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America Will Have Negative Unemployment In January 2022

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Much has been said about the recent shifts in the US labor force: the decline in the unemployed, the flatlining number of those actually employed, but most importantly the soaring number of those who have left the labor force for good, which is where most of those who are "unemployed" end up, instead of back in the gainfully employed labor pool. We have made it all too clear why this transition is happening, which as even Goldman Sachs today agreed, is not due to the retirement of baby boomers, but due to more and more Americans finding welfare in the country's various other shadow job replacement programs such as Food Stamps and Disability Payments, and dropping out of the labor force entirely. We won't debate that here: we will merely note that the rotation out of the labor force has now become secular, and is the primary reason for the "drop" in the unemployment rate, which has declined consistently since the 10% in October 2009, during which time those employed, have risen by 3.5 million, while those not in the labor force by a massive 5.7 million. No, here we don't care about the past. Instead, we will forecast the future. And the future is so bright, whoever is president in January 2012 has go to wear shades.

Because taking current trends across all employment indicators, using 12 Month trailing averages in the changes of those employed, unemployed and dropping out the labor force, we can predict, with IMF-level precision, that at the current surge of those leaving the labor force, the US unemployment rate will hit 0.0% in December of 2021 and finally go negative, or -0.1% in January 2022. So there you have it: maybe the BLS can just fast forward us to the end of this thought experiment when everyone will be so fat they couldn't look for a job if they wanted to (recall by 2020 75% of Americans will be obese), but at least the Propaganda Times will be blasting in 24/7 red flashing headlines that, for the first time ever, America's unemployed are now somehow negative, and we can all rejoice while collecting all those welfare stamps bought on negative interest credit funded directly from the uber politburo of the USSA located in the Marriner Eccles building.

Behold America's glorious future:

 

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Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:50 | 2407905 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

I look forward to my time off

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:55 | 2407927 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

This is good, right?

 

America might not even exist in 2022.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:10 | 2407986 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Yes Good.  Central planners everywhere understand this.  The question is what negative interest rate is required to generate the correct level of negative unemployment that will ensure permanent economic stability and perpetuation of the status quo.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:11 | 2408003 EnglishMajor
EnglishMajor's picture

Obomney 2012, bitchez!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:11 | 2408005 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

You have a very negative attitude.

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:13 | 2408006 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Will Obama pay my gas & mortgage in 2022?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:16 | 2408018 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Well yes...kinda. You'll be given a government issued cot in a FEMA center and a bicycle.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:41 | 2408104 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

The bicycle wheels will be just rims, no rubber - and the seat will be made from...human skin.  You want one with tattoos? That's extra. 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 23:13 | 2408954 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Where is Charlton Heston when we need him.

Somebody yell to the carny pulling the throttle that I'd like to get off this ride now please k thx.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:16 | 2408020 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

A negative times a negative is a positive.

Therefore, (-1)negative * (-1)Unemployment 

=negative Unemployment 

= positive employment?

Winning the future!

 

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:29 | 2408075 Joeman34
Joeman34's picture

I'm generally a fan of satire, but this post is retarded...

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:38 | 2408093 centerline
centerline's picture

Welcome to the new normal.  A firm crack to the head with a 2x4 is probably what most of us need in order fit in these days.  Or rampant brain cell carnage via the chemical of your choice.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 21:44 | 2408751 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Negative interest rates, Negative unemployment

Fuckin' positive!

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 07:15 | 2409398 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

It means that IQ is trending the same way as unemployment. Bullish.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:41 | 2408100 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

America doesn't exist TODAY.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 18:04 | 2408352 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Depends on who and how you ask.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 20:29 | 2408622 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

America has sadly become a hollowed out structure where the facade is propped up by the military and the printing press. My fear is that if this continues for long enough, people with skills and memories of better times might not be around to give rebirth to the nation.

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 07:06 | 2409389 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

America is first and foremost an idea and it still exists, just geographically shifted outside of the United States borders. Current system is a shell with different substance.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:12 | 2408004 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

Our children are so blessed.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:50 | 2408129 Agent P
Agent P's picture

I remember the first time I was blessed, I was 16 years old.  It was great.  I blessed a lot after that, often multiple times a day.  Fast forward many years and now I'm married, so unfortunately I rarely get blessed anymore.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:55 | 2407931 illyia
illyia's picture

I wonder how many of our "power elites" read this site...

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:56 | 2407933 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

WE, are the power elite!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:12 | 2408009 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Power elites don't read.  They hire muppets to do that.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:56 | 2407934 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Can't we just take all those obese people and give them jobs as taste testers? Seems like a win-win.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:00 | 2407951 t_kAyk
t_kAyk's picture

It's all pink(slime) in the middle... 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:45 | 2408116 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

soylent green

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:01 | 2407935 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

"IMF-level precision" ...lol

IS the what DSK used in NY?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:58 | 2407943 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Both of my clones are worried about the retirement age getting raised.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 15:59 | 2407946 semperfi
semperfi's picture

Funded also by Buffet (Warren, not Jimmy, just in case there was confusion).  I'm all for that - if Warren wants to raise his own taxes to pay for this stuff, I'm all over that - he can then pay for my stuff - in fact Warren, you don't need to wait for the Feds to change the tax law, you can just send me a check directly right now and cut out the middle-man. 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:10 | 2407990 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Dear Uncle Warren,

 

The financial crisis has hit me quite hard. I am now nearly broke and I hoped you may be able to help out. I am not uncivilized and haven't bought any gold(wink.wink). I think a small check for somewhere's around $5 miliion would do the trick. I promise to stop collecting disability(wink.wink) and other government programs if you can lend a brother a helping hand.

Sincerely,

your friend and admirer(wink.wink)

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:21 | 2408046 semperfi
semperfi's picture

I can see Warren and one of his kids have voted. 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:01 | 2407950 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Bullish.

BTFD.

Oh, and Silver, Bitchez.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:04 | 2407961 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

The truth should always be bullish.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:00 | 2407952 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

If everyone is obese then everyone can get on disability. Problem solved.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:03 | 2407955 The Fonz...befo...
The Fonz...before shark jump's picture

Dystopia bitchez

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:03 | 2407958 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

America!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:03 | 2407959 world_debt_slave
Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:03 | 2407962 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

What exactly do these unemployed people do all day?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:04 | 2407966 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

play games on their Ipads

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:04 | 2407968 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

suck

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:08 | 2407977 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Stalk people on Facebook...

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:10 | 2407994 economessed
economessed's picture

Post video clips of their cats?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:14 | 2408014 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Get drunk & collect scalps...

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:16 | 2408028 semperfi
semperfi's picture

fund raise for democrats

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 07:22 | 2409406 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

All of the above.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:04 | 2407963 Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

1. Collect food stamps

2. Get fat and go on disability

3. Profit!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:04 | 2407964 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Can we just call them the "NUMS" Non-Unemployed Muppets?  We're getting lots of NUMBs here in Southern California.  They live under bridges, on benches, in bushes, palm thickets, and in old vans parked along the roads.  Obama's policies are guaranteed to make you NUMB!

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:06 | 2407974 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

NUMB`nutts

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:05 | 2407969 adr
adr's picture

Well when somewhere around 30 million people can actually produce everything a few billion people need, you might just have a problem.

Coming very soon just about the only winning play will be to go long on granite.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:08 | 2407976 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Wobots, lots and lots of wobots.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:08 | 2407978 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Actually we already do...we have to pay to work..

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:08 | 2407985 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

EBT BITCHEZ!!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:12 | 2408000 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Who needs an economy? We have PRINTED prosperity now!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:12 | 2408007 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

These fuckers are so desperate for "good news", that I heard a report on NPR that said the number of "job postings" is at a "4 year high".

WTF does that even mean?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:15 | 2408021 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

the number of help wanted ads?

...nah...you're correct.. WTF does it mean?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:37 | 2408036 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

It means that scammers have smelled blood in the water.

Beware of bogus job postings and those soliciting opportunities to help you find employment!  They could be scams.

Don't trust any nigerian online Universities!

They are fakes!  They will take your money and leave you jobless!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:42 | 2408107 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

I get these scammers calling me constantly. They have "leads" for jobs for my business. I usually say, "fine, give me the lead, I'll make a bid, and if I get the job, I'll give you 15 or 20% of the contract."

They say, "well, that's not the way it works. You need to subscribe, blah, blah, blah.

I say, "that's the way it's always worked for me. Bye bye, lard ass" 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:21 | 2408042 semperfi
semperfi's picture

FF, why are you listening to NPR?  I'm worried about you. 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:38 | 2408091 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Know thine enemy

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 18:21 | 2408392 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

NPR wants Obummer re-elected to increase their funding (PBS).

Job postings for part-time $7.50 an hour zero benefit jobs are at an all time high because people with full-time are getting fired, or other part-timers are rotating out of hamburger flipping to go back on unemployment after an 8-month Winter stint so they can catch up on playing XBOX and Facebook on their iPads.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:14 | 2408010 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

TFTW?

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:17 | 2408025 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

From an earlier post but on point.

Here is the issue....Nobody is paying for the lifetime expenditure of the
average American.

And by average i mean the bottom 80%.

You could print $360B and give every unemployed person $30K....What accounts
for the other $1.2T in the deficit?

And the $1.2T is not an offset for deleveraging. Because the only
deleveraging that has gone on is really defaulted debt, which does not affect
the cash flow of the consumer. Household liabilites have actually increased 2.5%
since 2006.What is the money being spent on.....since 2007 government social benefits
have increased by $633B...No personal tax hikes, No increase in social security
payments to pay for this. Corporate tax reciepts are at the lowest level in 40
years.

The deficit IS STRUCTURAL. Because nobody is paying for the lifetime
expediture of the average American. This is manifesting itself at the student
loan level and continues on to the average american having $56k set aside for
retirement.

BTW, the government spending isn't going to consumer savings....it is going
right on corporate balance sheets.

So, the powers that be are looking for a soft landing in the living standards
of bottom 80%, while praying the US doesn't become a banana republic on the
way.

At least the POTUS running in 2024, won't have to be worried about unemployment rate.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:31 | 2408080 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Well I'm just hoping that psychiatric help will still only be 5 cents...

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 18:06 | 2408358 dataanalytics
dataanalytics's picture

Brilliant! A Peanuts reference! Five cents please...

the Doctor....is REALLY in, get it?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:40 | 2408102 centerline
centerline's picture

From where I sit, all I see is bananas.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:18 | 2408031 JR
JR's picture

This the past decade tuitions and fees have increased by 72% when accounting for inflation, according to Business Insider. Paul Craig Roberts had this to say regarding the unemployment dilemma May 6 in American's Fed Disinformation On Every Front:

Americans are told that education is the answer to unemployment. Get that university degree and live happily every after.

As RT recently reported, the truth is that more than half of recent US university graduates are unemployed or very underemployed. So much for the mantra that “education is the answer.”

“Education is the answer” serves the colleges and universities who want the tuition payments. It serves the companies who make student loans. It helps the offshoring corporations disguise that they are the main cause of unemployment.

Education is not the answer when high value-added, high wage manufacturing and professional service jobs, such as software engineering, are moved offshore in order to enhance short-term profits for shareholders and multi-million dollar bonuses for CEOs, while domestic employment and purchasing power are destroyed. Unless American university graduates can emigrate to China and India, there is no one to employ them. Yet, we still hear the call to run up student loan debts beyond the ability of salaries to repay the loans.

Professional tradable service employment in the US is so scarce that the University of Florida has abolished its computer science department. As few of the graduates can find employment, the university has reallocated the department’s budget to football, a paying sport.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34518.html

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 20:46 | 2408639 pavman
pavman's picture

A [un-edumacated] friend of mine likes to say today's bachelor degree is like yesterday's union card... you need to have one to play the game.  Seems alot more expensive than those union cards tho!

The irony is he's a developer who took like 3 classes 15 years ago.  Everything else is self-taught/OTJL.  His investment surely paid off for him.

The real problem is...in this economy...no one wants to pay for inexperienced, spoiled brats who  think the world owes them a livin' [read liberal arts majors].  I checked the other day, looks like engineering, particularly petroleum engineering degrees, still pay buku bux right out of college at around 92K median salary.

ECE was #2.  I've also heard engineering degrees have been floating up in just out of school salaries; of course, it doesn't change the fact that no one wants to work with a moron.  I think that's the biggest problem w/ employment these days...too many morons running the show.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:26 | 2408067 sof_hannibal
sof_hannibal's picture

Vive la democracy bitches

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:33 | 2408085 Bluntly Put
Bluntly Put's picture

Hey, look on the bright side when everyone is unemployed there will be no unemployment since that term only exists in the context of number of employed.

Or something like that.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:40 | 2408096 Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

This November please remember to write in Pink Slime on your ballot.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:44 | 2408111 penexpers
penexpers's picture

When the unemployment rate hits 0.1% we will be officially living in a dystopian world envisioned by the likes of Huxley, Orwell and Dick.

If I'm not in a FEMA camp I'll be shooting myself.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:50 | 2408127 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

You could at least take some baddies with you.  Otherwise you're just selfish.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 19:06 | 2408488 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

You won't be able to shoot yourself, guns will be illegal by then.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:51 | 2408128 mrdenis
mrdenis's picture

NO...NO.. the real unemployment rate will fall to zero by Nov3 ,Obama's men  will just stop counting the unemployed 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 16:51 | 2408131 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If society becomes, as anticipated, wealthy enough to support everyone on one or two workers why let the banksters steal all the excess wealth. Lets go back to college, dance, sing, play music, take LSD and have orgies in the park.

Fk the banksters.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 23:10 | 2408945 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Sounds like a plan...

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 17:00 | 2408157 Walt D.
Walt D.'s picture

According to Keynesian Economics, U3 unemployment is not unemployment - these people are receiving money from the government just like any other government employee. They are not required to do anything useful. Keynes said one group could dig ditches one day and the next day another group would fill them in. You can image the unemployed as digging and filling in virtual holes in the ground. Nancy Pelosi even suggests that paying people extended unemployment benefits promotes economic growth (as does giving them food stamps).

The Obama Administation has been slow to "define away" the unemployment problem.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 17:25 | 2408225 francis_sawyer
Tue, 05/08/2012 - 23:06 | 2408934 indio007
indio007's picture

There are good arguments that no gov't employees do anything useful.

Does it really matter the what why when how of their animations that are allegedly linked to the general welfare. (they got the welfare right.)

 

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 17:46 | 2408277 AchtungAffen
AchtungAffen's picture

I love how financial dicks hate the welfare net. But they fail to consider that without it, they (those same financial dicks) would be burning at the stake by hungry people with pitchforks.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 17:55 | 2408323 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

BLASPHEMY

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 18:17 | 2408390 midtowng
midtowng's picture

It's the next logical step. It shows a triumph of modern economics. [/snark]

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 18:43 | 2408447 I am on to you
I am on to you's picture

Yabadadooooooo.

Ill be 69,i think ill ask for e green card,there must be a chance for a Danish bricklayer in the land of the free and fooled,just kid,n Americanos,ill stay long away,south of you,here where Charlie Waterfall=(Carlinhos Cachoeria,the king of illigal gambling,and looks like the KingPin of the goverment here to,might be what Hillary ment,when she told Dilma,you are an example to the rest of the world fighting corruption,what a you know,even Lula ganhou um cogumelo,meening he won a magic mushroom,in a university) roams.

Obamas new change in Paradigme,from yes we will not change to Forwarding the future,is thrilling,love the funny game!

Wed, 05/09/2012 - 01:09 | 2409133 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Artificial Intelligence or Authentic Idiocy?

(or bad translation?)

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 19:04 | 2408480 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

While the Obamabots are reading this kind of garbage :

Unemployment Rate Without Government Cuts: 7.1%

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/05/08/unemployment-rate-without-gove...

LOL!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 19:50 | 2408567 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

I cannot grasps this -ive unemployment concept. Does it mean I stay home and factory owner will come to me and give me my pay-check?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 22:27 | 2408816 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

My thoughts:

1) Does this mean we will be rehypothicating jobs to get a negative unemployment rate?

2) Is this negative number seasonally adjusted?  Might be even more negative if we have an unseasonally warm winter of 2021.

3) Will someone stash a few gallons of gas for me along the road?  Because in 2022 I will probably be driving across the desert going 150mph looking for food and gas ala Mad Max, and none of us will give two shits about the US government that collapsed 10 years ago...,

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 23:16 | 2408974 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

The chart was hilariously brilliant! 

ZH is the best antidote I know for the insanity of today's talkin' head 'economists' and what passes for the 'news' - as in 'all the news that's safe to print'.

 

Thanks!

Sun, 05/13/2012 - 23:27 | 2422671 qiongqiong
qiongqiong's picture

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