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Another Double Digit Negative Philly Fed Print Means Fourth Miss In A Row

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Every single economic data point keeps coming worse than expected, and the S&P is just shy of 2012 and probably all time (for those who still care about such things) highs. The Philly Fed just posted its July index print which was as usual abysmal, posting its third negative month in a row, coming in at -12.9, and missing expectations of -8.0 for the fourth month in a row. And while the bulk of index subcomponents were more or less in line, the biggest and most notable change by far was the Number of Employees which tumbled from 1.8 to -8.4. Sadly, which the economic contraction accelerates and print after print is horrible, once again they are not nearly bad enough to usher in New QE any second, even as the market has priced in not only QE 4, but 5, 6, and so on.

Visually:

Full table

And from the release:

Firms responding to the July Business Outlook

 

Survey continued to report weak business conditions. Although the survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments improved from June, they remained negative this month, suggesting overall declines in business. Firms also reported declines in employment this month and shorter work hours. The manufacturers reported near?steady input and output prices this month. The survey’s indicators of  activity over the next six months remained positive but moderated somewhat from June.

 

Indicators Suggest Continued Decreases

 

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from a reading of ?16.6 in June to ?12.9. This marks the third consecutive negative reading for the index (see Chart 1). Nearly 32 percent of the firms reported declines in activity this month, exceeding the 19 percent that reported increases.

 

Indexes for new orders and shipments remained negative but increased 12 and 8 points, respectively.

 

Labor market conditions at the reporting firms deteriorated this month. The current employment index decreased 10 points, to ?8.4, its  second negative reading in three months. The percent of firms reporting decreases in employment (18 percent) exceeded the percent reporting increases (10 percent).

 

Firms also indicated fewer hours worked this month: The average workweek index increased 2 points but posted its fourth consecutive  negative reading.

 

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Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:14 | 2631675 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

my hopium stem is smoke-filled and i'm getting fucked up what the fuck do i care about neg prints i got all the drugs in the world!

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:14 | 2631676 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Hope annd Change, BWHAAA HAAAA HAAAAAA

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:16 | 2631686 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Dope keep your Change

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:16 | 2631688 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

The longer Ben waits, the more he'll have to print. He should have followed the old axiom "If you are going to print, print early."

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 11:48 | 2632225 dmger14
dmger14's picture

If he printed early, he'd be due for another print about now anyway.  So the appropriate axiom is "print early, print often."

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:17 | 2631692 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

Stimulus spending is drying up...

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:17 | 2631699 user2011
user2011's picture

who cares about philly index,  or bad housing number or bad unemployment number ?   We have stock market index recovery.    The US economy is better than ever, because we have surpass the fundamental and technical analysis.    People's wealthy are based on computer generated number.    just say how wealthy you want to be, and the HFT will push it all the way there.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:17 | 2631700 HD
HD's picture

Thelma and Louise market.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:18 | 2631706 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

(to the soud of cowbell).......Rally...Rally..Rally..............Yah.....!!!

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:19 | 2631710 Jason T
Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:52 | 2631928 Jake88
Jake88's picture

funny as hell rotflmao. The price of chicken has sky rocketed.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 01:57 | 2641673 icetears
icetears's picture

who cares about philly index, or bad apartment amount or bad unemployment amount ? We accept banal bazaar basis recovery. The US abridgement is bigger than ever, because we accept beat the axiological and abstruse analysis. People's affluent are based on computer generated number. just say how affluent you wish to be, and the HFT will advance it all the way there.

jogos online

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:30 | 2631711 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yet this ridiculous "market" refuses to sell off. I'll bet you Ben is crapping his pants right about now. The market won't give him what he needs to print.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:34 | 2631802 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

I think that he's crapping his pants because the monster that he's made out of equity markets is about to start a bond sell off.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 11:10 | 2632041 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Who needs to worry about moral hazard?   It appears everybody now believes in the free lunch.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:20 | 2631714 Rainman
Rainman's picture

More good news for the wily Bernank.....street is gangbanging him with expectations to pull the trigger. The choice is being made for him.....it's smart to play a hard-to-get bald headed nerd.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:25 | 2631753 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Looks like its back to  buying the dips with the utmost urgency

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:32 | 2631788 oddjob
oddjob's picture

There was giant dip in Netflix, did you average down?

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:35 | 2631767 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Bullish!


It means Bernanke will print, and we will be all millionaires and billionaires, and Obama will start giving away iPhones with food stamps to everyone!

Booyah!

 

Change You Can Believe In

http://media.boreme.com/post_media/2008/rich-zimbabwe-boy.jpg

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:41 | 2631846 graneros
graneros's picture

I hope the lines are not to long. 

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:39 | 2631835 Snakeeyes
Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:39 | 2631837 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

we fired 35% of our work force but look everybody left has a job, (until 10% more need to go)

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 15:02 | 2633162 Hohum
Hohum's picture

There may be a violent revolution; it won't bring back capitalism.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:44 | 2631870 Jake88
Jake88's picture

Am I the only person on the planet that sensed a reluctance to print in the Bernank's meeting with congress. doesn't matter. nothing makes sense to me anymore.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:44 | 2631875 JackT
JackT's picture

How are these forecasters missing by 40% or more?!

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 10:46 | 2631886 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

With Bernanke parading around with a medicine bag full of heroin, bad data numbers taste great!

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 11:54 | 2632260 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

"user" made me think of the markets being like that star trek episode where they wage war with computers. Actual bombs missles meant nothing. It was just whatever the algos generated the casualty number would be. I guess the moral was it made traditonal "war" a thing of the past. You just plugged some cals in and you had a outcome. Thats the market today. No data whatsoever means a thing anymore. Just shut it down. Data has been rendered into nothing. You could have printed a -50 on the Philly. youll still have Bens algos ramp. This makes flash crash into childs play. At least they could peg it to a mistake, or quick algo blip. This is deliberate and has gone on forever.. Oh  i how wish William Banzai can take this Men at Work/Its a mistake vid and put ben and his algos in it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gArUEEE1OF8

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