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And Now... Let's Play Chicken
From Mark Grant, author of Out of the Box
And Now - Let's Play Chicken
Let me outline for you the scrub matches. The first is that the apparent winner of the Greek elections, the New Democracy Party, will try to form a colalition with the PASOK Party and this is what everyone is not betting on. The problem is that the PASOK Party has lobbed a grenade into the coalition discussion, announced by Katerina Diamantopoulou that Pasok will not join into a coalition government with the New Democracy Party unless Syriza also joins the coalition. Syriza stated moments ago it would not do this. The question then comes whether ND can form a government (150+ seats) with any of the other remaining parties including neo-nazi New Dawn or the communists. The answer is most likely not,so Greece again, for the moment, is nowhere. Then the New Democracy Party also campaigned on re-doing the terms of the EU bailout which Germany said earlier today would not be happening. The markets may well rally on the headlines but reality will set in soon enough I would think. At the moment, which could change in a Greek heartbeat or the smashing of a plate, Greece is in limbo once again and I would not be betting too heavily or cheering in the marketplacethat everything is resolved; it is clearly not.
Then the next game of chicken is not only will Germany/the EU back up from their position but will they give Greece more money because if they don't the country and the banks more money they both will default. So it is no government in Greece for the moment, playing chicken over the bailout terms, playing chicken over new money for Greece as their economy continues to deteriorate and as they amount they owe now, much less any new money, cannot be paid back under any scenario that anyone can concoct. The headlines may well drive the markets' reaction briefly but "watch out below" will be what takes hold as it must because that assumption is based upon facts and not hype.
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Ya mas, bitchez!
hey Ty when you type "watch out below" you may unwittingly mean the view from beneath the Bernank's helicopter as he rains down more bullshit QE zirp twist ad infinitum........fuck's sake these scammed out markets are just too much!
why would you call markGrant "Ty"?
or think he may unwittingly mean something the person you don't think you're talking about didn't say?
yes edit: Ty for Mark Grant. apologies. unwitting greek election brain rot.
You hittin the bath salts again, vast?
This election outcome gives to the Greeks more time to get their Euros out of the banks (actually out of the Bundesbank thanks to Target 2).
Quite smart actually.
It's all about 'the other'.
"watch out below." When up is down. Unless down really means up. Which means down goes up. Until up makes more sense. Then down. Fuck's sake indeed.
After they collide they'll finally learn to stop playing chicken with vehicles missing steering wheels.
Why do Greek boys try and grow moustaches....so when they grow up they will look like thier Mum.
I always get the giggles when I'm talking to Greek blokes....
I just keep thinking ' I know Your Mum takes it up the ass...."
Don't drop the soap or you will too when talking to greek blokes
A few days ago i posted that if new democracy wins, gold would fall by $59 and stock market would bounce. This of course will be just a temporary phenomenon until reality reasserts itself. Gold already down $13.
Fucking Greeks! What a disappointment. Thought they were going to bring it all down :( Anyway, I had a thought last night: Why aren't the Greeks leaving the Euro, and just using the $US? Could fuck off all those debts, not have to worry about a drachma devaluation, could trade Euros for $s, no problem. In fact it would be a coup de grace to jump into dollars after fist fucking the euro. It would be a helluva return on their exchange from euros to dollars too, cuz they would be abandoning the boat that they helped sink. Oh well.
I may be a fool. but it seems to me that everything happening now is nothing short of economic warfare, with the last standing being the victor? The Fed keep conjuring money but it hasn't such a detrimental affect on exchange rates right? Why not invite all the periphery euro countries to dump the euro for $, and no matter how much printing Ben Shalom does, it won't matter because everyone will be running for dollar safety. Could be that this will be the case against all currencies until someone backs their with gold. Am I mistaken? If so, please fill me in.
Cheers.
Correct, if you look across the world, every country with an unstable currency uses the USD on the streets, and prices exports/imports in dollars.
While the end is nigh for the mighty greenback, it would buy time for Greece. and save face for NewDemocracy when they have to climb down from 'let us eat cake'
More futzing around. Europe is not ready for certainty, but certainty may come from some unexpected direction. It is all shaky, everywhere, and Germany is not suicidal.
mark's certainty is that now that the greeks have held their election, someone else will do something next
maybe you should stick with that ok?
I refuse to care about Greek elections
So do the markets...
Everything is good..
As long as they have that little Spanish banking thing taken care of..
and the little Irish retroactive equal treatment deal...
and China does not contract any more..
and Japan picks up and doesn’t have any more big earthquakes..
and that little US budget thing is wrapped up..
It’s all good.
Look after yourself, family, friends and neighbors. And let the chips fall where they may.
At least Europe is giving us a preview of what is crossing the Atlantic. 10% of GDP deficits against 2% GDP growth (entirely government sector) and we don't have a problem ?
I must have missed that chapter in the General Theory where you keep pouring gas down the carb. - even after the engine has seized.
altho i am learning in realTime how threatening the elegances of slewienomincsTM are to many here, try this: the checks are in the mail
this is the slewie bellweather, BiCheZ!
when you can no longer say this, everything is no longer "good"
too simple?
Yeah,
And the socialists in France want a bigger pan-Euro deal
The socialists in Greece want out of the pan-Euro deal
The Germans just want all the authority but no financial responsibility for the pan-Euro deal (reminds me of my kids)
The City of London wants to keep leeching the treasure of the pan-or-no-pan-Euro deal
The US doesn't give a shit about the pan-Euro deal
Bernak is scared shitless of any Euro deal
Timmah is asking Dudley what Pan-Euro deal everybody's talking about
Soros has bets to make lots of money off of any pan-Euro deal and use the profits for the next pan-Euro deal
Nigel Farage is cool
Everybody else is getting sick and fucking tired hearing Juncker, Bizarro, von Rumpy talk about the success of the pan-Euro deal
The Fins just want more collateral
And somebody better do something dramatic with the pan-Euro deal because we need something new to make fun of since the current pan-Euro deal is getting boring
Paul/Farage 2012
Things will pan out.
They just need to make sure they don't leap out of the Euro pan and into the fire or else the shit will really hit the pan.
"The Germans just want all the authority but no financial responsibility for the pan-Euro deal (reminds me of my kids)"
I junked you for that. Think about it.
They have another election and can't form a govt., which means another election etc. etc. This is getting crazy.
The Greek's idea of a functional government is something that doesn't function.
buck!
they can form a goobermint!
gPapa had the last one and resigned. he controls pasok and his college roomie antonioSam controls nudie(newD) ; together they can form a goobermint anytime they fuking please b/c they have over 151 votes and if they can hold their party for the vote, they can govern if they wish
so they obvious do not want to, at least today; kinda like after the last election, really
that is true and we know it for certain; please try to understand now that the election is over, ok? where the fuk are you people getting yer info about politics?
they can form a goobermint, but why? so they can answer the EU's insults? gPapa has already told the EU between these last elections: you take us out, financially, we take you out, financially
and that's where it still stands; greece has been all-in for quite a while and the ball is in angela's court for quite a while
so, now you know, ok?
p.s. greece did not blink here... (that assumes he can understand me, i know...)
TPTB got it wrong as usual when they blocked G-Pap's idea for a referendum.
With a referendum out of the way, the greek election would have been much more decisive.
Now we get a fiddle and a fuddle and a dribble and a muddle, one day at a time.
Hungary, eat your heart out.
ECB owns 35% of Greek sovereign debt. But the Greeks are playing hostage games.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/17/debt-saturated-greece-stays-in-the-euro-euro-strengths-a-bit/
Throwing good money at a bad debt-to-income ratio periphery nation is no different than an alcoholic telling you that its his/her last drink. Just give me a few rounds of financial reform interventions before I tell you to take your debt & fuck off. Err, I mean that… I need you to support my spending habits…
Except: it isn't "good money". It's debt...bailing out debt. And don't mention the CDS's stacked above, and the (endlessly re-hypothecated) "collateral" propping up the entire, teetering structure. As for the phony election in Greece, the anti-bailout parties (Reds, Golden Dawn, Syriza, etc) got 60% of the vote...bankster stooges (fake "conservatives", PASOK) got 40%. Latter only rule via the "bonus 50" seats joke. A scam inside a farce within a chimera. This regime, if there is one, will last no more than a month.
I gotta say, thats good stuff right there...
"A scam inside a farce within a chimera."
Gimme my debt binky!!!
+1
Banks will win with getting paid back or they win by having 10 times the Credit default swaps that pay them even more if the Countries fail.
I actually think that the Banks want it all to fail. The get paid on the Credit Default Swaps and then buy all of the assets of the Country for pennys on the dollar.
As they go thru all of the European Countries, America will be next.
You can't win a bet on the end of the world. Either you're wrong and you lose, or you're right and you can't collect. There are $700 TRILLION worth of CDSs out there, and if any of them trigger, the dominoes only fall until someone says "come and take it!"
you don't need to tell w_f_s what she can and can't win a bet on, son
nor do you need to speak of CDS again for a while; that's quite enough disinfo for now, given that your last sentence doesn't even make sense. come and take what? what "dominoes"?
are you aware that if i hold a short-dated way out-of-the-money option on apple for 500 contracts the options may be worth 1/16 or a bit over $3000 and they will probably expire worthless, but who knows?
however they do represent derivative contracts on about $25,000,000 worth of stock
now if that frightens you, get some help
give to me large amounts of money so we can do the kick the can dance more
But, sir, we have run out of road....
then now to the boats! and a can that floats!
you! to the galley!
you! to the oars!
to liberty! and piracy!
what fun!
Is this when everyone acts like there's still hope and the elites didn't just cornhole us? Ok, I'll play along.
The market could drop HUGE any moment! There are still some obscure and improbable events that just might be a black swan. It's teetering on a plunge.
Nice avatar. Jail Wall Street Crooks? Have you listened? http://tinyurl.com/cd5cyjo/
ECB can just print a few Billion, it's only paper
Greeks do nothing. Next move is Germany. They either bail Greece out unconditionally or not! Germany loses either way.
Actually, you know what?
I think the next move might be in Egypt.
If everyone would have listened to me and locked Granny (YAYA) and Grandad (PAPOUS) in the house; we wouldn't be in this predicament
I always love what Mark Grant writes, but I have one question:
How can the market rally now that the Primary Dealers have basically bought up S&P? At this point even the FLOW would not matter since there's not much left to trade.
Even Goldman said that warehousing stocks into ETFs to lure the few suckers left, is .............giving negative returns.
We're back to 2008. Primary Dealers own everything that is worthless, same as in 2008. Time to have a couple of them go crapitized, same as in 2008 with Bear Stearns and Lehman. MFG was last year.
Any betting who are the next two?
I would give my right testicle to see JPM go tits up.
Unfortunately it won't happen. JPM is basically the Goverment.
Bank of Nova Scotia, New York Agency
BMO Capital Markets Corp.
BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Barclays Capital Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
Jefferies & Company, Inc.
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
Nomura Securities International, Inc.
RBC Capital Markets, LLC
RBS Securities Inc.
SG Americas Securities, LLC
UBS Securities LLC.
Excluding the canadian ones that are explicitly backed up by Canadian Gov, who could go crap?
It will happen.
And JPM will take the government with it.
Did you think that governments were eternal?
As I see it, the current administration and the U.S. federal government as we know it is hanging on by a thread. http://tinyurl.com/cd5cyjo/
It would be fitting that JPM took down the government. After all, JPM financed and facilitated our shameful entry into WWI which largely charted the course and role of the government over the last 100 years.
I'd give my right arm to be ambidextrous.
No Martingales, though.
we are now featuring deflationary black swanTM martingales and a triple-lindy reverse ETF
one left arm, please... we wouldn't want you left unhedged; or me unarmed (heh)
That's actually the downside here.
This good news means there won't be any concerted global central bank action tomorrow. The Fed doesn't have to do QE now on Wednesday.
We can return to slow, grinding deflation and given it will be closer and closer to the election, the Fed cannot act.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-17/third-fed-stimulus-won-t-be-better-than-qe2-romney-says.html
Romney just crapped on all stimulae. I'm sure Benny and all the FOMC members still want their jobs.
I think all stimulae are being postponed until Dec 2012, unles a catastrophy occurs, which is quite possible, since it should have been allowed to occur in Nov 2011 when credit markets froze up.
as I said before ....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-they-come-ireland-demands-renegotiati...
There is more action in the Euro currency than on the soccer pitch.
I still don't understand why the only solvent country in the Eurozone, namely Germany, doesn't just quote Cartman and say "Screw you guys, I'm going home" and drop out of the Euro. Then the remaining circus could fend for itself. What's in it for Germany to stay in? China is their major trade partner, not the European countries (because they have no money they cannot pay to import goods anyway). I'm obviously a simpleton, but I for sure don't understand why they stay in.
Ze Germans want to control Europe
its zeir dream
look at geography - it's manifest destiny , not whether they want or not.
They do not want to control but they have to deal with their neighbouring countries.
While I wrote this another $100,000 may have been added to US National debt.
That's correct -- if you took just over two seconds to write your post.
If only the U.S. didn't steal their hard-earned victory in WWI.
My guess is that they want to benefit from the lower euro for their exports for the longest period of time possible. Sell those BMW's!!
German pols, like American pols, do what the Bank of Rothschild and Warburg tells them to do..."if it doesn't, it gets the hose."
so now there's no reason for the FED et. al. to act, right? didn't bernanke just get finished telling congress any further fed action would be "reckless" ?
The FED will intervene, just not today.
seriously, what basis could the use?
This is retarded.
Erections to infinity
.. sorry, I mean Elections.
Okay, so Greece is saved (for now) and so is Spain?
Right after italy gets their banks saved with a few hundred billions in pocket money and france gets it's 120 billion german taxpayers money because...which they deserve and than everything will be as superduper as it is now...
And while we're at it... WHEN TO I GET A BILLION?!? WHAT ABOUT ME???!!!
And what's the progress on that Mars colonisation project?!
Yes, get in line and for all those anti-lemmings out there,,,,stop smokin' so much dope and drink some Kool-aid, yo!
As soon as hyperinflation hits EVERYONE is a billionaire! Thats when we get our billions.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230383640457747251161762723... What will the New world Order Look like just posted on WSJ...
Time to buy gold paper!
What you know about Gold?
GOLD - Asa Soltan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=aqeYgDejQG8
--------------------------
Btw Motorhead, I didn't give you a junk vote. Perosnally I thought you're probably just being sarcastic, lol.
Indeed, LOL. In fact, that ABC with the line through it (in the menu bar, above this text field) didn't work. So ein Scheiss.
Classic case of the rescuer who becomes the drowning victim or like the beneficiary turning the tables and extorting the benefactor.
Waaahhh...gimme my binky!!!
Even by ZH standards this article is extremely poorly written.
Article is from Mark J. Grant not ZH, what do you mean standards ZH articles are generally well written.
hmmm
Like the facts have gotten in the way of the tards...
So market rallies the past 2 weeks on QE coming...now that is not in the picture so market rallies some more. German and Swiss interest rates negative, US yields at all times low, S&P up 100% from 2009 lows standing there by itself because every other market is up a lot less or even down from 09 lows...when the markets make this little sense you know the end is near...
francis_sawyer concurs... Let's play chicken...
~~~
Top 3 "chicken" playing scenes of all-time
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8ZkY7tnpRs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7hZ9jKrwvo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKosmXx1gkc
Jan and Dean - Dead Man's Curve
fuck yea ~ "well the last thing I remember doc, I started to swerve"...
gud catch slewie!
Doheny & Crescent Hts... francis_sawyer partied there once after doing the ceremonial 'MILK TOAST' off the 3rd "O" on the Hollywood sign one night... (Which is, also, another story... & why this generation is so fucked)...
all i hafta do is think of that shithead in the vette choking that rubber chicken and even tyler doesn't piss me off for at least a half-hour
CNN said we can breathe a sigh of relief. The Eurozone is saved.
CORRECTION:
The NAZI party is not New Dawn. It's Golden Shower.
Its all Greek to me ;-)
...
ES +9.50 to 1347 @ 6:25pm EST ...
We're long from 1320 and see an upside price target at 1391 so long as the market can sustain trade north of 1320 +/-
+1 for not giving the fuking link!
Groundhog weekend. STFR
reminds me of the Greeks running up their credit card debt saying"the banks screw us, we screw the banks back".
Just keep the bailouts coming!
That's what people do when they know they will file bankruptcy in the future, max those cards out and then throw in the towel. Need a little cushion to land on.
I can't say I actually care about this election. The only odd thing about it is the Central Banker statement beforehand that they stand ready to intervene...some more...in what..I don't know.
Early Asia is always dominated by the Japanese and the Australian banks, which are pretty much always afraid that whenever the US Dollar falls, the Japanese Yen will get too strong.
That's why you see the initial - silly - adverse reaction in Gold, despite Oil soaring and the US Dollar plummeting. The Japanese, especially, always react to fear of the Yen escalating by dumping paper Gold.
I have a theory that Sunday paper PM early pops are dealers and refineres dehedging physical that they sold over the weekend. Not sure what if anything applies today with bankers threatening to make it rain paper money in whatever ignorant way they desire.
i didn't junk you but be careful trying to "explain why markets have different prices than the last time we explained this"
The Japanese, especially, always react to fear of the Yen escalating by dumping paper Gold.
this might make sense if you had written: dumping paper gold for dollars
So let's re-cap: European Union still in tact, for the moment. Some banks won't make it out alive from this mess. But party on because Greece is still in the EU.
And if ZH is correct, more pain to follow as reality takes hold. Who wants to be a party pooper? Party on, reality be damned.
Nobody wants to leave the party when they're pretty sure they can get at least one more free glass of Cristal.
Bloomberg already announced it. They're taking the bailout and gong back on vacation.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BCKwGbvym0
Whatcha doin' Greece? Tell the banksters and gangsters Good-Bye and
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzCkD3vRukA&feature=related...
PASOK is just angling for some prime minister (not Prime Minister) positions...I imagine they will cave in and join by the third day at the latest, possibly with the additional support of Independent Greeks.
ND would not have won if they had not recombined with the splinter group that won 2.9% in the last election. As it is, they cannot possibly form a government that doesn't completely disenfranchse well over a third of the population, so the unrest will only get worse.
A narrow loss is really the best thing that Tsipris could have hoped for. Now he gets more seats in Parliment and continues to play the role of the cool opposition leader, gaining more and more popularity as Greek life continues to deteriorate despite anything that the government does (or anything that the government possibly can do...) I imagine SYZIRA will destroy all opposition in the next elections...by which time Greece's exit from the Euro will be all but guaranteed, and Tsipris will have a clean slate with which to try to rebuild the country.
L0L!!!
pasok is gonna join what, exactly? don't you realize that if gPap and antonioSam form a goobermint, there won't be another "popularity contest" till it falls?
if gPapa thinks greece needs a goobermint, it shall get one; did you not see the pre-election polls ahowing the increased support for syriZZZa and increased support to remain in the EU
what you feel like isn't unimportant, but it isn't all you should be aware of... nothing has really happened, for example...
As long as these morons keep kicking the debt can down the road to perfidy, me and my gal will continue to drink and make wine and beer, so that no matter which way the world turns, we'll stay happily inebriated.
Fuck it, really, it's all relative. If you're OK now, you'll probably be in decent shape tomorrow, next month, next year. If you're heavily in debt, default, screw a banker of two and move on. If you're counting on a pension in the next 5-10 years, you're an idiot.
Once Europe is trashed, the rest of the world goes into aw-fuck, bi-flation mode. Inflation, deflation, doesn't matter. Your own interests are what matter. Tend to your own affairs.
That's all I got. The markets and macro-economics be damned.
throwing good money after bad?
http://covert.ias3.com/expose/
A little positive thinking for a change. Maybe next week we will all wake up to Obama, Brenanke, and hundreds of other traitors in chains and being perp walked in front of the cameras. http://tinyurl.com/cd5cyjo/
+1 for the great mental visual.
euro slipping
Going short, Wednesday Jun 20th, 4:00pm.
You're right, Greece will never payoff its debt just like the USA will never payoff its debt. At some unknown point in time, all the world's accumulated debt will have to be zeroed out. Whether it's done peacefully or not remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the financial titans can continue their circle jerk in the phony markets of credit default swaps on tranches of investment grade debt until one of them has all the money.
Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Greece bailouts forever. Just threaten to financially blow up the rest of the ECB members and they will come running with more money.
Time to start loaning our newly printed Benie Bucks to the asteroid mining industry. Astrolyndra Mining Corp CEO A.Mozillo
Baby steps... let's start with the moon. I mean, actually setting foot there for real.
"This country's like a great big chicken just waiting to get plucked". Tony M
Spain, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Ireland, the defuses in Brussels and the ECB will just keep on bailing you out.
Take all the bailouts you can!
Rally warning continues...
SPX bullish daily chart strengthened further on Friday & more rally expected.
DOW initial target approx 13,170 & more upside after that.
MORE:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis
So it is no government in Greece for the moment, playing chicken over the bailout terms, playing chicken over new money for Greece as their economy continues to deteriorate and as they amount they owe now, much less any new money, cannot be paid back under any scenario that anyone can... COCONUT! < FTFY
Wasn´t MillionDollarRoboMogoloid in here yesterday claiming that a New Democracy victory would spark the Mother of All Rallies? Thank God I stay short...