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And Now For Some Bad Economic News For A Change
The past few weeks have been so heavy on horrendous newsflow out of Europe, that we've had virtually no chance to analyze the negative news in this country. And following an atrocious H1 GDP number, and just as ugly August Non Farm Payrolls number, many are betting the ranch that at this point the economy has no choice but to go up. As most know by now, the conventional wisdom wildcard that is supposed to take Q2 GDP from its stall speed level back to some modest hockeysticking, is autos, and more specifically car assemblies and production. Unfortunately, as often tends to happen, conventional wisdom is wrong and we are happy to demonstrate, using Stone McCarthy data, that not only will autos not push Q3 GDP higher as expected, but in fact the manufacturing production which is expected to benefit from a strong car market, as well as Industrial Production as a final metric, will disappointing substantially, leading to a major miss in Q3 GDP, which we have anticipated will be at best a zero, and realistically, a negative print, and carry over such manufacturing weakness into Q4 and 2012.
From Stone McCarthy:
The automobile sector will make a smaller contribution to manufacturing output in August, as well as in July, than previously thought.
According to Wards Autos, the U.S. motor vehicle assembly rate is now projected at 8.737 million units, annualized for August, which would be up 1.9% from July. The previous August estimate had been pegged at 9.36 million units, which reflected a much more stronger increase of 7.3% from July. The reduction in the production run is in response to weakening demand for vehicles given the softening in the economic outlook over recent weeks.
Additionally, the July data have been revised lower. The July assembly rate is now seen at 8.574 million units (+8.7%mom), based on revisions from Wards, versus the originally reported rate of 8.725 million units (+10.6%mom). We suspect that July manufacturing output and IP will be revised lower, assuming that all other things are kept equal.
What does this mean practically?
For the upcoming IP report for August, we project manufacturing output to decline by 0.2% after rising by 0.6% in July. We forecast overall IP to decline by 0.4% in August after rising by 0.9% in July. We had previously thought that motor vehicle output could rise by 3.5% in August based on the earlier production estimates provided by Wards. Now, we believe motor vehicle output will be up about 1% in August.
As a reminder, the last time we did a comparable analysis using Wards data, Stone McCarthy got not only the disappointing "surprise" in IP number right, but led to Zero Hedge predicting the parallel collapse in Q2 GDP as well. To wit, from May 27, "Expect to see drastic downward cuts to May Industrial Production and next, to Q2 GDP."
We are 100% confident this will be the case once again. Look for confirmation this Thursday at 9:15 am when the August IP data is released.
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Must... go... long... GM... (gasp!)
Expect the algos to be prmed and ready at 9:16. Must. Not. Meltdown.
And then the trumping algo kicks in at the end of the day.... if {fill in any scenario here}, then buy
Must find....new carrot...must....dangle.....carrot...
Rumor in late day trading about China doing something or other with $$ should save the markets. And by markets i dont mean actual markets, just US equities.
Ummm...zero...that should be past tense....as in "saved" the markets this afternoon.
Here in the present tense where the butcher's bill has come due........ Auto Channel Stuffing, bitchez!!!!
I wasnt too clear - i meant in the future tense, as this rumor will keep on being perpetuated to save markets from ever closing red now.
Yeah...because that is what it did during the last four iterations...or actually ten iterations if you include the Greek versions. What the fuck are you smoking, man? And don't Bogart that thing, man.
Right the markets will just keep going up because they found in an unpublished Keynes book in a footnote it says 'If all else fails, simply dangle carrot from stick in front of equities in the collapsed economy and they'll just rise every day.'
maybe the new carrot will be Kim Kardisian
sarc.
I can't think of a reason the market hasn't crashed yet, so he may have a point.
Another rumor I got from a friend today. This is just unfukn believable. But the owners of the HFTs read ZH.
Hence, when ZH becomes too negative they actually bid the market up to burn any possible weak short hands.
Have we got to the point where market fundamentals of any kind do not matter.
Is it now about the HFTs burning long or short money depending on where the most money is.
And my only thought. What are they going to do with all that supply of stock somebody is holding.
The float grows without ownership. Hmmmm.
What the fuck are you talking about...they are not holding a supply of stock. They sell the close. Due to the miracle of the HFT...they can sell the close...any amount of stock, to themselves, the short side of their book, their offshore subsidiary, their dark pool...and the market magically takes all the selling in stride.
And any carry over from one session...well, it is probably in some Fed account as collateral on a zero interest loan, the proceeds being used to arb some fucking shopping mall somewhere.
The market is so broken, it no longer responds to fundamentals...and neither does it respond to the supply/demand of shares. And when you finally wrap your head around that second part, then you will no longer worry about some HFT fuck reading ZH...because you know that real capital will not form up in this market. And while the HFT game is a finely tuned gig...it will ultimately collapse from lack of capital formation.
This is why, of course, the market fears all political candidates that are not of the status quo [tea party]. If this market lost its Bernanke bucks, it would be cut in half in hours.
So read on HFT crooks. I'm not bothered in the least. The clock is ticking and the bell tolls for thee.
@Cdad
Well said.
damm straight.
Exactly...hey HFT traders listening in- TICK TOCK TICK TOCK motherfukers!
There is no market
In the past, I definately noticed this with silver. When silver was getting plastered all over the headlines on ZH--and rightly so and for all the right reasons--it's like some huge entity would pick up the information and slam silver down hard. in fact, this was never so true when Eric sprott writes and does and mega-bullish piece on silver coupled with ZH pieces and it was inevitable silver would get litterally bitch slammed the following days.....
it's all the more reason to be vastly bullish on silver. It's a huge problem for TPTB and they know it....it wouldn't suprise me at all if the HFT's are using the information and running the gamma beta.
That can be ended with a "set of articles" on ZH with wildly different stories of vastly unrelated sectors and competeing investing scanarios, such as silver, the dollar carry trade, and the real asset classes. Certianly there is a combo that will make the HFT's annilate each other when they try to "frontrun their "specality?. Let the "bots do their stuff and undermine themselves.
If that is happening, then the "manipulation" can be "manipulated".
We have been where market fundamentals don't matter for over 2.5 years.
Anybody still wondering if fundamentals maybe no longer matter must have slept thru the last few years.
Exactly. I was thinking the same thing. Like today when the "word" was thrown about that China was going to bail out Europe with an hour left in trading. Leaving the market on a bizarrly positive note for the close.
I haven't heard the phrase 'pent up demand' from the MSM bobble heads recently... Consumers are still risk off.
Bankrupt debt consumers are just busting at the seams to buy lots more crap I'm sure.
Even "unexpectedly" has been unexpectedly dropped in usage? WTF? Will 'rough patch' go the way of "green shoots"?
Rough Patch". Used in the Stephen King movie Dolores Claiborne. Been around a spell, maybe it will outlast green shoots, which I don't think ever made it to a movie.
When it becomes ok, even smart for Joe and Jane to keep their old cars for even one more year, you suddenly have massive global overcapacity. When it becomes ok, even smart for Joes and Janes to not take out a lease on a vehicle they can't afford, now you have the nightmare scenario: De-Yuppification!
There are only sketchy contingency plans and sims at NORAD and NATO HQ that address De-Yuppification. It was considered unthinkable (unlike thermonuclear, chemical and biological warfare which have been played out and thought about to death). It is the doomsday scenario
and if joe and jane would match their economic subversiveness with political consciousness, what then? especially considering the sketchy nature of norad's contingency plans.
Yes, that indeed could topple the entire NWO overnight from within (exactly where they never expected it).
There is great danger that Joe and Jane might wake up like Rip Van Winkle and Sleeping Beauty to the reality that there's more than a passing chance they'll never be rich like Donald Trump or be featured on Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous. If that happens there's no telling how many mountains unsold Gucci tassled loafers and Armani suits there would be. And then what? The end of the world as we know it! The horror, the horror
My socks are 5 years old, my car is 11 and my Au is roughly 5 billion years old...
My property is older than your stinking nuggets and it pays me dividends.
It pretends to pay you dividends until it goes to the mathematical head fuck zone where it sucks the divdends back out.
Wow, you must be rich with five billion year's worth of dividends on that stuff.
life is short, for gods sake, treat yourself to some new socks.
It's the only pair he has. Can smell 'em from here.
He's hulk. He's allowed to be smelly.
Pretty sure thats Grubbs you're smelling, don't think my socks make it past Roanoke...
like my car '05 rav 4. notice that the bonds rallied and the stocks rallied? that's a bit different. i'm going with the bonds are right. looking to sell what bill gross is buying before the 21st and ben spoils the dream again.
I have a 96 Geo Metro and it gets 55 to the gallon, have you noticed the newer the car the worst the gas milage is , my freind just bought a 2011 dodge 2500 diesel and he just gets 10 to the gallon .
Who ever marked this down, does not get it.
Hat's off to you sir. I have a Toyota Echo, 2000, 40 mpg. Voted greenest car of 2000. I will drive this thing until the wheels are off it. I could put cash down, right now, on any car I want (ANY). I don't see the point of the fancy car. If I were a mechanic or hobbyist, maybe.
This attitude IS the revolution. I don't need it, I won't buy it.
My 1994 Grand Am was about the last car anyone in my family owned that wasn't rendered 100% useless by a bad alternator...
if that's the case then maybe you should get a car from manufacturers that are well known for producing good quality alternators. good luck bro.
Any chance of replacing the dummies with politicians in the front seats of of a GM factory crash test?
Replace? Isn't that how they secure the nomination?
Channel stuffing in the real world has only limited results.
Year over year, dealers are carrying almost double the inventories...at some point soon the auto plants will have to stop
Let's hope GM goes bust. It will be a shame for all those Chinese workers they hired after the US taxpayers bailed them out. /sarcasm. Scumbags.
I would feel bad for the Americans who still worked for the company at that point. It's a crime that productive jobs are destroyed so the useless banksters can steal just a little more.
Cost of replacement parts for vehicles over 10 yrs old are skyrocketing or out if production.
"They" do not want us to be able to repair our vehicles, but go out and buy new.
Are you saying AAP and AZO are bubbles. The charts look that way when you look at some of their stores canabalizing themselves
just got back from the u-pick-it junk yard for a $10 tail light and a $15 dollar rim for my 98 Tdi jetta getting 49mpg diesel. prices looked pretty cheap to me but of course you need to handle your buisness on your own.
Who is marking this sensible stuff down. If this is "scatterbrains" I want to be more "scatterbrained."
Nice job.
GDP is an absolute number. It will never be negative.
GDP is a made up number. It will never be relevant. Think about it. 6.7 billion people gyrate on the planet for 365 days in a row, and then governments, economists, and douches give everyone grades using random scales like $,€ £, etc.
More nightmares for the global auto makers: they're actually starting the excruciatingly painful process of thinking about designing and selling cars that are "cheap to keep". Ouch! I think we need a suicide prevention team right away
I'm surprised that channel stuffing was not mentioned as auto makers have been loading up dealers with cars
and counting that in their sales even though dealers have not sold them. I'm sure that is one reason that
production will be down because most dealers have no room for more cars and sales are slow.
The Truth?? You're assuming we're in an economy that could tolerate that kind of a shock.
The next Green Initiative to be implemented by the Obama Admonishtration will be bio-degradable vehicles.
They will decay from water, sunlight, wind, and Japanese Nuclear Fallout. Not only will vehicle production jump, aiding the GDP, but a huge number of new jobs and industries will spring up.
New Union Assembly positions.
New Union Corporate Farm Syndicate featuring GMO corn for vehicle structure, eggplant for tires, monster tomato slices for steering wheels, okra specially boiled for the power train rubber bands, and seats made from bales of cotton harvested by the non-union private working class.
It'll be called the 'Vegan Wagon'.
Other job categories growing, as a result, will be public sanitation (to clean up the rotting vegetation); Municipal 'Ass Patchers' to administer Bactine and economic band-aids; 'Sugar Glaziers' to replace windshields after every rain; the possibilities are endless!
They already did that. Cash for Clunkers was just that. America did not recycle the vehicles.
They smashed them up and sent to China who wanted the metal. Just a little unknown fact.
Believe it or not, that is the exact "project" that is waking up a lot of people in my area.
Even those who do not need or want to drive a mid-price used vehicle have kids who want cars, or poorer relatives. After the idiotic "Cash for Clunkers" scheme, all of the reliable used cars have been smashed into junk, and the only options left are almost-new vehicles and rotted out jalopies. There's no such thing as a decent used Buick for $4000-5000 anymore- the people who had those had just enough money to take advantage of the program, but the ones who were driving $500 rust buckets had neither the money nor the credit rating to trade them in. Last time I went to replace a vehicle (I always buy used for cash) I had three choices, and they were all overpriced- ended up with a far newer car than I wanted, and spent more than I intended to- it was that, or spend all my time fixing a junker.
So, now we have used POS deathtraps for $2000. Gee, thanks Mr. Government man.
As I understood the Cash for Clunkers program only the engines were actually trashed (additive in the crankcase). The rest of the vehicle was parted out. That was part of the dealer incentive since they could sell the vehicle with the trashed engine to scrappers. That would lend a lot of parts for general body, drivetrain, and trim use. Engines can be rebuilt if you already had your own in your vehicle.
Yea they shipped all the steel to China, remember that? It was the cornerstone of 'cash fer klunkers' pay China in steel.
You don't understand how the trade deficit screwed shit up. There is actually a neighborhood in california that was FORCED to sue shipping companies because the one way trade between china and california resulted in them stacking so many shipping containers all around thier houses that the sun went down 2 hours too soon and gave rise to a use shipping containers for housing and everything else under the sun market distortion.
in Mexico a shipping container is a condo
I read somewhere, a year or 2 ago, that something like 80% of all the exports leaving Savanah harbor are loaded with scrap going to China.
Mercedes tried bio-degradable wiring harnesses in the mid-90s and it lost them a mint in warranty costs. Detroit is probably stupid enough to fall for it, though.
When the current deployment of a financial scheme that is dependent on the creation, issuance, and appetite for debt can no longer find debt slaves for the "shiny new gadgets". It is over. This system is set to collapse as people have reached their desire to cease maximum production and instead opt for a more simple life. This means less and less debt. Sure there are those who will never stop swiping the Visa. But by in large people are simply getting tired of the debt and tired of the constant fight for financial survival. Tired is the word I hear most often.
$5000 worth of five hour energy for every American adult, that will fix the lazy serfs till the election.
I like it,
Rockstar, RedBull, and Mountain Dew subsidies,
Could lead to a nasty hangover though.
You can thank the corporations who shipped jobs overseas. I know some people think Americans are lazy and will only work for a liveable wage (and not what third world citizens will accept), but the US is consistently the most productive country in the world and corporations slaughtered the income of their consumers for bigger bonuses NOW NOW NOW.
If the douche who heads the Fed would let prices adjust to the market, I think we'll see disinflation then deflation (most of you are thinking "no shit Sherlock").
Ask someone sometime how unemployed Americans are going to afford Chinese junk (at any non-zero price) and provide the demand that all the outsourcing corporations say they're waiting on before they start hiring. Don't expect much of an answer though, it's always easier to change the subject or lob insults.
And on top of that many of the new loans are again subprime. So those cars will return to the dealers in short order. They never learn, not as long as we keep bailing them out.
Nice work dude!
www.madyana.com
Paging Mad Hedge Fund Trader...come in Mad Hedge Fund Trader...
Where's your 3.4% GDP second half going to come from now you tout motherfucker?
Is that a "Bear Claw"
It's going to come from inflation motherfucker.
Jean Claude is IN DA HOUSE!
Why Jean Claude this post?
Poganghoya and Palongawhoya
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuZk29xxyvI
I was simply stating that rapid forced inflations are the next step. People are drumming up the possibility of a concerted gold smash down. That will be an attempt to counterbalance and delay 4 6 8 and 10 percent rapid forced inflations. The swiss euro was just one part of it. It'll have to play out in at least 5 to 8 other currency pairs.
Stay tuned for the oops we missed talent show.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94a_zDaN0bg
I'll buy a brand new car if they give me $20k for my five year old $20k car and I get to drive home in a brand new $20k car.
Considering my car is still worth $15k retail that is only $5000 worth of incentives which is just about what GM is placing on the hood of every new Cruze.
I JUST SOLVED THE INVENTORY PROBLEM!!!!!!
Instead of cash for clunkers its "SWAP YOUR NEARLY NEW RIDE". Instead of destroying the cars that get traded in the Gov just has to pay up to $2500 to match the dealer loss. Everybody wins!!!!!
....... uh I think this plan could actually make it into the brain of a washingtonite, perhaps I should delete the post.
Since neither you nor GM have a machine that actually prints USDs, I'm guessing you can be confident that your idea will not "make it into the brain of washingtonite[s]." And thankfull so.
I think my idea for GM's channel stuffing problems is awsome...just install car compactors at the end of the assembly lines so those cars dont take up near as much space in the dealers lots. Just stack em like bricks.
Maybe each union worker should get a free one instead? We all know they don't get enough compensation already. /sarc
I think GM should take me on as an outside consultant, complete with salary and unlimited flight coupons, hey Ive got to keep an eye on all the other cities fight clubs plus set up coast to coast Project Mayhem somehow.
They could do the same thing that they propose to do with underwater mortgage housing. Rent it.
I like it, Dog. And anyway, if we stack 'em up tight like bricks, it leaves more room for the unicorns to graze.
And shit golden skittles (1/20th oz).
At work we have a board where you are supposed to post where you are located if not in the hangar workin on the aircraft. One day I put down " Out chasing a skittle-pooping reindeer". ;-) Everyone, and I mean everyone, asked me what I meant by that. I just told them to read Zero Hedge for a long enough time, the answer will come to you.
Somehow I doubt any of them have bothered to do so. :-(
I used to work at a GM supplier, they raped us so bad that we were taping dollar bills to the parts, we used to joke it would better to put the parts in the dumpster and save the shipping costs so we could turn a profit on the parts.
So you can buy one of the 43 or so Volt's sold this year?
Just trying to lighten up the joint......
since it turned out that real estate, especially houses were/are depreciating assets, maybe they could securitize another depreciating asset, ie cars.
Securitze car loans and bundle them into bonds, then split them into tranches and sell them to pension funds in Iceland.
I smell a bubble, anyone got lloyd Blankfein's number handy?
sounds like a short squeeze coming on thursday since in some strange way, QE3 will make this better and a great rally will ensue.
Now that everyone thinks QE3 is coming AND it will save us, I give the half life of benefit from it about 30 minutes... just long enough for algos to dump everything they got.
Less is what we all need. Less not more, a lot less, for a long time.
We have the wrong economic system for that, so we need an economic system that works when things get less, not more.
Hmmm. That's gonna' create problems, innit'?
This is my philosopy too, scale down, decrease stress. I think many see TPTB, TBTF, and others not downsizing at all. It is hard for them to take the bait and decide that their life will be of higher quality when fat cat's are having none of it. "If they get theirs, I want mine," is the meme.
I would agree, the only problem is if we all just purchased what we need and only what we need, the economy would contract dramatically, putting yet more people out of work. We need our manufacturing back and solid monetary system, without both we are doomed to failure.
Yeah, I'm getting pretty damned tired of talking heads saying that the working serfs need to make do with alot less because the idle rich and their pet politicians so royally fucked everything up. Honest money and domestic manufacturing would solve all of this and more so of course neither will ever happen.
To maintain standard of living, production in the real economy must be maintained. Likewise to increase standard of living production must be increased. This requires capital. Capital comes from saving, not consuming all you produce. Using steel to produce factories instead of cars. Using lumber to build warehouses instead of houses. It's called misallocation of resources by the Austrians.
We're already consuming more than we produce. Zero % interest rates & printing more paper money kills savings & promotes more consumption.
Who's holding interest rates at 0% & printing more paper money? The Keynesian Bernanke. He's the reason the real economy isn't growing.
Who's got all the new printed money? The banks. Bernanke is lending to them at 0% & paying 2.5% on their reserves. The banks are holding on to all the freshly printed paper money to cover up their massive losses on the stupid home loans they made with OPM. Otherwise they'd all be broke.
Etc.
Pretty straight forward.
Amen, sasebo.
1. reduce trade deficit;
2. stop speding money we don't have;
3. encourage savings;
4. encourage capital investment instead of wasteful spending.
H2 looks bleak since little of this is beging done.
When people start living in cars, new cars will cost more. Get it? Trickle down...
Yes
Debt markets dwarf and push equity markets
Bonds up; CAC & HSI down > -4%
Anyone buying the China bailout of Italy fairy tale may be rudely awakened with a margin call
You forgot the Bitchez after margin call?
(NEVER, EVER, EVER ANSWER A MARGIN CALL, SELL SOMETHING FIRST, BITCHEZ!
People betting all-in that the economy has no place to go than UP? I guess people still just dont get it, we're in a blowout depression, there are no jobs so no amount of free printed up money can make a job which they say requires $375,000 per 1 job...WTF this is insanity if people are betting the farm that the economy has to shoot up from here, well theyre screwed. And theyll know it very soon.
Hehe. They sure are. As are the American people (or at least 98%). The worst of it all is that there has been zero restructuring of what went wrong. The rotting corpses will act as a drag brake forever until they actually are allowed to fail. Or: the alternative: we drift toward fascism: a system where government supports private enterprise with favorable prices on and access to labor and raw materials like oil and limits all competition. Profits are held private while taxpayers support the companies. Forever.
What do you mean "drift towards?" Sounds like we're pretty much there already. Just a difference of degree...
It's 375,000 per job. 20 thousand for the job. 355,000 for management fees.
Cocksucking manipulators. So much for the free market. I am beginning to think this is some kind of Hegelian dialectic, as it's so fucking blatantly rigged.
Its ass raping of a nation, and most people dont even have any clue.
Like Cdad says they have to make sure its all destroyed before they pull the rug out the final time, then most all people will just be begging them for food, helpless.
Clarity. Looking closely.
It's all part of a Hegelian Dialect.
Everything.
As long as egos prevail.
The whole basis of the Dialectic.....
"Stay Red Pilled, My Friend"tm
One through nine, no maybes, no supposes, no fractions. You can't travel in space, you can't go out into space, you know, without, like, you know, uh, with fractions, okay? What are you going to land on – one-quarter, three-eighths? What are you going to do when you go from here to Venus or something?
There's only love and hate. You either love somebody or you hate them.
All of the problems that we suffer in the U.S. today can be solved with 10,000 feet of rope.
I don't think that is enough.
Can I pay my taxes with GM shares at the $33 that O'Bama sold them for?
Someone takes a haircut on some mortgage bonds and the Feds are all over it, sueing the issuers.
How do I get my money back on the GM offering where it was the govt. that scammed me?
Contact Negrodamus maybe he'll do another market open speech about it.
heh he he heh
So why did you pay $33 for GM? Or are you just a whinger blaming everything on O'Bama? Sounds like the latter.
Due diligence is a good thing. Government didn't scam you any more than if you bought S&P at 40X PE in '99-2000. You scammed yourself. But I washed a nice clean hanky for you, so you'll feel better.
Blaming O'Bama is pretty funny if you spent your own money. If you already owned shares, well you should be kissing O'Bama on the lips that you have anything left. But I guess that's a bit too abstruse.
We monkeys are so fucking pathetic. Our leaders hope we buy more cars to help our economy recovery. But we won't have enough oil to drive them in less than 10 years. Our remaining precious capital should be spent on things that will make our lives a little better when oil is scarce.
I vote for free bourbon. At least we can drink up while the country turns to a pile of shit like the Russians could. They got rotgut vodka all they wanted. Costs nothing to make, so why not. Hey Nogrodamus can a mahfuka at least get some drinks on up in here?
LOLOLOLOLOL!
A Time Machine.
Rioting in Chile injures 50, mostly cops. The people are starting to turn and kick ass on the riot police.
Chile - Rioting Injures 50 - Mostly Police Injured - YouTube
80 percent of the population of the planet.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35TbGjt-weA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVbIG5rXtTM&feature=related ...hard times coming down.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcPQz9qsWeQ Bad News
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmZWfNUZBq4 I Hate Fords
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq2kcgzsLkk ...and that blood sucking Blacula
...lol
It's so bad you gotta laugh.
zirp will fix this. lulz
The sky is still intact, chickenz.
Lumber futures are suggesting that the end of the world may be postponed.
Those robot programs that rule the street are a little weary of the 24x7 screaming about eurofreeze and worthless uncle buck
Small-business index declines in August: NFIB
Ford exec says Europe sales to remain flat in 2012
Australian business confidence drops in August
IEA cuts 2011, 2012 oil demand forecast
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