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And Scene: Europe Agrees To Disagree, Next Summit Date Set For March 2012 As David Cameron Kills Compromise

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Not the headlines Gollum van Rompuy needed at 3:30 am CET, when he was scheduled to have a press conference:

  • EU LEADERS AGREE THEY WILL REEXAMINE CEILING OF ESM BAILOUT FUND IN MARCH 2012 - EU DIPLOMAT via RTRS
  • TREATY CHANGE LIKELY TO BE DONE AMONG EURO ZONE PLUS OTHER COUNTRIES, BUT NOT AT 27 - EU DIPLOMATS via RTRS
  • EU LEADERS AGREED PERMANENT ESM BAILOUT FUND WILL NOT HAVE A BANKING LICENCE -- EU DIPLOMAT
  • And the guilty party: An agreement at 27 fell through after British Prime Minister David Cameron demanded concessions that Germany and France were not willing to give, one of the officials said.

And some more:

  • The news conference by European Council President Herman Van Rompuy that had been planned for 0200 GMT has been delayed by at least 30 minutes as talks by European Union leaders are ongoing, a council press officer said.

Translation: tomorrow's summit is as of now an epic failure. As for the Eurozone lasting through January 1 of 2012, let alone March... good luck.

More:

The European Union failed to secure backing from all 27 countries to change the EU treaty at a summit Friday, meaning any deal will now likely involve the 17 euro zone countries plus any others that want to join, three EU diplomats said.

 

An agreement at 27 fell through after British Prime Minister David Cameron demanded concessions that Germany and France were not willing to give, one of the officials said.

 

During nearly 10 hours of talks that lasted into the night, EU leaders did manage to reach agreement on a ceiling for the size of the euro zone's permanent bailout fund, the ESM, saying it would be capped at 500 billion euros.

 

That figure will be reviewed in July next year, when the ESM is due to come into force, the diplomats said.

 

The leaders also agreed to explore the idea of providing bilateral loans to the International Monetary Fund totalling 200 billion euros, with 150 billion of that coming from the euro zone , to bolster IMF resources to tackle Europe's debt crisis.

 


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Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:06 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Missed it by >that< much.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:21 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I posted part of this in another thread, but it's even more relevant in this one, and I've included a link to a PRI/BBC podcast that you can listen to that gives a great sense of how angry northern europeans are, and how this anger is rapidly growing as they are becoming aware of the reality that some of their politicians are contemplating literally crushing their economic health in an attempt (what will ultimately be a futile one, to add insult to their long term economic injury, IMO) to keep the EU together and the euro as a common currency:

 

The BBC aired a special today whereby they interviewed people in the Netherlands who want to go back to the guilder and leave the EU, and the far right party there, which used to be non-relevant, now has the 2nd most seats in parliament and is positioned to upset the majority party soon.

The main reason?  The cost of living/inflation.

Let them print euros to infinity and beyond, which is the ONLY way to save anything remotely approximating what is now the European Union, as holders of sovereign debt get paid back with used toilet paper, and as inflation absolutely enrages people in Europe who tend to be much less even tempered than the Dutch, and watch what happens.

Anyone who actually believes that the European Union can be saved at this point is beyond delusional. If it's "saved," the "save" won't last very last.

Here's the BBC/PRI Podcast (Dutch clamoring for leaving the euro):http://pri.org/files/audio/neuro_989037576.mp3

 

No one knows what is about to happen. I tend to think it's going to fall apart, as I ponder back on that BBC story, and remember the Dutch who were interviewed, and who were now supporting the right wing party gaining strength, all say that they're not going to see their living standards erode even more "to support those Italians, Greeks & Portuguese," and I'll paraphrase this part..."who are living large off of our sacrifice and suffering."

And this is the crux of the problem.

Anyone living in whatever counts for a solvent nation in the EU, mainly in the north, is already taxed to death, and despite the euro rising in relative value against the USD since its inception, it actually buys less and less in Europe due to a whole host of factors.

Nigel Farage, who I actually like, even if he hams it up and is very much the attention whore, is essentially right:  It was flawed thinking that led to the belief that a cobbled together union of different nations, cultures, regions, values, beliefs and economic, social and political systems/practices could ever be able to use a common currency, essentially all being joined at the hip and being forced into an arrangement where the responsible must perpetually (and it will be perpetually, I assure anyone) bail out the irresponsible.

If those Dutch (and Germans, and etc etc) think they're getting screwed now, just wait until the ECB printing begins. They haven't seen anything yet. And the ECB printing HAS TO BEGIN AND ACCELERATE LIKE CRAZY if the only possible way to save the EU is to be implemented, to wit, having the ECB monetize the debt of what are incredibly indebted EU Member States (PIIGS+France+UK).

Most people are focused on the PIIGS, when in fact, France is in terrible financial condition, also, and England has the highest official (unofficially, the numbers and percentages are all multiples higher) debt to GDP ratio, which stands at 1000%.

If they implement the austerity + the ECB purchase of indebted EU Member State sovereign government debt which necessitates the massive dilution of euros via the printing press, the end result is going to be incredible economic, political and social tensions within the EU, which rip the EU apart at the seams, at any rate.

Anyone who believes a soft landing type rescue of the EU can be accomplished is just not plugged into reality. Everyone who thought that this experiment would work didn't think hard enough about possibility (and now factual occurrence) that some many nations would live far beyond their means for a long time, and when the tide came in, these accumulated years of irresponsibility would have to be paid for from the pockets of those who did not - let Germans & others see what's effectively going to be a massive rise in their cost of living and massive reduction in their quality of lives, and watch the pot boil over.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:28 | Link to Comment john39
john39's picture

They knew at the outset that it wouldn't work, a necessary intermediate step. Now lets see if they think they can pull off the next stage.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:33 | Link to Comment Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

Nigel Farage must be breathing down David Cameron's neck.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:00 | Link to Comment strannick
strannick's picture

Who the hell cares what bloody Britain has to say. They're a nation of royal family souvenir salesmen outside Buckingham Palace. Let Germany figure it out and everyone else just do as your told, and all will be well.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 01:02 | Link to Comment sqz
sqz's picture

To be honest, I'm glad one politician is not going to play these games with a union that should not even exist. Unfortunately, that happens to be a only a Brit ...

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 01:52 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Awesome Avaatar sqz. What a visual. If only our world could revolve like that.

And even Farrage's Barrages are for a stronger britain, which is not exactly good thing, going by their history.

I personally feel that European citizenery, after a good 40 post war years, are being readied, angered, brainwashed to enlist again. Perhaps a lightly stoked EU/Russia tension, some shut off gas supplies in the bad winter coming....

All in all..... March 2012 is a joke, clearly the implosion is well before that.

ORI

/the-plan/

 

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 03:45 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

"If only our world could revolve like that."

but...it does.

"I personally feel that European citizenery, after a good 40 post war years, are being readied, angered, brainwashed to enlist again. Perhaps a lightly stoked EU/Russia tension, some shut off gas supplies in the bad winter coming...."

...dutch folks think they are paying Italians, Greeks, etc to party?

Divide and Conquer...only the bank gets paid and/or survives.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 04:13 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"And the guilty party: An agreement at 27 fell through after British Prime Minister David Cameron demanded concessions that Germany and France were not willing to give, one of the officials said."

Well, well, wasn't this unexpected. Wonder what concessions Cameron wanted? Nothing to do with British Banks?

sqz, re. the "union that should never exist" - what would your alternative be? You know it should be called a Confederation instead of a Union, at least at the current stage...

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 07:35 | Link to Comment strannick
strannick's picture

Exactly. Britain is as big an economic basket case as the PIIGS. Now that fisccal unity is on the table in addition to the unsustainable monetary union, Europe can show the world how fragmented it really is.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 07:47 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

fragmented? LOL Is fragmented good or bad?

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 09:13 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

The French and German were basically demanding for the UK to jump on a sinking ship and play by the same rules as the French and German. Of course the Germans want everyone on the same playing field, they are dominating the EU's economy. It would be like a minor league baseball/soccer player demanding everyone in the majors play on his level. Let.it.crash.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 07:03 | Link to Comment NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

Hm, Bundesbank, Slovakia, Finnland, Netherlands ... all protested but got muted and menaced .

But €U- ductape can't hold forever.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 02:43 | Link to Comment english serf
english serf's picture

FARAGE is a fringe Politian in the uk. The inertia in british politics means you have a choice of two parties. Both are virtually the same.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 03:54 | Link to Comment philipat
philipat's picture

Sounds just like the US. It's called "Divide and conquer" and is played by TPTB in both countries.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:38 | Link to Comment YBNguy
YBNguy's picture

Thank you Truth,

I read your earlier post on this and tried to find the BBC vid but could'nt. I have family in the Netherlands and am interested as to what happens to their bank accounts if things come undone (I have my speculations but they think Im nuts when I tell them about things on here).

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:59 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

I can answer that question.

The only option left for the EU is ECB printing, which will inflate the monetary base substantially and debase the Euro. 

Their bank account may still be there but the Euros in it will have less and less purchasing power.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 02:24 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Not only will that be the case (increasingly so going forward), but that's already been the case, and if anyone listens to that podcast I linked, the Dutch are complaining they've lost nearly half their purchasing power since switching from the guilder to the euro in 2002.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 03:47 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

frankly they must just luv to complain rather than figuring out that they need to shield themselves in PMs.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 01:12 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

...an arrangement where the responsible must perpetually (and it will be perpetually, I assure anyone) bail out the irresponsible...

Just how different is what you are describing from the US, the common currency and the different cultures? You have responsible and irresponsible States and Corporations. Even within single European countries like for example in Germany, you can distinguish between the "haves" and the "have nots".

It can work depending on the legal framework and the will power to merge closer into a single entity with one constitution, one tax code, essentially one budget. Maybe European visionaries are still 500 years too early?

 

 

 

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 02:22 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

While only an imbecile would NOT concede that the U.S. is drowning in debt, in terms of social, political, cultural, economic, language similarities, etc. etc. between the 50 (or 57) U.S. states and those that comprise the 27 EU Member States, they are universes apart.

I do realize accents are different in Wisconsin and Laredo, diets are somewhat different in San Diego versus Biloxi, and that if you order BBQ in Memphis, TN vs Lockhart, TX you won't get the same thing - but c'mon. Let's be honest. Even a Tuscaloosan & Manhattanite would appear to be twins relative to the cosmically and radically different Athenian and Berliner, standing side by side.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 02:18 | Link to Comment Tapeworm
Tapeworm's picture

"Nigel Farage, who I actually like, even if he hams it up and is very much the attention whore, is essentially right:  It was flawed thinking that led to the belief that a cobbled together union of different nations, cultures, regions, values, beliefs and economic, social and political systems/practices could ever be able to use a common currency, essentially all being joined at the hip and being forced into an arrangement where the responsible must perpetually (and it will be perpetually, I assure anyone) bail out the irresponsible."

 That is all true, but even so, Farage does offer humor in politics that few others provide. I want to see him at Von Rumpoy just to see that EU maggot squirm.

 The anger from the Netherlands is somewhat misplaced. Their rise in their cost of living is not related to Portugal and Greece. It is from the EU itself. Tens of thousands of chickenshit regulations are there to ensure employment of the hordes of EU bureaucrats that are gutting the producer class of any nation, and that is hardly confined to the Euro zone.

 All of the crap from the ECB and CBs that claim to be saving the slobs that they refuse to allow a vote on their enslavement is just a screen to feed themselves and the bankster rackets that they bow to. Get it over before Christmas.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 04:23 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"As for the Eurozone lasting through January 1 of 2012, let alone March... good luck."

Well, thanks for the good luck wishes! (So if by Easter the EZ is still here ZH is going to rethink some little details?)

Dear Nigel represents those who think that all things beginning with Eur- are quite silly, yes.

But there is quite a lot of folks here that do have this - let's call it "dream". You can't change the continent and the peoples but you can try to change the treaties between them towards a better future.

The regulations from Brussels are still probably cheaper if done by one set of bureaucrats then by 17 or 27 sets - may I remind everybody that "regulations" are both a) instruments of trade agreements (and trade wars - just think about Microsoft & the EU) and b) somewhat necessary for the smooth functioning of a common market and c) have to be seen in the context of global trade? As much as I personally hate them, if I were in charge I could not really slash more than a third to half of them - and before you howl, yes, I know what I'm talking about in producing "real things" in the EU. Remember the scandals with Chinese Toys, just as an example.

The anger from the Netherlands? Well, could they really have a super strong currency at this stage of the currency wars? Have you any idea how interconnected Holland is with the rest of the EU? Without the EUR we would have frantic meetings of state heads and CBs endlessly discussing currency depreciations, floors (like the CHF) and pegs. And lots of speculative attacks by Soros wannabes. This just as a topping to the current crisis that has not only it's source in the overspending of decades but also a lot with globalization and the exchange of portfolio elements across the globe (otherwise every country would only have an internal sov debt).

Realists (inside and outside the Netherlands) know that: a) every member country is free to leave and b) it's cold out there when you are alone.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 06:58 | Link to Comment hansg
hansg's picture

I'm Dutch. Your bogeymen don't scare us anymore.

We constantly hear how much prosperity Europe has brought us, and how much we will lose when we return to the guilder. Well, the first is already proven to be a lie and no one appears willing to show us calculation on what we lose when remaining with the euro. And that's really all the evidence we need.

Bring on the guilder.

 

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 07:53 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Excellent. Bring on the guilder. OK. And then? A "floor" to the EUR like Switzerland's SNB has set? Or to float freely?

I'll leave out the bogeymen of how to cope with the speculation, which is rampant thanks to all the super-liquidity.

Don't get me wrong, I consider the Netherlands as the trading nation since centuries, I'm sure you would cope, better than most.

Nevertheless, a breakout of the Netherlands would immediately pose the question about how your CB would have to position itself.

Again: A "floor" to the EUR like Switzerland's SNB has set? Or to float freely?

The first option is not that smart - why bother at all, then?

And the second is somewhat, let's say, "interesting" and would get the Dutch export oriented companies screaming for the first option. The EZ is your market nr.1, switch to the "rest of the world"? Tie with the global reserve currency?

We are in the first (downward) leg of a currency war. That's a fact. I remember how the "architects" of the EZ had this distint scenario in discussion when they proposed the EUR - as a way to cope with them. We just had two currency wars, and they were ugly.

Remember Nixon?

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 07:56 | Link to Comment BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Hey yo.

Amsterdam used to be a very cool place but when i was last there in 2005 it was a real shithole.

What happened and will you ever get it back?

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 08:09 | Link to Comment bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

and the dutch euroskeptics don't scare anyone either. like the spaniard, the german, the italian, the french etc etc ones. that's because most of them are not euroskeptics because of outright nationalism but because they're affected by the crisis. we can say that the bulk of them are people that associate past good times with objects that populated that past (the old shining currency) assuming that reinstalling those fetishes will bring back those good times. it could be fascinating but it's wrong. dangerously wrong.

BTW you're wrong in thinking Ghordius rationality is to be ignored because of the fact that you irrationally associate good times, where there was no global systemic crisis, with your old currency. the problem is that you fail to understand that this is not a euro/EZ crisis, this is a global systemic crisis that will affect all the world. in different ways and in different stages (bringing also geopolitical dislocation).  the current focus is on EZ and that serves well certain interests that so can breathe. but it won't last.

I think it's important to sail the troubled water in the immediate but it's crucial to never lose the sight of the big picture, the medium-long term. the big picture is made also of: never underestimate and forget the positives of the EU project, having big muscles will be of great importance in the post crisis (where the US will lose its current status).

 

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 09:16 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

The solution is not to kick the can down the road.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Archduke
Archduke's picture

- "I'm Dutch..."

- I'm so sorry.  it must have been hard on your parents.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 10:44 | Link to Comment silverbullion
silverbullion's picture

Gold and silver guilders. :-)

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 07:30 | Link to Comment bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

we should count the times the euro/EZ has been proclaimed (wished) dead here and generally by anglosaxon media (eurosadism is fashionable there). we should set a prize for when they reach 100 (I think some of the contenders are near). as a prize I suggest a EU flag.

BBC can go anywhere in EU and find people moaning about EU just like you can find people moaning about the government everywhere.  politicians and banks are not really appreciated among the general public recently, you know. rightily so, I might add.

UK being against further integration is news only for those who were not paying attention. I actually thought that further integration should have been limited to the EZ since the start. the others will follow.

IMHO UK clarifying its stance is good. giving the excuse to go with a 2 speed EU means also that EZ can speed up the steps towards more integration. In few words: the UK break is no more there.

 

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 07:59 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

eurosadism, yeah! I wonder if anybody remembers EFTA?

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EFTA

The FT claims Mr. Cameron has 80 tory backbencher that clamor for a EU referendum in the UK - oh, how I wish they would finally do one... and then? Back to EFTA?

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Actually the media in the US keeps pushing the lies of your leaders that someone is going to provide the much needed liquidity. It is a global crisis, but what you fail to realize is that the rest of the developed world is just as fucked as Europe. The EU will be the first to crash (Germany will not print), then it will be anyone's guess to know who crashes next. If we do have the vast exposure to your banks that ZH says, we will most likely be next. It also might be any of the property bubbles bursting in China, or any of the country's exporting their commodities to them.

The only problem I have with Ghordius and you is that you want Europe to be saved at all costs, so they can survive until the next crisis. Understand that what we are saying is that the WORLD ECONOMY IS FUCKED, not just Europe.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 10:03 | Link to Comment bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

or me and Ghordius can see how important EU is so the need of saving it at all costs. because those dearely costs, and the transformation they will bring, will become benefits in the long term.

no matter the crisis EU will survive, like the US or UK will survive. all of them changed but not destroyed. the post crisis world will be different but it's not gonna be the end of the world. when one realizes that then the long term become as important as the the short term, if not more.

I personally like this recipe to ride the crisis

http://www.leap2020.eu/Advice-to-the-G20-leaders-The-G20-s-three-strateg...

the 3 main points being:

  1. First priority: From 2012 (at the latest) launch the process for creating a new global reserve currency.
  2. Second priority: Put all the world’s major financial institutions under public tutelage, wholly or partly, from the beginning of 2013 at the latest. - The objective in this area is twofold: first to ensure that these institutions resist speculative temptations - although we already know that it isn’t possible to trust their leadership and / or private shareholders in this area; second, to organize a "gentle deflation", which doesn’t break the real economy, of the virtual economy.
  3. Third priority: At the end of 2012 launch a huge ten-year public infrastructure programme on a world scale.

read the whole article by leap/E2020 for details. i for example think that for the 1st priority EU can find allies in china, russia and others.

I don't hold my breath till when these priorities are embraced by politicians. things are going to get even nastier for politicians to abandon their financial pimps and embrace the rage of the voters.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"saving it at all costs" I hope this is a French hyperbole, "all" is a bit much

1. First priority reads a bit like "let's piss off the 'mericans", I prefere a "global currency" without the "reserve" part - which is best translated as "reserve" = "the only one that counts".

2. Second priority reads also very badly for USUK eyes - yes, the TBTF banks problem has to be solved, but it won't be nice. Restructuring is bad enough, through nationalization it's worse. USUK does hate nationalizations. Really hate them, they think it's worse then communism.

3. Third priority sounds like what China is doing or what the US did during the Depression.

I do like the EU, the only club of sovereigns that allows you to join and leave and join again, yes.

I also like the EZ, which is really not much more than an international multi-currency peg.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 16:37 | Link to Comment bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

yes, at "all" costs is obviously a hyperbole (but not a french one, a sardinian one). I actually just used the definition used by Bobbyrib himself. I should have used "...". and of course it is always a good idea to state your opinion and leave the others to state their own. :)

about UK, Cameron has officially stated that EU general interests collide with UK ones. that is going to generate repercussions on a political level isolating UK, also because it looks like noone has followed them.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 02:32 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

i wonder who's holding the bag on that counterparty risk?

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 03:18 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

No kidding, its all for not and most of europe know it.  The ones that want to keep the Euro are the bankers and the elite, because of their assets.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 05:26 | Link to Comment AntiLeMaire
AntiLeMaire's picture

>> Most people are focused on the PIIGS, when in fact, France is in terrible financial condition, also, and England has the highest official (unofficially, the numbers and percentages are all multiples higher) debt to GDP ratio, which stands at 1000%.

Ahum.
1: the UK is not a Eurozone (EZ) country.
2: yes their debt is shocking but it's not 1000% of GDP, it was ca 150% of GDP early 2011 when using comparable numbers.

The UK has problems, but they are not a problem for the Eurozone.

Please note that the numbers that you've heard for any EZ country INCLUDES the cost of financing failed banks and other financial institutions. The UK has been playing hide and seek with their numbers.

Debt to GDP (now): The average Debt to GDP ratio for the EZ countries is about 85% (that average includes all PIGS).
Finance deficit (YE 2011): The financing deficit for EZ countries at year end 2011 is estimated to be between 4-5% on average.
Import/export: The EZ countries have an export surplus (they make more money exporting goods than they have to pay for imports).

Compare this to the real problem countries, let me call them the 'USUK' countries:
Debt to GDP (now): US > 100%, UK> 150%
Finance deficit (YE 2011): US 10-13%, UK 12-15%
Import/export: serious export deficits, no end in sight (a slight improvement was noted for the US I think).

Note also that with the exception of Greece, none of the PIIGS has this string of bad numbers. E.g. Spain's Debt/GDP ratio is not even that bad (about 65%), most PIIGS have financing deficits at year end much lower than either UK or US. Most PIIGS have improving trade deficits, but like USUK they often still have export deficits. The PIIGS are mostly (i.e. except GR) improving their finance deficits, the UK and US are failing to do so; in fact the all important deficits are worsening for the USUK countries.

Most UK debt is held by non-UK entities. US idem ditto.
Compare this with Japan or Italy: most of their debt is held by their own citizens & pension funds. The EZ is a lendor, the amount owned to EZ institutes and individuals is larger that they amount owned by them to non-EZ entities. Compare this with USUK. The UK owes more money to foreign countries than the amount owned to them by others (by a very large margin, net deficit of more than 500 Billion GBP); and the US ..., well ask the Chinese ;).

So let's be realistic.
Who do you think can repay their debts: USUK or EZ?

The EZ is of comparable size to the US (the EU as a whole is larger), the UK is smaller than DE and comparable to or somewhat larger than say FR or IT.
The EZ central bank has done QE for about 200 Billion EUR.
The UK central bank has done QE for about 200 Billion GBP, an amount in the same order as the whole EZ (!).
The US central bank has done QE for a whopping 2000 Billion USD (not counting hidden & ongoing programs).
The UK's BoE bought 150% of the bonds issued by the UK government this year (the DMO issued GDP 40 B this year, the BoE bought 60 B, so the general market bought minus 20 B of that issue ... LOL).

So it is clear that the EZ has to increase printing money (ahum QE-ing) by a factor of 10 to come close to US and by a factor of about 6 to come on par with the UK.
Who do you think is printing it's way to massive inflation: USUK or EZ?

Ergo: the emperor has no clothes on.
When people start to realize that, what do you think happens with USD or GBP vs EUR ...?

Ceterum censeo OTC esse delendam

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 06:13 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

It would have been better had I specified total debt to GDP as a %, and not merely government debt, given the focus on sovereign debt as of late.

Assuming Haver Analytics, which I believe is a semi-independent affiliate of Morgan Stanley, has their data set in good shape, total debt (governmental, household, financial, non-financial) as a % of GDP is far and away the highest in the UK out of any developed nation in the world, at just under 1000%.

In  the developed world asylum of debt addicts, the UK is 'Chief Crazy Pills', full on lobotomy (and a huge reason why is their cesspool, gangrenous financial sector, which is a plague and scar upon the land):

http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/4edb70a56bb3f7b433000030/debt.png

 

And let me state, in anticipation of what I assume may be part of your response, that in the final analysis, if one assumes that this debt gets repaid, even if by devalued fiat and therefore as just a mere technicality and not truly in substance, there won't be any difference between how financial sector debt and governmental debt is prepped and treated, as the financial sector debt will all be nationalized anyways (thus ultimately becoming governmental debt).

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 06:43 | Link to Comment AntiLeMaire
AntiLeMaire's picture

OK I see & agree. I just wanted to make sure we use comparable numbers (i.e just government debt including already commited support for financial institution deficits).

I agree that the UK debt is even worse than 150%, but it's difficult to get real good comparable numbers when we start to include estimates of monies owned for such things as entitlements or future bank failures. I often see huge & differing numbers quoted for say the US on top of their already huge normal government debt, e.g. government pensions, social security entitlements etc). The 150% for the UK includes the money already spent by the UK on the banks; in that way we can compare it to say the IE numbers, which do include all monies spent on banks (otherwise IE would be fine).

I think it would be OK to include estimates for pension entitlements, for all the countries where those pensions are not (fully) funded.

For example in the Netherlands all government pensions are fully funded (i.e. are covered by monies invested in independant pension funds). In the US or UK, on the other hand, (most of) the government pensions have to paid from the current income, which implies that their total debt will increase significantly over time; or you could say that they have an even larger 'real' debt. To understand the amounts involved: one of those NL government pension funds (the APG, formerly ABP) has more than $300 billion in assets for about 2.7 million particpants. Scale that up to UK size & indeed the UK debt situation starts to look bleaker and bleaker.

On the other hand I'm not so sure that all debt assigned to Financials in that link you gave is really UK; couldn't it be that some of it is owed by the London offices of non-UK banks ? And yes when those banks fail than especially the US and UK ones will have a huge problem, given their current exposure in the OTC markets. And most of that additional debt will indeed need to be nationalised ... But how much? How many will fail?

Anyway I've seen several of these charts & they all seem different. So when comparing debt I like to use comparable numbers which are reasonably certain (comparing apples to apples). And in that sense the UK government debt is already on par with or worse than GR. Luckily the UK is not part of the EZ so they can simply do their silent default by devalueing GBP.

 

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Archduke
Archduke's picture

europe was always going to be a federation, with a single currency/trade/fiscal union.

how to get there was problematic due to cultural divergence and friction.

this cris is a godsend for eurocrats, and they are not about to waste it.

 

 

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:12 | Link to Comment SamThomas
SamThomas's picture

Better luck next time, "Max."  What a great show that was.  We could use a few re-runs now, to distract us from our depressing reality.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:17 | Link to Comment pkea
pkea's picture

Told ya so it's going to be march kick it one more last time

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:17 | Link to Comment pkea
pkea's picture

Told ya so it's going to be march kick it one more last time

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:19 | Link to Comment sunnydays
sunnydays's picture

Will they just finally admit the Euro is a complete failure and get it done with?!  Germany has it's Deutsche mark ready to go again.

They have managed to drag the game out for over a year.  Just end the Euro and get on with it.  All the B.S. is getting real old now. 

 

They know the Euro is dead and we know the Euro is dead - Let's have the frickin funeral now! 

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:33 | Link to Comment The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

Universal translation of the event.......................

"Ladies and Gentlemen.   The Merde, shitzen, and ca-ca, has hit the fan all at once.   Hence we will need lets say until March 2012 or so to clean the blades and try anew again.   Thank you for your vote of confidence going forth."

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:39 | Link to Comment SloSquez
SloSquez's picture

Sounds like a translation from someone who knows.  Seems simple and I agree.  Shoot it in the head and let it die.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:33 | Link to Comment SloSquez
SloSquez's picture

If your flyin', I'm riding.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bl2H7BD4Pig

Good to see you again CD!!

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:35 | Link to Comment Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

I'll be, Cameron and Merkel are Cancers. It's much easier to pick up the cards after the house collapses.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 09:25 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Cameron and Merkel are the problem? Do you know anything about what is going on?

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:12 | Link to Comment Mauibrad
Mauibrad's picture

That picture from the prior post seems so appropriate.  Greek guy shooting the finger.  Sarkozy with a side glance flown on his face.  And fat ass Merkel looking all worried staring straight ahead.  The handwriting was on the wall at that moment in their pow wow.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:23 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I have to say, thank you. Smart was so completely unrecognized for his genius.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 03:48 | Link to Comment ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

CD: That's what she said.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 03:48 | Link to Comment philipat
philipat's picture

1. Europe is bankrupt. Japan is bankrupt. The US is bankrupt.

2. The US is a single country so should be able to do the right things but can"t.

3. The Eurozone is 17 countries that want Germany to bail them all out. Germany won't do that, if only because there is democracy in Europe and the German people will NOT allow their Government to do that.

Any more questions?

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:05 | Link to Comment Martial
Martial's picture

oh well!

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:06 | Link to Comment Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

Sayonara Bitchez!

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:07 | Link to Comment drink or die
drink or die's picture

I just finished paying for my 2 month greek vacation on Priceline...what did I miss?

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:10 | Link to Comment Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Lets short this mfer to oblivion so our fence sitting brothers can finally get the nerve to get some chips out on the table.  When this bitch turns I for one am buying with both hands

 

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:14 | Link to Comment licutis
licutis's picture

I want Europe to epicly fail, but ffs! They couldn't even try and hold it together? They really deserve whatever they get, their leaders are completely incompetent. ES down 10 handles in the last half hour.

A new summit in March????? Are they just screwing with those of us who collect quarterly performance fees?

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:22 | Link to Comment Royal Fleming
Royal Fleming's picture

you change a few words around and you'd be talkin about our pres hussien and his govt of jerkoffs.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:10 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Is it time to activate the mines around my property? Load up the guns and hunker in the bunker?

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:30 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

no it's time to Stop Paying Your Taxes and funding the crooks

it'll speed up by a factor of 10 the peace and prosperity returning

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:10 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm seriously considering stopping all large payment, mortgage ,taxes , car payment just to speed up my precious metal purchases.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 04:32 | Link to Comment Yellow Tang
Yellow Tang's picture

You'll be so happy sat in your tent looking at the place where your PMs used to be because someone stole them out from under your sleeping bag.  At least you won't have to worry about you're going to get to work since your car got repo'd and then you lost your job.  And then your wife scopped up the kids and went to live with her mother.

 

Sounds like a plan.  Good luck with it.

 

P.S. The end is not coming and will never come.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 05:36 | Link to Comment James T. Kirk
James T. Kirk's picture

I would rather buy PM's and have someone steal them, then wake up one morning and realize what a loser I was, because I was foolish enough to be brainwashed into believing that fiat digits stored in computers had any enduring value.

PS: ALL civilizations colllapse eventually. The end is not coming and never will? You really need to see someone about that brain tumor, before it gets any bigger.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 10:57 | Link to Comment silverbullion
silverbullion's picture

@ Yellow Tang I suggest you read Mr. Ralph T. Foster's: Fiat Paper Money – The History and Evolution of Our Currency. If that doesn't wake you up, nothing will (no insult intended). 

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:30 | Link to Comment Nate H
Nate H's picture

es just went from up 8 to unched.

I expect a lot more movement before Mar 2012...

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:12 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

ECB 9000

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:25 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

"I can feel it.  I can feel it.  I'm losing my mind.  There is no doubt about it."

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:26 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

"Nigel. What are you doing Nigel?"
So I have some puts expiring next Friday. I was planning on doing some tax loss planning after killing it in August but now I think I might have an even bigger tax problem.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:18 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

I was just about to ask what image we use in a "Its not on like donkey kong, but its not off to the races" situation. Slow jams / slow fail.

 par excellence as usual WB7.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:12 | Link to Comment phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

So when does the looting and pillaging start? 

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:25 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

it started 40 years ago ...nobody looked under the window dressing of inflated house prices and Visa and Mastercard illusions of 'wealth' 

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:13 | Link to Comment Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

I will upload the red screen of death immediately.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:14 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

HAHAHAH ... called it. How'd I know?

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:28 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I know this one.
Zerohedge

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:43 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Whoever minus one'd me...
Fuck off.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 01:20 | Link to Comment Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

I would guess Robo. I gave you a 'tick' JPM... Try to understand he's still long Greek Bonds... kinda hurtin'

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 02:10 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I know who minus 2'd me.  You will see a horse head when you wake up tomorrow morning.

Feel Luck.  The minus one guy won't be waking up.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 04:34 | Link to Comment Yellow Tang
Yellow Tang's picture

Junked, for being serious.  Insert "you mad, bro" here.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:14 | Link to Comment flyonmywall
flyonmywall's picture

Hmmm...what are the odds now that all this macro crap is over and actual fundamentals might start to matter?

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:23 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

The odds of some printing press getting warmed up are very high at the moment.

US taxpayers getting the lube and applicator ready.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:31 | Link to Comment you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

yep.  except that Bernanke's already been printing away in secret.  now he's just going to up it by another trillion or two.  in the same way you can't directly observe a black hole, look at a green open tomorrow the way you would a planet getting sucked into a vortex.   we may not even get a chance for a decent dip in Au/Ag.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 01:10 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

Oh, they won't be using lube...

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:29 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I know this one too...

Odds = zero.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:17 | Link to Comment PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

market reaction not too bad yet

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:18 | Link to Comment phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

Its the folks praying for the QE oblivion rain tonight... 

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:22 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

No i think the Forex guys have all pissed their pants and are away from the trading desks in the Gents drying themselves under the hand dryers

service will be resumed soon as they're back

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:22 | Link to Comment PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

many wannabies praying everyday for Jesus, he still did not show up ( unless Obama is the new Jesus)

i don't see QE happening yet, after the crash may be.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:36 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

can Benny the Bankrupt afford a Eurozne crash?

i think the poor sod is 'fully invested' like a Las Vegas gambling bum he's so knee deep in rotten debt the only way out is to keep gambling

if Eurozone banks goes there blows Americas Wall Street betting junkies too

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:43 | Link to Comment PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

no matter what people say, BDM won't let market crash. We already been here. few hundred points at most.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:23 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

by 2am East coast time...it should be a bloodbath...unless they manage to produce some insane midnight rumor...which would not surprise me at all.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:26 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

...we begin bombing in 15 minutes.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:27 | Link to Comment PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

we will go for war but only if DOW will flirt with 9k level, before that just the retorics.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:25 | Link to Comment Royal Fleming
Royal Fleming's picture

because asian forex traders are fucktards

 

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:17 | Link to Comment phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

Why am I reminded of James Earl Jones saying "STUFF GONNA 'SPLODE!" on
David Letterman in 1999?

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:18 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Translation: tomorrow's summit is as of now an epic failure. 

well 14 meetings out of 14 in a row of epic hot air at least deserves a AAA rating for consistency! For achievement is there a rating below 'D' for Dunce?

i can't hold my breath until March though... is it ok i just carry on laughing my freekin head off until the Germans announce they're printing Deutschmarks in oh, about 2 weeks??

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:22 | Link to Comment SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

These dumbasses forgot to appoint a super duper committee of oh-so-coimmitted and credible deficit-cutters, before they try to punt a drop dead date this far out.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:51 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

yes March looks about as realistic for a resolution as Nancy Peloski-Trotski saying she was going for a $4 Trillion deficit cut when she donned spandex tights for the US super-duper-committee

how do we expect the Govt and banking that got themselves into this mess to get themselves out? ...it's like asking lunatics to draw up guidelines on sanity! 

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:19 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Cautious trading - and also thin Friday and weekend markets - as traders wait for comments out of EU Summit and the delayed Europe Council President Herman Van Rompuy comments for signs of any progress at EU Summit, or ongoing disagreement as EU comments start to stream in,.

EUR/USD back down at 1.3352-55, EUR/CHF at 1.2350-55, and USD/CHF at 0.9250-55. EUR/CHF off the 1-month highs of 1.2444 hit 7 Dec, highest since 8 Nov 1.2458 - as markets bought on expectation that SNB will lift EUR/CHF floor of 1.2000 higher given the fall in CPI. Speculation also of covert SNB demand, with Swiss supranational, sovereign buying on dips. But topside capped ahead of huge 1.2450/1.2500 option barriers. 1-m EUR/CHF vols lower at 10.4225%, vs 10.610%, as EUR/CHF away from the 1.2450/1.2500. R/r 1.48/2.43%. 3-m Vols 9.525/10.835% levels, r/r -1.28%/-0.36% - pointing to more downside views.

Huge EUR/CHF stoploss building on break of 1.2300 as market seen long buying above 1.2400 handle. Though good to watch for any more SNB rumours and Swiss supranational bids. USD/CHF at 0.9245-50, could dip on EUR/CHF sales again, as coments from EU continue to stream in. WL

http://www.fxmarketalerts.com/free/document.aspx?codes=0fe5e814-1122-e111-8fc8-00155d7cc701&IT=0&C=&DDID=0&P=1

 

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:19 | Link to Comment J 457
J 457's picture

Friday: Let the sell-off begin on failed EU talks.

Sat:  S&P downgrade

Mon: My Dec puts in the money!!!!!!!

Or, maybe another bullshit rumor tomorrow morning sends markets to the moon.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:50 | Link to Comment ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Sorry J457, but I see your last prediction as being the most correct. I'm trying to collect on my shorts and GTFO of this market.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:19 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

popcorn: check
beer: check
open short EUR/USD: check

and...GO!!!

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:26 | Link to Comment PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

euro won't go down much, some1 is protecting 1.32-33 level. Euro by now should be 1:1 with dollar, and specially after 2 rate cuts in less than a month

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:53 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

expect a Euro rally ...Jim Rogers is

funny thing when an economy tanks their currency goes ape-shit (see Japans)

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:58 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I thought Rogers was long the dollar. I'm not 100% certain but last I heard he was long the dollar.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:39 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

Nope. He was in the bloomberg studio two days ago on the "Survalence midday" program and he said he was long euro. when the host asked him what the exit level is he said "Hey I get my news from bloomberg" nice snarc. the host was only half amused. 

Between him, Faber and some of the other guest/conferences BB has been having, I actually dont miss CNBC absurd leisman/kramer type humor at all anymore.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:47 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I hadn't heard that. Thanks.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:54 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

np. he did not say exactly how much he was in it, but he did have pretty much have that exact exchange with the host.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:55 | Link to Comment janxeh
janxeh's picture

Yeah everyone seems to forget the swiss have put a floor under the eruro with unlimited francs.

The euro will plummet when that peg is removed.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:20 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Arrow's Impossiblity Theorem

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:21 | Link to Comment Worker Bee
Worker Bee's picture

Thank fucking god...can we get this show on the road already!

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:25 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Be very careful what you wish for.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:30 | Link to Comment Nate H
Nate H's picture

ya this is not good, even if you make a mint on your shorts, we are entering a time when a mint doesnt matter.

confidence can shift on a dime. I am rooting for change but not abrupt catastrophic change...

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:34 | Link to Comment Worker Bee
Worker Bee's picture

Im not wanting this to happen. Im a paramedic,not exactly alot of extra cash to prepare. What I do know is the longer this shit show goes on the worse it is going to be when it does hit the fan..Id rather take my medicine now so I can get on with the "new normal". I got a piece and a little extra grub and a lot of street smarts...thats about as good as its getting for me and mine...lets do this.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:55 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Being a paramedic brings a lot to the table during troubled times. You may not have a lot of cash to prepare but your skills will go a long way. They will be needed.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:37 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Agreed. I get to home office and travel and I have had trouble motivating. Starting to think I should starting working again if the fucking crash doesn't happen soon. Either that or the boss is going to ask why my expenses have been so low.

"well you see Stan. I figure the company could use the money more for my layoff severance."

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 09:33 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

You'll be lucky if your company's executives don't take the savings and put it into their bonuses.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:24 | Link to Comment PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

The News that there will be a new summit sometime next year will be enough for algos to melt up.

I don't see any drastic drama tomorrow. May be 100 pips in euro and AUD, and i bet PPT will defend the 12k DOW tomorrow

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:27 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

Well, from here till March we are going to see huge effects from this failure to communicate. This is going to speed up and get very messy for the next four months. God help us all!

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:28 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Herman Van Rompuy: Vee must create more fear amongst dee EU peasants.

 

Time Magazine needs to switch covers.

http://www.breakingcopy.com/time-magazine-december-5-covers

 

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:28 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

NEXT!

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:28 | Link to Comment PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

Unless S&P or Fitch will follow trough nothing will happenes. We won't even get september levels.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:34 | Link to Comment Keith Piccirillo
Keith Piccirillo's picture

Downgrades bitchez!

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:37 | Link to Comment Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

A very professional, pro active solution to the future plan to shred their treaty and currency. We shall put the decision off until it doesn't matter any longer.  Gollum.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:50 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

KTFC (Kick The Fuckan Can) Euro bitchez...

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 03:13 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Bay-

We'll see gold go screaming past 2K if this thing comes unwound in a rush-

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 09:35 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

It will take months for that to happen. First deflationary forces would pull gold back when the global economy crashes. The USD will appreciate in value as it has for the past couple months.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 11:04 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

It will take months for that to happen. First deflationary forces would pull gold back when the global economy crashes. The USD will appreciate in value as it has for the past couple months.

***************

Wrong-

Gold is going up for one reason only and that is credit/default risk-which happens during deflation-

Both the dollar and gold will be strong-

Hyper-inflation if it ever happens-is a few years down the road-

 

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 13:14 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture


Wrong-

Gold is going up for one reason only and that is credit/default risk-which happens during deflation-

Both the dollar and gold will be strong-

Hyper-inflation if it ever happens-is a few years down the road-

*******************

Are we watching the same market? Almost everytime the market pulls back, gold sells off. Explain why gold would go rise as the market goes down. The market goes down because it is afraid the EU will collapse, because of massive defaults.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:50 | Link to Comment Monetative Easing
Monetative Easing's picture

You guys know that even a disappointment at the summit won't result in end-times trading, right?  The ECB gave the banks USD funding and termed out their debt so this charade can go on for a long, long time or until/unless someone finally misses a coupon payment.  And even then, it won't be an Event Of Default.  

Remember kids, Policy makers can remain irrational much, much longer than shorts can remain solvent.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 04:40 | Link to Comment Yellow Tang
Yellow Tang's picture

That rational thinking will not be tolerated on this end-times blog.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:03 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

The leaders also agreed to explore the idea of providing bilateral loans to the International Monetary Fund totalling 200 billion euros, with 150 billion of that coming from the euro zone , to bolster IMF resources to tackle Europe's debt crisis.

That's exactly what Draghi said today was illegal under the EU Treaty and precisely what he said would not happen (ie. a back door bailout using EU funds funnelled through the IMF back to bailout Euro members)

Does any Eurocrats words not resemble a sham within 12 hours of being spoken???

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 02:39 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

Where is Timmy? Seriously this is all a set up, Not sure if you are based in the US but this current administration has a bunch of "rockstars" that get it honest from the campaign the bammer ran. Sure there are some old war axes like Clinton in there. But the rest for most part are a bunch of glory hogs with (literally) hollywood script writers at the beckon call.

When they find out the ECB cant make the loan, our US constitutional professor community organizer and future Supreme court Justice (hillary) will call GWB on the phone and ask him if he would have the US fill the gap. Is it constitutional?. GWB will say "Its just a fucking peice of paper. hell yeah have timmy give them as much US treasure as they need, thats why we tax the fuck out the hoopleheads"

And Timmay gets to shout "TIMMAY !!!!" as he cuts the check.

With less snarc, Bloomberg asia is saying they will use money from the IMF general fund. Then to backfill see the painfully accurate, snarky stuff above.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:09 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

wtf are these people on?

fraternities don't keep hours like these!

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:15 | Link to Comment Mutatto
Mutatto's picture

But, but, the frenchman said there would be no second chance!   He said failure would be catastrophic!

 

Nobody bought into that french drama queen this time!

 

lol

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:25 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

Where is Timmay?I bet you he's got one of those "I helped" faces on right now. Pay your taxes first shoeshine boy, then you can get some of mine and spend it at the cirque de ole.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:24 | Link to Comment ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Appears the Brits are having a bit of a tea party.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:25 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

this should send german indexes soarding in t-minus four hours.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:34 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

I'm sitting here watching the BBC broadcasting live from Brussels at 05:30 Central European Time. Neither Sarkozy, Dragi, Rompuy or any of the boys (or girls) are getting to bed early tonight.

Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!! 

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:38 | Link to Comment doduhdew
doduhdew's picture

Pre-market is up.  lol.  wtf?

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:38 | Link to Comment doduhdew
doduhdew's picture

Pre-market is up.  lol.  wtf?

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:47 | Link to Comment ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Stick save time...

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:52 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Who cares what the markets that are on crack (and cracked) do tonight or next week or month.

[Unless you're trading this POS and think you can consistently bob and weave successfully]

The meltdown will cometh, by hell or high water.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:53 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

all is good sell on rumor and fact, ECB Italian dude just spoke sh*t and made little sense.  Plus that awful EU president saying more verbal nosense.  C'mon UK spit the dummy... Merkel/Suckockzy are going to suck the life blood out of you.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 01:04 | Link to Comment Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Firesale Friday

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 01:16 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i think i figured out who junked everybody!

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 01:17 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

TREATY CHANGE ILLEGAL WITHOUT CONSENT OF ALL 27 EU MEMBERS

German magazin Der Spiegel reports a treaty change is unlikely, because there are lagal issues. EU legal experts say all 27 EU members have to agree on a treaty change. The monetary union is defined in the EU treaty. It would be illegal to make changes without the consent of all 27 EU members. This view is supported by the legal department of the European Commission, the ECB the General Secretariat of the EU Council.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,802582,00.html

 

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 01:19 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

then it's done and dusted. 

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