And Now, For Some Semblance Of Sanity, Here Is One Hour Of Hugh Hendry
After today's ridiculous move in the market, which brings back memories of either August 2007, March 2008, the reaction after the Tarp vote (the successful one), August 2011, when the market gyrated by 400 points on a daily basis, and many more bear market rallies, we hope to restores some semblance of normalcy by presenting the following series of clips all from Hugh Hendry speechs at the LSE's Alternative Investments Conference earlier this year. Must watch, because when everyone loses their mind, listening to some common sense is the best remedy.
Part 1, in which he discusses the generational shifts in attitudes towards leverage, concluding "Really I should be attending the Young Farmers Society as opposed to the LSE"
Part 2, in which he discusses his misgivings for the enthusiasm towards China, noting that "if you're spending money without the intent of any economic return, then you're spending money poorly". This is particularly notable after earlier today China explicitly warned that it does not want to be seen as the dumb money. Sorry China, if you look around the table and you don't see the dumb money, you are it:
Part 3, in which he denotes his views on currencies: "I think the Yen could appreciate greatly, I also think the dollar could appreciate greatly... you actually create a shortage of yen and dollars in an environment where asset prices are falling... that's all a precursor to then wanting to buy oneTouch Nikkei calls at 40'000, 50'000, 60'000..."
Part 4, in which he busts the bubble of anyone who claims they can predict anything: 'We spend so much time, resources and money trying to see the future - really we're spending money trying to delude ourself. You have no chance of seeing the future, it's better to recognise that'
and finally Part 5, in which he does an amusing word association game:
h/t GreshamsLaw
(29 votes)
»
- Login or register to post comments
- 37104 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
Similar Articles You Might Enjoy:
- Huge Year For Hugh Hendry's Anti-China Fund
- Hugh Hendry Fund Soars 40% YTD As China Sinks
- Hugh Hendry: "If There Was A Way To Short Obama, I Would"
- Hugh Hendry Channels Irony And Paradox In His Latest Financial Outlook
- Hedge Funds On The Defensive As Hugh Hendry Sees 80% Reduction In Size Of Industry
Finally! Couldn't attent the conference, so glad it's on Youtube!!!
Panic recommended to all of you!
What, me worry?
Hugh Hendry should be worried. He owned a lot of European Soverign CDS in his portfolio
A couple days ago Merkel threatened europe with war if her europroject was not bailed out.
When will the enlightened democracies of europe learn that appeasement does not work with the dark lord of Mordor?
J.R.R. Tolkien warned us about germany in his epic Lord of the Rings. Sadly, few readers are able to understand his true message and can't get past the elves and hobbits.
He has elves and hobbits in the story? I gotta think deeper...
no knuckles, there is no need to think deeper
you might injure yourself
On the contrary: you may injure yourself by not thinking deeper about today's upward explosion in equities, PMs and materials (see XLB for one example), which together may be viewing the 50% greek haircut as the beginning of the end of wasteful government taxing, borrowing and non-productive spending.
My screens say today's upside markets may be abruptly discounting the potential employment and earnings gains that may result from getting government out of the way of a business recovery.
Today's euro bad-greek-debt haircut principles may soon be seen to apply to worldwide legacy debt hangovers in piigs, u.s. and all countries whose bankers and administrators willingly fell victim to decades of unsustainable credit-binge debt-growth economics.
DJIA, SPX and NAZ stock indices heading to 15,000, 1500 and 3000, and metals recovering to AU $2000, AG $50 and Dr. COPPER 4.50, and higher, will confirm the upcoming power of a business recovery freed from decades old tax-borrow-spend government regulatory interference.
Anticipating such a business recovery, in the face of crushing legacy debt and failing top and bottom line business revenues, is certainly a stretch, but discounting is what equity markets do best, if not wisely, but too well.
Are you drunk?
I think Hopium is the new high. In a few months, Hohohopium.
The downer is called NoHopium.
ORI
An Indian Tries the Blues
Cut back some on the peyote dosage. Either that or just take a break entirely.
franzpick:
I gave you a +1 for this, but you need to make it clearer that the money to prop up the stock market, PMs and commodities will come from bonds, otherwise people will not understand why it's happening.
e.g. People lose faith in governments, so they shift money out of bonds and into private assets (especially gold, silver and the stock market).
If the governments can arbitrarily cut your bond value in half, and you can't insure it with CDS, you're going to want to put it somewhere they can't touch it.
Neoliberalism has failed even to come close to, let alone achieve, the
growth rates of the golden age of Keynesianism in the 1960s (Harvey 2006).
"which raises
a serious question about how it has maintained legitimacy in the
face of its own failed raison d’être – to ensure wealth for all through
market efficiency.
Thus it is pertinent to consider the core contradiction
underpinning the seeming collapse of neoliberalism:
the
extent to which the current crisis is tied to the very foundations on
which neoliberalism was built,
namely the expansion of finance
capital and the associated housing and stock market booms of
the 1990s and 2000s."
"There is a terrible irony in the fact that neoliberal policies of
privatization, marketization and liberalization over the last 30+
years.
have produced proceeds with a monetary value (€1.3 trillion)
that is only twice the recent bank bail-outs by the US and European
governments (see Hall 2008: 6)."
"Who then benefited from this economic order?
We can
point fingers at the bankers, as government have found it politically
expedient to do, but
we have also to acknowledge that the
financialization of the global economy has gone hand in hand with
property booms that have effectively enrolled citizens in the
expansion of neoliberalism –
a windfall largely limited to citizens in
the Global North, it must be stressed.
For example, Matthew
Watson (2008) argues that as individuals have been incorporated
into the British housing market, which was (and still is) dependent
upon ever-increasing house prices, they have been remade politically
as ‘monetary conservatives’, (TEA PARTY) more concerned with inflation than
welfare spending. More generally, Stuart Hall (2003: 10) argues that
‘a new neoliberal common-sense’ has ‘colonized’ civil society."
"What is evident in this mess is that the conceit at the heart of
neoliberal thought has been exposed.
The very idea that markets are
self-organizing, efficient and liberating is no longer credible, but
illustrates the extent to which neoliberalism
– as shorthand for
market-like rule –
is an economic, political and ideological project
pursued by certain groups (such as governments and corporations)
to construct a reality that is perceived to be founded in the inherent
properties of economic markets.
This circular reasoning has
replaced any sense of what we ought to do to achieve democratic
goals and ambitions with a logic built on the perception of the
inherently good and essential qualities of markets.
Thus morality
and ethics have been turned right way up in response to the ‘natural
law’ of economic exchange in which the rich can buy more freedom
than the poor."
I have to disagree with you.
And so do I.
And me too!
You've really hit the nail on the head there Akak!
We concur as well.
I think that settles the issue.
I do not always agree with you but no one can doubt your entertainment value. I will drink beer with you and buy!
Thanks for the thumbs-up CY!
I does what I cans.
So do I!
And me too!
me too silver
New theory man... memory foam
Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven
http://www.wtnh.com/dpp/news/crime/police-remove-8.8g-of-crack-cocaine-from-man%27s-butt
That's just how he rolls.
Speaking of rolling as the article says, 'After today's ridiculous move in the market' one can surely say it was to burn shorts. Still 100% Cash.
Patience is a good thing in crooked markets. About 15 years ago I took a free 2 day class about markets and how stocks work and why.
Actually they wanted to sell me their stuff. Did not buy. But they did offer some great fundamentals that are almost certain.
They taught stuff like principals, one being that the market will cause as much pain and take as much money as it can.
Another thing they taught was how to not be caught in a market trap. It focused on "Gaps". They said that almost all the time the market
will return to the level where a "Gap" is and it is a good way to protect yourself and use them for opportunities.
Well today, I ask, did the market burn any shorts and cause any pain? And in the ramp up, how many stocks were gapped up?
That is why, as tempting as it was I bought shit from Goldman's HFT machines ramp job. Almost every stock that I would consider buying was
gapped up. To me, from that class years ago, this market will cover all those gaps.
Heed the warning that the market on a day like this is a fools rally if your sucked in to the sucking sound of the Squid, Goldman Sachs.
on video 2 :
real estate is not THE ONE market return on China's books
exactly...
agree. french door refrigerator
"As for any inner meaning or 'message', it has in the intention of the author none. It is neither allegorical nor topical. [...] The real war does not resemble the legendary war in its process or its conclusion. If it had inspired or directed the development of the legend, then certainly the Ring would have been seized and used against Sauron; he would not have been annihilated but enslaved, and Barad-dûr would not have been destroyed but occupied. Saruman, failing to get possession of the Ring, would in the confusion and treacheries of the time have found in Mordor the missing links in his own researches into Ring-lore, and before long he would have made a Great Ring of his own with which to challenge the self-styled Ruler of Middle-earth. In that conflict both sides would have held hobbits in hatred and contempt: they would not long have survived even as slaves."
- J.R.R. Tolkien, Foreword to The Lord of the Rings, second edition
I had this precise passage in mind when I read that silly tripe from the caveman above. What's funny is I've seen Ax go after both Jews and the Germans. Lol. Tolkein's forward is so spot on it's amazing. Hobbit genocide/ (debt) enslavement would have definitely been discussed at the council of Elrond lol.
That is an amazing capture of information from J.R.R.T.
Thanks!
fully agree... electric fireplace
Hobbits are the 99%.
But the germans build such cool cars.
Talking about allegories, I once bought a BMW which had tires made in Israel.
Did you hear about the new Israeli tires called Firestein's?
They stop on a dime and pick it up!
What's the diffrence between a cactus and a BMW?
A cactus has its pricks on the outside!
The Jews have two things going for them: they are thrifty and there's Genesis 12. Yes, I have some Cohen a few generations back!
why cant they keep Jews in jail?
They eat lox
And for all the latent and patent anti-semites on the board, feel free to substitute "Wall Street Bankers" for "Jews"
and great quality too walk in freezer
I want to get invaded by big breasted beer garden maidens.
I'll have what you're having.
You mean like my wife?
http://i-sharepix.myplanet.square7.net/view.php?filename=570PreciousMeta...
http://i-sharepix.myplanet.square7.net/view.php?filename=367cups1s.jpg
Amazing that idiots junked you.
Rubbish, learn to read before commenting on what she said
a little light...if it's coming from a guy named Gandalf...goes a long way indeed. For all the others it's just heat lightening.
Is Merkel and elf or hobbitt? I'm confused.
Merkel is a Dwarf talking about cutting off her nose to spite her face. She also talks about how Elves are less then Dwarves so it's all good.
Actually, Tolkien was a Catholic who was writing Catholic themes and beleived he was not writing about Germany. But The Lord of the Rings sure does read that way in retrospect. Is it more important what the auhor says about his own work or what subsequent generations say?
Surely Obama is Saruman, a finger of the claw of Mordor (Wall Street), a traitor of many colors who rose to prominence partly through the power of his voice.
I would love to see williambanzai7's take on that!
There are no Jews in Mordor, you could be on to something.
Elves and hobbits? I thought those were Eurofags.
Another hell of an interview...Bert Dohmen of the Wellington Letter..about Bank of America and JP Morgan shifting 154 trillion dollars worth of losses when derrivitives start imploding to the U.S. taxpayer.
http://www.traderview.com/Global_Insights.cfm#dohmen3
Has this been approved by the Ministry of Truth and Propaganda?
Greetings,
Does Money Equal Debt?
For large data we can take advantage of the finite speed of propagation and observe that the data is in effect small if restricted to a ball of sufficiently small radius. Consequently we can use Theorem 1 to obtain.
Theorem 1: Money = Debt
A critical part in the proof of our result is the choice of the space-time
function spaces where we look for the solutions. The longer this goes on the worse things will get. There are two ingredients required in the definition of our spaces, namely the structure of the dyadic pieces and the Besov type norm used for the summation of the dyadic pieces. We use the notations (M/D) for the space-time variables and (_F.U., _ ) for the corresponding Fourier variables.
The power of D indicates how many derivatives we add (i.e. n/2). To be precise, the functions in the space F are uniquely determined modulo polymomials.
To resolve this ambiguity we restrict the space F to functions which
have limit 0 at infinity.
I want to now keep the notation simple for the lay people and imbeciles, please allow for a small increase in the size of deficit and off balance sheet equations as they are transitory, and counterfactual.
The support of the Fourier transform of F_ functions). Now we use Theorem 3 To decompose the F_ elements into a component with Fourier transform supported Within a distance ? from the cone and a component at least O(?) away From the cone, stay away from the cone for god’s sake.
Since both fixed point arguments give continuous ambiguous dependence on the interdependent data, we can now solve this problem. Do I have your attention?
We can argue that the solutions in the F/U situation is that we have produced nothing and spent everything.
We need a strong limit of smooth solutions to the equation.
I don’t think anything could be clearer,
Sincerely,
Dapper.
I can be reached @ 911-455-9899
P.S. Is the above comment any less farcical than the crap the financial leaders in Europe are releasing on a daily basis?
Dapper Dan this sounds more like my posts :) But mine are simple and have been understood now for four thousand years. A pyramid, a square, a circle. It's geometry and the tools we build like a government, a building or a computer. These tools reflect our accelerating evolution.
You can put these shapes to numbers if you want too like 333, 666 for structures/tools of their day or apply them to today like 3333-4444. The numbers/structures/tools mean the same thing. Only the priests of finance of the last 250 years has convinced you to ignore evolution and their symbolic representation in numbers.
4d world. We are 99.1% of the way there. Math doesn't lie we juat want to keep pretending emotion can overcome reality. And my number is 603-953-3388. I am an American thanks.
Sold FCX today, Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold mining, at $42.75 on the close; bought on Oct. 4th. @$30.39 at 8:42AM HST. Aways like to see Hugh Hendry.
Would it be possible to amend the U.S. Constitution to allow for a Scotsman to run for president?
Turd, anybody can run for president. And looks like most anyfuckingbody who runs can be seated as well, regardless.
No, you have to be a natural-born U.S. citizen to be president.
Guess that precludes Cesarean Section?
If a Kenyan ran and won, why couldn't a bagpiping highlander?
'cause white men can't run?
Can't run, can't dance, what are they good for Knuckles?
ORI
Taxing
Really, now. When did that change?
No need, because as we all know, no true Scotsman would run for President.
aye.
but vice-president now.....ach, therrrrr'es a job!
as opposed to the kenyan we currently have?
and his kenyensian economics
100% agree frameless shower doors
"a political model which has pure groundings in [Monetarist Neoliberal] economics" = Eu Fail
failure of the purely quantitative over the absolute rejection of the qualitative, simply for the maximization of unjust enrichment via unlawful contracts (TARP, LISBON etc), control fraud, regulatory capture, pure rank fraud at every single level of society.
I fucking hate optimists.
From Europe at Bay: In The Shadow of US Hegemony Cafruny & Ryner 2007
The successful launch of the euro initially quieted skeptics who had
warned that a monetary union bereft of political union was inherently
unstable (see, for example, Milward, 1994; Anderson, 1997).
Yet, by 2004,
a prolonged period of stagnation and mass unemployment compelled
first Germany, then France, and finally Italy to breach the walls of the
Growth and Stability Pact, thereby exposing the very contradiction of
which the skeptics had warned.
The so-called reform of 2005 rendered the pact,
in the words of the Financial Times, “practically worthless”(2005a: p. 12),
revealing underlying conflicts of interest among the member states in the eurozone and provoking demands for the renationalization of monetary policy in some quarters,
amid predictions of impending collapse.1
notwithstanding the United States’ own cascading political
and economic difficulties, by the middle of 2005 the European project
appeared stillborn. Summing up the prevailing sense of malaise, Dominique Moisi (2005: p. 17) outlined three bleak scenarios that contrasted strikingly with the optimism that had accompanied the launch of the euro.
Europe might become a “decadent Venice,” mired in a “collective
acceptance of decay by an entire continent,”
or a Swiss combination of “selfishness and provincialism.”
But Perhaps even more disconcerting was Moisi’s third scenario,
“the revenge of nationalism.”
Former EU commissioners Franz Fischler and Christian Ortner warned that the EU might become “the first empire to go down before it was founded” (Parker and Simonian, 2006: p. 7).
Eminent Belgian economist Paul De Grauwe
stated flatly that “The monetary union will collapse . . . not next year, but on a time frame of 10 or 20 years” (Kubosova, 2006: p. 1). Europe’s leaders proclaimed a period of “reflection” because they could agree on little else.
Ironically, the one area on which virtually all Europeans are united
is the desire for greater independence from the United States. Yet, growing political fragmentation is making it more difficult to resist the United States’ embrace.
The multiple and overlapping economic and political
crises indicate that the nations of Europe, both collectively and individually, are condemned to experience a long period of turbulence and parochialism.
Indeed, even the Schadenfreude with which Washington’s congenitally europhobic neoconservatives observe Europe’s deepening disarray and inability to mount a coherent challenge to US hegemony is muted by fears that a more fractious European continent will be prone to instability and unable to assist in the United States’ imperial project.
https://www.rienner.com/uploads/47e2942e8d5f9.pdf
well we do know one thing a fractious eu still on point w us imperial project. see libya. thank #NATO. hegemony light if not quite soft. and people wonder why we have bases in italy,spain, france, germany uk.
this site has become unusable for coments
Durden, you stole my Hendry Link...
...cool
part 5 is great
it is.
Still, did he contradict himself correctly shorting Iceland for their mid decade policies but claiming it would take a meteor to take out our fiat currency.....? I know we're the empire but math is math
0 + gun = modern day finance
depends what you mean by a meteor - if you mean a real meteor then not likely; if you mean a china crash then there's several meteors around...
http://moneylaunderingconference.com/2012/conference-at-a-glance.asp#
for those of you who like to know more..Today is the last day to register for the 10th Annual OffshoreAlert Conference at our Pre-Sale Rate of $1,195, a $500 discount on our Standard rate of $1,695!
Click Here to Register Now and SAVE $500
This Exclusive Pre-Sale offer ends at 11:59 P.M. EST on October 26
(That's Today!).
The OffshoreAlert Conference presents the single best opportunity to share, learn and participate in an independent and credible forum on Offshore Financial Centers.
Covering the latest issues and must-know information on OFCs, The 10th Annual OffshoreAlert Conference will take place at The Ritz-Carlton, South Beach in Miami Beach, Florida on April 29 - May 1, 2012.
Don't miss this exclusive opportunity to get the lowest possible rate for the 'must-attend' event on Offshore Financial Centers. Register Now and SAVE $500.
See you there!
Country Report No. 11/312: Benin: Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25304.0
I assume that when Ben drops the money from the helicopter its' already been cleaned.
http://www.businessinsider.com/marine-to-police-you-did-this-to-my-broth...
MARINES TO OAKLAND POLICE: 'You Did This To My Brother'
Marines around the world are outraged by the injuries inflicted by police on Scott Olsen at Tuesday's Occupy Oakland protests. Olsen is in a medically-induced coma after getting hit in the head by a police projectile.
The following picture is taken from the Reddit thread "How I feel, as a United States Marine, about what occurred in Oakland."
This man is not alone. In the five hours since the thread went up there have been over 600 comments.
No, no, son... in the 'new normal' world it'll be the police that sue Scott Olsen and any other protestors...
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/national/2011/10/new-york-police-union-th...
... Welcome to the Brave New World.
And we'll have to pay for the bullets too.
Pfft! We already pay for the bullets, and the cars, and the kevlar, and the uniforms, and the pepper spary ,and the tasers, and the teargas, and the shields, and the batons, et al; through our taxes.
Essentially, we're equipping them to combat us and keep us compliant in our servitude.