And The Winner Is...Gold
Year-to-date, Gold is up an impressive 9.4%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500 at +5.6% and the disappointing 2% loss (in price) for the 30Y bond.
Treasuries sold back off initial knee-jerk rally low yields into the close but the EUR kept going (holding above 1.3100) as Gold and Silver were the big winners on the day (+2.9% and 3.4% on the week now). Stocks and credit roared higher after an initial stumble post FOMC. Financials lagged among all the S&P sectors (and Utilities outperformed post FOMC statement +0.75% vs financials -0.25%). Right up until the close, credit and equity markets were on a tear but very soon after cash closed, futures limped back and HY credit snapped lower (quite dramatically) which makes some sense given just how ridiculously rich it had become to fair-value.
Gold handily outperforming this year.
After HYG signaled an early turn lower in credit and equities, the FOMC statement sent risk on a rip which didn't want to stop until it had taken out recent highs. Average trade size increased significantly once we got over recent swing highs and as is clear we leaked back into the close with quite a significant drop in HY as cash markets closed. The suspicion would be that CDS index levels were just being reracked by market-makers instead of heavy flow driving it up and then some real orders hit as we rolled over and the market hit a small void. We note that IG and HY are now at almost record levels of richness to their intrinsic value (and the 3s5s curves continue to flatten - bearishly in our view).
Commodities, as one might expect, enjoyed the limelight in what was on first glance a disappointing statement lacking any QE-specific expectations and ZIRP moves (it didn't seem that surprising to us). But the squeeze was obviously on in stocks and the reality that the only way the Fed has left to combat the ills of reality is to print drove Gold up to six-week highs over $1710.
Treasuries ripped and then dipped with 30Y ending up back near its high yields and the rest of the curve well off its low yields by the close.
Broadly speaking risk assets moved in a supportive manner for stocks (as is clear from the capital structure - left, and CONTEXT - right).
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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actually its silver - thoughts trav?
Expect to read the words "silver pumpers", "bagholders" and "I told you so" from him, regardless of whatever happens in the silver market, today or over the next three years.
ZIRP means "QE to infinity".
We hardly need Trav to tell us what that means going forward...although I'm sure he'll weigh in to let us know anyway.
GOLD & SILVER bitchez.
Calling Karl Denninger for a stupid vacuous incredulous rebuttal please.
No need to call Herr Forumfuhrer Doucheinger for a specific comment here --- you can read pretty much anything he has written if you merely want stupid and vacuous.
Now, if you want surrealistically hilarious, just read any of his inane ramblings attempting to address monetary theory or history --- they are comedic gold!
Ya know, he's gonna come on here and give you a demerit any moment now.
Maybe a pewter star is best.
I think alll these years I've blogged with the douchemeisterdingerhammer, he must be allergic to the PM's, or something.
Does he still have an audience? Him and Mish look like idiots right now.
Ignore those two.
These two men have done more for the human mind than anyone (or anyhing) else...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClV7B2xofVk&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQorzOS-F6w
Fish and Douche didn't listen.
I specifically told douche under my first TF handle that BB would print. I think I got banned for that.
Both of those guys were warned that their stupid FRN notes of a bankrupt state would not become priceless.
Fed is not bailing out gold
Fed is bailing out TBTF....BANK OF AMERICA
Fed is filling the sinking ship with more cargo.
Douchinger, sure.
But Mish has been bullish on gold since $900.
...Want some ketchup with that crow?
A red arrow from a Douchingerite is a badge of honor --- I wear each and every one of them proudly (just as I will wear the flayed skins of every one of his sycophantic deflationary flat-earthers in the coming years --- suitably lined with felt made from pieces of green linen).
Check it out! $13,000 gold price
http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/sites/default/files/1970%20ex-London%20...
I would like to see Jon Nadler, Jeffrey Christian, "Kid Dynamite" or Bron Sucheki try to explain that chart; their efforts would certainly be entertaining, to say the least.
Grrrrrrrrrrrrr....
I hope you have been following Ticker guy's financial advice:
Stuff your mattress full of soon-to-be-priceless FRN's, lose 30 pounds in weight, and repeat the mantra, "The banksters won't inflate, the Fed doesn't set interest rates, Ron Paul wants to stick a gun up mah sweet daughter's azzzzz".
Grrrrrrrrrrrr.........
Instead of calling himself "MarketTicker", it would be much more appropriate for Douchinger to call himself the "Market Tick", as he is utterly loathe to condemn the corrupt host from whom he sucked (paper) profits for so many years to his own advantage, regardless of the fact that said host has self-inflicted terminal cancer.
I just hope that Karl has a live feed going on the day that his beloved fiat dollar finally collapses, so that I can see his (atrophied) gray matter get splattered all over his camera, and my screen, as his enormously bloated head explodes as reality finally sinks into his excessively thick cranium.
Herr Forumfuhrer Doucheinger
Glad I was not drinking when I read that one AKAK. That is an original I imagine?
Yes, I can take credit for bestowing that title upon The Arrogant One.
Although it must be noted that the full, official title is actually "Herr Oberstgruppenforumfuhrer Karl Douchinger, Kaiser von Internetland und der Vater von die Tea Party".
Ok, Akak, cool it down a hair. He does have great math skills, but maybe had a visit from the matt simmons, hot tub guys. He didn't understand that always saying shit is just that. Too much shit. Too many opines, are worthless as the job that Washington DC does.
He figures being the top 1% is deserving of a strong opine. Having a log in on zerohedge is far more than I deserve, but I'll use it til the tap runs dry. Bitch and moan about the future and state of affairs, but realizing I am as helpless as anyone else. Funny how we attack anyone with out our total views.
As happens even here so often, you utterly miss the point, and raise a specious and insulting strawman argument to boot. I do NOT attack Karl Denninger merely for having a differing opinion on this or that, I attack and condemn him for his DISHONESTY and for the utterly malicious disinformation that he so frequently propagates on the subjects of gold, fiat currency and the role of central banking in our corrupted and failing economy and oligarchic financial system.
Karl is intelligent enough to recognize that it is not just the PLAYERS who are at fault here, but the SYSTEM itself that is corrupt and failing --- yet he implicitly defends it at every turn, and attacks those who dare point out both his ignorance (of monetary theory and history) and his many logical fallacies.
Douchinger isn't in the top 1%.
Forumfuhrer came from suckerforum.info where there are a lot of refugees from the TF cult.
Douchinger is actually a paper pusher who made money on the .com bubble. He wants paper markets forever so he can try to extract rent.
he's a confessed obama voter claiming to be the father of the real tea party which he now condems. figure that out for me and let me know what you come up with. Skitzo is what I call it.
Schizophrenic narcissistic sociopathic banksterphilic aurumphobic personality disorder, with delusions of forum grandeur.
"CUT THE CRaaAAAP AKAK BEFORE I START MAKING REFERENCES TO....ANAL STUFF!!!"
I've thought about cutting The DoucheKangs greatest rantomatopoeia in all their spittle inflected glory but it would just be too spooky.
LOL!
nice avatar. and i'll rebut: "why did treasury's rally again?" we're still "all heat and no light" in these here parts. i get that on the tele--or "trucker tele" as they call it now. can't help it that the "Less than Zero" set never had anything useful to do with their meaningless lives. Perhaps if they tried their hand at jumping out of an airplane at say...800 feet? anywho the knee jerk reaction of "inflation bitchez!" IS CORRECT. The question is HOW IS HE GETTING AWAY WITH IT!
+ 1, Bay, for PM diversification.
Platinum runs a little differently to Au and Ag, so add some Pt to your pile for even better diversification. Pt is historically cheap vs. Au.
Still, the Bearing likes King Gold best of all.
Great idea, and I've been buying since the carnage began in late 2011. The problem is inventory---there are almost no 1oz platinum coins available anywhere in the US at reasonable mark-ups.
Most dealers have been "out of stock" for over a month now.
just got back from the coin shop where i had hoped to pick up a few gold 1/10 oz'ers. no luck. out of stock. had to buy 40 morgans instead. stock is running low on junk silver as well.
Rolling with Silver, Bearing; it's the engineering metal! And besides that, it will increase in purchasing power more than gold.
Long silver.
And unicorns.
Hopium for free till 2020
Hopium has cost me up the ass. Are you getting a groupon deal?
Interest rates can and have been at near ZERO and still have no inflation. Evidence? Look around. Again and again I have to say, gold is more of a deflation hedge then it is one against inflation for obvious reasons. Deflation means uncertainty. Security over yield just like the US Treasuries. Why do they yield so little? Also, JPY, and yes I'll say it, USD. Where is the hyperinflation I was promised 4 years ago?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/premature-dollar-obit...
Once again, another disingenuous deflationary flat-earther who speciously declares "No hyperinflation yet!" even while his savings and income both continue to fall due to the same government-sponsored fiat currency depreciation that has been in effect for most of the past century.
Go look at a ten-year chart of gold, or silver, or cotton, or rubber, or corn, or wheat, or pork, or lead, or aluminum, or almost ANY commodity, and then try to tell me that there is little or no inflation, asswipe.
Ever since ZH appeared, the word hyperinflation has been thrown around by the likes of you as an inevitable event. You got it wrong and I strongly suspect you lack the understanding of the definition of inflation and especially it's causes.
Want to learn? Start here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybRZPDd-MNM
Could any of the commodities you listed above be subject to global economic growth, speculation, government intervention? I don't advocate government or Federal Reserve policies but please take time to understand the causes rather than defaulting back onto INFLATION.
Actually, you totally put words in my mouth --- and that is the nice way of saying it (the more direct way would be "You lie!"). I have NEVER claimed, here or elsewhere, that hyperinflation was inevitable or even highly likely, so I would thank you to directly address my own claims and statements, and not those of others with whom I have no connection.
As to the issue of inflation, yes, I fully understand the meaning(s) of the word, and that it is properly defined solely as an increase in the money supply, usually leading to higher prices and a depreciating currency. But using the word in the more colloquial sense, as the depreciation of a (fiat) currency and the concomitant rise in general prices, you cannot deny that what we are experiencing today, and HAVE been experiencing over the lifetimes of probably everybody here, has been "inflation" and certainly NOT deflation (i.e., a falling general price level). Indeed, there has NEVER been a deflation under a fiat currency regime, least of all during a time of exponentially rising governmental debt --- and I am not willing to bet any amount of money, least of all my entire life savings, that this time will be the very first.
If I have falsely accused you of being a hyperscaremonger, then I apologies. But as i suspected, your understanding of inflation and it's causes is totally flawed. Did you click on the links I provided you? Did you go to school today AKAK.
Mike Shedlock, like Karl Denninger, is clueless on monetary theory, and totally discredits himself from discussing monetary matters by his shallow and ignorant lumping-together of both money AND debt/credit, and thereby trying to claim that the decline in debt (and only individual, not governmental, debt at that) somehow constitutes "deflation", in opposition to virtually all non-statist monetary theorists as well as history and reality itself. He can try to define "deflation" however he wants, and thereby insist that it is happening today, but the average man on the street knows damn well that his dollars are purchasing LESS, not more, with each passing year, and fundamentally that is all that really matters.
Exponentially rising governmental debt, such as we are experiencing today, ALWAYS leads to depreciation of the currency, and the diminution if not devastation of both the average person's savings and their standard of living --- ALWAYS. There is not ONE historical example to the contrary.
I understand that but we are talking about is NOW. The average person, in the near past, is actually losing wealth in the form of money and credit availability. All the QE and quasi bank bailouts have not helped since it's not accessible to the average person and this is why Mish makes the point that an increasing government debt (public) has little effect, and besides, it's only a fraction of the decreasing private debt (deleveraging). Again, total sum of debts is decreasing. This is deflation. So why are commodities rising, well they're not all rising. Many are collapsing and I won't even mention houses and oil.
http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=16
That is both so simplistically wrong and so wildly misinformed that it makes my brain bleed to even read that profoundly ignorant argument yet again. Debt is NOT money --- it is as simple as that. Until you understand the fundamental difference between the two radically different entities, you are going to continue to fall prey to every monetary charlatan out there.
In our current system (assuming you live outside the "Axis of Evil"), MONEY IS DEBT. Every dollar (beside constitutionally minted coins) is credited into existence as DEBT. Here's another lesson.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dc3sKwwAaCU
Yes, I know that shallow and specious argument that you are trying to make --- I have encountered it countless times from the acolytes of both Mish and Douchinger.
The enormous mistake that you make is that you implicitly assume a commutative principle here that simply does not exist. Yes, dollars can be considered to be debt, so in that regard "money = debt". BUT, that does NOT in any way imply that ALL debt is therefore somehow money. This is such a failure in elementary logic that I consider myself debased in even having to address it, yet somehow so many out there continue to fall for it.
Look at dollars (money) as a simple subset of debt; one can NOT turn around and take the the larger set (debt) as a subset of the smaller set (money), nor take the subset as identical to the larger set. Beginning to get it yet?
Just to give you one example of why making this erroneous and facile "money = debt, debt = money" argument is demonstrably false, we should have seen absolutely GALLOPING inflation between the middle 1990s and 2008 as a result of the tremendous rise in personal debt combined with the rise in governmental debt --- somewhere well above 1000% --- and yet that was clearly not the case. It SHOULD have been, however, if debt = money = debt.
Sorry AKAK, by the swiftness of your response, you likely did not absorb much of the lesson. Goodbye.
It is you who is going to suffer in the future as a result of your miseducation on monetary matters and profound ignorance of monetary history, not I. It would be preferable to see you enlighten yourself and spare yourself from financial devastation (at least to some degree, as regards whatever savings you might possess), but clearly you have not considered my arguments whatsoever, so I leave you to your inevitable inflationary fate.
JFC, you are a fricking loser.
This guy tried real hard to be polite and you just can't help yourself from taking a verbal shit all over everything, can you?
What we use as money IS DEBT.
BUT NOT ALL DEBT IS FUCKING MONEY!!!
God, why can't you ignorant idiots grasp that simple fact already?
(Oops, I guess I just answered my own question.)
right now, it is.
You seem to struggle with the definition of IS like Clitton did. Typical for weasels and liars.
I've been wondering about this. How can they call this "credit contraction" deflation, and not call its opposite, credit expansion, inflation? Where were they when credit expanded to the current levels?
BINGO!
That is EXACTLY the point that I have raised with so many of the clueless deflationary flat-earthers. IF we can simplistically and blithely lump money + credit/debt together, then it necessarily follows that there should have been a MASSIVE inflationary wave from the early-mid 1990s until 2008, on the order of AT LEAST 1200%, to match the rise in private debt + public debt + the "real" money supply.
However, while there was indeed "inflation" (currency depreciation) during that period, it was nowhere even close to such a magnitude as 1200% or more. This is just ONE example where their facile and ridiculous deflationary theory falls apart, but they keep on bleating "deflation! deflation! Baaah! Baaah!" like good little sheep.
The fact that there has also NEVER been a deflation under a fiat currency regimes, ever, and that EVERY fiat currency has depreciated over the lifetime of each and every one of them, with not one historical example of a fiat currency ever appreciating in value, oddly seems to have zero impact on these people as well. The depth of their ignorance of financial and monetary history is profound.
I am, in fact, increasingly convinced that the majority, if not most, of those who rabidly disseminate this absurd deflationary line are actually disinformation agents for the political and financial powers-that-be, actively herding the sheep into taking financial actions that will MOST benefit the Establishment (such as holding depreciating dollars, or running like lemmings into US government debt), rather than taking the actions (such as buying and holding gold and silver) that would most benefit the individual savers and investor instead.
Akak - FYI, starting your post in italics prevents me and others from hitting the green arrow.
Sorry, BI --- I try to make my responses clear by beginning with the quote to which I am responding, but I know that it messes up the arrowing system for some reason. I will try to start such posts with a "." or something in the future to avoid that little problem.
you are officially the 2nd biggest idiot on ZH
Everything you just said is wrong.
And everything you say is a lie and/or full of shit.
You know, you disgusting collectivist piece of shit, it is interesting to note how very often you make sweeping assertions and accusations without offering any facts, or logical or rational arguments, to buttress them to even the slightest degree.
But thanks again for demonstrating your nature as a mean-spirited and purposefully antagonistic troll.
everything you said is still wrong. Insult and blather and pound the table all you want.
Psychological projection --- gotta love it!
I think I said ZIRP was forever
Silver is caught in the same price trap oil is
Ah it was a good day, Ja?
The funny thing is that its silver, even weighed down as much as it is by the depleted uranium anchor that is the paper silver market.
yeah, um, silver is at 33...gold didn't utterly collapse like silver did, losing countless bagholder victims of shameless pumpers their life's savings
Oh, there you are...spewing your nonsense again.
Welcome aboard douchebag...
Trav, my average price is $18. And I have bought a lot this last year. Wassup?
If my average were $40 I'd still be happy. The idiot banksters are losing control of the economy and their own balance sheets. My physical is not double counted, miscounted, misrepresented (other than to the downside, maybe) via some accounting wizardry called FASB, and still resides in my hands. The few stocks I have, well, not sure when those will be stolen, but probably soon.
Could care less what others think of my physical stack. It's there. I can touch it. Corzine proved to the world how corrupt these bitches are, and even having "segregated funds insured by the CME" means fuck all.
I bought some near the top last year, can't remember the price but definitely over 45$, and after the huge dump, didn't lose a wink of sleep over it - and still haven't.
If there is anyone out there with an incentive to buy, it is you.
Figure I would respond at the top of this chain...
Um, people at the top asked for me by name; was I supposed to disappoint? JFC, you people are never happy
Me too. I bought 400 oz at $47.75 per. I looked it up real quickly. On April 26, 2011. I believe Silver peaked on that day or on the 29th. My average is $29.50 per. For Gold, I'm currently doing better average at $1337 per.
And you had the chance to sell at $48. Wasup with that? If you had 1000 ounces at $18 that would have been a $30K profit. And now, you've lost $15k. And you think it's going well?
I unloaded half of my SLW position at $44 and the other half at $40 (I bought in at $15/share), I sold some producers there too. I won't ever sell my phys, that is not a trade, that is an investment.
I pay a premium for each oz I buy, why would I clip that profit trying to trade phys? I wouldn't. If I want to trade I will move back into miners.
We're always all such geniuses ex-post, aren't we.
Fact of the matter is, gold is a way better investment than silver. As simple as it gets.
Damn, twin brother. My cost average is also around $18.
But don't bother telling Trav about that. He doesn't understand what that means, thinking it means you bought all your silver at $18, and have been a "pumper shill" since that time.
Last year my average cost was around 40, I got out at high 40's thankfully.
This year Im less than 30 all in and both cash and metals ready for either way.
I am already in the money thanks to today and this week. I can simply just sit and watch. I hope for another run at the 50's
And taking advantage of the ratio I will eventually get into Gold and then the other metals. That way, it will absorb the blows and supports the profits.
Buy low, sell high. Remember your cost spread per ounce. Always.
Hey Trav, you STILL haven't addressed my cogent point that I have repeatedly addressed to you: For the vast number of investors who bought silver BEFORE it hit $30 leading up to its (transitory) price spike last year, exactly how are they all automatically "bagholders"?
I think he would rather die than address such questions.
And hey while we're at it, how about those of us that watched and never bought above $36? Some of us got out of paper and miners last year before the drop. Some people know how to trade metal. Wassup Trav?
Yep. I sold (paper) silver @ $44 for a nice 135% profit. Let's do it again this year. :-D
And it's still just crickets chirping from Trav.
Get back here and defend your specious argument, Trav7777, you cowardly piece of shit.
He saw it, and pretended to leave. He'll be back after it falls off the front page.
look, both you and akock's lives orbit around ZH. Mine doesn't. I don't sit around thinking "oh I can't WAIT to hear from cliff and akock on ZH, where are they!?!?!?" like you two idiots do.
What about silver at 18? Fuck, I bought at 6.52, dude, so GFY.
And yet you STILL refuse to acknowledge the fact that you have incessantly labeled EVERYONE who either bought silver at ANY TIME in 2011, or who even owned silver throughout the last year, regardless of when or at what price they might have purchased it, as a "bagholder".
Care to explain that sweeping accusation of yours?
(Trav's response)
LOL!
you must have absolutely no life whatsoever...
jeez it sucks to be you...sorry, man
And yet you STILL refuse to address my point, which devastates your ridiculous and nonsensical claims about silver "bagholders".
If you're going to try to be a bully, at least be good at it.
yes, your point that ALL the people who bought at $30 made next to no money is taken.
GENIUS, akock, PURE GENIUS.
You seem to think I would have been shitting on you silver pumpers at $20 or 10? Hell no, bitch, I would have said to buy.
The DIFFERENCE is that I wouldn't have cheerled people into a slaughterhouse like the two of you idiots from $40 onward into an OBVIOUS price bubble.
So you come in much later on these threads to defend your position?
Price bubble? Fuck you're dumb...no wonder you take so much abuse around here.
Note that you still didn't answer akak's question. I bet you won't address the fact that you have continuously talked shit about silver "bagholders" while yourself owning fucking silver either.
Clearly it is because you are a fucking coward and a hypocrite.
*Cue Trav's disappearance until thread is off the front page.
dude, what did I just tell you? My life doesn't ORBIT around what is posted on ZH like yours does.
I realize I am the wellspring from which you flow and if I weren't here, you would have no reason to exist.
You created tons of bagholders by shamelessly pumping silver. And you paint ME out to be the bad guy? ME, who told people NOT to listen to you?
I told everyone to ignore your stupid ass and your little chihuahua akock as the two of you were reckless silver pumpers and that people would lose a lot of money and/or opportunity cost by listening to anything you said. I said better prices were coming. I said NO 60 by next week.
ANYONE who bet on ANY prediction that YOU made in the past year did WAY WORSE than silver. They would have lost EVERYTHING. I doubt you could pick a fucking sports event. You'd probably "guarantee" SFO was going to win the superbowl after they already LOST last week.
You act as if because I don't respond to you sometimes that I must be disappearing? LOL, don't flatter yourself, chimp. I make a fool of you so frequently and you say stupid shit so often that it's a no-brainer to show up on ANY thread you'll be on if I want to do it again. You are literally like a crackwhore and I have $20 in my pocket. You're a sure thing.
"Gentlemen, Gentilemen...PLEASE get yourselves a room..."
the thread is in peril....again