Another Double Digit Negative Philly Fed Print Means Fourth Miss In A Row

Tyler Durden's picture

Every single economic data point keeps coming worse than expected, and the S&P is just shy of 2012 and probably all time (for those who still care about such things) highs. The Philly Fed just posted its July index print which was as usual abysmal, posting its third negative month in a row, coming in at -12.9, and missing expectations of -8.0 for the fourth month in a row. And while the bulk of index subcomponents were more or less in line, the biggest and most notable change by far was the Number of Employees which tumbled from 1.8 to -8.4. Sadly, which the economic contraction accelerates and print after print is horrible, once again they are not nearly bad enough to usher in New QE any second, even as the market has priced in not only QE 4, but 5, 6, and so on.


Full table

And from the release:

Firms responding to the July Business Outlook


Survey continued to report weak business conditions. Although the survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments improved from June, they remained negative this month, suggesting overall declines in business. Firms also reported declines in employment this month and shorter work hours. The manufacturers reported near?steady input and output prices this month. The survey’s indicators of  activity over the next six months remained positive but moderated somewhat from June.


Indicators Suggest Continued Decreases


The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from a reading of ?16.6 in June to ?12.9. This marks the third consecutive negative reading for the index (see Chart 1). Nearly 32 percent of the firms reported declines in activity this month, exceeding the 19 percent that reported increases.


Indexes for new orders and shipments remained negative but increased 12 and 8 points, respectively.


Labor market conditions at the reporting firms deteriorated this month. The current employment index decreased 10 points, to ?8.4, its  second negative reading in three months. The percent of firms reporting decreases in employment (18 percent) exceeded the percent reporting increases (10 percent).


Firms also indicated fewer hours worked this month: The average workweek index increased 2 points but posted its fourth consecutive  negative reading.

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vast-dom's picture

my hopium stem is smoke-filled and i'm getting fucked up what the fuck do i care about neg prints i got all the drugs in the world!

battle axe's picture


FieldingMellish's picture

The longer Ben waits, the more he'll have to print. He should have followed the old axiom "If you are going to print, print early."

dmger14's picture

If he printed early, he'd be due for another print about now anyway.  So the appropriate axiom is "print early, print often."

TahoeBilly2012's picture

Stimulus spending is drying up...

user2011's picture

who cares about philly index,  or bad housing number or bad unemployment number ?   We have stock market index recovery.    The US economy is better than ever, because we have surpass the fundamental and technical analysis.    People's wealthy are based on computer generated number.    just say how wealthy you want to be, and the HFT will push it all the way there.

HD's picture

Thelma and Louise market.

Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

(to the soud of cowbell).......Rally...Rally..Rally..............Yah.....!!!

Jake88's picture

funny as hell rotflmao. The price of chicken has sky rocketed.

icetears's picture

who cares about philly index, or bad apartment amount or bad unemployment amount ? We accept banal bazaar basis recovery. The US abridgement is bigger than ever, because we accept beat the axiological and abstruse analysis. People's affluent are based on computer generated number. just say how affluent you wish to be, and the HFT will advance it all the way there.

jogos online

Dr. Engali's picture

Yet this ridiculous "market" refuses to sell off. I'll bet you Ben is crapping his pants right about now. The market won't give him what he needs to print.

Village Smithy's picture

I think that he's crapping his pants because the monster that he's made out of equity markets is about to start a bond sell off.

Hype Alert's picture

Who needs to worry about moral hazard?   It appears everybody now believes in the free lunch.

Rainman's picture

More good news for the wily Bernank.....street is gangbanging him with expectations to pull the trigger. The choice is being made for's smart to play a hard-to-get bald headed nerd.

RobotTrader's picture

Looks like its back to  buying the dips with the utmost urgency

oddjob's picture

There was giant dip in Netflix, did you average down?

Cult_of_Reason's picture


It means Bernanke will print, and we will be all millionaires and billionaires, and Obama will start giving away iPhones with food stamps to everyone!



Change You Can Believe In

graneros's picture

I hope the lines are not to long. 

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

we fired 35% of our work force but look everybody left has a job, (until 10% more need to go)

Hohum's picture

There may be a violent revolution; it won't bring back capitalism.

Jake88's picture

Am I the only person on the planet that sensed a reluctance to print in the Bernank's meeting with congress. doesn't matter. nothing makes sense to me anymore.

JackT's picture

How are these forecasters missing by 40% or more?!

Hype Alert's picture

With Bernanke parading around with a medicine bag full of heroin, bad data numbers taste great!

Meesohaawnee's picture

"user" made me think of the markets being like that star trek episode where they wage war with computers. Actual bombs missles meant nothing. It was just whatever the algos generated the casualty number would be. I guess the moral was it made traditonal "war" a thing of the past. You just plugged some cals in and you had a outcome. Thats the market today. No data whatsoever means a thing anymore. Just shut it down. Data has been rendered into nothing. You could have printed a -50 on the Philly. youll still have Bens algos ramp. This makes flash crash into childs play. At least they could peg it to a mistake, or quick algo blip. This is deliberate and has gone on forever.. Oh  i how wish William Banzai can take this Men at Work/Its a mistake vid and put ben and his algos in it.