The Amazing Hockey-Stick Of Q4 Consensus Earnings

Tyler Durden's picture


There's Hope. There's Faith. And then there is Q4 Consensus Earnings Expectations...



Source: Goldman Sachs

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Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:14 | 2651109 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

Hope you can believe in.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:16 | 2651118 veyron
veyron's picture

Has GS ever addressed the "generational buy opportunity" blunder?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:27 | 2651145 Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture

"Source: Goldman Sachs"

Requiescat in pace, Muppets.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:55 | 2651226 Precious
Precious's picture

Bernanke was personally instructed on proper QE techniques by a descendent of the Roman emperor, Gluteus Maximus.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:21 | 2651291 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

If they print enough money, no one will notice.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 21:01 | 2651565 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

Why would the bernank print now?  If he waits, he can use QE4 for a REAL purpose.  To prevent bearitory from becoming reality.

If he waits, there will be another 2-5 months of jumping around a few thousand points lower.  That's 2-5 months he doesn't have to be printing.

So why would he bust his load before the fun has even begun?


I mean QE is likely not going to be used for broke cities or states.  Look at Chicago.  They don't give 2 f's about the real economy.

As long as ppl get their snap cards, and impossible to pay back liabilities like medicare/ss/unemployment checks, widespread poverty can be avoided!

States and towns going broke is like the U.S.'s version of austerity.  & as we have seen, for bankers, that is almost the name of the game.

Senor Bernank, this one is for you.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:16 | 2651117 marz929
marz929's picture


Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:39 | 2651180 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I can tell you where he isn't!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:16 | 2651119 genr8n
genr8n's picture

What are those guys smoking? It must be some good shit.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:28 | 2651149 Henry Rearden
Henry Rearden's picture

Drugs don't make lies, Liars do. 

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 01:05 | 2652119 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The suckers are going to be sooo disappointed when Ben doesn't print.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:36 | 2651176 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

good shit helps clear one's mind and allows oneself to cut through the bullshit and see the truth.  Unless they're smoking something created in a lab in which case hold on to your hats because the come down is gona suck...shit you may be right.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 21:08 | 2651592 Captain Kurtz
Captain Kurtz's picture

Wonder how many ZH'ers smoke the good shit??  I know i do.  Copious amounts.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:16 | 2651120 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

QE gonna really work this time! we promise! everyone back in the pool! 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:21 | 2651131 kennard
kennard's picture

Elect me and the next quarter will please. The last three years were his fault.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:25 | 2651139 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

Save time, just put it all on black.  You win, you retire to the beach.  You lose, you go on food stamps like the other 46 million.  Either way it's a life of leisure.



Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:25 | 2651142 JR
JR's picture

“Companies are seeing real, concrete declines in business. While companies might still be topping earnings estimates made on Wall Street, many fewer are beating sales estimates.

“What this means is that companies are showing good earnings because they are cutting back on expenses and not because they are expanding sales. And if that trend continues, it’ll mean corporations will be cutting back more on spending in the months ahead.

“But back to the stock market: it’s like a boxing match right now. If you know what you are doing, strap on a pair of gloves and let your money go a few rounds. But anyone who doesn’t know much about the fisticuffs of capital might want to grab a seat and just watch the action.

“Someday the pros might give the market back to the people. But it won’t be anytime soon.”

-- John Crudele, July 23, 2012, New York Post
Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:28 | 2651147 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

These estimates will be very quietly lowered between now and then in order to minimize the fallout.  Business as usual

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:30 | 2651152 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Tomorrow, tomorrow, the sun will shine tomorrow.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:31 | 2651158 HD
HD's picture

I read and hear CONSTANTLY that Ben has no option but to launch QE3.  While I have have little doubt the Fed will do "something" I can't imagine Ben is going to throw half a trillion to the markets just to hold the 1350 on the S&P for 6 to 12 weeks.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 21:47 | 2651709 Yellowhoard
Yellowhoard's picture

Everything collapses if he doesn't press control P.

I say he prints.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:35 | 2651171 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Below is a number series:

Materials: Q1 = (10), Q2 = (12), Q3 = (5), Q4 = +97. 

Which one doesn't belong?


Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:41 | 2651181 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

I learned this on Sesame Street, it was the late 70s so I was about 4 or 5.  These guys must have gone to really "good" expensive institutions of higher learning to unlearn all the basics that we learned by age 5 thanks to Muppets.  1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 ooo ooo whah ooo ooo, ooo ooo whah, ooo, ooo ooo whah ooo ooo

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:13 | 2651265 Racer
Racer's picture

Bankster maths:

1+1= 1000


and if they get caught out... the computer dun it yer honour

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:22 | 2651297 Row Well Number 41
Row Well Number 41's picture

Remember the funky pinball counting song.  I still hear that song in my head when I hear somebody counting.


Wed, 07/25/2012 - 20:29 | 2651489 SKY85hawk
SKY85hawk's picture

Q4 backdowns can't happen until October.

Q3 will be lower by then, too!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:37 | 2651177 Dburn
Dburn's picture

Zynga dropped 38% AH citing Facebook. Now trading at $3.15. FB down 6% AH. That may be a crowded but profitable short.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:45 | 2651195 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

That may be a crowded but profitable short.


Sounds like a Titanic passenger pointing at a lifeboat...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:38 | 2651179 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Let's see how Germany output collapse works out for earnings!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:46 | 2651202 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

BaZNGA, baby.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:47 | 2651206 JR
JR's picture

Michael Rozeff writes on today’s LRC Blog: Extraordinary Inflation and Bernanke’s Lies:

U.S. money supply (M1) has been growing at extremely high rates. This started in July 2008 when it was 1,410.5 billion. It's now 2,330.7 billion. That's a 65 percent jump in 4 years.

On November 4, 2010, Bernanke wrote:

"Although asset purchases are relatively unfamiliar as a tool of monetary policy, some concerns about this approach are overstated. Critics have, for example, worried that it will lead to excessive increases in the money supply and ultimately to significant increases in inflation.

"Our earlier use of this policy approach had little effect on the amount of currency in circulation or on other broad measures of the money supply, such as bank deposits. Nor did it result in higher inflation."

Obviously, he was lying or mistaken in the immediately preceding statement about "little effect on" money supply, since M1 was already up to 1,767.2 or by 25 percent in 2 years when he wrote as a result of his first set of asset purchases (over one trillion dollars worth)! On that day in November, he announced another $600 billion purchase, and that is what inflated the money supply from the then 1,767 to its current 2,330.7 (extremely close to it). Increases of this size in M1 are extraordinary.

Bernanke knew then and knows full well now that the FED inflates M1. We are 100% sure that he knows because he himself has said so:

"But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or today, it’s electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is the equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.”

Now in one part of his statement he qualifies the reference to money supply with the adjective "excessive." In other words, he's claiming that a 65 percent increase (or at that date a 25 percent increase) is not excessive, the reason being that it has or had little effect on consumer prices, which he calls "inflation." Now, actually, inflation is an increase in the money supply brought about by government, so that his use of the term "inflation" to mean consumer price inflation confuses the analysis, confuses the public, and confuses him too.

Bernanke claims that when he sees consumer price inflation occurring, the FED will sell off its securities, reduce M1, and head those price rises off at the pass. How can he assure this with any credibility?


 Many prices are already up sharply. This already belies his claim that he'll stop prices from rising.

For the FED to have credibility about reducing M1, the time to do it is immediately, even if by small amounts. Its notion of holding short term rates at near zero until the end of 2014 is really insane. And if the FED goes into QE3, it's going to reduce its credibility and spur the movement of M1 into real assets. It will cause the price rises it wishes to avoid. It has already fueled these price rises with the massive increase in M1. The Bernanke FED, by increasing M1 so dramatically, has created a situation from which it cannot extricate itself or the U.S. economy except by going against expectations now and reversing course.


Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:09 | 2651254 poor fella
poor fella's picture

I don't know about all that, but when I put a 22oz Sierra Nevada IPA on the counter, hand the guy a five spot, and get back 3 coins, SOMETHING is fucking wrong..  Not to mention the days of $3.99 6-packs of Orangebooms and Petersburgs aT Traders are LOOONG gone.   FUCK YOU BERNANKE!!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:32 | 2651328 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

poor fella

this may hurt but it was Jimmah Cartah who removed the laws against homebrewing.

With a little carbohydrate some yeast and a few bitter hops one can easily make t brew superior to any you list.

I think he did this for his brother Billah while he was trying to forget about the hostages held by Iran as they set out to prove the peaceful and just nature of their shiney new revolution....come to think of it we never really did say thanks to them...properly...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:55 | 2651396 ersatzteil
ersatzteil's picture

Yea, unfortunately the Iranians were none too happy about the US-planned-and-executed overthrow of their democratically-elected government in 1953, staged by the CIA from the American embassy in Tehran. Their demands were impossible to meet: an apology from the US for overthrowing their government, unfreezing Iran's assets in America and a promise to not interfere in Iran again. What a pair on them!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:51 | 2651215 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

The World in turmoil, Pain in Spain, bailouts need bigger buckets, Banks are trusted, Japan bleeding, China choking, The Brits in a pickle, Syria burning, The drought is lingering, Housing is comatose, The Election for the POTUS is a joke, QE has become a childs first speaking word, SNAP is Popular for 46,000,000 million, Disabilities are a pandemic Flu...... Can't you see its all Priced in.

Just believe OK ..... I believe I'll do a John Lennon.

Just sit here watching the wheels go Round and Round 


Wed, 07/25/2012 - 21:36 | 2651673 FrankTrades
FrankTrades's picture

Re-elect Barry Barak Hussein Unqualified O'Bama and see what happens...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:00 | 2651230 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

same group recommended Zynga as "outperform."

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:03 | 2651241 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

This is the Bearest thing I've ever seen for the market as a whole. Believe me...ive seen alot I frankly would be more bearish about, but goldman going long.....Jumpin on the short bus ....for genuises.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:11 | 2651261 Darkness
Darkness's picture

Explain what this means!!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:14 | 2651270 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

You didn't analyze that, somebody else analyzed that.


Doesn't matter anyway, as long as they change it a couple weeks before earning we can get another quarter of 87%+ beating estimates.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:26 | 2651309 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

I have limitless faith in America's ability to create optimistic predictions with Amirican ideas and American labor. No other country on Earth can produce optimism and optimistic scenario like the American financial market. Others have tried but they have failed to surpass due to rigid models tied to antiquated concepts of 'realism' and 'actual numbers' and 'measurements'. Our national skill set has liberated our estimates of future activity in a dynamic and uniquely American way. It is estimated that this ability will only increase with time.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 21:11 | 2651602 lucidwanderer
lucidwanderer's picture

I like your comment and agree that if anyone can pull their collective ass out of a crack Americans can....but at a price. 

To create America and endow us with the freedoms we have long enjoyed, our founders paid an extremely bitter price.  Most of the founders lost their fortunes, many their lives and some the lives of their families.  The tangled web of deceipt that surrounds us now make for a far greater challenge and the price will be much higher.  If you think America and the world will come prancing out of this situation without grave consequences I'm betting everything that you're wrong.  Cheers & best wishes.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:35 | 2651334 Rich Bagg
Rich Bagg's picture

Whole Foods up 10% after hours.  That's the equivalent of gold skyrocketing $160 per ounce.  Yet ZH touts gold's 1% move and is quiet about Whole Foods.  LOL



Wed, 07/25/2012 - 20:07 | 2651429 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture


it is kinda complicated but it has something to do with how gold and Whole Foods (let us use Siemens for this excercise) did when things got prickly back in '21 and bout '28 and '45  in the Weimar and then again in Zimbabwe in '08. I'm sure a company like Whole Foods will do just fine as we 'grow our way out of this recession'. On the slim chance that the massive increase in the mullah supply has an adverse effect on the economy however gold might have a slight advantage. This will be particularly true if the value of paper slips a bit...but that cannot happen...right...?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 20:13 | 2651448 Rich Bagg
Rich Bagg's picture

People need food more than gold.  Want an organic apple?  Bend over and pay $3.99 per lb. or whatever Whole Foods decides to charge you.  They have you by the nads.  Sorry Bro.



Wed, 07/25/2012 - 20:42 | 2651530 JR
JR's picture

Right. "Whole Foods – Does not use pink slime" et al. pushed the rush to organic.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 20:13 | 2651445 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Food stamps are growing as fast as you can say snap. Add in food inflation which any good accountant can mask as growth and wala WFMI is up 10%. who's your daddy?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:36 | 2651338 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Primary wave 3 down may change things up a little.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 20:20 | 2651461 RacerX
RacerX's picture

Hey, there's a light up ahead in the tunnel! We'll be safe soon!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 20:35 | 2651509 Father Lucifer
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