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'Anti-Goldilocks' China Data Not Enough To Move Needle

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A fractional miss of estimates for GDP growth (printing at +7.6% vs expectations of +7.7%) coupled with a just-as-fractional beat in Retail Sales (+13.7% YoY vs expectations of +13.4%) seems to be the perfect remedy for a global-depression-expecting and/or massive-stimulus-hungry market. GDP growth was its slowest since March 2009 but it appears the 'sell the rumor, buy the news crowd' are disappointed. S&P 500 futures popped a few pts and then faded back - remaining around +3pts for now (and EUR rallied into the number, sold off on the print and is now limping back higher). As we noted earlier, this is not the data you have been looking for - instead focus on hot money flows and the property pop, as the Chinese continue to impress with their 'data' showing the first engineered 'soft-landing' in history.


 

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Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:00 | 2611809 todayone
todayone's picture

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Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:14 | 2611840 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Of course, the Chinese Communist upper struggle for power will be in this last scene was very impressive and ugly bestiality on its head. Finally, you will find that they are not only some of the hypocrites, bandits, wolves, is an absolute coward.

Oh, yes....fuck off spammer.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:39 | 2611874 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

The irony is, that spam was generated out of China using translation software. They must really want to see those Retail Sales numbers go up next quarter. Spamming for dollars.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:23 | 2611990 rocker
rocker's picture

In a rigged phony market, we should get a major rally tomorrow. I am all cash as I have quit long ago.

But as it is, in a manipulated casino the news is bad so we should rally.  JPMorgan's and Goldman's Dark Pools profit everyday.  Do YOU ???

If JPMorgan reports bad or negative trends quarter over quarter with or without the whale it should rally too.

The Bankster's Scam continues on. Price is NOT truth. The HFTs, Goldman, JPMorgan Barclays along with other fraudulent banks rig it all.

The Banksters control interest rates, comodity prices and equity prices. It is all rigged and manipulated to be whatever price they want it to be.

Ever notice how short interest gets high and then the markets ramp up while nobody is actually buying anything. Where the hell is the SEC.

They front run all honest trades and then manipulate price to make it a bad trade. It's the worst I've seen in thirty years of trading.

 

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:30 | 2612000 dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

China's GDP has been LIBOR-ed as well.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:16 | 2611845 Burr's 2nd Shot
Burr's 2nd Shot's picture

Skynet may be homicidal, but context seems to be an issue.

Turing Test fail.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 02:43 | 2612045 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

CNBC is saying it met expectations.  So it was lower by 1 tenth but they said it was the same, in a sense they are right but they are wrong also.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:01 | 2611813 ekm
ekm's picture

Wow. Are you implying that there are people who are actually trading securities in the market? I don't think so.

 

If we have just 21 Primary Dealers trading with each other world wide and everybody else has withdrawn the money, who actually cares whether the needle moves?

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:06 | 2611822 kito
kito's picture

Its laughable that people are anticipating a china implosion.....ain't gonna happen.....buy yuan.....be happy......

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:09 | 2611831 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

China just forrowing script according to their prans.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:33 | 2611863 ghenny
ghenny's picture

Dream on.  That's the kind of BS people were saying about Japan and look what happened to them.  Societies that don't do much immigration, have rapidly aging populations and are centrally controlled in theory while trying to operate a capitalist system eventually wind up in deep do do.  China is no different.  It will come faster for them because of the 1 child policy, the environmental disasters that are piliing up and because they are so much bigger and under the surface really out of control.  

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 00:35 | 2611938 kito
kito's picture

chinas "poor" population are rural dwellers who have saved all their life, have no debt, self sufficient, work hard, aren't feeding from the government teet.....lets compare that to americas poor population, shall we????......

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 00:42 | 2611946 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Sure, there is no arguing these Chinese work very hard. That doesn't mean the economy or political system is sound.

You may want to review what Jim Chanos has to say. Google it.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 04:58 | 2612087 kito
kito's picture

It means that a government which isn't drowning in debt while feeding and clothing half of it's households is alot better off than a country that is..............

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 06:18 | 2612105 mjk0259
mjk0259's picture

Which type of society is not ending up in deep do do?

The ones that allow a lot of immigration and end up with radically different subcultures and perpetual slums?

The ones that don't have rapidly aging populations- Nigeria? India?

Not centrally controlled in theory - US? Spain?

Trying to operate a socialist system - North Korea? Cuba?

 

 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:08 | 2611828 chump666
chump666's picture

All I saw was HFTs trade the number. China just gave the market it's consensus number of 7.6%, it is a pathetic and embarrassing number fudge.  China has sticky inflation and will continue to leak massive outflows, any inflows will be the goverment trying to play the property card with Yuan settlements.  I would say that China won't just crash, but economically explode...very soon.  They are losing control of reality.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:13 | 2611838 JackT
JackT's picture

Yeah, but she just tipped her hand. Remember she was suppose to save the world

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:23 | 2611854 chump666
chump666's picture

That is utterly frightening to think that the whole market believes that China is a Saviour, when every analyst working in western banks are stress testing for the China apocalyps.

I think the Citi guy was right, one big massive rally, next few weeks.  Then the end.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:46 | 2611885 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Then Krugman pops a boner and the real QE begins. Then the end.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 00:24 | 2611923 chump666
chump666's picture

haha, yes that would sound about right.

although *shudder* at Krugman with a boner.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:38 | 2612006 knukles
knukles's picture

Krugman is a Boner

BTW, where is the little shit?
Sure hasn't been here lately.
And the was it Kernan called him a Unicorn on CNBS?

LOL
Gone back to his nasty cubicle at the NYT and sharing cold coffee with Maureen Dowd and Tommie Freidman? 

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:46 | 2612013 chump666
chump666's picture

"sharing cold coffee with Maureen Dowd and Tommie Freidman?"

lol

I dig the guy at NYT who writes film reviews he is ok.

But Marketwatch are about to get their fat short squeeze

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 04:40 | 2612084 foxenburg
foxenburg's picture

Vincent Canby? or is he dead?

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:01 | 2611962 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Economic data, aggregate earnings strength & the USD alone are not conducive to a big rally. Also, we don't have the sentiment conditions to help move prices too far.

All we really have is the rest of earnings season and Apple (which we all know almost is a certain blowout) to move stocks. With a lot of luck and momentum we get a little above 1400, but with guidance being what it has been, I certainly wouldn't count on it.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:28 | 2611857 ghenny
ghenny's picture

I completely agree. How can anyone believe their numbers or that they are superhuman and can defy the laws of gravity and business cycles.  These guys are heading for a very hard landing.  They cannot possibly control a multi trillion dollar complex adaptive system with 1.2 billion people that are facing demographic disaster to the downside.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:11 | 2611830 JackT
JackT's picture

Pop n Lock..Pop n Lock..I never could get that dance move just right, but I had killer robot moves. Time to dire up some old tyme rap!

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:09 | 2611832 genr8n
genr8n's picture

Who can / would believe the "Chinese Official Data" print?

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:15 | 2611843 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Who can/would believe ours?

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 00:26 | 2611926 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

aren't you in China?

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:10 | 2611834 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

For the real deal, always follow the hot money. When the money goes, so does the growth.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:15 | 2611842 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

With the Baltic Dry Index reaching 2008 lows, Mayer Bloomberg has ingeniously thought out a way to curb empty shipping lines 

 Container apartments rent for 8 yuan a day

 

NYC real estate boom is merely a ground floor opportunity.

/sarc

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:19 | 2611850 Burr's 2nd Shot
Burr's 2nd Shot's picture

Remind me again, did Goldilocks get eaten by the bears, or did she live happily ever after?

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:37 | 2611871 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

SEC porn version?

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:25 | 2611856 chump666
chump666's picture

lol

*SG GDP drop + KR growth f'cast cut + ASEAN outflows sign of rising bearishness

 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:30 | 2611861 El Tuco
El Tuco's picture

I know someone from China will probably come on and tell me that I am wrong and everything is ok..blah..blah..blah...but I deal with about 5 -8 factories in China and they are starting to talk crazy and are just a few weeks away from begging me to place more orders. These aren't small factories. One is actually massive. Shit has slowed down and not just for them but for me too. So hard to predict what is gong to happen. Everyone I know including me is just trying to hold off and not spend any money. Which makes the situation worse I'd imagine. Even trucking is starting to slow. This just might be the second shoe dropping.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:42 | 2611880 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

The China bitchez need to agree with new WTO demands in order for them to roll out new subsidizes.

http://www.chinasubsidies.com/ 

hahahahaa. I can’t breathe from laughing so hard.. Hahahahahaha

 

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 00:42 | 2611945 adr
adr's picture

Same boat here. China built factories to pump out products for 2003-2007 America. Not a new American depression.

Factories are begging for orders, cutting prices, and paying for shipping. The workers are also wanting increased wages.

I wouldn't want to own a Chinese factory right now.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:35 | 2611868 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"...the Chinese continue to impress with their 'data' showing the first engineered 'soft-landing' in history."

I like the "New, Kinder, Gentler Tyler Durden."

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:40 | 2611875 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Who are the assholes bidding up S&P futures tonight?!

Moody's downgraded Italy ahead of the bond auction.

Chinese fake made-up GDP numbers were bad (real numbers are even worse). Shanghai Composite is flat to down after the data.

Singapore GDP contracted 1.1%.

Yet, the assholes (JPM prop fuckers?) are bidding up the futures tonight.

 

 

 

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 00:43 | 2611947 adr
adr's picture

NY Fed, same as always.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 02:01 | 2612025 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

NY Fed / Goldman / Citadel have been using Aleynikov Algo lately to violently mark down VIX and mark up ES before the close.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:13 | 2611975 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

You must be sitting on an open short position. You should close that baby well before Apple announces.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:51 | 2612020 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Do you really think I need a market advice from an Apple fanboy?

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:41 | 2611877 indianajohns04
indianajohns04's picture

futures are back @ highs my vxx is going to get crushed over the next week where is the fear

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:16 | 2611979 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Earnings season bro. Apple coming right up.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 03:37 | 2612066 Piranha
Piranha's picture

yep after apple earnings market will start to look ugly

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:44 | 2611882 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The entire world economy is in the tank.

 

Question:  What happens to stocks when things improve?

Question:  Why is ES trading over 1300 and not crashing towards 800?

 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:51 | 2611891 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Did RobotTrader just say something true, honest, and accurate?

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 00:15 | 2611915 gjp
gjp's picture

Except for the "when things improve" part

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 00:28 | 2611928 The They
The They's picture

Things WILL improve... after they get much worse.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 00:33 | 2611932 chump666
chump666's picture

Very good point and can be answered, viola: 

HFTs are supporting the 100ma's, big players lay down longs on hopium trades.  This will happen for awhile until the big sell and no we haven't got there yet.

The sell?  Well, when the market mis-prices risk from either 1. CDS trades  2. Bond/Bunds/Gilts collapse 3.  China explodes 4.  Iran shoots a missile at Saudi Arabia. 

Time frame now till the end of 2012.  So the June 20th trading top will still be maintained hence the swing trades to the all-out-bidless trade.

In summary, the HFTs are gaming everyone including their own CPU's. 

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 00:53 | 2611955 adr
adr's picture

The answer to your question Robo, is epic fraud. Total manipulation, channel stuffing, accounting books deep fried and extra crispy.

If you can't figure out that this market is propped up by the biggest pile of BS ever to fall on planet Earth, there is no hope for you.

Why isn't the market crashing? Belief that bubble valuations are real. Recent examples are 1999 and 2007. How can one possibly believe that a company can grow into valuations that require them to take over their entire market segment and expand fully into 100 others?

I remember when I was hired as a consltant for a company and the owner believed his company could grow to $300 million from $10 million. I asked him how he thought that was possible when the entire market for the product he sold, across 15 different companies, was only $200 million. Somehow he would take all the business of the other 15 corproations and find non existent people to sell another $100 million to?

The valuation of the stock market is so absurd, you have to be retarded or insane by definition to believe it.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:20 | 2611986 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Earnings growth has been stellar.

Good luck with that.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 23:49 | 2611890 q99x2
q99x2's picture

No news is not good news.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 00:32 | 2611922 ekm
ekm's picture

Ok, let me give you the real clue as to when China collapses, from personal experience back in time in communism in eastern europe. People were moved from village to cities.

Communism would have never ever collapsed until.................it ran out of food to feed the people. Life was good until..................food stamps for everybody. It took 50 years, but it collapsed NOT GRADUALLY but BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAM.

 

As to China, they are forcing villagers away from their lands that produce food, into big buildings. Hence, they have to work to obtain money to buy food. It's impossible to provide food for so many HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF people that used to feed themselves before. Same as with communism in eastern europe, it will NOT be gradual, it will be BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAM.

The communist have only ONE enemy in China ------------FOOD PRICE INFLATION. If they build and destroy and build  and destroy and build and destroy and build and destroy, it always increases the price of commodities, hence it increases the PRICE OF FOOD. Tien An Men in 1989 was a FOOD INFLATION PROTEST.

Current protests in China are against authorities taking away the food producing lands.

Collapse = Guaranteed.

Sign of Collapse = FOOD PRICE INFLATION.

When = God knows.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 00:45 | 2611948 chump666
chump666's picture

Very good post.

My Brazilian friends remind me why they bough en masse USDs in the 1980s/90s = inflation.

China is  doing exactly the same thing, buying up huge amounts of USD to offset China losing purchasing power.

 

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 00:53 | 2611957 moskov
moskov's picture

Maybe China needs to dumP more treasury bills to gain the purchase power back?

BRazil doesn't have that position, china has

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:42 | 2612008 chump666
chump666's picture

Grow balls and do it!  F*ck Obama, send rates up, will be the best thing that ever happen to the US ecomomy in the last 10yrs.  The biggest rate manipulators in history is the Fed, no doubt there.

No one wants to tighten, take short term pain, that is the problem.  So we are f*cked thanks to central banks and goverments...all goverments in this world

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:34 | 2612004 knukles
knukles's picture

 

 

 

See... BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAM

The Rise and Fall of the Emril Empire

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:32 | 2611997 knukles
knukles's picture

OK  Here's the deal
The Chinee economy is so big, stuffed chockablock full of so many fucking people who can't even see anybody else through the smog and stink that even estimating any sense of economic activity aside from Ms. Chopchops Lychee Giraffe Testicle and Stir-fry Shoppe across the square from the Venerable Great Big People's Hall of Mirrors is just an absurdity to begin with.
Then adding idiocy to genital (or is that genetically) defective and illogical assumptions tempered by false data massaged by the good fairies who'd make the BLS seasonal business look tame, there exist a whole buncha estimates from private sources who have no fucking clue what the hell is even going on next door let alone looking out of Sarah Palin's kitchen window toward the west.
Then, surprise surprise the estimates from private sector economists just keep keeping on with arch precision within a millisecond of light speed differentials as measured by the venturi tubes between the Moon and Saturn and viol-fucking-a, the numbers are spot on.
Which begs the question:

How in God's name does anybody even pay any attention to all this crap when it's just plain rubbish to begin with?.

Here's Knukles' analysis;  There be a whole lotta horny Chinee procreating and as long as the population keeps expanding like its doing, then the economy is bound to grow, sometimes quickly, sometimes slowly but will always tend to grow if we think about it. 

Now, another measure of accuracy is found in the St. Francis prayer, named after St. Francis of Assisi who lived from the late 1100's through about 1225, which we know because he was registered to vote in Italy during that time.  However, the prayer attributed to him by everybody and their uncle was not published, seen, nor hear of until 1912.   
Now there's some accuracy for ya'll. 

So what, might you ask, has that got to do with China's GDP?  Nothing.  What it has to do with, is quit pretending that you/we are getting anything like real information.

As Robert Mitchum is said to have whispered to Jeff Bridges at an Academy Awards ceremony once (not the rumored part of the story):  "Just remember kid, it's all bullshit anyhow." 

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:40 | 2612007 fourchan
fourchan's picture

re plain rubbish

we are pigs feeding at the feds plain rubbish trough for 100 years, we pigs are convinced plain rubbish is

real good food becaused we are conditioned to do so. our entire system is bullshit, ponzie, and worthless,

 

just like chinas gdp numbers

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:49 | 2612019 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Looks like you got in before me on the reply. I guess I took too long to write it.

Let's use your comment as a case in point, OK?

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:57 | 2612017 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

The wisdom of Robert Mitchum re: Hollywood applies to financial markets as well.  Getting on here and talking about - how things should change / must change / any minute now we swear / math doesn't lie - is a fool's game.  Think on that the next time you get on here and comment.

And so I vote that knukles had the best comments on ZH today...a day not unlike every other on ZH: great news from Tyler and friends, some funny comments and few interesting links from the commenters, and a bunch of nonsense and complaining from them, too.

I'm gonna punch out leaving the Prayer of St. Francis.  I think it's a beautiful thing regardless of the year it came out and whose uncle knows it:

Lord, make me an instrument of your peace.
Where there is hatred, let me sow love.
Where there is injury, pardon.
Where there is doubt, faith.
Where there is despair, hope.
Where there is darkness, light.
Where there is sadness, joy.
O Divine Master,
grant that I may not so much seek to be consoled, as to console;
to be understood, as to understand;
to be loved, as to love.
For it is in giving that we receive.
It is in pardoning that we are pardoned,
and it is in dying that we are born to Eternal Life.
Amen.

Personally I don't see Zero Hedge (or more importantly the world) changing in a more meaningful, more accelerated direction until people start to focus on the good that they do, and the positive change they affect. 

But if you just want to make this site a giant complaints inbox, getting off on how smart you are, then so it goes. 

Things are getting better.  It's just a question of how fast or slow they do.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 04:06 | 2612074 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"For things to get better people must get better." Amen to that.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 09:10 | 2612470 knukles
knukles's picture

The allegorical tale of Fight Club addresses exactly that... people getting better.... to get to know the inner self, and once at peace with themselves, being at peace with the world... affording them the ability to do the "next right thing". 
An otherwise terribly difficult personal agenda when feeding the wrong motivation, the illusions of false pride .

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 02:21 | 2612037 upb
upb's picture

we should see a nice move in the markets tomorrow, $SPY at an important level right now.

 

http://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/where-i-see-the-market-going-tomorrow-and-next-week/

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 02:40 | 2612042 Peter K
Peter K's picture

Just in case you missed this, yesterday's DT:

17.15 Still on a Spanish theme, economy minister Luis de Guindos has told German newspaper, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, that his country would take full liability for the European loans to its banking system and added that there was no risk of losses for creditors:

We take liability for repayment. I am convinced there will not be the slightest loss for creditors

He told the paper that Spain needed a maximum of €62bn for its troubled banks, but had asked for €100bn to provide an additional "security cushion".

16.53 Spanish banks are joining the queue to get a slice of the country's rescue package for its struggling lenders.

Novagalicia Bank has asked for €6bn to repair its damaged balance sheet. The unlisted regional bank, taken over by the state last year when it became clear it could not cope with huge loans to a collapsed real estate sector, is likely to be among the first to receive EU funds.

Therefore, the midnight texting: It was all one big scam.

So if we are going after bankers for misleading customers in the Lieborgate, shouldn't we go after the Eurotrash pols also?

Just sayin.....

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 04:59 | 2612088 silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

The economic reality in China is:

Property is flatlining up in some cities down it others, not much new is being built and what was vacant is being filled. It is all healthy as supply is shrinkimg everyday due to culturally driven demand. Govt can kick start property boom tomorrow by dropping deposits to 20% and allowing multiple mortagages at 20%.

Factories producing for US and European markets are down as US and Europe are in recession/depression. Factories producing for Chinese and developing world production is increasing.

Retail is booming as Chinese are learning how to spend and live.

Stock markets mean nothing so who cares what they are doing. The companies are all growing.

Bottom line is China is battening down the hatches and getting its house in order as we are all sailing into the mother of all economic storms. As the masses are buying Gold and Silver have f*ck all debt they will ride it out better than most.

*Discussing China economic statistics is as intelligent as discussion western economic statistics.

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