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And Once Again, German, French Discord Threatens To Scuttle European Bailout Reports AP

Tyler Durden's picture





 

All it took to unwind two weeks of rumors and lies were a few factual articles. Such as this one from the AP: "Disagreement between France and Germany may prevent eurozone leaders from reaching a crucial deal on a second rescue package for Greece this weekend, a person familiar with the negotiations said Tuesday....Investors around the world hope a comprehensive plan to fight the debt crisis, including final details on Greece's second bailout, will keep the debt turmoil from pushing the global economy back into recession. Signs that such a plan is proving slower to clinch caused markets to slide on Tuesday. Germany is pushing for banks to accept cuts of 50 percent to 60 percent in the value of their Greek bonds, while France is insisting that leaders should only make technical revisions to a preliminary agreement reached with private investors in July, the person said. France on the other hand has been reluctant to back bigger losses for banks, since French banks are among the biggest holders of Greek government bonds. Its position is supported by the European Commission, the EU's executive. Commission officials said last week that technical revisions to the July deal with the banks are necessary because changed market conditions had made the deal more expensive for Greece and the rest of the eurozone." And so on. Are we the only ones dazed, confused, and tired beyond comprehension with this endless, ridiculous, pathetic, grovelling Groundhog Day bullshit? Stop risking civil and international war just to satisfy your bureaucratic vanity. THERE IS NO MONEY! YOU KNOW IT, WE KNOW IT, THE PEOPLE KNOW IT. ENOUGH!!!

JUST LET GREECE DEFAULT ALREADY AND LET THE CHIPS FALL WHERE THEY MAY!

 


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Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:35 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

No default. They enjoy torturing. Theater of cruelty, Antonin Artaud style.

Nobody gets left behind in this Eurocalypse!

'France on the other hand has been reluctant to back bigger losses for banks, since French banks are among the biggest holders of Greek government bonds.'

They smell it coming, the French. Beloved FrAAnce.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:38 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I think Tyler is having his Jim Cramer "They know nothing!" Bear Stearns moment.  

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:47 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Aren't we all?

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:54 | Link to Comment heyligen
heyligen's picture

But...but...what about a few trillions in positive fair value adjustments on structured liabilities (Bank of America terms)?

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 12:36 | Link to Comment gangland
gangland's picture

The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire!

We don't need no water—Let the motherfucka' burn!

Burn, motherfucka', burn!

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:31 | Link to Comment emsolý
emsolý's picture

Mugatu's crazy-pill moment comes to mind, too:

"The man has only one look for Christ's sake! Blue Steel, Ferrari, Latigra? They're the same face! Doesn't anyone notice this?! I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I invented the piano key necktie. I invented it! What have you done, Derek? Nothing!"

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

I'm a little worried about Tyler - the anger is palpable.

Tyler, go watch the Ping-Pong Robots again. It soothes.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 13:03 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

LOL!!

printing or not printing?
Tyler's or Germany's way?

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:47 | Link to Comment tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Some insight from Don Coxe on G20, he was requested to write up a piece on commodity regulation for the upcoming meeting.

 

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=1695

 

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Quintus
Quintus's picture

Are we the only ones dazed, confused, and tired beyond comprehension with this endless, ridiculous, pathetic, grovelling Groundhog Day bullshit?

 

Nope.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

No.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:36 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

ditto.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:46 | Link to Comment kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

Not at all. Seriously, what is wrong with these people?

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:08 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Those who benefit from the status quo will not let it die easily.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:46 | Link to Comment V in PA
V in PA's picture

Whales are large, slow creatures. Sometimes it takes years for them to be properly positioned.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 13:32 | Link to Comment Freebird
Freebird's picture

Exactly. Just make the fucking decision muppets. Pull the plug or go the 2 Tril.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Ahwooga
Ahwooga's picture

The despair evidnet in Tyler's words here have absolutely made my day since they so closely reflect the despair I feel. So very very very tedious, and I don't know for how much longer I can read the same chicken shit wrapped up as a different flavoured chicken salad.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Clorox Cowboy
Clorox Cowboy's picture

I think the hardest thing for me has been watching the slo-mo trainwreck and trying to pretend it doesn't matter around friends and family who don't believe anything is wrong, and are probably sick of me talking about how close we are to the edge...I need to schedule a meeting with Cognitive Dissonance. Anyone seen him?

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:57 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

It's easier to read if presented in its properly ridiculous fashion. Think "Young Frankenstein" meets "High (finance) Anxiety." I'm already full on "looney tunes" reruns I'm at such a loss for words.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Ronaldo
Ronaldo's picture

I thought that was a chicken salad sandwich, really tastes like crap though.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:34 | Link to Comment The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

Playing musical chairs sux when the chairs are made of balsa wood.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:37 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

It makes sense..  A greater Greek hair cut would imply more French intervention to recapitalize its banks, so it would surely lose its AAA rating.  Germany doesn't want to bailout French banks.

 

ECB is proxy for a French monetary whore bath.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:50 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

and they got themselves the head of the IMF too!

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 12:30 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

IMF also lent money to Greece

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

The French will eventually surrender, they always do.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:05 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

The French will eventually surrender, they always do.

 

this weekend will be a great example of that Allblacks 44, France 9

the haka will be spectacular

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:23 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

nine points for what?

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 12:18 | Link to Comment Ronaldo
Ronaldo's picture

9 points for attendance

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 12:43 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

that sounds like a GS fee!

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

It's only words. The Eurocrats are trying to get them right. Once they get the right words in the correct order, all these problems will just disapear. And the world will be safe for the spead of socialism, economic justice, livable wages, tooth fairies, ect, ect..  You get the drift. :)

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:36 | Link to Comment boom goes the d...
boom goes the dynamite's picture

Germany vs. France, or all of Europe for that matter. I'm down with Germany.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4K6ZxDwi34

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Allot of gold bugs seem to think that Euro land and the US have to keep printing in order for gold to continue up. That is just not the case. Gold will go up without new printing.

http://freegoldobserver.blogspot.com/2011/10/asian-crisis-follow-up.html

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:39 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

 The top U.S. derivatives regulator is slated to vote today whether to curb trading in oil, wheat, gold and other commodities after a boom in raw-materials speculation, record-high prices and years of debate and delay.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-18/commodity-speculators-may-face-... 

 

Gold is going to collapse.  Naked CDS unwind, may mean gold unwind.  Commodity bubble may collapse in next few month.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:46 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

@Spitzer & @DormRoom

Let me ease your confusion. Any collapse will set a series of events in motion that the  paper price of anything let alone gold, will be the least of your worries. See Kyle Bass.

 

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

@ DormRoom and GMB

When the COMEX defaults, and the paper price of gold crashes to $200 an oz, good luck finding a seller of physical.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:53 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Well I hope they do something. Ties into what I looked at when the volume of commodity contracts traded went up by a factor of ten starting in July this year. Bloomberg has some old data. The total cntracts traded in the past few weeks in corn are higher than the total for all other commodity contracts combined in April.

I have a hard time believing there are 225k individual buyers of corn contracts in one day.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The paper money bubble needs to finish collapsing.  There is no bubble in commodities.  The idea that gold is in a bubble is ludacris beyond all comprehension.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 12:11 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

DormRoom

Gold is going to collapse.  Naked CDS unwind, may mean gold unwind.  Commodity bubble may collapse in next few month.

I see it differently, this is what we have been waiting FOR.

IF you CANT PAPER IT, then you have 2 choices, do without, or BUY THE REAL DEAL.

Temp drop in prices, no one except a fool is going to get caught w/out Physical GOLD>

 

 

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:37 | Link to Comment schadenfreude
schadenfreude's picture

Yes please. We all know, that a default is unavoidable. Stop kicking the can.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:37 | Link to Comment agent default
agent default's picture

Banks should accept a 100% on their Greek bonds and that's that.  We all know Greece is a hopeless deadbeat, unless there is some ulterior political/foreign policy motive here, there is no point in beating this dead horse.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:12 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

The real question is: After Greece fails, how much of a haircut will have to be

taken on Frdnce's debt?

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:38 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

downgrade in minutes

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:38 | Link to Comment broke433
broke433's picture

Guys, don't fuk with the Bernenk

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:40 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

OUT...OF...TIME.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:40 | Link to Comment digalert
digalert's picture

Hear, Hear!

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:41 | Link to Comment Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Awesome - best posting this month!

 

STOP THE DRAMA - damnit!

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:42 | Link to Comment defn8Dog
defn8Dog's picture

Banks will wish they took 50 cents on the dollar on Greek debt.  The one year GGGB is trading at 35 cents today.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:42 | Link to Comment Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Global Monetary System Collapse

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Quintus
Quintus's picture

We can but hope.  

Sounds harsh, but really the current system is diseased and incurable.  At this point, only collapse followed by reconstruction will purge the accumulated detritus of a century of fractional reserve, central bank based monetary ponzi fraud.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:21 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

paper becomes paper, like ashes to ashes.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:48 | Link to Comment qussl3
qussl3's picture

There is no way this ends without monetization if default is to be avoided.
French downgrade would put the entire EZ banking system at risk, even Germany doesn't have the resources to stand behind the combined French and German banking systems credibly without the ecb guaranteeing bond purchases.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:48 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

yes, let the chips fall, if they don't do it now, the next fall is much much worse

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Kina
Kina's picture

Soon a glut of frogs legs.

 

 

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:52 | Link to Comment freethinker4now
freethinker4now's picture

If Carlsberg did Drama Queens, they'd be the best damn drama Queens in thee World...After the EU that is :)

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:53 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Sarkozy and Merkel talk greek to each other. One is Spartan, the other is Athenian. No wonder they are mistaking Troy for Byzantium. Maybe they need Bernanke as translator. You know the 'print, damn it print! And to hell with the rest.' guy. 

When you don't have money you have to pull it out of someone else's ear. Chinese one eared men will be very much in fashion. "I sold my ear for a tranche of EFSF and got myself a stake on Mykonos beach'. The way to go if you are deaf and dumb. Like most of us. I'll send them my ear for a piece of Venus de Milo.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:02 | Link to Comment The Onion Of Tw...
The Onion Of Twickenham's picture

THE PEOPLE KNOW IT.

 

Sorry, Tyler. "The People" don't know jack shit... except maybe who's on The X Factor.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

They know there's a jug-eared mulatto running loose with a teleprompter out there.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:08 | Link to Comment aleph0
aleph0's picture

Says it all :

" Are we the only ones dazed, confused, and tired beyond comprehension with this endless, ridiculous, pathetic, grovelling Groundhog Day bullshit? Stop risking civil and international war just to satisfy your bureaucratic vanity. 
THERE IS NO MONEY! YOU KNOW IT, WE KNOW IT, THE PEOPLE KNOW IT. ENOUGH!!!  "

 

"The Onion Of Tw" ...  " THE PEOPLE KNOW IT"

 

I guess Tyler means "very soon" ! 

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Complete inverse correlation between the markets and any fact-based fundamentals. Bigger the sh*tstorm, the higher it goes.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:08 | Link to Comment Nascent_Variable
Nascent_Variable's picture

We don't need no water.  Let the motherfucker burn.

Burn, motherfucker...

... burn.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:08 | Link to Comment Capitalist10
Capitalist10's picture

"Stop risking civil and international war just to satisfy your bureaucratic vanity"

I think Greece should default, but...

why exactly should anyone care if there is civil war in Greece?  As for international war, what are they going to do?  attack Albania?

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Did you really think that he was talking about Greece attacking some other country regarding the "international war" warning, or did you actually think that you were being witty with your remark? Also, are you under the idea that a civil war would only take place within the Greek society? If so you should try visiting a news site.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:43 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

And if Greece did attack another country, more people would die laughing than in battle,

when they see the Greek soldiers in their blue and white dresses (fustanellas) and pom-poms on their shoes.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:09 | Link to Comment shortus cynicus
shortus cynicus's picture

Greece hasn't borrowed anything of value. The students in US too.

Don't worry, be happy. Keep printing. GDP doesn't take inflation into account so printing speed mean "development" speed.

Be fast and furious. Hoarders of debt bills must be punished for their criminal attempt to curb the economy.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:14 | Link to Comment taint
taint's picture

So germany has France bent over the sink again?  schadenfreude or is it shatinaford?

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:27 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

They decided to print already.  Like the Fed, they are taking 90% of the time to craft a statement about it which won't cause a freak out.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:42 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

dammit, janet!

the G20 wants this stuff taken care of this weekend!!!

 

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:42 | Link to Comment BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Based on the Skinner's rat analogy, I see no reason to expect any change in behaviour from the ECB Keystone Kops. There is still no negative feedback to retard the continuation of this ADHD reflex to calming the market.

I'm still waiting for the glass jaw knockout punch that alerts the world that the pantomime is over and we're ready to unveil the real price and value of assets. Perhaps this moment will never come and we'll just follow the Japanese banks slowly burrowing their own graves.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 11:52 | Link to Comment real
real's picture
Sorry about this being a bit off topic.  Maybe a Tyler can answer or someone else on here. I was wondering about the government pension funds that were needed to keep the government running from , what was it, the end of June to the date they made the deal in August,  were the funds ever replaced ?  And also i remember back in 08  i read every word on Nouriel Roubinis site, there was something about how savings and retirement plans were made available as assets for the banks to improve their balance sheets, and also, how does this tie into making the ex brokerage firms into banks, did all their investments become assets ? If this is true, does that mean they can be looted ?
Tue, 10/18/2011 - 12:14 | Link to Comment sasebo
sasebo's picture

This is what you get when you print too much medium of exchange & use it to gamble instead of it's intended purpose - to exchange.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 12:41 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

can you change the "dischord" to DISCORD?

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 13:47 | Link to Comment CIABS
CIABS's picture

the (non-)word "dischord" might be useful in the field of music...

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 12:45 | Link to Comment beatus12
beatus12's picture

well said zh

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 13:18 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

JUST LET GREECE DEFAULT ALREADY AND LET THE CHIPS FALL WHERE THEY MAY!

Well said Tyler.

 

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 13:37 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

This is reposted from here, but may be interesting, as I currency pairs, groups will long term tell a lot what is going to happen in this unipolar  world when its major reserve currency collapses in 2016  ( after the other, EUR, will start collapsing already in early 2012 but French and German and some other strong Northern countries start to clean Eurozone up):

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=34598#p34598

I have considered GBP/USD - but not in too great detail- can someone present me with the most advanced financial charting and analysis soft

From what I have considered, it seems (but I have to check, too many charts, I also want to be able to study ratios (not only forex-any) charts of even triple ratio charts or triple surface charts (1 price as function of 2 others)  with movable/stretchable time scales, log-log plots etc) that after Eurozone final cleanup in 2013, from 2014 GPB will be pegged to the USD in rather narrow 0,71 GPB per USD +-2% corridor. in 2016, with USA default, GBP will obvioulsy move up into 0,5 GPB per GPB within 2 years. Before 2014, GPB will be also stable to USD at 0,62 GPB per USD, but inflationary pressures will mount.

Also, relatively stable vs. USD during 2014 will be CHF and especially CAD. JPY may even grow from 2013 vs, USD. The big sufferer in USD index is EUR.

One more interesting thing ( I have not been able to make any meaningful assessment of Yuan) is that one currency that will appreciate against USD starting already from 2014 will be PLN, and perhaps, CZK. What it tells, is, that not only these countries have developed good industrial base in post soviet years, but also, that GERMAN economic machine will be running full speed after 2013 German federal elections (between 1 September and 27 October 2013) adn expose confidence that it will continue running . From the chart I had published earlier elsewhere:

USD per EUR 2011-2018

Old EUR USD 2011_2017.png (70.71 KB) Viewed 1 time

One can see that something happens during early 2013 and than especially in end of 2013 when EUR temporarily takes back lost ground to USD. One of the possible reasons is that French elections in 2012 gives hope, while German in end of 2013 seals EUROZONE cleanup act in what ever form. After that , from UDS per EUR graph its clear, that, either as usual , promises are not kept or new factors arise that makes impossible for them to be kept ( and forces US to peg to USD to stoke inflation).

Such ideas about GBP, etc. I will come with more graphs as soon I am able to make them( takes DAYS of working itme/chart)

Ivars

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 14:22 | Link to Comment AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

It's time Europe arrest these people who threaten war or to enslave them further in debt as it is clear now they only seek to create crimes against humanity.

Bring these fuckers down!

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 17:00 | Link to Comment pain_and_soros
pain_and_soros's picture

Just like they like to sell students on loans that can't be repaid based on hope for a good paying job, etc. and how they like to sell homebuyers on the biggest possible house their financial circumstances will allow, based on the hope/false belief that home prices will only every continue to go up, and how they generally want conumsers, representing 70% of the economy to continue to max credit cards & HLOC to overspend on stuff they don't need/can't use....

selling hope to people is the only thing these con men know how to do & it has made them rich & secure beyond measure...and they will keep stringing it along as long as it works...until it doesn't.

when they exhaust people of "confidence", get ready for collapse, depression and the revenge of the idiots you referred to earlier.

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