America Will Have Negative Unemployment In January 2022

Tyler Durden's picture

Much has been said about the recent shifts in the US labor force: the decline in the unemployed, the flatlining number of those actually employed, but most importantly the soaring number of those who have left the labor force for good, which is where most of those who are "unemployed" end up, instead of back in the gainfully employed labor pool. We have made it all too clear why this transition is happening, which as even Goldman Sachs today agreed, is not due to the retirement of baby boomers, but due to more and more Americans finding welfare in the country's various other shadow job replacement programs such as Food Stamps and Disability Payments, and dropping out of the labor force entirely. We won't debate that here: we will merely note that the rotation out of the labor force has now become secular, and is the primary reason for the "drop" in the unemployment rate, which has declined consistently since the 10% in October 2009, during which time those employed, have risen by 3.5 million, while those not in the labor force by a massive 5.7 million. No, here we don't care about the past. Instead, we will forecast the future. And the future is so bright, whoever is president in January 2012 has go to wear shades.

Because taking current trends across all employment indicators, using 12 Month trailing averages in the changes of those employed, unemployed and dropping out the labor force, we can predict, with IMF-level precision, that at the current surge of those leaving the labor force, the US unemployment rate will hit 0.0% in December of 2021 and finally go negative, or -0.1% in January 2022. So there you have it: maybe the BLS can just fast forward us to the end of this thought experiment when everyone will be so fat they couldn't look for a job if they wanted to (recall by 2020 75% of Americans will be obese), but at least the Propaganda Times will be blasting in 24/7 red flashing headlines that, for the first time ever, America's unemployed are now somehow negative, and we can all rejoice while collecting all those welfare stamps bought on negative interest credit funded directly from the uber politburo of the USSA located in the Marriner Eccles building.

Behold America's glorious future: