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Another Housing Data Miss Makes It 13 of 15
Pending Home Sales missed expectations by the largest amount since September of last year and printed negative (-0.5%) versus hope of +1.0%. It seems our self-fulfilling housing recovery is not so self-fulfilling or recovering...this makes 13 of the last 15 macro data prints in the US a miss. What is perhaps most surprising is the fact that this is from our old friends - the NAR - who seem comfortable 'fabricating' whatever number they need and in a wonderful ignorance of the reality of the situation (or uncomon confidence in extrapolating exceptional trends), Larry Yun (NAR Chief Economist) notes "The spring home buying season looks bright because of an elevated level of contract offers so far this year" which seems odd given the fall MoM and the clear warm-weather demand-pull that has occurred (but we assume he is spinning the better-than-expected YoY data that marked a pick up from the last abyss we saw in home sales). We also note that while YoY comps are the positive spin, the Jan print was almost the highest 'rise' seasonally for January of the last 10 years and this print (for Feb) is well below seasonal average (and near the worst of the last 5 years).
Actual data revisions down and the largest miss from expectations since September...
And the almost record-breaking levels of January seem to be fading fast as the warm-weather demand pull-forward slips away...
From Larry's lips to investor's ears...
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That video is very legit. Especially in an Infantocracy.
Markets surge! Wheeeeeee
Maybe the markets are up because they are looking at the year-on-year figure which came in at +13.9% vs the expected +9.7% rather than the narrower monthly data?
Just a thought....
QE-logic says good is good, bad is better!
.... and the worst is the best ?
The truth is best...mebbe you like the pablum and outright lies they shovel at us, but I sure don't. If something prints +13.7 from depressionary levels YoY, what is that even saying, and then please factor in dropping prices in the midst of massive manipulation/easing to keep ZIRP in tact...
For the junkers and for those unable of independent thinking (a tiny minority within ZH), I did put "Just a thought" (meaning that I, in common with most in ZH, do not know for sure why the markets were up on the housing data release).
I don't pretend to know the answer and most of my postings are generaly in agreement with ZH's views, but I am always amazed at how some people in here will just not entertain any dissenting voice, no matter how carefully worded it is. And that, considering what ZH REALLY stands for, is, for a lack of a better word, quite puzzling ... on occasion.
OK, I get your point. Sorry for my harshly worded response. I think the problem with your comment/logic is suggesting that there are real market inputs at this time. They're heavily manipulated, and I just don't think it's possible to speak of markets without at least discussing the huge manipulations that are mis-allocating capital from truer markets (like ZIRP for 4 years running...)
French Frog,
Have you looked at prices paid? I believe they are down, which may explain higher volume YoY.
Gold is up more than equities...
or said in another way: "13 out of 15 'makes' for more QE"
Bernanke FOR THE WIN.........IT'S GOOOOOOOD!!!!!!!
I prefer the eaaaaasing I prefer the eaaaaasing.
WWGD
Is Stolper making these predictions?
Well. The Dow farce is up 137 points, which means that the Primary Dealers are pulling an MF Global and buying margin in order to hold BAC and their own shares prices up.
Margin calls very, very soon. MF Globalization is around the corner.
Nothing that convoluted. It's simple perception - there is room to rise REGARDLESS of headwinds like, you know, actual data. The whining heard during W's tenure abou the disconnect between market values and the general economy seem rather quaint in light of the current activity. Folks who've never had a kind word about capitalism are suddenly crowing at new market highs. As I said, perception.
Thx for the comment but I deeply disagree.
There is absolutely nothing convoluted in what I said. It's is extremely simple as soon as one accepts to ......believe it.
"Folks who've never had a kind word about capitalism are suddenly crowing at new market highs. As I said, perception."
Perception, and deception. To your point, anything to get Obumbler re-elected...
Definitly a good time to print more money and buy a home.
Not that it matters but margin calls are a comin'
Ponzi markets only go higher just like Zimbabwe...
Au & Ag setting up for another run, BTFD
Not just yet CM! Not just YET!
what do you call 1 Million realtors and lawyers unemployed and banktrupt with houses at 50% underwater, in Florida,
Nevada, Califormia and Arizonia?
Cockroaches
Here's one mid-tier city in Orange County, CA with 8 foreclosures listed on MLS and 313 in the shadow inventory. Costa Mesa
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/costa-mesa-housing-mls-foreclosures-and-shadow-inventory-2012-retracing-the-housing-bubble-orange-county/
A good start................
Why are the lawyers unemployed? Who's going to go after the debtors on collection actions and who's gonna represent the debtors in bankruptcy?
Every sentiment indicator creeps upward (earlier today IFO too) and every hard macro indicator craters even more. Throw in the odd hint regarding QE 3.0 and balancesheet upfucking (ECB Noyer this morning), stir gently, add some end of Q fumes and what we have is the umpteenth spike from nothing to nowhere.
Time for shorts?
Friday is Window Dressing....may be a little too soon, eh?! Well, you could start with a little position then double down!
NO SHORTING ALLOWED!!!
Thou shall not short any trade..ever!
Brought to you by GS, doing God's work...
In Nevada we call is a depression. Plain and simple. And we have Harry Reid. Man, are we lucky.
Harry is going to deliver you this amazing train though....with permanent jobs only costing $6.4M each ($5B/777 permanent jobs)
The decline must be due to the weather we've been having lately.
How so? It's been TOO good - people have been focused on enjoying the beautiful weather and so are uninterested in shopping for houses, etc.
We need some BAD WEATHER to help put the focus back on buying a new home!!!
i agree that NAR #s are manipulated. anyone who pays attention can figure that out.
78%: Percent of 25-34 year olds who have lived with their parents and are satisfied with the arrangement.
One boon to a housing recovery would be young adults moving out of their parents’ homes and starting their own households. But what if they don’t want to?
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/03/24/number-of-the-week-what-if-you...
My eldest son and my daughter-in-law moved into my secondary residence which I opened up to them, they only pay the property tax. My youngest son moved back home and is enjoying life more than ever... we have bonded like never before and he gets to save thousands each month, and has no intention of moving out... as the probability that a total global economic collapse occurs within 2 years is now almost certain... guns gold and grains
Although I believe I have a very good relationship with my parents, I didn't last more than a few weeks in this arrangement... I bought a house in the spring/summer of 08' after bargain shopping (had rented it for a while) and got it for the owner's cost or close thereabouts... he was just needing some liquidity at the time. I'm hoping to sell this house in the next few months for about a 20% appreciation... (I don't think it's unreasonable given comps over the last 6 months). I'm looking to rent, but I will not be going back home... as an adult, it's simply not an option I'm willing to accept (nor is the wife).
It's one thing to be humble and come crawling back to mommy and daddy... and there are plenty of positive things that can come from it (e.g. bonding... you now have a yard mower!)... but I have some sincere reservations about whether all these kids are "happy" or even "content" with it. It's always interesting how the mind portrays situations where there is no alternative.
Hopefully, the baby boomers have some decent knowledge to pass on (e.g. rudimentary home maintenance, auto and small engine repair and maintenance, gardening, yard work, etc.)... I would have hoped they would have already done this, but now it seems they get a second chance at redemption. I suspect it too will be squandered.
News flash:
Mike Daisey named new CEO of NAR...
But they are rising in general.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/03/26/pending-home-sales-fall-0-5-miss-expectations-of-1-for-february/
Don't build your house on American quicksand!!
Says so in the Bible... but nobody wanted to listen he....
Brusca'd bitchez!
Bad data is positive for stocks regardless of their lofty prices because it means more confetti. When do we stop fooling ourselves?
I miss David Lereah.
For years, I lived in tipis, old trucks, school busses, plywood shacks, and huts built out of wattle and daub and straw. I paid no rent, no mortgage, no property tax, no utilities. Life was good.
My question, re the youngsters not wanting to leave home, due to student loans, etc... what happens when more and more people do the cost/benefit analysis, and decide "home ownership", ie, debt slavery in which one gets the use of a strucutre built out of formaldehyde, styrofoam, and sawdust, well, JUST ISN'T WORTH IT?
Oh, and what if Mom and Dad are smart, and say, "Look, you help us out with the debt slavery, and you get to live here, and besides, there is safety in numbers, we need you around to help us shoot the zombies when they attack."
RIP Housing Market. Slab City, here we come!