not Hmmmmm ...it's pure HA HA HA
This is becoming a clear joke. Manipulated markets, MSM puppets in perfect harmony, short squeezing sheeps
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tquot-aR4JI
They will all have to borrow money to save the other ones...
uh.... hmmm, do you have to be totally brain dead to be in this bankster club?
Dexia's demise will be messy. Not only will Belgium and possibly France get downgraded for doing this, but the bondholders might have to take a haircut, triggering CDS's written on these. This is far from over.
Gotta figure a France downgrade is pretty much guaranteed due to the guarantees.
What I wonder is, when does Germany get downgraded? Sooner or later all this shit will fall on them.
ok...so does this mean I should break out that 4 year old tab of acid in my freezer or what?
forex charts look much cooler on acid.
I may have to add a couple of bottles of Chimay to the mix just to round out the whole Belgium theme.
Well done sir.
That's where you get your 'alien' IQ!
See 'ya here ~8D
***** "Demonstrators that don't know what they are demonstrating for or against. Law makers that are passing legislation and regulation on things they have no understanding of just for the sake of political grandstanding. People getting paid huge salaries for not producing and taking the company down the drain. A media that seldom reports things correctly or completely.
Ain't America great? We're all idiots" *****
stolen quote.. but it was to good not to share! all credit to the orginal poster of the quote! take a bow!
http://www.wallstreetandtech.com/regulatory-compliance/231700239?cid=nl_wallstreettech_daily
There is no real money in the market - outflows for months, hedge fund redemptions and retail investors are all but gone. No QE3 (yet)...so, what other than short covering could send the market higher?
The Check is in the mail, really, it is.___________ Of course I'm good for it!__________ Look at the American Stock Market for Pete's sake, they believe me!
It must be a cunning plan.
BBVA: World record volume today
I knew the "fix was in", I was watching huge block buying in BBVA all day.
It traded world record volume, somebody knew that a bailout for all these PIIGS was underway.
And anybody notice how PM's were totally slaughtered on purpose, within hours of the "Bailout" news?
No doubt, the PigMen were flushing out the weak ones and buying for themselves.
Example #12,546,782 why you don't buy anything on spec or margin. Ever.
So, to summarize, the following are the options:
1. Print a fuckload of Euros and bail out the banks.
2. Print a fuckload of US dollars and backdoor bail out the banks.
It seems pretty obvious that #2 is a lot more likely than #1 (though both could definitely occur), but regardless, there's going to be a shitfuckload more currency out there, a near zero nominal growth rate in developed countries, and a deeply negative real growth rate in developed countries.
Bullish!
Free market is dead!
Insider trading is now legit.
US economy is basically socialist since 1/2 of GDP depends on government spending.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405311190407060457651479159131930...
A song stuck in my head.......how low can you go? How low can the DOW go?
I wonder if those random number generators which perport to gauge world psychic thoughts are registering nonrandomness.
I had Dexia, but the doctor gave me a cream and it got better...
Ohh man, you got taken, 'Dexia' is worse than the herps...
I had no idea of a "bailout" sold puts this morning with a "short term bounce/squeeze" on my mind, yet "euro trash news" blatantly manipulated squeezing the shit out of everything was not yet in my cards, well sometimes it's better to be lucky then smart!
Did shorted again though, this fake market will come down, even if in lockstep "only" but it will and there is money to be made!
There seems to be a battle being waged between macro and micro. The media can goose the market at will for short period.
Sounds like they at least know how much money they have to print. LOL.
From this piece, it looks like there are a lot of folks grasping for the same straw
good luck to all om
Good points, Peter. I see what ya sayin" Sure! The market had time to really digest this for the uptake feast! But don't play it this time, Pete. Take it easy. Stay in cash. Because what is supposed to happen in this market virtually never hapens. Just let it play out and don't give into your impulses.
LIstening to CBC radio and they are talking about Dexia and the Canadian link (RBC). Questioning whether it is stilll solvent.
Psst... hey all... I have a plan... tomorrow when the market is going down tonnes cos of this bailout stuffish thing being rubbish and downgrades an all I am going to lance a boiled sweet rumour... Belgian chocs are the best.... and saved the world
There that should be good for a 900 point rally on the dow
Practically speaking -
The not quite "Free Market" in the US has been producing most of everyone's including buffon Bernanke's food, clothing, shelter, transportation, energy, health care, etc for how long now? Seems like this almost free market's most productive period was in the 1890's, before the fed & commercial banks were given the right to create the paper money these almost free markets need as a medium of exchange & store of value.
But since the fed was created the value of this medium of exchange has decreased by 92 % is it? But real output of the almost free market has grown at an annual averag of 3-4%. Seems pretty clear that the almost free market is doing a better job of producing our "stuff" than the fed & commercial banks are doing producing our medium of exchange.
So my question is why don't we let the almost free markets produce our medium of exchange & store of value as well as all our stuff?
Look folks it's really simple.
France loans it to Belgium, Belgium loans it to Dexia, and Dexia buys French sovereign debt with the loan.
Italy buys Dexia paper, and France as a favor buys Intesa paper. Then France and Italy lean on the swap lines with the US to get some free dollars so they can reprice their own debt in dollars.
They have a nice drinking party, screw each other until morning, and then put their suits on and get back to work.
They've been doing this for -- what is it now -- 600 years? Yeah about that.
No worries. So long as the grape harvest goes off well and the silks arrive from China, these sage a$$ fuckers can't lose.
Nobody -- I mean nobody -- expects monsters.
Word.
Does anyone really believe Olli Rehn or the snakeoil salesmen?
Good Golly Mr. Olli!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
I made long term EUR/USD prediction (2011-2017) to see if there is some support t her for ideas to understand better the default/devaluation ( Europe) debt deflation/default ( USA) sequence I have been looking at lately.
Here it is with explanations:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=34394#p34394
Here just chart:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/66127#comment-66127
It does support debt deflation in the Usa during 2012-2014 recession. QE3 won't change anything, perhaps delay deflation till June 2012.
To use an English colloquialism...
Gordon Bennett...
DavidC
Algorithm.....Grandma still alive = bullish Possible coffee consumption = bullish owning a cup=bullish Grandpa still alive = bullish.
HFT action plan - boost markets 4% within 45 minutes.
This is like The Powers That Be just taking a massive dump in public. I mean these banksters and courrupt regulators are just taking a dump on the sidewalk anywhere at any time now. They don't care who can see them. The anti-taking a dump regulators are there with them taking a dump in the Mall.
In your faces USA. The banksters have shit eating grins, laughing at you.
every "headline, every "news" item, every utterance on cnbc is mapped out well in advance. the purpose is to loot and to cause maximum damage. why? because they can.
every "headline, every "news" item, every utterance on cnbc is mapped out well in advance. the purpose is to loot and to cause maximum damage. why? because they can.
If you are in Asia seeing all this shit go down in the US and Europe you will be buying gold and silver as fast as you can, knowing the whole show is going to end in some massive conflageration. Inevitable.
And thanks to the corrupt banksters precious metals are being transferred to Asia at bargain prices whilst the US bankrupts itself of even that backup. Talk about Treason.
Precious metals, and real basic human needs stuff are going to be what you want to be holding when this ship goes down.
Your correct, they will either print money and go into hyperinflation (which Germany has been trying to avoid) or allow banks and countries to take these hard losses. It's a no win situation that will end in pain. I bet they are hopeing that the US will bail them out, they can't. They are in the same position and holding alot of the toxic debt that US banks loaned out to the world. And on top of that our govt. is dysfunctional to the point that 1.5 billion they where willing to let the govt. shutdown. Try to ask them to print out another 1.5 trillion to save or stay off the inevitable and they will explode along with the populace, and in an election year no less. The end game is coming and it will domino for sure.
No matter what the reason....that was one crazy ass rally...
No matter what the reason....that was one crazy ass rally...
If France were to nationalize its banks, it instantaneously becomes one of the PIIGS.
Well then, that makes it FIG PIS, SPIFIG, SPIGIF, FIGS PI, FIPIGS, FIGISP, I P FIGS or... French PIIGS
It works better if the Netherlands joins the club. They we get F'N PIIGS :)
the jew is in the market........always
ZERO,
get squeezed?
ZERO,
get squeezed?
To be a financial commentator in this sad world is like being an ambulance carrier during the great War. Hemingwayesque brancardier who carries in a new bleeding bank every day into the general hospital of socialized private debt paid by the sheeple.
A never ending fight lost by a whole generation; that got one brancardier to write his legacy to posterity : A farewell to Arms.
Not that that title was the iconic epitaph for that age, as history repeated itself. Twenty years later the same brancardier was in Spain writing : For whom the bell tolls. It tolled for European Armageddon as it did in 1914.
What whould financial trader/brancardier Hemingway write today : A farewell to Capitalism, The old man and the sea of financial decay, To have and to give not ?
One wonders how some Apaches can hear the sound of distant hoof-beats so early, while others stay deaf to history in the making.
The Greeks have agreed to full support from their Treasury.
Makes it a done deal.
So stocks rose 4% on a plan of a plan to plan a plan for a bank they hadn't heard of until this morning. Hmmm.
And did it all in just 45 minutes, too! Hmmm!
Sounds a little contrived to me. Like it was planned. Like it was concocted and executed by some billionaire somehwere or something.
Let us not be surprised if this, combined with the leap in treasury futures immeidately after the debt ceiling increase and S&P downgrade on a White House tip, makes someone into the world's wealthiest person. Watch to see who leaps higher on the next Forbes 400 list.
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