And Now... Let's Play Chicken

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Mark Grant, author of Out of the Box

And Now - Let's Play Chicken

Let me outline for you the scrub matches. The first is that the apparent winner of the Greek elections, the New Democracy Party, will try to form a colalition with the PASOK Party and this is what everyone is not betting on. The problem is that the PASOK Party has lobbed a grenade into the coalition discussion, announced by Katerina Diamantopoulou that Pasok will not join into a coalition government with the New Democracy Party unless Syriza also joins the coalition. Syriza stated moments ago it would not do this. The question then comes whether ND can form a government (150+ seats) with any of the other remaining parties including neo-nazi New Dawn or the communists. The answer is most likely not,so Greece again, for the moment, is nowhere. Then the New Democracy Party also campaigned on re-doing the terms of the EU bailout which Germany said earlier today would not be happening. The markets may well rally on the headlines but reality will set in soon enough I would think. At the moment, which could change in a Greek heartbeat or the smashing of a plate, Greece is in limbo once again and I would not be betting too heavily or cheering in the marketplacethat everything is resolved; it is clearly not.

Then the next game of chicken is not only will Germany/the EU back up from their position but will they give Greece more money because if they don't the country and the banks more money they both will default. So it is no government in Greece for the moment, playing chicken over the bailout terms, playing chicken over new money for Greece as their economy continues to  deteriorate and as they amount they owe now, much less any new money, cannot be paid back under any scenario that anyone can concoct. The headlines may well drive the markets' reaction briefly but "watch out below" will be what takes hold as it must because that assumption is based upon facts and not hype.

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Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:41 | 2534826 Motorhead
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Ya mas, bitchez!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:12 | 2534903 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

hey Ty when you type "watch out below" you may unwittingly mean the view from beneath the Bernank's helicopter as he rains down more bullshit QE zirp twist ad infinitum........fuck's sake these scammed out markets are just too much!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:14 | 2534912 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

why would you call markGrant "Ty"?

or think he may unwittingly mean something the person you don't think you're talking about didn't say?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:16 | 2534917 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

yes edit: Ty for Mark Grant. apologies. unwitting greek election brain rot.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:21 | 2535040 Rahm
Rahm's picture

You hittin the bath salts again, vast?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 03:56 | 2535616 OttoMBMP
OttoMBMP's picture

This election outcome gives to the Greeks more time to get their Euros out of the banks (actually out of the Bundesbank thanks to Target 2).

Quite smart actually.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:43 | 2535261 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

It's all about 'the other'.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:16 | 2534918 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

 "watch out below." When up is down. Unless down really means up. Which means down goes up. Until up makes more sense. Then down. Fuck's sake indeed.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:57 | 2535019 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

After they collide they'll finally learn to stop playing chicken with vehicles missing steering wheels.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:50 | 2534990 Golden Balls
Golden Balls's picture

Why do Greek boys try and grow moustaches....so when they grow up they will look like thier Mum.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:58 | 2535003 koperniuk666
koperniuk666's picture

I always get the giggles when I'm talking to Greek blokes....

I just keep thinking ' I know Your Mum takes it up the ass...."

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:22 | 2535043 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Don't drop the soap or you will too when talking to greek blokes

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:56 | 2535000 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

A few days ago i posted that if new democracy wins, gold would fall by $59 and stock market would bounce. This of course will be just a temporary phenomenon until reality reasserts itself. Gold already down $13.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 02:06 | 2535530 Tsukato
Tsukato's picture

Fucking Greeks! What a disappointment. Thought they were going to bring it all down :( Anyway, I had a thought last night: Why aren't the Greeks leaving the Euro, and just using the $US? Could fuck off all those debts, not have to worry about a drachma devaluation, could trade Euros for $s, no problem. In fact it would be a coup de grace to jump into dollars after fist fucking the euro. It would be a helluva return on their exchange from euros to dollars too, cuz they would be abandoning the boat that they helped sink. Oh well.

I may be a fool. but it seems to me that everything happening now is nothing short of economic warfare, with the last standing being the victor? The Fed keep conjuring money but it hasn't such a detrimental affect on exchange rates right? Why not invite all the periphery euro countries to dump the euro for $, and no matter how much printing Ben Shalom does, it won't matter because everyone will be running for dollar safety. Could be that this will be the case against all currencies until someone backs their with gold. Am I mistaken? If so, please fill me in.

Cheers.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 05:46 | 2535686 theprofromdover
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Correct, if you look across the world, every country with an unstable currency uses the USD on the streets, and prices exports/imports in dollars.

While the end is nigh for the mighty greenback, it would buy time for Greece. and save face for NewDemocracy when they have to climb down from 'let us eat cake'

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:41 | 2534827 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

More futzing around. Europe is not ready for certainty, but certainty may come from some unexpected direction. It is all shaky, everywhere, and Germany is not suicidal.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:17 | 2534925 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

mark's certainty is that now that the greeks have held their election, someone else will do something next

maybe you should stick with that ok?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:42 | 2534830 Starving Artist
Starving Artist's picture

I refuse to care about Greek elections

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:45 | 2534842 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

So do the markets...

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:08 | 2534904 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Everything is good..

As long as they have that little Spanish banking thing taken care of..

and the little Irish retroactive equal treatment deal...

and China does not contract any more..

and Japan picks up and doesn’t have any more big earthquakes..

and that little US budget thing is wrapped up..

It’s all good.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:23 | 2534941 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Look after yourself, family, friends and neighbors. And let the chips fall where they may.

At least Europe is giving us a preview of what is crossing the Atlantic. 10% of GDP deficits against 2% GDP growth (entirely government sector) and we don't have a problem ?

I must have missed that chapter in the General Theory where you keep pouring gas down the carb. - even after the engine has seized.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:24 | 2534945 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

altho i am learning in realTime how threatening the elegances of slewienomincsTM are to many here, try this:  the checks are in the mail

this is the slewie bellweather, BiCheZ!

when you can no longer say this, everything is no longer "good"

too simple?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:25 | 2534947 knukles
knukles's picture

Yeah,

And the socialists in France want a bigger pan-Euro deal

The socialists in Greece want out of the pan-Euro deal

The Germans just want all the authority but no financial responsibility for the pan-Euro deal (reminds me of my kids)

The City of London wants to keep leeching the treasure of the pan-or-no-pan-Euro deal

The US doesn't give a shit about the pan-Euro deal

Bernak is scared shitless of any Euro deal

Timmah is asking Dudley what Pan-Euro deal everybody's talking about

Soros has bets to make lots of money off of any pan-Euro deal and use the profits for the next pan-Euro deal

Nigel Farage is cool

Everybody else is getting sick and fucking tired hearing Juncker, Bizarro, von Rumpy talk about the success of the pan-Euro deal

The Fins just want more collateral

And somebody better do something dramatic with the pan-Euro deal because we need something new to make fun of since the current pan-Euro deal is getting boring

Paul/Farage 2012

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:10 | 2535069 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Things will pan out.

They just need to make sure they don't leap out of the Euro pan and into the fire or else the shit will really hit the pan. 

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 04:20 | 2535630 OttoMBMP
OttoMBMP's picture

"The Germans just want all the authority but no financial responsibility for the pan-Euro deal (reminds me of my kids)"

I junked you for that. Think about it.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:51 | 2534993 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They have another election and can't form a govt., which means another election etc. etc.  This is getting crazy.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:12 | 2535033 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

The Greek's idea of a functional government is something that doesn't function.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:01 | 2535277 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

buck! 

they can form a goobermint!

gPapa had the last one and resigned.  he controls pasok and his college roomie antonioSam controls nudie(newD) ;  together they can form a goobermint anytime they fuking please b/c they have over 151 votes and if they can hold their party for the vote, they can govern if they wish

so they obvious do not want to, at least today;  kinda like after the last election, really

that is true and we know it for certain;  please try to understand now that the election is over, ok?  where the fuk are you people getting yer info about politics? 

they can form a goobermint, but why?  so they can answer the EU's insults?  gPapa has already told the EU between these last elections:  you take us out, financially, we take you out, financially

and that's where it still stands;  greece has been all-in for quite a while and the ball is in angela's court for quite a while

so, now you know, ok? 

p.s.  greece did not blink here... (that assumes he can understand me,  i know...)

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 05:50 | 2535692 theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

TPTB got it wrong as usual when they blocked G-Pap's idea for a referendum.

With a referendum out of the way, the greek election would have been much more decisive.

Now we get a fiddle and a fuddle and a dribble and a muddle, one day at a time.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:42 | 2534833 Rahm
Rahm's picture

Hungary, eat your heart out.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:43 | 2534834 Snakeeyes
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ECB owns 35% of Greek sovereign debt. But the Greeks are playing hostage games. 

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/17/debt-saturated-greece-stays-in-the-euro-euro-strengths-a-bit/

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:45 | 2534840 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Throwing good money at a bad debt-to-income ratio periphery nation is no different than an alcoholic telling you that its his/her last drink. Just give me a few rounds of financial reform interventions before I tell you to take your debt & fuck off. Err, I mean that… I need you to support my spending habits…

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:30 | 2534939 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

  Except: it isn't "good money". It's debt...bailing out debt. And don't mention the CDS's stacked above, and the (endlessly re-hypothecated) "collateral" propping up the entire, teetering structure. As for the phony election in Greece, the anti-bailout parties (Reds, Golden Dawn, Syriza, etc) got 60% of the vote...bankster stooges (fake "conservatives", PASOK) got 40%. Latter only rule via the "bonus 50" seats joke. A scam inside a farce within a chimera. This regime, if there is one, will last no more than a month.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:45 | 2534984 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I gotta say, thats good stuff right there...

"A scam inside a farce within a chimera."

Gimme my debt binky!!!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:51 | 2535271 nope-1004
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+1

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:52 | 2534997 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Banks will win with getting paid back or they win by having 10 times the Credit default swaps that pay them even more if the Countries fail.

I actually think that the Banks want it all to fail.  The get paid on the Credit Default Swaps and then buy all of the assets of the Country for pennys on the dollar.

As they go thru all of the European Countries, America will be next.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:15 | 2535026 BooMushroom
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You can't win a bet on the end of the world. Either you're wrong and you lose, or you're right and you can't collect. There are $700 TRILLION worth of CDSs out there, and if any of them trigger, the dominoes only fall until someone says "come and take it!"

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:37 | 2535154 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

you don't need to tell w_f_s what she can and can't win a bet on, son

nor do you need to speak of CDS again for a while;  that's quite enough disinfo for now,  given that your last sentence doesn't even make sense.  come and take what?  what "dominoes"?

are you aware that if i hold a short-dated way out-of-the-money option on apple for 500 contracts the options may be worth 1/16 or a bit over $3000 and they will probably expire worthless, but who knows?

however they do represent derivative contracts on about $25,000,000 worth of stock

now if that frightens you, get some help

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:45 | 2534843 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

give to me large amounts of money so we can do the kick the can dance more

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:25 | 2534948 Kayman
Kayman's picture

But, sir, we have run out of road....

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:21 | 2535321 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 then now to the boats! and a can that floats!

you! to the galley!

you! to the oars!

to liberty!  and piracy! 

what fun!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:16 | 2534844 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Is this when everyone acts like there's still hope and the elites didn't just cornhole us? Ok, I'll play along.

The market could drop HUGE any moment!  There are still some obscure and improbable events that just might be a black swan.  It's teetering on a plunge. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:09 | 2535298 toomanyfakecons...
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Nice avatar. Jail Wall Street Crooks? Have you listened? http://tinyurl.com/cd5cyjo/

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:46 | 2534845 solecsun
solecsun's picture

ECB can just print a few Billion, it's only paper

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:49 | 2534852 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Greeks do nothing. Next move is Germany. They either bail Greece out unconditionally or not! Germany loses either way.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:38 | 2535159 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Actually, you know what?

I think the next move might be in Egypt.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 02:07 | 2535533 Loukanika the r...
Loukanika the riot dog's picture

If everyone would have listened to me and locked Granny (YAYA) and Grandad (PAPOUS) in the house; we wouldn't be in this predicament

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:51 | 2534857 ekm
ekm's picture

I always love what Mark Grant writes, but I have one question:

How can the market rally now that the Primary Dealers have basically bought up S&P? At this point even the FLOW would not matter since there's not much left to trade.

Even Goldman said that warehousing stocks into ETFs to lure the few suckers left, is .............giving negative returns.

 

We're back to 2008. Primary Dealers own everything that is worthless, same as in 2008. Time to have a couple of them go crapitized, same as in 2008 with Bear Stearns and Lehman. MFG was last year.

Any betting who are the next two?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:58 | 2534880 ChelseaAggro
ChelseaAggro's picture

I would give my right testicle to see JPM go tits up.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:09 | 2534892 ekm
ekm's picture

Unfortunately it won't happen. JPM is basically the Goverment.

 

Bank of Nova Scotia, New York Agency
BMO Capital Markets Corp.
BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Barclays Capital Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
Jefferies & Company, Inc.
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
Nomura Securities International, Inc.
RBC Capital Markets, LLC
RBS Securities Inc.
SG Americas Securities, LLC
UBS Securities LLC.

Excluding the canadian ones that are explicitly backed up by Canadian Gov, who could go crap?

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