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And Now: France
French Bund spreads have just crossed 147 bps as the "cash bond long yet unable to hedge with CDS" crowd realizes that the Italian contagion is about to hit Paris. And unable to hedge using creative modern financial instruments, said crowd has reverted to the good old fashioned version thereof. We call it selling. Expect the spread to hit 150 bps momentarily.
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Let's invite Spain to the Bund blowout party too!
This Italien resignation smelled funny from the start: "Bad news is we've hit an iceberg and will sink in an hour. Good news is Capt. Smith has resigned." Oh good - markets can breathe easy
Lagarde says when the icebergs appear what you need is a Titanic ship.
The fractional reserve banking created financial structure had a farm, P-I-I-G-S (+France+UK)
And on this farm there were some filthy debt whores, P-I-I-G-S (+France+UK)
With an oink oink here, and an oink oink there, P-I-I-G-S (+France+UK)
And lots of banks (private and central banks) are going to get trichinosis, P-I-I-G-S (+France+UK)
With a massive cut here, and a slashing blow there, P-I-I-G-S (+France+UK)
Let's all hope that the real pigs on Wall Street, the FRBNY, the Bank of England & in the ECB and in all Kleptocratic centers of 'finance' bleed out and die a slow, painful, miserable death -
- P-I-I-G-S (+France+UK+US).
Along the same lines:
HT to Tyler. "We call it selling". Rare to meet an even larger smartass than myself. Congrats.
get off
my iceberg....
I love the smell of contagion in the morning
It only smells like victory if:
They'll bring out the dead on the weekend, after markets close.
No surprises here:Wednesday, 03 August 2011
France, As Most Susceptble To Contagion, Will See Its Banks Suffer
I have always been of the contention that
the 2008 market crash was cut short by the global machinations of a
cadre of central bankers intent on somehow rewriting the rules of
economics, investment physics and global finance. They became the buyers
of last resort, then consequently the buyers of only resort while at
the same time flooding the world with liquidity and guarantees. These
central bankers and the countries they allegedly strive to serve took on
the debt and nigh worthless assets of the private sector who threw
prudence through the window during the “Peak” phase of the circle of
economic life, and engaged in rampant speculation. Click to enlarge to
print quality…
BustedBlogGoesBoom contagion spreading.....
I wont be surprised when the FED will bust
I'm looking for the monetary manipulation that enables the economy and markets to totally dislocate in the first place, allowing for the amplitude of the ordinary, very tepid business cycle to grow far more distended since the price of money indicator (the interest rate) is rendered useless.
Why not just go with the cycle that every Austrian economist since before Mises has been refining into a very coherent explanation for what keeps happening, and moreover, why each of these cycles is far less healthy that the one before it? You can overlay your cycle on it, but without their model, your model is anchored only to the intervention intended to "fix" the correction that is set in motion already, inevitably, by their initial interventions ahead of the original boom.
it's butters!!! that's me *wink*
Reggie
you so fine you blow my mind
Reggie
Reggie
if i had 2 walrus
i'd give you one ..
don't central banks themselves create the boom bust cycles by encouraging malinvestments with manipulated interest rates? sans central banks the economic cycles of expansions and contractions would be much milder right? or am i missing something...
you know, looks like we really are on track for a very freaky 11.11.11
Bunda bunda party!
Allow me to correct you: "And Now: Farce"
this is no farce. and if the President isn't demanding all the cables from the American Ambassador to Germany to have them analyzed to make sure the State Department didn't just start World War III he is...well, "remaining uninformed" on this issue.
We have more important things to do, like implementing a Christmas tree tax.
Indeed. And THANK GOD we now have, by executive order, a department of Christmas Tree Industry Help.
Has a Christmas tree czar(tsar) been named yet?
Of course.. And just in time.. Eachh Xmas tree will need to be checked for crazy brown people hiding in them that hate your freedoms. They haven't decided whether to tax us for the new service or just throw it on the card..
Speaking of which - how about a little equal opportunity? Where's the tax on yarmulkes, or Ramadan bath salts?
"a department of Christmas Tree Industry Help."
A lot of Muslim(s) in the WH would probably feel better if it was known as a Holiday Tree.
So would a lot of Jews.
"So would a lot of Jews."
In the WH? I think you'll find far more members of Knights of Columbus there.
Anyway, we would be just as happy letting y'all celebrate whatever you want - as long as you maintain the holiday tradition of overextending your credit limits.
Isn't a flat christmas tree tax "regressive"? How did that ever fly? Doesn't sound...fair....
I wonder if they're really after all those folks with tree-farm tax write offs. That's a nice little gig.
And now: FRAA-NCE.
Taking forever isn't it?
And Now : FRANICE
And now: FranCCC-e.
fixed it.
Let them eat Bund Cake!!
OMG. Now it's getting biblical: raining Frogs.
>everything is literally falling apart yet european markets are 9 percent above the levels they were at on september 22nd
is reality just that bad that markets can't accept it.
This should make you happy a great chance to short the market at these levels. Added to my short today with a stop out in the low 1300 spx great risk reward at these levels.
I've been all in on TVIX for 2 weeks now. just twiddling my thumbs and waiting.
TVIX shoots up faster than TZA, DPK, and even FAZ during recent market turbulence ( for obvious reasons). of course it also goes down at rates that make you sick to your stomach during rallies.
luckily I've always known time is on my side on this one.
is reality just that bad that markets can't accept it.
Not quite; it is so bad that the status quo cannot allow it to become reality, because that is the end of the status quo. If everyone in a position of power continues to act like they still have power, do they? If everyone continues to act like the economy still works, does it?
This is why I just want to get on with it. There is no path forward until economic reality has its day.
Apres moi, le Deluge. See?
plan b
"everything is literally falling apart yet european markets are 9 percent above the levels they were at on september 22nd
is reality just that bad that markets can't accept it."
Markets discount the future (or they are supposed to). They are predicting that ECB comes in and federalizes - buys bonds directly as primary buyer of all Eurozone debt. That is their only option (other than break-up). And it will buy some months or years of stability if they do. Market is at fulcrum of dumping 30-40% if europe unravels or rallying 15% if ECB pulls a FED or Japan.
Market is at fulcrum of dumping 30-40% if europe unravels or rallying 15% if ECB pulls a FED or Japan.
Everbody buying into the rallies thinking this, thinking they're pretty clever. Maybe so, but I'd posit that the most logical progression would be, market dumps 30-40% when Europe unravels, then print, then 15% rally. I'll buy the fucking 40% dip. Until then, short short short bitchez.
I couldn't agree more that's why the other half of my investments are in physical gold and silver (75% gold 25% silver- gold is more immune to slow downs).
I just can't imagine germany allowing the ECB to print. unlike most of the world germany is keenly aware of the scourge of hyperinflation
Wasn't that a Jeopardy question?
"Print My Ass Off for $500 please, Alek"
a: Germany and Zimbabwe
C1: "What is biggest buyers of paper"
A: "Sooooorrry, no"
C2: "Who were the largest buyers of ink"
A: "Sooooorrry, no." I won't be calling on you Turd, quit buzzing"
Maybe the Ouija board says Armageddon's not that far off: Buy the rumor; sell the news.
However if they did that from these lofty levels in oil and all commodities, the world economy would be crushed defeating their very "solution" as prices would rise exhorbitantly with inflation everywhere particularly on food, the elite would be eaten alive literally all over the world . . A better move would be, let the crash happen, get all prices into the sink then flood the market with money to buy an extra couple of years until things get out of hand again.......then rinse and repeat....I am not sure how many times these game can go on however..... it is hard to print a gazillion trillion to cover for all the derivatives and debt that's out there. CDS's were actually holding it all together more or less until their use was rendered ineffective by the Greek 50% hair cut move.......
...
is reality just that bad that markets can't accept it.
Maybe not: The OTC derivatives market is about USD 600 Trillion, the global stock exchanges are about 50 Trillion.
One might reasonably expect that for every 1% of the OTC-crap that liquidates the stock market should gain 10%. The exchange-traded bonds are already pushed well below inflation, so stocks is where the action is going to be.
The public exchanges are devoid of the fraud, opacity and illiquidity that helped the banks make such epic paper profits in the past - and the very same factors are now stopping them from cashing in. But, via the invisible hand of the central banks, they could.
Maybe one should buy some LEAP calls on some of the stupidest banks - and on the index just to bet on it?
Holy Collateralized Froglegs Batman!
Lets ee how cocky Sarkozy is now. Obnoxious Prick.
To paraphrase O-bozo. "You think he's bad. I have to deal with his bringing about the downfall of the EMU every day."
Prick?? Enlarged or flacid?
The guy's a fucking dwarf.
(No offence meant to vertically challenged humans)
Rumor has it that most of his dwarfism is between his ears and legs.
And who's his wife's baby's daddy? (Did I say that right?)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2052491/Carla-Bruni-baby-First-g...
I'm still waiting for the Spanish and Portugese bonds to hit the fan in a Greek/Italian like way. Those two haven't been very vocal lately.
Guess futures are not allowed to breach 1240 according to the Big Ben.
Wow. Hey, anybody taking bets on Germany yet?
You tell me what happens next, when the sausage hits the wall: http://theinspirationroom.com/daily/commercials/2006/7/renault-crash-test-sausage.jpg
thats what happens when you call the israeli PM a liar
you have a problem calling a spade a spade. To bad no one has the balls to tell it to his face.
I like when they call a douche a douche. It adds clarity. No need to keep these things hidden in the closet. It's high time we discuss reality instead of having everything all sugar coated Eisner-Disney and Holly-Speilberged.
Put a spotlight on the problem. Call out the douche and all his loyal followers. Prosecute for crimes against humanity both physical and financial.
but, but...some video game "blew away expectations". That must be more important as it's the headline on CNBS.
Americans still trying to escape reality
"some video game "blew away expectations""
Not just any video game, it was:
The Plunge Protection team, Home Version!
The challenge level has you fighting worldwide contagion starting when a major investment bank falls (Lehman?).
Drop that french AAA and get it over with. I am sick of waiting for the big crash. Let's get it over with...
Start with a Greek salad, continue with some fresh pasts, and look forward to the coq au vin, with paella on the sides. Do we dare to finish with some Serra de Estrela, some waffles and good Irish whiskey? You bet we do!
Gotta green arrow that.
OK, lets see, we had a 2 days romp, about 200 some points, now we are down 200 some points, well if this is not the end of the world I dont know what is :))))!
Everything will collapse "imminently" :)))!
Get your house in order, buy guns, ammo, water, booze, hookers(disguised as house maids), etc etc etc yadda yadda yadda!
I love ZH but sometimes it just makes me laugh! I mean you kind of get everything here, serious stuff, and comedy! We ALL Know wahts coming and how it'll be but we dont know WHEN and how long it'll last! We are guesstimatig at best, pump up headlines just like MSM does, etc etc.
Why dont we just stick to what really IS and stop making a laugh out of this otherwise informative and revealing site!
We wont see the world collapse today, just another f'ing sell off, off overbought conditions, we'll have WSs beloved santa rally and their bonuses and etc, the world will keep spinning, for most of us!
Suffering from abit of Normalcy Bias, Joe?
Be thankful you have a website that is the only one that paints the picture as it really is!
It is really that bad, prepare as time is truly that short.
Hypothesizing and postulating is fun, Joe. Don't ya get it?
These aren't the bond spreads you're looking for.
So you are saying no-one should be prepared until it is too late?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8rZWw9HE7o
"We ALL Know wahts coming and how it'll be..."
Apparently you don't, hence this foolishness. If you actually had a clue you'd be preparing instead of mocking those who are preparing.
Stop asking websites to tell you what to do and get your shit together.
"what really IS...." Define IS. Ask Clinton. THEY write the world, its your job to read it and then wrap fish in it.
If we didn't laugh, we would cry...
LOL ... as I predicted last week : with CDS gone , the only alternative is to SELL !
Serves them right .
I am so a 100% with you!!!, when the masters of the universe committed their imbecile 50% Greek haircut without triggering CDS's, the law of uninetended consequences kicked in full gear, Italy rolls over , then France and the other PIIGS as well. Good old fashioned selling is the only way to hedge. Yet , their other choice of allwoing pay out on CDS's would have gotten them through ther rear end as well since the CDS payors would have had to liquidate god knows what to come up with the cash for CDS payouts. . To me it was only a gambit of hope, and hope does not get you anywhere in these financial times we live in.....
As somebody else said elsewhere on this site... Ponny up bitchez!!!!
ECB has to choose between not stopping the contagion, or printing itself into hyperinflation, over the next 14 days.
Big banks #winner
because if the ECB chooses the former, taxpayers are on the hook, if big banks fail. If they choose the latter, it means more credit for big banks to speculate with. And the supremacy of the speculative economy is manifest. And taxpayers will pay through inflation, stagnant growth, and further job losses from the deterioration in the real economy.
shut it down. taxpayers will start winning, when the big banks fail.
rage against the dying of the light.
#occupywallstreet
What happens when the Euro finally collapses. Do we have a strong dollar rally as everybody tries to get into dollars? And if that happens , what happens to gold? Does it drop in price. Just trying to figure this out as I'm sitting in a bunch if cash waiting for gold to pull back. Then does the dollar collapse because there is nobody left to buy our debt? That's kind of the way I see it playing out.
deleted.
if the euro truly collapses you will soon be defining your concerns/well being by things other than monetary markers....
Look at what happened to gold during '08 before the banks were granted a stay of execution.
Whether or not the FRB is out of political capital when the next round of outright bailouts is required is anybody's guess, but, barring sticksaves, a proper collapse of Euro "should" induce a massive scramble for reserves (that is, dollar rally) as banks detonate.
Financial karma. Get ready for the big Do-Over.
no way France is going down. it's the only bastion against a bund takeover.
You DO know why France planted lots of trees, yes?
After Thanksgiving day... the FINALCOUNTDOWN...
..or may be next week.
We need the Deus Ex Machina ending. Chop chop mf'ers. Let's get our markets pointed up.
Why should Treasuries and above all, UK gilts remain aloof from this debt fracas? They are all effectively tarred with the same brush. I cannot see the present calm lasting. Safe havens? Is any bond a safe haven any more? No, oil in the ground, coal, food, metals and gold, these are the safest anchorage.
Treasuries & Gilts
Just a WAG .. because they control the game ?
Isnt the curve inverted in German bonds on the long end with the 30y yield being lower than the 20y ?
How quaint. Conventional measures went away in 2008, if not earlier. Get with today's program: confidence, risk on/off, bazookas, new world order.
And unable to hedge using creative modern financial instruments, said crowd has reverted to the good old fashioned version thereof. We call it selling.
I'm glad to see the CDS ponzi start unravelling. Over $1,000 trillion fake "protection" market where not even 1% could actually pay off.
This is why everybody wants to avoid a "credit event". It would be AIG 10,000 times larger.
It's why people holding Greece sovereign bonds took a 50% "voluntary" writedown without being a "credit event".
It's why France sovereign debt still has AAA rating with 150 pip spread to Bund. Pull those AAA ratings and the whole CDS ponzi scheme starts collapsing.
It's amazing how self-deceived bankers can be, trying to maintain this fake fraudulent $1,000 trillion ponzi scheme.
Sovereign debt is the biggest financial bubble in human history. Like all bubbles, it will pop eventually.
Musical Chairs. Which one will be the one without the seat?
Let's hope it's Obummer.
When is Sark forced to resign???????? Good things come in threes right?
As I predicted just 2 days ago....
The first 100 point drop in the ES futures...
Will result in an instantaneous, mad panic into Treasury bonds, which is happening as we speak.
Another crash in 10-yr yields back below 2 freaking percent!!!
Tom Keene's jaw is dropping again, in aghast at the outright collapse in interest rates which will invariably incite even greater "Animal Spirits" to eventually chase stocks even higher..
Uh-huh. And when treasury yeilds explode to 8%, you will come back and tell us that they were a "joke" and you never owned them.
You are fucking trash.
Where is the resession/depression Robo?
You haven't "predicted" anything. After-the-fact "predictions" don't count.
Nice new avatar, but being an "ass guy", I liked your old one better.
If the S&P reverts back down to sub-1,100 then we could see 1.5% on the US 10-year.
If we crash into the 800-900 range, we could see 1.25%, or lower.
If that happens, I'll be looking for some very attractive R/R shorting opportunities....
Yikes, what a morning. I am going back to bed. Wake me when this is over.
France 5y CDS on the uptick at 183 while *Slovakia* is next up at around 221.
that's right. Slovakia. main exports: german cars, hockey stars, and slivovitz.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
And porn. And young prostitutes with college degrees.
Someone (I forget who) on ZH called it : the Greek CDS not being triggered seems like a black swan event in retrospect
me. well, et al.
Kudos sir
Let's have a Bund fire!
They are. Japan is hosting it... It's a BYOC though...(bring your own currency)
Tokyo Starts Burning Radioactive Waste from Other Areas … Tokyo Governor Tells Residents to “Shut Up” and Stop ComplainingJapan already has debs on the kindling...
I would be grateful if Zero Hedge would give us informations on :
- figures as of the volumes (and trend) traded on the German and the French sovereign debt,
- their opinion about the relevance of the use of a spread (relative difference between German Bund and French OAT) as a measure of risk.
- who is buying CDS on European debt. GS/Hedge Funds, Euro-zone Banks, the CIA, E.T, Zero Hedge, all of them ?
Thx
Damn you speculators!!
Dow 36,000 and beyond!
Please Merkel, stop this charade by leaving the euro if you want to save Germany's and Holland's bud.
The bondmarkets want the ECB to print, they are not going to stop unless you do and Germany will go down the drain, like the rest of southern Europe.
You have to behave as reckless as the USA or else.............. this is what happens. USA would like to continue kicking the can for some more years, and Europe is an obstacle right now.
Aw c'mon Tyler we need some encouragement kinda like what my broker told me this morning..."It's not timing the market. It's time IN the market! I said "Oh yeah I forgot. Thanks!"
Where's my money lebowski?
Better ramp up that next war boys.
All is well, Bennanke has everything under control. Greenshoots everywhere.
Of course, they will continue to blame the greeks.
What is this "selling" you speak of? You should add a glossary when using such arcane terms