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And The Winner Is...Gold
Year-to-date, Gold is up an impressive 9.4%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500 at +5.6% and the disappointing 2% loss (in price) for the 30Y bond.
Treasuries sold back off initial knee-jerk rally low yields into the close but the EUR kept going (holding above 1.3100) as Gold and Silver were the big winners on the day (+2.9% and 3.4% on the week now). Stocks and credit roared higher after an initial stumble post FOMC. Financials lagged among all the S&P sectors (and Utilities outperformed post FOMC statement +0.75% vs financials -0.25%). Right up until the close, credit and equity markets were on a tear but very soon after cash closed, futures limped back and HY credit snapped lower (quite dramatically) which makes some sense given just how ridiculously rich it had become to fair-value.
Gold handily outperforming this year.
After HYG signaled an early turn lower in credit and equities, the FOMC statement sent risk on a rip which didn't want to stop until it had taken out recent highs. Average trade size increased significantly once we got over recent swing highs and as is clear we leaked back into the close with quite a significant drop in HY as cash markets closed. The suspicion would be that CDS index levels were just being reracked by market-makers instead of heavy flow driving it up and then some real orders hit as we rolled over and the market hit a small void. We note that IG and HY are now at almost record levels of richness to their intrinsic value (and the 3s5s curves continue to flatten - bearishly in our view).
Commodities, as one might expect, enjoyed the limelight in what was on first glance a disappointing statement lacking any QE-specific expectations and ZIRP moves (it didn't seem that surprising to us). But the squeeze was obviously on in stocks and the reality that the only way the Fed has left to combat the ills of reality is to print drove Gold up to six-week highs over $1710.
Treasuries ripped and then dipped with 30Y ending up back near its high yields and the rest of the curve well off its low yields by the close.
Broadly speaking risk assets moved in a supportive manner for stocks (as is clear from the capital structure - left, and CONTEXT - right).
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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"wet dream" indeed. but the market has moved against all of us! simply distilling it all down to..."gold"...misses the point. Here's the point you all refuse to...see:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnNjUaiumtY&feature=player_detailpage
again: you need to revisit Mitt Romney's father's comment about..."brain washing."
how the fuck is that a "wet dream" to be living like Zimbabwe??
If gold is 170k, oil will be $10k/bbl
.
Well, starving and dying niggers for one.
If ridding the world of useless, wheel-less, water system-less niggers is not a Trav wet dream, I don't know what would be. But we have to remember that it is not their fault --- they are just a failed race.
(And for all you clueless morons who have red-arrowed every such post I have made, these are NOT my sentiments or opinions, but those of Trav7777, whom I am thereby mocking.)
horseshit, you fuckin liar. I have never used racial epithets like that.
You are red arrowed because you are a spineless loser and a prick.
Kill a nigger for Jesus.
Because, after all, niggers are a failed race (your words, not mine).
wasn't this one of your links? http://www.smartfellowspress.com/_doing01/0000002a.htm
Right, you just want to sterilize them all, and speak of them as if they were a collective, and all shared the same characteristics.
Nevermind that you are the DEFINITION of racist, in that you beleive that the differences between the races justifies discrimination.
no, I've routinely said that I would sterilize people without regard to race. Not a criteria I have EVER suggested.
As for that definition, every single clinical drug trial must be racist.
Continue on with your lying.
I just like the sounds of the coins klinking when I swim through them in my Scrooge McDuck-esk type vault.
Fiat paper just doesn't do it for me in this department.
Actually, the sounds would be more like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMyk7MXsseg
I wonder how long before the valuation of gold blows the valuation of Apple out of the water, like AAPL did to XOM today FFS.
Actually it's the anti-goldman trade.
Next up: ECB/BoE printing...
www.techtrades.blogspot.com
Volume still low.
And Mahmoud is woody
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xo0qg3_rt-l-inde-paie-son-petrole-irani...
English, french sub
Dow/Gold ratio 7.4 and going to -47. Nice to see the HUI move, too.
captcha fail here
it seems that there is a strong correlation between eur/usd and gold.
So i would assume.. those who wants gold to go up in price are rulling for the euro now?
Which planet are you on?
And the loser is .... fiat, once again.
A 100% historical failure rate should be a clue as to where we are heading.
This time will be different.
</sarc>
I'm warnin' you, the hangover is coming... Options are expiring on Thursday. You honestly think the Comex Criminals are going to let Gld/Slv take off like this on light volume?
The Comex Criminals are already piling on the long side. Big banks are going to make money long after You and me are both dead and buried. 40k open short contracts last May are now 15K. I would venture to say their net (short - long) position is even better. They can see the writing on the wall, and they are coming for the ride.
Gold is up 9%.. SO!
Silver is up 20%! or 30% in 3 weeks! SO! stick that in your pipe and smoke it!
i almost wanna take a few ounces and have em made into a pipe after reading this. stick this in your $5100 solid gold pipe and smoke it!
Man that's a great idea. Anti-microbial too!
We're going to be rich.
Said Before
What can they say? The Fed that is.
Today we'll hear from them regarding their two day meeting, what can they possibly say? Certainly not the truth, about anything. The truth is, the Fed has one and only one policy option left. They have one and only "mandate" left. They can only print new currency ...credit... they MUST. The Fed is now the largest buyer of new U.S. Treasuries and as of a few months ago became THE largest holder of Treasuries surpassing the now declining holdings of China.
The Fed also must prevent Europe from imploding by extending credit there. The raw, real and natural marketplace has already closed the credit spigots to Europe. Of course in recent days there has been great effort by the maistream media to break any linkage of thought or logic to the "globalization" that took hundreds of years to attain and was drummed into investors as such a "good thing".
The spin now is that Europe won't "really" be affected by a Greek default ...or Portugal...or Spain...or Italy... and since Europe won't be affected, neither will the U.S. banking system. In fact, we are being told ...warned of what already is... that Europe will enter a recession this year but not to worry, this won't affect us! No, nothing bad ...even if it could happen... has any ramifications on anything else and cannot spread... "it will be contained".
Remember the word "contained"?
Alan Greenspan told this lie regarding the housing and mortgage markets. How did that work out? No, nevermind logic, common sense or anything else, just listen to what they say and follow the sheeple to slaughter. Anyone with a brain bigger than a peanut should by now know that everything, ALL along has been BS.
There are no markets anymore in anything.
Everything and every market is "massaged", manipulated and "used" as propaganda. The fact is, everything has become fraudulent and nothing is as it seems even if it seems bad.
Which leads to this... how anyone, anywhere, can argue that Gold and Silver medium or long term are not THE no brainer, must have never looked at the best investments of the last 235 years! Americans have been "brainwashed" ... "washed" as in cleansed of any and all logic... against precious metals but we are at a point where the Fed CAN ONLY print...AND...everyone WANTS them to print!
Did only 1% of school aged children stay awake during history, economics or logic class? Are the "goldbug 1%" of the population drinking from a different and untainted water supply?
"Trust" yourselves and your "gut", the only policy response left is to print the global financial system into a hyperinflationary ditch. Then, "we" will have other problems, no longer will be the "fringe lunatics".
No!
Gold will be to blame!
www.lemetropolecafe.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=qRPldELzZXA
HEADCOUNT!
Great vid. Thanks...
SD - Great video, everyone take a peak at it...
But...But...But...
Writers of the ilk of Karl Douchenigger and Smokey(Jim)Quinn tell everyone that the 21st Century Nazis would never lie about 9/11.
Why... if you even try to comment on 9/11Truths you will be immediately and obscenely attacked and banned.
The "such like" and "such as" 1st Amendment does not apply on their blogs.
Their ignorance on certain topics is downright astonishing.
Great video, clear and well produced.
Nothing to see here Bitchez, move along. Obey, one can obey.
Yadda! Yadda! Yadda!
Keep looking down at your feet while walking and BAM! Walk right into a post!
Paying all this attention to the day-to-day up/downs of the market is the same.
Look up! Look at the BIG picture! Are the fundos changing? Did the FOMC meeting change everything for the better? Is unemployment going down? Has the housing sector healed itself? Have foreclosures stopped? Is the price of food and fuel going down? Has the different levels of government stopped borrowing money? Has the Fed stopped printing money? How about Europe? Are they healthy now? The Middle-East is now all peaceful and contented? China won't experiance a down turn?
As long as the fundos remain the same, or worsen as they have been doing, keep stacking and STOP fretting about the day-to-day bullshit that happens on Wall street and Washington. Chill Bro!
And the loser is...Dennis Gartman.
CNBC
Too bad Dennis is not The Biggest Loser --- his waistline could use a good deal of deflation.
25 day look-back is key.
Don't you think this embargo on Iran is meant to act as a trigger or catalyst for the devalutation of the U.S dollar? If India is going to be using Gold instead of the USD, won’t other countries do the same thing which will make Iran stronger, and the U.S dollar less and less valuable?
My take,
Bank Holiday and a 40% Dollar devaluation this year!
Why announce a devaluation of 40% creating chaos when you can just devalue it by 40% anyway and just wait for everyone to realize? And what's with the 40% number? Is this some magic number that they have to re-use because of FDR? I don't think so.
If you believe the Fed's numbers are bullshit why would you even believe the monetary figures? I wouldn't be surprised if it continues gradually and then one day, without notice, pop.
I think the 40% number keeps coming up because it's one of the numbers that "fixes" one particular set of fiscal issues, but it doesn't address any of the longer-term systemic issues.
I agree with you, they're just going to print and devalue over time, and mostly likely one day everyone will wake up to this -- that will be the day after creditors wake up to this, which may be never if it's just sovereigns/central banks buying each other's crap. It could also be tomorrow.
The problem is that everyone has to play along or it won't work, and it already looks like China, India and Iran already won't play that game, and I wouldn't be shocked if Russia is on that list too. Anyone with an economy not dependent on FIRE has a pretty strong incentive to bail out of this arrangement eventually.
John Williams said silver may go to $220 an ounce. Is that based on his inflation projections? Anyone know?
He's talking about inflation adjusted nominal terms.
Silver's high in 1980 of $49 and change in today's inflation adjusted terms is roughly $220.
He's basically saying to hit the new nominal high (accounting for inflation) silver would have to reach $220 and he's betting that it will hit that and surpass it because of a variety of factors like: considerably less supply above ground than 30 years ago, high inflation, negative real interest rates, the "springboard" metaphor with regard to manipulation and price discovery suppression using paper vehicles like SLV and GLD... and the list goes on.
He has similar predictions for gold but his basic starting point is that you take inflation adjusted dollars from the highs and apply that to where we are today. The trick is using the real inflation numbers and not the ones the government dishes out. He has a lot of valuable data on his site: www.shadowstats.com
He used to say it's inflationed adjusted high was $140, but he's since changed that in 2012. The KWN interview was the first time I heard him mention $220, but I can see where he's going with it.
He also said that hyperinflation won't be held off past 2014 and I think it's funny that ZIRP is now extended until basically 2014.
Coincidence?
Thanks tekhneek. Makes sense.
Where are the gold bears? They seem to have gone silent.
I thought it was ammo
Actually, the winner today was silver, bitchez.
GOLD +44.40 1714.00 +2.66%
SILVER +1.22 33.53 +3.81%
Re Year-to-date, Gold is up an impressive 9.4%...
Wow! And I thought I was doin' well - only up a measly 300% ytd (yes- you heard that right: THREE HUNDRED PERCENT) on my NY Giants play-off investment.
Thank you - and don't forget to have a Nice Day ;)
dennenger the wild one .. bet him a 10 oz pile of silver he was a clown ..
asked him to have sex with 20$ bill.. and assorted pile on's
he has now banned all transactions from my address even to address his page.
his hopkum was smelling years ago.
and his smiling face is to impress the media . as his desire is to bask in the light of the all smiling fox network logo ..
a social climber and hopes of infinate admiration
dude, I got banned from TF four fuckin times...what took you so long?
Everything that's wrong with TF, people HERE try to turn ZH into.
Most people would have taken the hint after the first banning --- or lacked any desire to return to such a rigidly controlled, intolerant forum in the first place.
Clearly, you are a glutton for punishment.
...says the guy who tried to lead a CAMPAIGN HERE to ban someone he doesn't like...twice?
The difference between Douchinger and you is he just has his own website. You frickin hypocrite.
Hey Trav, you STILL haven't responded to the question that I have repeatedly tried to get you to address: For the vast number of investors who bought silver BEFORE it hit $30 leading up to its brief price spike last year, exactly how are they all automatically "bagholders"?
Trav is a bagholder because he bought at $6 the six handle.
"HEY LOOK OVER THERE!!!!" - akock
fuckin bitch.
Dodging the question with bluster and ad hominem. How cowardly.
The winner is not gold, it is oil. No rate hike until 2015? Do you get a feeling something kind of spooky is going to happen about 24 months from now? Why does the rate hike coincide with the year that the world production of crude will not be able to supply the world demand for crude?
Why no rate hike before Obama's final year as president?
This type of stuff makes me so mad I just want to kill cats.
Besides all of the essentials (food, water, guns&ammo, alcohol, PMs, medicine, cord wood, seeds), is there any reason to keep a fair amount of FRNs around? <---not a rhetorical question
Yes. It's pretty well established in the early stages of collapse that cash works, credit doesn't, and no one takes gold/silver seriously yet. FerFAL is a pretty good resource for early-stage collapse reality.
+ 1
Cash is good to have around. I advise everyone to have 3 - 6 months worth of expenses if possible.
They could have a Bank Holiday and ban use of credit cards and ATMs. Cash in ANY short term situation will be taken at the supermarkets.
Great reply seek, I really like the way you post.
That is sound advice. Any sort of approach towards investing/survival should teach having 6 months cash on hand, but in order to do that one must first have an accute sense of 6 months of expenses. :)
Its not an easy thing to do, but should be considered a necessity for everyone.
Ferfal has a lot of pretty good insights into functioning and surviving during and after a currency and/or economic collapse, but like the average Western citizen, he is (or at least used to be) fundamentally clueless on the value of gold and silver, and how to wisely buy, sell and trade the precious metals (hint: doing it at a flea market is NOT the way to go --- just as one does not sell a Rembrandt at a pawn shop).
maybe that's all he had access to, you fuckin retard.
Yeah, YOU go ahead and take a shit on a guy ACTUALLY LIVING it, from your climate controlled couch.
You are a BITCH in every sense of the word.
Well, I'm going to stick with my main man Roubini - that 'where's your $2000 gold' tweet he sent out was such a compelling bit of analysis, I mean, how could he be wrong? Sure those short positions I put on at 1550 are hurting a bit now, but I'm going to stick with that solid fundamental/technical analysis of this awesome, world class economist - I'm sure vindication will come soon enough! /sarc
http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=17
Silver really hammered but OJ.......
But, but, but...Soros says gold is "...the ultimate buble..."
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/01/22/george-soros-on-the-com...
The inflamed, infected and bleeding pustule on the ass of the world that is George Soros, and his malignant, psychopathic neo-feudalistic political agenda, is the REAL "ultimate bubble".
DanDaley
But, but, but...Soros says gold is "...the ultimate buble..."
Guess thats why the Commie turd bought JUST back into that BUBBLE.............yes him did, he like him some o dat Gold.
what shall that shiny, gold, nugget be worth?
Soros will be shitting bricks - and they won't be gold.
FFFFFFFFFFFFF.... and I was on cusp of buying some gold over the last couple days... le sigh.
It will be back down or raise some more cash =)
Would you rather tell people to keep their money in a bank, or mattress than metal? Yes; I know some of you are able to trade and make much more doing that.
Silver is still discounted. Keep buying while you can!
My wife and kids bought be a pirate hat for my birthday because i sometimes like to break out my silver and sort of frolic in it. the sounds of the coins when they ring off each other is like music to my ears.
One simply can't own enough.
Mommy, why is the price of gold going up?
HAHAHAHAHA.
Sell, sell, sell. We're entering a bear market for gold. Unload it all while you still can! HAHAHAHAH.
Sell it to me.
what price will gold have to be to allow the US to return to the gold standard, today?
Am I too late? Was just about to buy some gold phys but yesterday's spike got me scared.
I know and understand the fundementals with this crazy debt taking and inflation so I know that my only option to preserve my current miniscule wealth is with PMs.
So, I humbly ask for your advice, is gold "too high" now and/or should I wait for some time for it to drop to get more with my fiat?
Is there some kind of "big events" coming that could drop the price of gold?
Living in Europe and first post at ZH btw :)
Wish I could help you more mushioov, but one must acknowledge that gold has been and will likely continue to be in a long-term uptrend, so any attempt to bet on a lower future entry price at which to make one's purchase(s) is betting against the trend. That said, I think the simplest and best advice would be to buy spend half of what you want to spend in total now, or soon, and hold back the other half in case any near-term decline in price should occur.
Thank you sir. I will probably do just that and go with my gut.
One point that I think I should make here: sudden upturns in price such as we witnessed yesterday are often immediatly followed by short-term declines in price of similar magnitude. If I were in your shoes, I would not react to any feelings of panic or being "too late", and see what happens in the gold market today and perhaps into next week. Just my two cents.
PS: Welcome to ZeroHedge! Bienvenidos, Bienvenue i Witamy!
No, you are not too late. Like any investment, don't go all in, wait for dips and buy. Consider Silver as your first bullion purchase since it is more affordable. I have been buying physical Gold and Silver in small amounts over the last 10 years each month, and have been greatly impressed with how quickly its adds up.
Buy fractional gold if necessary to start.
My advice would be to never ever ever ever buy collectible coins, unless that is your hobby. If you are buying as a hedge, Gold is Gold and Silver is Silver and there is no reason to pay the extra premium for "collectibles".
Gold buying season in India starts in August (for Diwali festival) and is worth paying attention to.
I'm really not a gold bug, especially not as an etf, but maybe this graph can be of use:
(it's ishares gold vs dow jones index vs wti crude index vs inflation index vs ust 10y)
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA:IAU,INDEXDJX:.DJI,INDEXDJX:DJUB...