Andy Lees On China Coup Rumors

Tyler Durden's picture

Earlier this morning, there have been some completely unfounded speculation of a Chinese coup. And this is all. To get some additional color, we go to Chinese macro expert Andy Lees, who incidentally has have left the churn factory known as UBS, and is now at AML Macro Ideas. Here is his take.

I am an hour and a half behind the market, but there has been some chatter of a coup in China. An article on the web says "Over the night of March 19th and early morning of March 20th, Beijing local time, a message about a large number of military police showing up in Beijing spread widely across microblogs in mainland China. The key figures in the action are said to be Hu Jianto, the head of the CCP, Wen Jiabao, the premier; Zhou Yongkjang who has control of the People's Republic of China's police forces; and Bo Xilai who was dismissed from his post as the head of Chongqing City Communist Party on March 15th by Wen Jiabao after a scandal involving Bo's former police chief". The article does not really say anything beyond that. Some people have dismissed the troops as security for a North Korean delegation. It could also be to head off any demonstrations against the fuel price hikes.

 

A second article says that around New Year's day 2 airforce officers were arrested on suspicion of plotting a coup, and a nuclear submarine on potrol was ordered back to port because they were thought to have links with the plotters.

 

There may be absolutely no truth in any of this, but if there is the possible consequences could be enormous for the global economy, for Chinese economic policy response - (remember the cheques that Saudi Arabia wrote to buy calm in the Arab Spring) - and for market volatility generally. 

So there you have it: in short - it may be too early to discount anything, especially in the aftermath of the Bo Xilai party coup. One thing is certain, do not expect to find any media confirmation or validation of these rumors.

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GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Crap.....thought it was just a rumor.

 

Oh regional Indian's picture

Hah! At least it is a rumor fit for March 20th, Spring Equinox.

And if this is just the rumor mill, what does the rest of the day portend?

Awesome. More cracks in the Dyke!

Who? Tsing-Tao!

ori

/if-i-ever-saw-a-sign/

Add-on : I'm clearly getting soft. Of course, both China AND Russia will face all kinds of trouble, because they will not let NATOUSA bomb Syria to democracy.

number cruncher's picture

well if true that is the largest black swan event to hit the earth yet... the real economic data comes out of china

BW's picture

So you think your going to protect Iran, China?

Iranian oil bourse starts today not priced in USD's.

kridkrid's picture

SWIFT action happens 3 days earlier.  When does the the Enterprise arrive?  The russians show up in Syria, 3 aircraft carriers head to the region, Iran gets cut off from the international banking community, Iran begins to sell oil not priced in FRNs...get ready, cause it's coming.

mrgneiss's picture

If there is a coup anywhere, it might be where the government has covered up 60 + years of alien contacts,  Ex Canadian Defense Minister admits the existence of aliens and UFO's:

http://poleshift.ning.com/forum/topics/breaking-the-cover-ups-disclosure-is-welcoming

 

Spirit Of Truth's picture

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2012/03/rumors-of-military-coup-in-...

"Behind the mask of diplomatic and political cooperation and partnership with the United States and Europe, the current Russian leaders are following the strategy of their predecessors and working towards a 'New World Order'. When the right moment comes the mask will be dropped and the Russians with Chinese help will seek to impose their system on the West on their own terms..." - Anatoliy Golitsyn's Memorandum to the CIA: FEBRUARY 1993 - The Importance Of The Strategic Factor In Assessing Developments In Russian And Communist China

dwdollar's picture

LOL... This is America's wet dream... to engage them militarily, instead of, you know, becoming more productive and competing that way.

RocketmanBob's picture

You don't really believe that, do you? Because it's a pretty absurd scenario to posit...

One doesn't try to militarily engage a country who's army is an appreciable fraction of the entire US population. And nuclear weapons are out of the question...

A Naval encounter would be one thing, perhaps, but there's no way the US is going to get into a shooting war with the Chinese.

With all due respect...

UGrev's picture

You must be forgetting a few "conflicts" where we did engage the Chinese. 

Spirit Of Truth's picture

A coup in China at this point would fit my global bipolar disorder hypothesis.

Let's hope this is just a bogus rumor, however I believe ultimately Jeff Nyquist's warnings will prove true about the stupidity of dealings with China: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=621kb9seuf8

Anytime the Communists want now they can pull the rug out from under global Capitalism and this has been the strategy all along.

Schmuck Raker's picture

It IS just a rumor.

If there's an 'Official Denial' you can go ahead and freak right the fcuk out.

Sudden Debt's picture

Operation: "We've got it under control"

chinaguy's picture

repost

Yes, I received a 1/2 dozen frantic e-mails from friends in China last night seeking offshore news....

And if you think that the media here would run the story with out official sanctions...then read this...If the white house says "no story"...they pull the story

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/why-is-the-story-about-malia-obama-vacationing-in-mexico-disappearing-from-the-web/

 

ReallySparky's picture

I saw the story yesterday on Drudge. Link is dead and gone now. Our news is censored.

Edit: just checked Drudge has it up again with a different link now. Wonder how long until that link is dead.

Born-Again Bankster's picture

Agree about media censorship, but not hard to see why the President wouldn't want his daughter's travel plans going viral.  25 secret service agents ain't nothing to the Mexican cartel. 

LongSoupLine's picture

Year of the Drag-on...

Oh regional Indian's picture

Long Soup, that was hilarious! :-)

ori

LongSoupLine's picture

yeah ori, I'm good for surges of brain dopamine once in a blue moon...I'm no Million Dollar Bonus though.  That guy's got mad skills.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

If MDB doesn't 'friend' me on ZH chat I'm going to be pissed for weeks...

kridkrid's picture

No Soup Line... I was floored yesterday when my local sports radio station had an ad for SNAP... It was so upbeat... it PITCHED so hard for people to find out if they qualify for SNAP... and there was a local number to call.  Who is paying for that ad?  45 million and climbing... and an ad blitz to increase those numbers even further.  

LongSoupLine's picture

krid, now that's recovery.

kridkrid's picture

sure... my 25 minute commute is generating ad revenue so they can keep giving me my distraction.  Of course when I consider that my taxes are going towards the spots that are encouraging more people still to go on food stamps... well... that kind of interupts my distraction.  I guess I'll have to stop listening to the radio.

Doubleguns's picture

Just making sure the bread and circus gets properly distributed to ensure maximum distraction from what the other hand is doing!!!

ixus's picture

Bo Xilai  was the first thing that came to mind for me. 

If there's a coup, you can be sure the US will hit Iran.

 

 

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Maybe Iran will just surrender.....ok......probably not.

 

Quinvarius's picture

No.  You can be sure the US will be hit over Iran.

Doubleguns's picture

And the homeland security budget will increase exponentially while citizens rights will decrease in kind (but its for your protection, its for the kids.... Ad Hominem)  Think there is a plan in the works?

ixus's picture

Oh, and didn't Art Cashin mention a power stuggle last week?

bugs_'s picture

Yes Art gave this to us last week.

LikeClockwork's picture

No tanks? BOOORRRIIIIIINNGGGG.

DormRoom's picture

There is no way this is true.  Most of the powerful Chinese generals are gettting mega rich off control or stakes in Chinese state owned companies.

 

The current regime ensures their wealth & prosperity will grow.

 

Also the Epoch Times is very biased against the regime.   The paper is a mouth piece , and communication tool of the Falun Gong movement, which has been crushed in China.

Global Hunter's picture

as Russian troops land in Syria it would make sense to try and destabilize China from the NATO and UN's perspective to keep them focused internally rather than helping Iran/Syria.  Maybe some of those generals just cashed a cheque?  Maybe its not true but don't you get the sense the lid is blowing off and as such how can you confirm or deny?

azzhatter's picture

just feels like something totally not good is coming, can't even identify from where

DormRoom's picture

Uhmm.. If NATO & the US were exposed in coordinating a coup there would be huge blowback.  And I don't believe Obama, or Merkel are foolish enough to make such a move, given all the other issues on the table.

 

The easiest explanation arises from denying the premise of the Epoch Times article, which Andy Lee references, as hearsay, and a wish fulfillment echo chamber.

 

What's interesting is how the financial market reacts to a slowdown in China, and the probability of the commodity bubble popping.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-20/china-steel-growth-has-flattene...

 

Shizzmoney's picture

TBH, I bet any coup that came out of China would be grassroots, and probably a suprise to Western Governments, who have their minds onto other things.

Remember, there is a subversive internet culture in China (which Nouriel alluded to in his tweets like it was news; sht has been a moonlanding for 4+ years).  Television streaming, Twitter, even BitTorrents to an extent.....all improved under Chinese innovation spurred on by an oppressive government when it comes to speech and content rights. 

Hell, TVAnts was invented just so Chinese people could watch Yao Ming 4 times a week (instead of the 1 game/week State TV would show them).

kridkrid's picture

Who is going to expose them?  The same people looking into Building 7 or the false narratives provided for our military excursions?  I used to think the way you do... I used to hide behind "Occam's Razor" for all sorts of things.  It doesn't mean that every rumor has to be true... but nothing is more absurd than "fire brought down building 7".  

sessinpo's picture

DormRoom

There is no way this is true.  Most of the powerful Chinese generals are gettting mega rich off control or stakes in Chinese state owned companies.

 The current regime ensures their wealth & prosperity will grow.

 

Comment:

Until you reach a point where the generals are powerful and bold enough to decide I will take power instead waiting for the beaurocrats give it to me. All I need is a little media and general population support.

Vince Clortho's picture

Don't discount human nature.

Wealth and power breed Greed.

You can never get enough once you get a taste.

I am sure some of those Generals feel they are not getting their proper share of the pie.

dick cheneys ghost's picture

Conceived of and underwritten by Wall St Banks?

bigwavedave's picture

just a distraction for the silver smackdown today

Sudden Debt's picture

Let them run it down! I've got a trigger finger that goes at 28$!!

SELL IT CHEAP!!

TO ME!!!!

 

Sudden Debt's picture

I've heard that the Mongols also had a near rumor Coup this morning!!!!

DOW 3000 HERE WE COME!!!

RSDallas's picture

Where there is smoke there is often fire.

kralizec's picture

Maybe Hu shut down part of the city so a bunch of hookers could get expressed to CCP HQ!

williambanzai7's picture

Why bother when you can just go to a barber shop after 10?

Doña K's picture

I am not sure if many westerners know the meaning of this! 

JohnKozac's picture

Do you mean soup? I read there is a severe shortage of shark fin soup in Beijing.