Another Late Day Dumpfest Ends Worst Thanksgiving Week Ever For Stocks

Tyler Durden's picture

Stocks plunged at the close for the third day in a row to cap the worst Thanksgiving week ever. US equities seemed in a world of their own for much of the day - especially financials - as all the hope and rumors faded and clearly a large number wanted to be flat or short into the weekend. Across a broad basket of risk assets (CONTEXT), today's equity rally and selloff was pure emotional overshoot and correction as we closed back at reality. HYG once again led the derisking way and credit underperformed equity until the late-day equity sell-off converged them once again. What has been most notable this week - particularly the last day or so, has been the sell-off in Treasuries. The concerns that European entities are repatriating anything and everything should be very worrisome and the volume into the ES close suggests that fear is growing.

CONTEXT was less ebullient though was bid today as broad risk assets moved up on hope and then rolled over on reality once again. The factors were much less correlated than normal - especially treasuries - but the incredible correction back to sanity into the close was quite surprising nevertheless in its relative exactness. We think the lower correlation is also a factor of technical flows and worry that we are heading towards some break that could lead to significant outflows from seemingly low risk trades - something to watch.

Treasury performance today was entirely odd given the sell-off of the afternoon and the relative strength until the last day downgrade of Belgium in EURUSD also suggests that there was heavy repatriation of foreign assets.

Equity and Credit were generally in sync today but HYG led the way once again. The 4th day in a row where HYG was the clear beta leader (red ovals) which fits with the thesis of ETF-stuffing that we have been effusively discussing for a few weeks. Given high-yield credit's further deterioration, we have adjusted our S&P 500 cash index fair-value to 1135 and while we are as close to fair between equity and credit (as equity has snapped back to reality) as we have been in over a month, we suspect if sustained pressure from HYG pushes into secondary HY bonds, credit and equity will repeat the pattern on 2008 and tumble together as if riding an illiquid slip'n'slide.

Its admittedly thin trading after-hours but the major US financials have given up all of their gains with MS, WFC, AMEX, and GE all practically unch and GS and BofA dropping off.

FX markets were a one way street this week as EUR-based flows drove USD strength in almost a straight line - admittedly with some vol - with DXY up over 2.1% on the week and AUD down over 3% against the USD. Finally, into the close, commodities generally sold off quite hard - fully retracing the SNB/Greece 'good-news-silliness' chatter - with Oil and Silver the craziest. What was very notable was the last minute rally in Oil into the close - war premia? Gold modestly underperformed the USD on the week while liquidation appeared more the moves for Silver and Copper.

The week in Europe was clearly the main driver (and rightly so) and is evident in the disconnects this week in European credit and equity. Financials closed just of their wides of the week while the rally into the EU close (well before today's ugliness in US) was led by Main (not XOver) suggesting it was much less risk-on than it might appear. Equities outperformed today - once again seemingly in a world of their own - and given the weak close in the US, we would expect this gap to fill on Sunday's open (as we have seen again and again).

Pete Tchir, of TF Market Advisors, sums the day's headlines in Europe up nicely:

The only logical conclusion is that we are further away from a solution or agreement in Europe than we have been in a long time.  The "Grand Plan" has failed and this time, it is not a matter of creating "bigger and better" versions of prior plans, they need to do something new.  Germany in particular will not relent on "printing" until a real, credible, and implementable plan is on the table.  I think they are weeks away from that.  In the meantime expect support for European sovereign debt to erode.  Italian and Spanish debt are dangerous, but as shorts take some profit there at these yields, they will step up positions in Belgium, France, and probably Germany.


The best thing Europe could do is impose some old school "children" rules on the politicians, finance ministers, and various government employees.  They should be told 1) Children are meant to be seen, not heard, and 2) If you have nothing good to say, then don't say anything.  There is enough bad news out there without people like Mersch taking the time to speak.  Would it be that hard to say Draghi is only one allowed to comment on ECB at this stage?  I'm bearish and thankful to Mersch, but really, what was the point of that?


Have a great weekend and enjoy the holiday, and get some rest, because this is likely to be a December to remember.

Charts: Bloomberg

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mophead's picture

"if you are female and fancy scarves and clitoral removal"

And many people in the US are no different. Circumcision does the same thing, only to males. It reduces sexual pleasure. Something that is supposed to appease (the) God(s). Talk about hypocrisy. If you live in a glass house ...

ceilidh_trail's picture

Sooooooooooooooo, over 50= small minded and prejudiced? Yeah, people who use labels to argue a point are sooooooooo stupid. Right?

whstlblwr's picture

My writing is not that great. This is what I mean, it seems that many I meet from old generation speak prejudice against Jew, Muslim, black in everyday language. Of course not all older generation, but many.

baby_BLYTHE's picture

I am 21. Since the U.S. is a secular nation by Constitutional inception, I care not what the religion or personal set of beliefs our Prez might subscribe. It is that fact he is a damned liar about such truths (including not limited to religious beliefs, school records, grades, birth certificate, parents alligence and so forth). We have had fakers in the Oval Office for the majority of the previous century. And today we are the better for it today how exactly?

whstlblwr's picture

I agree, but calling him muslim, gives muslim bad name. LOL.

zebrasquid's picture

All muslims, extremists or not, by the doctrines they embrace, are anti-semites(not to mention anti-Christian).  And have been long before there was an Israel to blame for that.

Not sure Muslim give a pass to the nice Jews or the nice Christians, either.

How does that cause you to then say that most seem "nice", you, who judge on the basis of tolerance for all?




Think for yourself's picture

Yeah, right. Except for the little grain of sand in the gear of your theory, that is that muslims come from the original semites while most jews nowadays are khazars. What's your point again?

whstlblwr's picture

There are gangs of extremists, and that is danger. Would you want the evangelicals to rule your city?

vast-dom's picture

lucky for the markets reality hasn't been priced in, past historal performance, or lack thereof, notwithstanding.


only a matter of time.....

Boilermaker's picture

And Banks and REITs manage to keep in the green.  Of course.

SwingForce's picture

They forgot about the early close.....

HedgeAccordingly's picture

Happy black Friday---.. and RED friday - must be windy on the set - 

LoneStarHog's picture

Does anyone still believe in Santa Claus and a rally for 2011?  Pahleeze don't tell me there is no Santa. What will I do with all this milk and cookies for him and his Elves?

Carlyle Groupie's picture

"What will I do with all this milk and cookies for him and his Elves?"

Steven Cohen is in the market for a 5th chin. Flip your milk&cookies for some insider info and make a fortune.

Seer's picture

Looks like you forgot to get the memo.  No more Santa, only unicorns and Skittles.  Unicorns don't do milk and cookies.  Nice knowing you...

Great Depression Trader's picture

Fucking ES took a plunge to 1149 from 1171 intraday high. 22 handle plunge intraday what a fun market

Manthong's picture

I held through the BS at 12:40 pm.. pulled the trigger on 4 positions at 12:58 pm...

Machines took it down 8 points from 12:59 to AH 1:05.

I made a few bucks, but it's an ugly way to do it.

I plan to be out of this stupidity at about S&P 750 and just tend to the stash. 


Great Depression Trader's picture

Nice move. For longer ( weeks) swing trades i use SDS or SSO, fucking ES is too much for me LOL

oogs66's picture

Don't forget the rally from the lows overnight to get us to the highs

xcehn's picture

Gloom and doom for Fraud Street.

Bam_Man's picture

"It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas....2008."

SilverDOG's picture

BWAhh haah haaaa haaa!

That is the New Christmas Song for all!

Still laughing.

FranSix's picture

Opposite the TLT is the TBT.

Treasuries were bound to sell off, the long bond was at its high weeks ago.

Bam_Man's picture

Global bond sell-off is just getting started.

This will get very interesting very quickly...

Zaydac's picture

Bam_Man from Mish's blog, 3 years ago?

If bonds are your thing take a look at this: 

"On December 15, 2010, in the GEAB N°50, LEAP/E2020 anticipated the explosion of Western government debt (1) in the second half of 2011. We were then describing a process that would start with the European government debt crisis and then set fire to the heart of the global financial system, namely US federal debt"


cosmictrainwreck's picture

actually TBT is 2x (don't know 1x); been waiting for the fookin' BOTTOM, but asleep at the wheel today. Shit. TBT parallels Dow last 10 days (down)... DIVERGENCE mid-day Wed. My question is: just a blip, or do I jump in? 

The Monkey's picture

TBT was great coming out of the recession scare last year. This time it's the real thing. If your apocolyptic in general, short financials and small caps.

cosmictrainwreck's picture

got those....looking to "diversify" (ha)

The Monkey's picture

Then look for a mini selloff and go long until things close in on capitulation in 2012 - then you can short to your heart's desire.

FranSix's picture

In terms of the weekly chart, TLT would have topped out and will see a lengthy correction lasting 23 - 25 weeks's time.  The high was in September. The last 2 corrections took that long, and saw the 89-week EMA.  The TBT should be at its ralling point.  Options activity in both should be bearing that out.

No justification for saying TBT is illiquid, it trades ~4m. units a day.

The Monkey's picture

Let's check back and compare notes a few weeks from now.  It's generally not a good time to short treasuries when the economy is about to fall off a cliff.

ffart's picture

"About to fall off a cliff" were you asleep the last 3 years or something? The shit sandwich never got taken off our plates they've just been adding more slices to it the whole time.

The Monkey's picture

In the words of ECRI, "if you think this is a bad economy, you haven't seen anything yet".

FranSix's picture

True, you can never tell before hand.  Especially since there's no guarantee TBT will trade according to its 2X title.

The Monkey's picture

At best, TBT might be a decent swing trade (like today). We probably get a few more weeks of decent data. Problem is, if you're holding short when the lights go out in Europe, you're gonna take a mighty beating.

FranSix's picture

I'm thinking that since the inverse correlation apparently does not apply between European equities and treasuries, that the same must be true for the U.S.

The Monkey's picture

Right now - there is really only one hiding place, and that is the US dollar. Why would I buy a bund knowing the currency may bite the dust in a few more nanoseconds?

FranSix's picture

You would avoid U.S. Dollar - denominated assets because the discount rate can go negative, or due to negative nominal interest rates.

CPL's picture

TZA is the direxions X3 small cap bear if you are looking for it.


TBT, why would you bother?  Unless trading in small 1000 block or less trades, the volume isn't useful to trade in. Shorting treasuries though is like shooting ducks in a barrel.

Keep the stops in kids, x2 and x3 can spin on a dime.  Use trailing stop loss if chasing for the day.  Make sure all positions are closed by friday.

The Monkey's picture

Not so sure about that. I think it has at least 50 more bps before this cycle is finished.

AgShaman's picture

Haha....Go long Pepper Spray.

OWS protesters are still takin' time off to shop for trinkets and video games. Maybe the retail numbers will get brought to you like all the other economic statistics Benny the B and his minions bring you.

Put on the 'Meat Ponchos'....

RobotTrader's picture

Commodities getting destroyed, everybody and their brother is dumping stocks and hard assets and piling into U.S. Paper.

DBA closed at the low of the day, GLD and SLV sitting on a cliff edge.

Bam_Man's picture

The US long bond is down more than a point-and-a-half today, you imbecile.

Are you here strictly to provide comic relief?

The Monkey's picture

Down today, but well up for the week. 7 year auction was A+.

The Monkey's picture

Rodgers: "Commodities sell off is fake"

Are we living in a "new era" again of fake liquidatons?

Silvers chart looks awful, and the gold miners are down in one of the biggest non-confirmations ever.

Deflationists are about to chalk up a big unexpected win.