Another Double Digit Negative Philly Fed Print Means Fourth Miss In A Row
Every single economic data point keeps coming worse than expected, and the S&P is just shy of 2012 and probably all time (for those who still care about such things) highs. The Philly Fed just posted its July index print which was as usual abysmal, posting its third negative month in a row, coming in at -12.9, and missing expectations of -8.0 for the fourth month in a row. And while the bulk of index subcomponents were more or less in line, the biggest and most notable change by far was the Number of Employees which tumbled from 1.8 to -8.4. Sadly, which the economic contraction accelerates and print after print is horrible, once again they are not nearly bad enough to usher in New QE any second, even as the market has priced in not only QE 4, but 5, 6, and so on.
And from the release:
Firms responding to the July Business Outlook
Survey continued to report weak business conditions. Although the survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments improved from June, they remained negative this month, suggesting overall declines in business. Firms also reported declines in employment this month and shorter work hours. The manufacturers reported near?steady input and output prices this month. The survey’s indicators of activity over the next six months remained positive but moderated somewhat from June.
Indicators Suggest Continued Decreases
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from a reading of ?16.6 in June to ?12.9. This marks the third consecutive negative reading for the index (see Chart 1). Nearly 32 percent of the firms reported declines in activity this month, exceeding the 19 percent that reported increases.
Indexes for new orders and shipments remained negative but increased 12 and 8 points, respectively.
Labor market conditions at the reporting firms deteriorated this month. The current employment index decreased 10 points, to ?8.4, its second negative reading in three months. The percent of firms reporting decreases in employment (18 percent) exceeded the percent reporting increases (10 percent).
Firms also indicated fewer hours worked this month: The average workweek index increased 2 points but posted its fourth consecutive negative reading.