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And Now, For Some Semblance Of Sanity, Here Is One Hour Of Hugh Hendry
After today's ridiculous move in the market, which brings back memories of either August 2007, March 2008, the reaction after the Tarp vote (the successful one), August 2011, when the market gyrated by 400 points on a daily basis, and many more bear market rallies, we hope to restores some semblance of normalcy by presenting the following series of clips all from Hugh Hendry speechs at the LSE's Alternative Investments Conference earlier this year. Must watch, because when everyone loses their mind, listening to some common sense is the best remedy.
Part 1, in which he discusses the generational shifts in attitudes towards leverage, concluding "Really I should be attending the Young Farmers Society as opposed to the LSE"
Part 2, in which he discusses his misgivings for the enthusiasm towards China, noting that "if you're spending money without the intent of any economic return, then you're spending money poorly". This is particularly notable after earlier today China explicitly warned that it does not want to be seen as the dumb money. Sorry China, if you look around the table and you don't see the dumb money, you are it:
Part 3, in which he denotes his views on currencies: "I think the Yen could appreciate greatly, I also think the dollar could appreciate greatly... you actually create a shortage of yen and dollars in an environment where asset prices are falling... that's all a precursor to then wanting to buy oneTouch Nikkei calls at 40'000, 50'000, 60'000..."
Part 4, in which he busts the bubble of anyone who claims they can predict anything: 'We spend so much time, resources and money trying to see the future - really we're spending money trying to delude ourself. You have no chance of seeing the future, it's better to recognise that'
and finally Part 5, in which he does an amusing word association game:
h/t GreshamsLaw
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Speaking of semblance, Rick Santelli compared ( eur/usd), short covering to the (eur/aud ) trade. Yes, there was a significant amount of short covering in the (eur/usd) trade, however I argue his comparison was a bit skewed... First of all the dollar index has fallen over 5 handles this month and I'm still looking for the reason. The qe banter didn't start until last week and is a bunch of dis-information in my opinion. For the most part I like Mr. Santelli.
The ( eur/aud) trade is well known to traders as a ( RISK OFF trade). Comparing short covering to to strength in the AUD in a ( RISK ON trade), is akin to selling dynamite in a swimming pool! The Australian dollar being the dynamite on the risk side! Santelli should compare the euro to some thing that has a more realistic value. Perhaps it's cousin GBP, or the SNB's (chf)... Now that it is being pegged. Comparing the euro to the aud which has traded almost 14 BIG MOVES in a month is not applicable.
I can't see or predict the future...but I sure as hell can make an educated guess based on how far down the wrong road we already are.
rumors and estimates move the markets higher, while fundamentals cease to have any role in this brave new world, the lower you set the bar for progress and growth (say a 2.5% bump in largely inflationary spending) the more pumping, hyping, lying and spinning becomes necessary in order to sell the lower standards as the equivalent to the once reality based fundamentals. as today proves the PTB's have this down to an absolute art form, a large scale rip on...absolutely nothing of relevance.
today was the central planners wet dream made reality...and raises for me an important and disturbing question. what can those of us who have chosen the red pill over the blue do when now it appears that the PTB's can not only bend, twist, distort and manipulate information in whichever way suits them best, but can also create, to a certain destructive degree a whole false reality? even if the illusions they peddle only last for a short time before shattering under the weight of unavoidable and eventually inescapable economic gravity, the damage they can cause in the meantime will most likely be most devastating to those who can afford it least.
chaos ensues from the bottom up, people demand "somebody do something" and are willing to give up most anything to secure order, safety, food, shelter and normalcy. we've already seen what Americans will give up in the post 9/11 world, the bigger the crises the more one can take away, the quicker they can take it.it has been said that "given the right crises, the people will not only accept the new world order, they will demand it" regardless of what the NWO is to you, it really isn't that much of a stretch to see that elements of it are falling into place right before our eyes.
so, while I can't see the future I'm guessing I won't be needing shades...
dont get me wrong Hugh is a sharp operator with cool insights... but when he sits with his clients... he will certainly let them know what he does not share on tv... insights for clients ... and insights for joe public... Hugh certainly knows the difference ... my bet ... he got plenty of the ultimate hedge.... physical metals.....
I'm not sure he does. In previous videos he said he doesn't like gold, so he's been wrong on that so far this year. I'm not sure when this youtube clip was filmed but it looks like he was wrong on his call for UK inflation to moderate. He states that he likes Mervyn King and that call for inflation to moderate is straight out of King's mouth. How can anyone like King whilst King rapes UK pensioners and savers to save an insolvent banking system? Don't get me wrong though, I agree that Hugh is a smart operator and he has my respect.
HH notes gold @ 1400, which indicates vid v late 2010 to mid-2011.
Taking some profits isn't a bad idea either. I bought back some BAC puts today that I sold two weeks ago after the price dropped to nearly zero. Looking forward to shorting them again, but, probably at a lower strike next time.
what can those of us who have chosen the red pill over the blue do
First financially, go gold. It's the only way to protect your buying power.
Next politically: just scream. It's the only way to be heard. Keep in mind the majority still have their heads buried in the sand. But that doesn't mean they're stupid and don't realize there's cause for concern. What will turn them besides fear and desperation is a common cause.
He has some interesting philosophies. But I don't agree with a lot of the stuff he does. He seems to think the system itself is not at huge risk and the rules won't be changed right under him. So he continues to use leveraged paper with counterparties. Or, like last year, when he thought shorting US bonds was a good idea even while that market's structure was obviously being changed by Fed propping that will probably never stop. His eye is not on the right ball.
I mean, does he really expect a CDS on a sovereign is ever going to pay out? For myself, I am pretty damn sure they will change the rules long before they make Buffet fork over money he owes on a CDS his shit companies wrote.
he could have wiped the floor with all his intellectual giant competition by following keiser over the last 6 years.. It does not sound as complex or intellectually satisfying to simply buy physical gold and silver but more than doubly effective... So keep your intellectual bull shit... and feel free to call me one of the tin foil hat brigade.. but i am going to keep on stacking
If TPTB tried to get value for their worthless derivatives, even for the dollar, it can not be done.
The many trillion dollar position in T-bills held by the major nations is kept close to the vest now for the express reason that they are valueless and can not be exchanged for anything. The very action (velocity) of exchanging them would render them worthless.
If they were exchanged for *physical* gold, gold would not be available for them quite quickly.
As a result *no further* printing of fiat is required to achieve so-called hyperinflation. All that is required is an understanding of the true value of the large "vaults" of fiat bills.
In that moment, they are worthless.
Hugh is charming and entertaining, but has an average track record. Is he worth 2 and 20? Not when you can watch him for free on YouTube.
When he was frequently on CNBC, I tracked his record (as of other pundits) and it was not very good. The guy is definitely very entertaining and IMHO could make great carrier in show business (compare with monkeys like Jim Cramer). Notice, however, that he is neither Gold bug nor inflationist (rather on deflation side) and even see Dollar on a strong side.
Damn, i'm just at a loss.
Smart guy telling a part of the truth and there is no way I can make my life better.
9to5
I see it, ......even understand what he is telling
.........
Hendry will end up in a trash heap or dustbin
Unless he learns to follow the tape
Gotta be quick on your feet to go from bull to bear, back to bull again
It is the key to survival, especially if you trade for a living
Otherwise, just another talking head spewing forth opinion without a performance record to back it up.
And RobotLemming pokes his head out of his hole in the ground!
Spoken like the truly blind, follow-the-herd, momo-chasing lemming that you are.
What the fuck are you even doing on this site, anyway, you kneejerk conformist troll?
Go join leo quislingasskiss in ZH exile, where you belong.
Actually if you collect and read all his posts it is most obvious that IT is purely a troll. And sounds very much like a person from MarketWatch posting here.
Robo is running around saying how great the Titanic is, and everybody else is shit for worrying about that it might sink. He is shilling for the Rich passengers who intend to fleece all the normal passengers before they steal the life boats.
RoboMonkey feels he is clever and smart for shilling for the rich passengers on the Titanic believing they will give him a seat in a life boat. Of course they leave him to breath icey cold water clinging on to his trinkets with the rest of the dumb crowd. He is being played like a puppet, the banksters love this type of lemming, they help gather in all the other lemmings.
I sometimes wonder if RobotLemming's inane, flyby, stock-pumping trollish one-liners are not just Tyler(s) posting incognito and having some fun at our expense, while simultaneously generating ire and increased forum reaction and participation. Much like why I believe leo quislingasskiss was allowed to post as a contributor to this site for so long, despite the obvious (not to say glaring) mismatch of his views with everything else on ZH: to serve as a lightning-rod for righteous indignation, to generate forum activity and seed the discussion with points of contention and debate. I suspect that many larger online forums engage in exactly the same kind of activity, although I think the wisdom (not to mention the integrity) of such possible forum manipulation to be questionable at best.
question: what happens to a CDS when there is a haircut/writedown?
CDO~2 squared. { Truth}>
CDS or derivatives will NEVER trigger anything, only hunger.
almost as hard to watch as the last minutes of Ghadaffi. what is the cameraman's obsession with a 2 shot? who cares about that joker on the right side?
at least the guy behind the IPhone knew what was important in the frame. so, what's so important about this Hendry guy? why should I pay attention if
his first names not Glen?
a local hero on zero hedge?
worked with a guy named Merriwhether once back in the SB days... wisdom to impart? caveat emptor.
ok, here'a a better version of Angie Merkel's scandalous secret tape from the EU Summit with a touch of Greek seasoning tossed in.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSB21EZQNkA
Has anybody listened to the videos!!!! You lazy asshats should listen, before you comment! You wonder why your lives are so pathetic. NO FOLLOW THROUGH!
You have to be English to really understand the snark attached to the young farmers comment. Hint: Young farmers is a drinking club where the rich, privileged and a bit stupid 14-18's get wasted in a barn, and shag while bad disco music blares out. Been to enough of them to experience it first hand - it is a curious mixture of modernity with 2nd world slumming it (mud and cowpats included). His point was (partly) that we need to engage with youth, rather than boring fucktards desperately grasping onto the last remnants of their old order (coupled with "educate them before they get brainwashed into the Capital Markets thinking - shown later in #5 by his referral to thinking rebelliously).
Oh, and you shouldn't miss the dual hits of the Euro German in the imbedded clip telling him he's finished, and his comment that 'I've been banned from doing live interviews unless I'm doing well... I'm not, so I'm doing this".
There was some high level snark in there. I'm not commenting on the economics stuff, because I'm a minnow n all.
I am English, and your post was fantastic!
For shame - Hendry's not English! ;)
oops
+100 troy oz Yen Cross
Now, that was a good comment1 +1
Thanks for the videos Tyler
The blunt, honest truth and reality is why I like Tyler,Nigel and Hugh.They do not run from it,they say it and stick to it.
So appreciated in this world mired down in bullshit.
Interviewer: "Any countries your positive on?"
Hugh: [crickets]
LOL
YOUR = possessive. YOUR fly is undone.
YOU'RE = you are. YOU'RE flying low.
Please... nothing states fuckwittery more clearly than not understanding grammar. [The] Reason? [is]1Because grammar is a hard-wired neuro-cognitive development, and if you don't get taught it between 7/8-11/12 you can never learn it. This marks you as subhuman to the 1% and thus... expendable / exploitable.
One large lesson in nature is that if you're not a predator / dangerous, you learn to camouflage yourself so you appear so. Flailing around and pronouncing your weaknesses causes interested predators to circle.
p.s.
I love the fact that a spell check of "neuro-cognitive" replaces it with "negro-cognitive". Racist much?
And then there is the old "their" vs. "there" vs. "they're" conundrum for the grammatically-challenged.
Not to mention "than" vs. "then"; "would of" for "would've" (palm plant on head for that one); or one of my pet peeves, "I could give a shit", which of course is gibberish, and actually should be "I could NOT give a shit".
And then there is the poor, abused and misused apostrophe ...
Htwa si ouyr pionon wthi pseillng? Mnay poelpl hvae ntocied taht ti sin't ralley ncsceryr ot splle wrdos xectaly ocrrcetly, sa logn as teh gnearla manenig gtes arcorss. Touhgst?
I wood tend two knot agree --- pour spelling can leed won too loose the vary s scents of the khanversashun.
Cna you ctllauay sttae thta you rae blae to fllwoo whta I'm ttmptngaei to say whne I splle thngsi in schu a mnnrae?
Yeah, +1 for the lesson in how well our brains can understand text that is jumbled.
My post was about class and how it effects your pitch. Yours was about how you'll still be understood when a round takes out half your jaw ;)
p.s. Yes, I expected that amount of junks... woo-har.
Nice write. I feel like I'm signing a contract? Please don't shoot me down on Sunday.
Lighter note. ; is the context about ? ex: Trading?
Get a girlfriend.
Or...may be its just a tipeo?
Simmer down English Major.
Seriously? Let me guess - you'd dress-down Bubba for double negatives while he's all dueling banjos on your ass. Wanker.
I can never understand this hostility to proper grammar, or the snarky attacks on those who decry the declining standards of the same --- not to mention the declining standards and levels of education in general, or intelligent thought for that matter. It's almost seems that many of you are proud to be ignorant, or at least to sound or read as if you were.
I for one applaud the pointing out of glaring grammatical errors that should've (not "should of") been left behind in third grade, and am actually embarrassed for many posters here and elsewhere online, who could not compose a proper paragraph if their (not there, not they're) life depended on it. To mistake "your" for "you're" as a mature adult is truly a sign of educational failure at its (not it's) most basic level.
Schmuck Raker
Made me laugh too :>)
That Hendry guy seems like a bit of a dick. He did have some intersting things to say, especialy in the last couple of vids though. I know it wasnt the point, but I don't like him :-/ I'm not an economist or a trader, (No shit :-) just someone who has bought as much gold as I can afford cuz it feels right. Pobably explains why I would rather watch Kyle Bass anyday. Help an amature out here, what was crux of this? I'm gonna hang around and try my best to get up to speed but was he just having a bit of a wank on stage or should I do more homework? Really, it's an honest question. Slightly underwhelmed BITCHEZ!
He has idiosyncratic views that are not mainstream and has made a lot of money for his investors, but he has had some big draw downs. I am not sure these clips did justice to his interesting perspectives.
Yep, all is well in "voluntary land"!
Let's make a deal!
Well, not really a deal but kinda, sorta deal.
The banks, bondholders and Greece "agreed" to a 50% haircut on their debt (which is still probably overvaluing their bonds by 50%) and guess what? This is not a "credit event" (in CDS terms) because it was "voluntary". Well, of course it was "voluntary" on the part of the Greeks because they just effectively reduced their debt owed by 50%. Was it really voluntary by the bondholders?
Well...mandatory is probably a closer word but in today's world, black is a close enough shade to white...right? Of course, because this whole thing is voluntary there is no CDS event trigger so it is all good!
Yep, all is well in "voluntary land"!
No "event", no "trigger", NO PROBLEM!
Well, maybe just a teeny tiny one? So...CDS isn't really a problem (doesn't really exist) because when you are broke and can't pay, "they" will give you money to pay and if it all gets done "voluntarily" (as opposed to by contract) it didn't really happen. Maybe the whole world should "voluntarily" restructure everything and just go on down the road like nothing happened. Actually THIS is exactly what I have been saying for several years, revalue Gold by 10 or even 100 to 1, wipe the debt slates clean and start over with a new currency.
So in essence, what happened with Greece is really "ground breaking" because contract law no longer exists.
Since the CDS did not get triggered with this, CDS truly does not even exist?
If you bought Greek bonds and "hedged" them with CDS, then you really never really had insurance did you? So what does this mean about your other "hedges"? Do they exist? (I have said all along that even if they do exist and that contract law is enforced, no one has the money to make good on them anyway so moot point it is).
So... no one has to make good on CDS, but how do these entities that have "hedged" now treat their hedges? If their bond positions are down, are hedges up to offset? If you are one those dastardly speculators who bought CDS, are you a winner? Can you ever be a "winner? Winner, winner no chicken dinner? I guess this means that if your house burns down to the foundation the insurance company can say it didn't really? Look over there, you have 2 bricks left so it was not a total loss? Is this where all that "new math" back in the '70's led us?
But wait, there's more!
Now the banks will have to write their Greek debt down by 50% right? Well no matter because remember there is something called "CDS" that the banks bought (I presume) a lot cheaper to HEDGE their position, even though they don't get paid they can mark these CDS's back to 100% of bond face value! CDS not triggered, not going to pay, BUT let's put them on our "books" as triggered!
This is great! We can now see what a great thing this is, we just made money on a 50% loss, I love this new math stuff! So do the stock markets, which are up all over the world. Can you imagine what level the markets will get to as this scenario goes down the line? Spain, Portugal and Italy should be worth 2,000-3,000 points each, Britain maybe 5K, France 10K, Germany 25K the ECU another 50K or so, and then the big enchilada the U.S.! The U.S. ought to be worth at least 100,000 Dow points...right? This is good stuff!
What this really is...is complete and total BULLSHIT!
Contract law now no longer exists, losses (gains?) no longer exist, neither does risk. Sort of goes back to what I called "everything is worth nothing" back in 2008. How can you value ANYTHING under these conditions? EVERYTHING moves as the rules get changed to benefit "the house" and the currency itself has no value except that the market gives it through perception, NOTHING is fixed.
Well...except for Gold, Silver and other hard assets. These are the ONLY things that are "fixed" and the "house" is constantly barraging them as "scary investments"!
So what does today's folly really mean? It means that the ECU will give up and print more to keep the game going. It also means that any investors who understand this will vote with their feet and exit. ...But not today! Today the Euro is up...because it is saved! It also means we are that much closer investors figuring out, I mean REALLY figuring it out! How sad, we have truly lived a lie and only now beginning to realize it.
In a nutshell, what we are seeing today (and for many years now), is one gigantic lie. Lie, lie, lie until you can't, then change the rules. When this doesn't work change the laws. When this doesn't work any longer? ...make sure you have real money, food, supplies and loaded firearms to protect same!
"Law, we don't need no stinkin' law!". So much for doing business on a handshake when contracts don't work!
www.lemetropolecafe.com
Very well said.
+1
In a lawless world where the financial oligarchs have raped the people with total impunity it is nice to see them get some of their own medicine, alas only limited to 50% instead of 60%. All derivative naked hedges should be banned made illegal on all types of financial instruments. WS/City/Tax havens/pD balance sheets deeply regulated/curtailed. Contract law should thus only apply to legal bets within a newly redefined financial architecture agreed on a mulitlateral basis world wide, not unilaterally imposed by king $. This one is sheer authorised rape. Its time that this financial page of Pax americana was shot down in flames; like the MIC/Oil monoploy plays, all financed on borrowed money.
So what was ridiculous about this rally? You had a 2 b share increase in short interest; you had 26% bullish concensus; you had negative headlines everywhere; and you KNEW that the solution would me money-printing. Since money-printing is the ultimate Zimbabwe Effect, stocks HAD to go nowhere but NORTH!
Earnings are not as important as LOSING those Federal Reserve Notes before you are using them as fuel a.k.a. Weimar 1921-1923. Stocks always go north in a reflationary backdrop so just BTFD and relax. Market overbought now, of course, so the we made the easy money now going into month-end. I off'd 50% of my stocks bought in late Spetember and now hold only my pm's. The little pm explorers are still trashed so they might catch a decent bid but it will take a BIG discovery to get a bid under 'em.
Buy Buy buy the (big?) F-ing dip!
Why not the Tulip Mania solution?
The Tulip Mania finally ended http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania with individuals stuck with the bulbs they held at the end of the crash—no court would enforce payment of a contract, since judges regarded the debts as contracted through gambling, and thus not enforceable by law.
Bob Prechter opines that the law considers the money you have in a savings account a LOAN to the bank. the bank goes under, you get in line just like everyone else.
truth be you're better off having a big fat loan with these guys because when SHTF they won't be around to collect
so why not the Rape the Savers Solution? which is incidentally just more of the same.
The copy paste thing. Bad Idea! Real Time!
The Greek arrangement completes the arrival of economic anarchy. Rules/laws and their meaning will be invented ands reinvented as they go along to ensure it protects only TPTB (bankers).
Why would anybody invest in sovereign debt when they know if TSHF they will get royaly shafted and their protections rendered void.
Why buy shares in companies in countries that are going into recession or still havent' come out, and in currencies losing their purchasing power. So they print more, shares go up, currency values go down, inflation goes up, you think you are better off? Ha, everybody will be wanting to get out at the same time, as always. The only thing to do now is convert currencies into material things that always remain valuable. Productive land, food, water and hard money.
Mathmatically how can printing money fix anything? It is impossible. The planet is up to its neck and worse in debt, and after all stimuluses and bailouts - and most are still on the edge of recession and not the GDP growth they need to survive. They are presently all being sucked backwards toward the plug hole, and even China is looking a little dizzy on debt OD.
Forget the stock market, that is simply Punch and Judy theatre put on for your entertainment by TPTB.
I might add that it is becoming apparent that Gold now is cheap, at any price. But maybe you wont want to hold it in the US.
Are you Chinese? That post was weak===
He said interest rapes. Shit dammit the cat's outta the bag! Even the Pope felt that one.
He is a mildly amusing little shit - but he a court jester.
However the fool has sometimes the most insightful thoughts.
I guess that makes Merv King............. King Lear I guess.
But I caught something in one of the featured U tube videos - he claimed he was a wealth creator - give me a fucking break.
Hedgies are a pox.
I'll say this for Hfs they have their butts on the line with no golden parachutes (unlike their PD TBTF shill counterparts),BUT in a mad game that should be strictly regulated world wide as it pushes too much financial resources towards "plasticine" men making short term plays; looking for a opportunity to screw a central bank shill on his wrong judgement. There is some sanity in having contrarian mavericks to punish central bank cretinous political plays, based on sovereign interest, not sound economics. But it should be marginal and not become 'the be all and end all' of capitalism that it is today. It has created in society the unacceptable 99% - 1% wealth chasm which will kill both the real economy and real democracy. These guys will never want to come back to the real world, they have become mutant financial predators.
get in line
.
hugh hendry makes more money than a whore
Well it all kinda clicked last night when I happened upon CSPAN (after watching The Office....really...not American Idol).
It was the charade presentation of the subcommittee to Homeland Security and they were discussing the latest terrorist attempt in the US by....THE IRANIANS (you're suppose to shiver and shake). My god man...it was completely unbelievable what the witnesses were saying. If you can, you should watch the entire 2+ hours. You'll see where we are headed and you'll see the evil and psychotic asshols running the show. And no one was there challenging these guys...except for maybe Korb.
My sense is they'll use the war on Iran as a cover for the financial tsunami that will be forthcoming. Well that's the optimistic view. I have others that are more sinister, and after listening to this committee and its "witnesses", I think you would too.
It seems you can purchase all the gold to satisfy your deepest insecurities, and hide it. You can try and second guess the markets and makes some cash. You can even purchase some prime farmland in the Dakotas if you like. And you can continue to follow the financial shenanigans and try to make sense of it all. But you won't. And you probably won't be able to hang onto that gold, farmland, cash or anything else you materially treasure.
A whole lot of energy being spent on this market while even larger "anvils" await you at every turn. You might want to look up every once in awhile and try to understand that nothing is changing because TOO MANY ARE STILL INTERESTED IN THE GAME, AND PLAYING IT AS WELL.
Well...I know you big boyz got all your bases covered so I'll wimp on back to my virtual corner. I'm sure you're all real special people, and I'm sure those in charge will treat you appropriately as we approach the next turn.
Here's the link. http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/CovertOp
The star witnesses:
Geraghty, Tim Colonel (Retired)U.S. Marine Corps Keane, John M. General (Retired)U.S. Army Leavitt, Matt DirectorWashington Institute for Near East Policy -> Counterterrorism and Intelligence Program Korb, Lawrence J. Senior FellowCenter for American Progress Gerecht, Reuel MarcSenior FellowFoundation for Defense of Democracies
hmm... he's pushing sustainability.
7 billion humans on this planet is already too many for it so sustain.
I recall touring Houston in 1983 standing in dntn and looking through empty skyscrapers, they all eventually sold or leased once supplyside economics kicked into high gear. Not sure China is going to see the same thing happen.
If Tylers sleep tonight , Not alloud! Stay up Bitches! Trade like the Men looking for a RE-TRACE! Bitches!
Thanks for all the junks and greaT IdEAS!
All aboard, scrub the misery and toil of trying to predict the future, simply repeat the successes of the ancients, keep on stacking.
“No passion so effectually robs the mind of all its powers of acting and reasoning as fear.”
- Edmund Burke
This bear rally will kill the funds again.
http://viewfromthewilds.blogspot.com/2011/10/capitulation-and-bear-rallies-fear-vs.html
Tylers ! You can't sleep through Europe! Stay sharp for the retrace!
Thanks yen! Build a position!!!
Retrace to recoup on short euro plays; timing is such a bitch when you have to switch, but then bitches are made to be switches.
I met a stripper named Gypsy Switch when I was seventeen in Georgetown...........
Thanks for the memories falak
That one chance meeting taught me a lot about puss + boots and timing
Cheers
It's not wise man passing through and eye of a needle it is a rich man passing through the eye of a needle. He is undoubtedly the later but his psyche and ego couldn't let him commit himself to eternal damnation.
I don't get his comment that you can't predict the future. If he believes that, then why the hell isn't he in index funds then?
I think he's completely in error in that statement. I think the future can be predicted, but not with absolutely certainity. Like, if I flip on a light switch in my house, I predict with very high confidence that the light is gonna turn on.
The only difference being that you personally don´t switch shit neither on or off in the markets....
Sorry, just wanted to see what my picture icon looks like. I love ZH.
Great Post! I can watch hedge fund manager interviews til the cows come home. Please post links of other good interviews below if you can. Thanks, Special Agent Utah
Academy Awards straw@ bilderberg Policies go castrate own kind shooting jewel thieves...
Bite the wax tadpole!
DAX monthly chart at blog shows recent bullish candle revealing aggressive short covering rally enclosed within big picture bearish pattern.
Bullish USD weekly/monthly and bearish SP500/DOW monthly
charts will eventually ensure a violent reversal of equity uptrend.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Timing, timing, timing. The key to playing, or even surviving to the other side is timing. Getting out early is never a bad thing. Getting in early often is.
Recall that back in the mid 1980's, Japan was valued at more than the rest of the world combined.....every company, every house, every car, every asset on the face of the Earth vs. just Japan.
That was absurd, and not sustainable. Seemed an obvious short.
It got even worse. At the end, just Tokyo alone was "worth" more than the rest of the planet. Loans at the margin were made on that valuation basis. I remember a woman in Osaka borrowed $2 billion in 1989 from Industrial Bank of Japan, which was Japan's blue blood bank. Her sole asset was a small sushi restaurant. On her loan application under "Purpose" she actually wrote, "to purchase stocks the gods tell me to buy". She did a Maria Bartiromo and "put that money to work" basis 35-38,915.87 Nikkei.
It did not end well. Not for her portfolio, not for her, not for IBJ and not for Japan.
One would think the world would learn from such mistakes. Reading Michael Lewis' sadly hilarious new book Boomerang, and being reminded of the recent history of Iceland, Greece and Ireland, one would be incorrect in assuming we humans ever learn anything.
The point, however, is that things can go from absurd to absurder to absurdest. I think the world is now somewhere between the comparative and the superlative, which is why we can get a 20% one month worldwide rally off unicorn fart fumes.
"Our society today is confronted with a bleak future due to poor policy decisions; the truth today has become upallatable, and these jokers don't want to hear it"
I'm not ashamed to admit that I have bromantic feelings for Hugh Hendry.