Hours after the details of the Euro Summit were released when it became clear it will be yet another failure, following a drop in the Euro Basis Swap by 10 bps to 127 bps, to week earlier levels, and not following a rise in the all important EURUSD, it was time to recycle old rumors all over again, knowing full well some positive market reaction had to be engendered or else the entire rally of the past two weeks would be undone, here comes the latest regurgitation of the tried and (very much un)true "China to Rescue the World"TM rumor, this time from Reuters. The media company which has become the latest conduit of favorable market rumors says that "China's central bank plans to create a new vehicle to manage investment funds worth a total of $300 billion to improve returns on the world's largest stockpile of foreign exchange reserves, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The vehicle would operate two funds, one targeting investments in the United States and the other focused on Europe, said the source, who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter. The vehicle's goal is to make more aggressive overseas investments for higher returns, said the source along with a second, independent source, who also declined to be named." So far so good. And the bad news: "Details of the venture are still under discussion but key personnel for managing the venture have been agreed upon, the sources said." Oh, and the funds have names, but that's all. So to summarize: details are unknown, China growth is collapsing, home prices and inflation are supposedly plunging, and it is now conventional wisdom that the PBoC will have to bail out China all over again from a hard landing, but... the key personnel for a fund that may or may not exist and which will have no impact whatsoever on the $2 trillion in rolling European debt over the next two years, have been selected? And futures are up on this?
The overnight agreement by 17 European countries to tighten euro-area budget controls and expand bailout funds fails to address key aspects of the crisis and may fall at the first hurdle, analysts and investors say. The summary of various Wall Street expert opinions is compiled and presented below from Bloomberg. It is not pretty.
Nothing really new here or unexpected or earth shattering or even approved. The bilateral loan thing is new (subject to confirmation) but something about that seems too bizarre to get excited about. If they have the EUR 200 billion lying around to lend, why use the IMF. In the end I don’t see much here. I cannot imagine we are going to get any new support from the ECB on the back of this. I don’t think this is enough to get the rating agencies to take the countries off of watch. Nothing has been really agreed to. I’m not even sure that if everything is implemented it is enough to avoid some countries getting downgraded. Since I started reading this, markets have improved a bit, but once again, as people read more and get past the headlines and the lipstick, this is very disappointing. The UK has taken a further step away from the EU and may have opened the door for more countries to take that step over time since everything that was “agreed to” still needs to be ratified and implemented and defined.
While Draghi somewhat shut the door on the ECB being the lender of last resort today, there appears to be a sucker-of-last-resort where Dim Sum bonds (offshore/HK Yuan-denominated bonds) have seen issuance almost triple in the first 11 months of the year. The WSJ is reporting that 76 entities issued CNY99.1bn YTD, according to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Interestingly, the biggest growth in the second half of the year has been from European firms who are unable to raise funds economically due to the crisis of confidence at home. Bloomberg notes BMW and Lloyds as two recent issuers with the latter managing to price CNY-denominated 3Y debt at 3.6% yield against comparable EUR-denominated debt at 5.3% - quite a saving if you're willing to take the currency risk (or looking for non-Euro, non-USD diversification) as a corporate Treasurer (or desperate for the money). But for the bulk of Chinese issuers it would seem evident that the Dim Sum investors are perhaps a little too eager to be lending their Yuan, and therefore not being appropriately compensated for credit risk concerns (even with the implicit FX revaluation bet).
This fear is even more prescient when, according to Bloomberg, one considers that 60% of Asia's fastest growing bond market lack any of the standard leverage covenant restrictions (protection) that Western bondholders are used to. And just to add some more fuel to the rising yield fire of these bonds, Bloomberg just reported that eager bondholders are more than willing (and blind to the risks) to accept one-off payments from issuers in order to accept significant covenant concessions (completely disregarding the credit risks through time). Our Dim Sum index has seen average yields jump a significant 70bps to 3.31% since mid-September leading us to raise concerns that this market, on which ETFs are now being created, is worryingly exposed to both a systemic Chinese credit crunch and idiosyncratic releveraging even if managers view Dim Sum as more of a currency play.
UPDATE: Gold and Silver just dropped more aggressively
Since the news broke that there is no 27-nation agreement, risk markets are showing strains. Perhaps a little surprising is the lack of total panic in the EURUSD (50pips or so) as ES (the e-mini S&P 500) has now dropped almost 1% from its after-hours peak. Broadly speaking risk is off across the major markets with US TSYs rallying, the TSY curve flattening, and commodities rolling over (oil under $98) but it is AUD and the carry pairs that are driving ES down as much as anything else.
And Scene: Europe Agrees To Disagree, Next Summit Date Set For March 2012 As David Cameron Kills CompromiseSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/08/2011 23:02 -0400
Not the headlines Gollum van Rompuy needed at 3:30 am CET, when he was scheduled to have a press conference:
- EU LEADERS AGREE THEY WILL REEXAMINE CEILING OF ESM BAILOUT FUND IN MARCH 2012 - EU DIPLOMAT via RTRS
- TREATY CHANGE LIKELY TO BE DONE AMONG EURO ZONE PLUS OTHER COUNTRIES, BUT NOT AT 27 - EU DIPLOMATS via RTRS
- EU LEADERS AGREED PERMANENT ESM BAILOUT FUND WILL NOT HAVE A BANKING LICENCE -- EU DIPLOMAT
- And the guilty party: An agreement at 27 fell through after British Prime Minister David Cameron demanded concessions that Germany and France were not willing to give, one of the officials said.
Translation: tomorrow's summit is as of now an epic failure. As for the Eurozone lasting through January 1 of 2012, let alone March... good luck.
Why The UK Trail Of The MF Global Collapse May Have "Apocalyptic" Consequences For The Eurozone, Canadian Banks, Jefferies And Everyone ElseSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/08/2011 00:06 -0400
Reposting by popular demand, and because everyone has to understand the embedded risks in this market, courtesy of the shadow banking system.
In an oddly prescient turn of events, yesterday we penned a post titled "Has The Imploding European Shadow Banking System Forced The Bundesbank To Prepare For Plan B?" in which we explained how it was not only the repo market, but the far broader and massively unregulated shadow banking system in Europe that was becoming thoroughly unhinged, and was manifesting itself in a complete "lock up in interbank liquidity" and which, we speculated, is pressuring the Bundesbank, which is well aware of what is going on behind the scenes, to slowly back away from what will soon be an "apocalyptic" event (not our words... read on). Why was this prescient? Because today, Reuters' Christopher Elias has written the logical follow up analysis to our post, in which he explains in layman's terms not only how but why the lock up has occurred and will get far more acute, but also why the MF Global bankruptcy, much more than merely a one-off instance of "repo-to-maturity" of sovereign bonds gone horribly wrong is a symptom of two things: i) the lax London-based unregulated and unsupervised system which has allowed such unprecedented, leveraged monsters as AIG, Lehman and now as it turns out MF Global, to flourish until they end up imploding and threatening the world's entire financial system, and ii) an implicit construct embedded within the shadow banking model which permitted the heaping of leverage upon leverage upon leverage, probably more so than any structured finance product in the past (up to and including synthetic CDO cubeds), and certainly on par with the AIG cataclysm which saw $2.7 trillion of CDS notional sold with virtually zero margin. Simply said: when one truly digs in, MF Global exposes the 2011 equivalent of the 2008 AIG: virtually unlimited leverage via the shadow banking system, in which there are practically no hard assets backing the infinite layers of debt created above, and which when finally unwound, will create a cataclysmic collapse of all financial institutions, where every bank is daisy-chained to each other courtesy of multiple layers of "hypothecation, and re-hypothecation." In fact, it is a link so sinister it touches every corner of modern finance up to and including such supposedly "stable" institutions as Jefferies, which as it turns out has spent weeks defending itself, however against all the wrong things, and Canadian banks, which as it also turns out, defended themselves against Zero Hedge allegations they may well be the next shoes to drop, as being strong and vibrant (and in fact just announced soaring profits and bonuses), yet which have all the same if not far greater risk factors as MF Global. Yet nobody has called them out on it. Until now.
While we have extensively covered the blood feud between Bank of America, and its archnemeis, the mysteriously titled Walnut Place in the past (see here and here and here and here and most importantly here) which just happens to be the entity that successfully scuttled Bank of America's "proposed" $8.5 billion settlement with a bevy of so called litigants (among which BlackRock, PIMCO and the New York Fed for god's sake - the very entities who survival depends on BAC's continued existence) who in realty were merely subversive agents seeking to settle $424 billion in misrepresented mortgage CFC trusts just so the status quo would not be impaired, we never asked one simple question: just who is Walnut Place? Now, courtesy of Reuters, we know, and the revelation is quite stunning, because it means that the person who potentially has the biggest short in Bank of America either via equity or CDS (which do not have to be publicly desclosed) is the legendary head of Baupost: Seth Klarman. Reuters reports: "Walnut Place, a group of undisclosed investors who oppose Bank of America Corp's $8.5 billion mortgage bond settlement, is the Baupost Group, a distressed debt fund, according to an attorney for the bank. "Walnut Place is actually a made up name," Theodore Mirvis, an attorney with Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz who represents Bank of America, said at a hearing in New York state Supreme Court Thursday. The "real" firm, which sued Bank of America and Bank of New York Mellon BKNYK.UL, as trustee, over mortgage-backed securities trusts is Baupost -- "known as a distressed debt or sometimes a vulture fund," Mirvis said." As a reminder, Baupost is one of the world's biggest hedge funds at $23 billion, and unlike other fly-by-night one hit wonders, is not down 47% YTD. In fact, the mere name of Seth Klarman being long or short a stock has typically had a huge impact on the stock price. And since by implication in his continued efforts to destabilize the proposed settlement, Klarman is either short BAC, or long the beneficiaries of ongoing, and successful, litigation such as MBIA, this means that the pain for BAC is about to magnified as the traditional 13F clones jump on board the pair trade, and short BAC while going long MBIA et al (incidentally this is half the thesis that we presented back in September 15, when we said to... go long MBIA and short Bank of America).
So I don’t have a good answer for the fundamental problem of tails. But there is an observed regularity in life reflected in the sayings “it is always darkest before dawn” and “where the danger grows, so grows the saving power” to quote Holderlin. And when no one can know the future, and the mechanism governing the future is unstable, anticipation of heightened risk premia warrants a barbell. In financial markets, extreme meltdowns are met by extreme policy reactions. Practically stated, it seems best to play center bets when others do not, and the tails when others do not. After markets price in heightened risk, actively manage the position by lowering exposure to the big gain leg. Move the proceeds to the center or double down on the other tail. Perhaps this is how one should manage tails. Given that the known categories of human experience do not provide adequate predictions, luck dominates control. Nobody has it all figured out. Even when you think you have it all figured out, everything blows up in your face again. We'll never figure it all out. Nobody can predict the future, and we don't have good enough imaginations to dream up every contingency.
Last Minute Summit Mutiny Threatens The Future Of The Euro; And Why A Wholesale S&P Downgrade Of Europe Will Be DevastatingSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/08/2011 19:43 -0400
A day when everything that could go wrong for the euro and eurozone has just gotten worse. Hours away from the completion of the summit, whose failure will unleash a nuclear bomb of serial downgrades by S&P (let along expose frauds such as Sarkozy and Olli Rehn who claim, yet again, that the world will end a solution is found), The Telegraph writes that the summit is already in tatters after a rebellion and threats by Finland, Holland and Ireland are poised to scuttle the summit. Louise Armistead reports that 'Finland’s grand committee said decisions made by the ESM – the eurozone’s permanent bail-out fund set for launch in 2012 – had to remain unanimous, and not changed to the “qualified majority” that French president Nicolas Sarkozy and German chancellor Angela Merkel have agreed. The Finns are backed by the Netherlands, which fears proposals to withdraw veto powers from the ESM is an erosion of democracy and would make it vulnerable to funding bail-outs without recourse. Meanwhile, the Irish want to block plans for the “convergence and harmonisation” of the eurozone’s “corporate tax base”. The rebellion is a serious threat to German and French plans to sign treaty changes today along the lines laid out in their joint letter on Wednesday. In it, the leaders said they hoped all 27 European Union countries would sign.' And since this is the only option to bypass a popular vote, the mere thought of which would destroy the Eurozone in a flash, and since Finland and Holland are two of the core funders of the ESM (RIP EFSF), it means that the Greek scheme of playing chicken with the Eurozone, has now been adopted by everyone else in the core. In the meantime, time for the Euro is running out with less than 24 hours left until midnight on Friday, and absent a complete consensus, the summit is as good as dead, something we expected a week ago and were heckled for by Bloomberg TV. Good luck Europe - use those 24 hours wisely.
It seems the market's psychology has shifted, in its wonderfully temperamental and instantaneous manner, once again as the last great hope of Thomas Lee and his cohorts is removed. What better time than for David Rosenberg, of Gluskin Sheff, in his inimitable way, to introduce his outlook for 2012 in the form of eight behavioral changes that he expects to overwhelm market psychology in the coming months. Political, financial, and economic transitions for the US, Europe, and China respectively will dominate the coming year and as Rosie points out, the ability to recognize change at the margin (such as basis traders in European sovereigns) is going to be critical in 2012. The shift from one of cyclical extrapolation to secular change is always a hard one to navigate and tactical asset allocation will become foremost in most people's minds over longer-term strategic considerations. The global economy will be forced to endure the mother of all deleveraging cycles as we move through 2012 and capital preservation and income must dominate investment strategy as Rosie's 8 themes play out.
Presenting complete hedge fund performance for the month of November and Year to Date. By the looks of things, this will be a year which will not only remain in infamy for hedge fund performance (now that we are just 15 trading days away from the end), but one where about a third of hedge fund will almost certainly be redeemed into extinction.
Just in case anyone thought Texas Instruments was joking the first, second, or even third time previously, here is the company to cement that the feces have really hit the fan, as it has been warning for almost a year contrary to what bleary eyed optimists wanted to believe.
In a scheduled update to its business outlook for the fourth quarter of 2011, Texas Instruments Incorporated (TI) (NYSE: TXN - News) today narrowed and lowered its expected ranges for revenue and earnings per share (EPS). The reductions are due to broadly lower demand across a wide range of markets, customers and products, except for Wireless applications processors.
The company currently expects its financial results to be within the following ranges:
- Revenue: $3.19 – 3.33 billion compared with the prior range of $3.26 – 3.54 billion
- EPS: $0.21 – 0.25 compared with the prior range of $0.28 – 0.36.
Can one finally say: global recession?