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And Back To Euro-Math: Up To €210 Billion Funding Shortfall For Spanish, Italian Banks In 2012

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While events over the weekend have had a dramatic impact on the political landscape of Europe, that's just what they are: political events. Yet for all the rhetoric, promises, and bluster, only one thing matters in the end: cold, hard math. The same math which last weekend indicated that Europe is still facing trillions and trillions in bank deleveraging. That has not changed one cents between then and now, regardless who is the puppet (muppet?) head of this country or that. But since that won't become evident for at least a few more years, it can be safely forgotten, until the time comes to recall it that is, at which point there will be a full blown crisis even though there were years of advance warning to prepare for the crunch. So here is some more math: in a downside case forecast looking at funding capacity of Spanish and Italian banks - the same banks that would have been long insolvent had it not been for a $1.3 trillion injection by the ECB - Deutsche Bank predicts that the two groups may have as vast a funding shortfall as €210 billion in 2012 (€114.4 billion in Spain, €96.1 billion in Italy). Which to DB means one thing of course: more LTROs coming because once the market has habituated to the now periodic infusion of monetary heroin it will not let go until it is convulsing in its death rattle, something the status quo will never allow, or until it gets just one more hit.

The math from DB:

We present in Figure 14 an illustrative scenario for the funding capacity of banks in 2012 in Italy and Spain. We consider there, as we are looking into a “worst case scenario”, that bank debt issuance stops entirely... In the base case, non-residents simply stop rolling their exposure to the ailing sovereigns as bonds are redeemed. In a adverse scenario, they maintain an aggressive pace of outright selling, replicating the pattern of 1Q 2012. We assume that domestic banks “take the slack”.

 

The “adjustment valve” in this configuration is lending to the non financial sector. In the Spanish case, the “shortfall” between the cash position as of the end of March and the various explicit or implicit commitments, at EUR 36.3bn, would actually allow for a slightly lesser pace of deleveraging in the private sector than in Q1. Note that in Spain, the “credit impulse”, which measures  the yoy change in net flows of loans to the non financial private sector, is already almost neutral. In the adverse scenario, Spanish banks would have to nearly double the pace at which they cut lending to households and businesses in 1Q 2012. In the Italian case, the current pace of deleveraging would not be fast enough, in our estimate, to cover the various commitments, even in the baseline scenario where non-residents simply stop rolling over.

The agenda to Europe's biggest bank is obvious - scapegoat others, even if with real numbers, to reap the benefits of another reliquification:

This supply/demand approach to the relationship between the banks, the sovereigns and the private sector, explain why we think that, if debt issuance by banks entirely close down, another round of LTROs should be contemplated by the ECB.

The caveat:

Naturally, it is wrong to consider that, short of additional LTROs, banks cannot access central bank liquidity since they can still use the MROs. However, a massive use of these short-term sources of liquidity would probably create an additional duration mismatch on the banks’ balance sheet, not necessarily conducive to significant credit origination.

 

What would be the efficiency of such a move? A clear limit of this view is that more liquidity injection by the central bank helps the supply of credit, when the latest BLS suggested that demand was actually very depressed, which means that the central bank would, again, be “pushing on a string”.

So the Spanish and Italian strawman is now set: if no LTRO 3, then pain comes back, forcing the appropriate political parties even deeper into a corner.

More importantly, the injection of yet another several hundred billions in "sterilized" liquidity allows the status quo to preserve its ever more tenuous grasp of power for a few more months. Then it will be the Fed's turn, and so on, and so on, until the final additional electronic USD/EUR/JPY has no incremental benefit at all.

 

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Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:38 | 2402951 resurger
resurger's picture

Monday: Party

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:46 | 2402957 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Euro-math hurts my brain....give me some aspirin and I'll head back to the party.

 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:58 | 2403005 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Maybe with the new elections in Greece and France, the German Govt will finally wake up and realize that they have to stop this train before they go over a cliff. Merkel might finally wake up and listen to the Bundesbank, or else she will join Sarkozy and the rest....

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:39 | 2402959 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

There is not enough money on Mars to fix this

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:41 | 2402968 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Not enough money on Earth either.....just stating the obvious.

 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 10:02 | 2403174 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

The marginal utility of money always declines, unless it's yours

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 10:52 | 2403310 Bluntly Put
Bluntly Put's picture

Ah see here's the rub. There is an increasingly declining group of individuals for whom that value exists, as the lump sum of what you consider "yours" is constantly being derived by endless interference from central planning. In a sea of value relativity, what is real value?

Obviously real value is more or less positional that is an individual's position closest to the monetary spigot as value only exists in temporal form (that temporal form is devalued increasingly faster and faster) as new credit is injected and has its greatest value in the instant it is created and decreases exponentially with time.

Does gold or silver have "value"? Not historical value as its value in the "system" is the most convoluted and compromised by central planning shenanigans. As gold creeps closer to permanent backwardation its historical value in the economic system approaches zero (gold must be in use to be of value).

Most likely real value lies in choice farmland or livestock as that can feed you and your family, assuming the planners ignore the ability or value in such production until absolute zero is achieved.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 02:57 | 2444624 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

Good analogy with the positional concept. Drinking upstream from the herd, as James Dines would say.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:54 | 2402999 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

Since there isn't any money at all on Mars, this is s a true statement.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 09:04 | 2403020 tim73
tim73's picture

How do you know, nobody has audited the golden reserves of Mars...since 1500!

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 09:52 | 2403150 trilliontroll
trilliontroll's picture

100 Triillion reichsmark printed in february 1924 was the highest valued ever german banknote.

link:

http://de.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Datei:100-Billionen-Geldschein...

Lets transfer this to €uros and with a few thousand of them you could plaster over any existing debt and create a miraculous boom.

 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:40 | 2402961 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Ben's swap window is now open.  Bend over Amerika!

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 09:43 | 2403123 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

but but NPR/CNN/MSNBC told me that the TARP program made money for the taxpayer, so this is great! just imagine how much dough we will all be rolling in.  I cant wait til they make so much bailing out the banks that they will reduce taxes for you and me!

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:40 | 2402964 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

And all of the mainstream pundits and politicians will say, "No one could have seen it coming...."

And the sheeple will agree.

And the people profiting from clear vision will be vilified.

And so it is written.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 09:14 | 2403048 Rubicon
Rubicon's picture

Blessed are the Cheesemakers!

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:42 | 2402970 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

cold, hard math.

 

At least they are on the metric system, as so many Euro's have pointed out to me for all these years.  Should make balancing the budget "easier", right?

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:42 | 2402972 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Didn't Paulson short German Bonds a few weeks ago? I wonder how that is workin out.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:43 | 2402973 tim73
tim73's picture

Which is about...about mere two and half weeks worth of Uncle Sam's Spending Sailor Special Auctions. US T-bonds FTW!

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:45 | 2402978 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

this is lookin good

..the comedic farce of bankers and politicians continues... simply can't wait for Davos 2012, all attendees will be bankrupts, some many times over

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:46 | 2402983 tim73
tim73's picture

US Federal tax revenues: 2200 billion dollars, expenses: 3800 billion dollars. So what is that called then? Weird Anglo-Math?

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:52 | 2402992 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

It's the same as it ever was. And the bankers/financial sector have their political puppets say  "Our math may be bad, but theirs is worse, really, look over there, not here (we haven't finish stealing everything yet)."

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:53 | 2402996 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

There are measures scheduled for 1 January that will reduce that shortfall.

And so those measures will not be allowed.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:56 | 2403000 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Perfect distraction from what is happening at home!

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:55 | 2403002 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Personally ... I'm anticipating this one hurting.  Those designated as collateral damage might not be particular fond of the pickers of winners and losers.

Neither a Republican nor Democrat be.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 09:04 | 2403022 sumo
sumo's picture

No problem, Modern Monetary Theory will save us. Ben Bernanke has this technology, see. It's called a printing press

and what you do is ...

People still have clothes and shoes. Women still eat enough to have periods. Gold is still

held in private hands. We ain't seen nothing yet. This party has yet to start.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 10:05 | 2403182 trilliontroll
trilliontroll's picture

Just like in the first time ever in history :

 

John Law and the Mississippi Bubble

(cartoon animation)

http://www.nfb.ca/film/john_law_and_the_mississippi_bubble

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