The Anti-Goldilocks? China's HSBC Flash PMI Beats But Contraction Remains

Tyler Durden's picture


China's April HSBC Flash PMI came slightly stronger than expected but suggests manufacturing may remain in a contractionary state for the sixth month in a row. The problem for all those stimulus junkies is that while it does suggest contraction, the data rose modestly from last month's final HSBC Manufacturing PMI print. So is this data not cold enough for massive stimulus (which Australia must be craving given tonight's dismal PPI print) and not warm enough for the 'double-rip' camp and the expected hockey-stick in global growth that is to occur any moment now? For now the market seems on the fence.

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Sun, 04/22/2012 - 22:46 | 2365876 chump666
chump666's picture

Short Australia.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 22:56 | 2365895 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Long Bankers.  

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 23:02 | 2365904 chump666
chump666's picture

...and short nooses.

The final curtain approaches.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 23:05 | 2365911 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Long lead and brass.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 22:49 | 2365884 SHEEPFUKKER

If they were smart, they would stop exporting all of their natural resources for worthless fiat in order to blow up a housing bubble. Oh wait.....

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 23:21 | 2365932 Thunder_Downunder
Thunder_Downunder's picture

Thats called free trade our major ally told us so..... the US is increasing their troop presence here, just to make sure it stays 'free'.... it would of course be anti-competitive or terrorist or something if we should trade in RMBs.. or *gasp* gold...


Those troops will protect us from misguided thoughts and keep us on the straight and narrow...



Sun, 04/22/2012 - 23:21 | 2365894 booboo
booboo's picture

aussies are swimming in pools of gold, eating loin of lamb in million dollar mansions and all driving Rump Rangers, I swear, they said so.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 01:33 | 2366030 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Lamb, Rump?...we neglected our OTHER Primary Industries years ago and opted to sell dirt because we can

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 22:57 | 2365897 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Damn Chinese. Don't you know you're supposed to out out weaker numbers so Ben can print ? Oh wait ... Maybe you do know and you're just sick of Ben trying to pay you off with worthless dollars.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 23:14 | 2365922 CURWAR2012
CURWAR2012's picture

Ben will print my friend, Bennie will be buying the ink himself (inflated price of course). Be patient and keep stacking the PM to the max (unleveraged of course).

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 23:18 | 2365930 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Oh I know he'll print. He has no choice, but to print. There isn't anybody out there to buy all this debt. My guess is he will be printing by August. Gas prices moving down now will give him a little breathing room as well as the weaker numbers.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 23:02 | 2365907 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

pmi is always and everywhere a made up number that can mean whatever you want it to mean. there is no spoon.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 23:12 | 2365920 chump666
chump666's picture

Ha.  Watching HFTs game retail/funds on the ASX200, Aust weak PMI, China HSBC weak PMI (slightly fudged by a bank that loves to have a majority share in the Asian market - HSBC).  The con is over. 

Overbought markets look fragile and broken.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 23:15 | 2365923 Thunder_Downunder
Thunder_Downunder's picture

I can tell you that one of our biggest coal miners has canned discretionary projects, halted any new projects, and has a complete hiring freeze (and has been in place for 3 months). 


The miners can see the turd in the punchbowl, even if the media and 'economic professionals' cannot...

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 23:20 | 2365931 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Why would they start any new projects? Obummer made it a campaign promise to bankrupt them. It looks like he aims to keep that promise.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 23:26 | 2365937 Thunder_Downunder
Thunder_Downunder's picture

New projects isn't just new mines... IT and infrastructure refreshes.

They're in lockdown at that moment, trying to squeeze every last penny for shareholders. This is a large shift from just 6 months ago. Policy action by the big boys is a pretty decent leading indicator of risk sentiment. They didn't get to be huge chucking a wiley coyotying off a cliff.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 05:56 | 2366124 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

is that just coal or across other mining sectors or sectors?


any sites you could recommend that track OZ real investment?


Mon, 04/23/2012 - 23:06 | 2369016 Thunder_Downunder
Thunder_Downunder's picture

Don't know many good ones.. Australians are pretty crap at the 'interweb'.


A very popular one, if not the most popular is (don't know if its good or not). A lot of shills in there, but quite a few employees and connected speculators too.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 12:11 | 2373699 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture


Sun, 04/22/2012 - 23:49 | 2365956 chump666
chump666's picture

BoFA brain-dead and should no better.  Countdown now the tidal wave of bad loans, grey/black money disappearing, property/commercial projects collapsing in every-direction and the steel/copper stockpiles just sitting there (overcapacity).  Oh and inflation on oil imports.


No, just looking down the cliff face

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 23:50 | 2365958 dust to dust
dust to dust's picture

 Just what is China exporting? Keep it home Dudes.  

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 00:22 | 2365979 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

China "slowdown" is:

1) From 10% growth to 8%......hardly "slow".

2) Intentional, to combat inflation (a good idea, actually!)

3) A media scam to keep our $$$ in US equities.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 00:27 | 2365980 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I'd bet the Chinese are learning channel stuffing from GM.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 04:06 | 2366096 vnguru
vnguru's picture

You're right! Chinese seem to learn other tips so quickly. Policy action by the big boys is a pretty decent leading indicator of risk sentiment. in futures trading and emini futures trading, Chinese alway use their tips to get benifit.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 00:29 | 2365987 ekm
ekm's picture

Whose buttocks is BofA calling?

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 01:02 | 2366007 q99x2
q99x2's picture

HSBC now there's a company you can trust for information. HSBC most recent claim to fame - money laundering Jan 2012.

I would not consider them a reliable source for anything other than criminal information.


Mon, 04/23/2012 - 01:17 | 2366023 Change-In-Trend
Change-In-Trend's picture

Newsletter - retest lows due in early May

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 01:39 | 2366033 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

it's gone mainstream; what with chuck rose running a symposium of european and imf leaders and 60 minutes leading with a story on lehman.  'THEY' get it; it is a confidence game.  A charade.  A fraud.

all of the fancy talk to dance around (obfucate) the main issues is nothing more than an attempt by sychophants to uphold the positions of sociopaths.

why others cannot see this is beond me, perhaps i am wrong (if i am, it's all cool, i started a company that leases wheel barrels)

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 02:36 | 2366050 Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture


Mon, 04/23/2012 - 02:40 | 2366053 GlenD
GlenD's picture

China exports of WPC (worthless peaces of crap) may have slowed but not its exports of labour. New bridges have to be built, roads replaced, security camera's errected, and china has millions of little people that can do it. Being small they can be transported in ships at minimal cost,  they promise excellent fuel economy with low maintenance and if they ever do complain, nobody will understand a word of it. The perfect labourer all for $100 rental a month each.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 03:12 | 2366074 l1b3rty
l1b3rty's picture

i wonder when there will be a point where chinese sell gold and silver due to liquidity problems...

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 06:27 | 2366137 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

I am sure Ctrl+P will sort that out, so no need to worry, back to sleep, back to sleeeeee.............................ZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzz

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 05:35 | 2366118 silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

HSBC crap.

China will keep growing while controlling inflation and flatlining property.

OZ will continue to grow with China.

Dollar and Euro are fucked so buy silver.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 06:25 | 2366136 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Just been quoted £25-26 per oz for the Canadian Maple Leaf, from my local dealer. Er, I just reserved the lot. Thank you Blythe, you little minx! Say hi to Jamie, send him my best wishes, and keep up the good work that you are doing on behalf of your muppet investors (because after all, you must hedge their investments in this volitile world in which we live!) xxx

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 06:33 | 2366143 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

thats a once in a generation opportunity

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 06:37 | 2366146 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Agreed, it has been over a year and a half since I was last quoted that price, I could not believe my ears, its so undervalued its a joke!

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