Anti-Tilson ETF Basket Leads The Way Early In 2012

Tyler Durden's picture


The most popular talking-head on financial TV (after Bill Miller and Byron Wien), Whitney Tilson, has not had a #winning year so far. In fact the simple pair trade Anti-Tilson (Long GMCR-Short Netflix which we closed when it returned 50% in just over a month), that was so popular last year, has been expanded to include his biggest shorts (as we promised yesterday). While we do not know weightings (obviously), on an equal-weighted basis from today's price, Tilson's 10 largest shorts have managed an impressive 7.37% gain on the year, handily outperforming his 15 largest longs which have managed a sub-market performance gain year-to-date of 1.45%. So being long Whitney's shorts and short the-ever-smiling manager's longs (on an equal weighted basis) would have made you around 6% year-to-date - considerably better than the +2.5% move in the S&P itself.

Tilson's longs have managed a 1.45% equal-weighted (based on today's price) performance YTD - compared to +2.5% YTD for the S&P 500. The list of 15 longs is: BRK, BUD, C, GS, HHC, IRDM, JCP, MRVC, MSFT, NFLX, PBY, PRIS, SDK, and WFC.

Tilson's Top 10 shorts (CRM, ESI, ETH, FSLR, GMCR, GRMN, IOC, LULU, NOK, and PVH) has managed to gain 7.37% (equal-weighted based on today's price) year-to-date which given it is short is not so good...

The 6% loss (+1.45% - 7.37%) overall (which reflects our equal-weighted indices) offers a healthy +6% gain for our Anti-Tilson ETF (no it doesn't really exist) and we suspect will be the new year's gift that keeps on giving.


Chart: Bloomberg

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Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:09 | 2055731 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Anti-Tilson ETF Basket Leads The Way Early in 2012"

The gift that keeps on giving. Thank you Santa Tyler.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:25 | 2055801 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

AND!!! You can double up on Cramer!

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:58 | 2055972 Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

Is that how "triple" is spelled in Austrian?

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 19:07 | 2056476 JohnG
JohnG's picture

I think he's Belgian, so it would of course be Tripel.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 21:05 | 2056840 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Ok let us know when Tilson buys Silver (maybe never maybe at 600 USD per ounce.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:09 | 2055734 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Give 'im credit for consistency.  Didn't let the turning of the year phase him.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:12 | 2055745 iceman321_2k2
Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:21 | 2055769 Prairie Fire
Prairie Fire's picture

Fucking idiot asshole.

You know there's really no difference between million dollar fuckups like Tillson and the average ex-used car salesman pitching mutual funds to retired pensioners.

The only way to make it these days is to invest alone or not at all.

Fuck the world.

EDIT: I'm going to put together a few Anti-Baskets of the 'top' investment pro's on the canadian side of things and start tracking it.

Again, fuck the world. 

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 21:14 | 2056871 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

We are not all idiots I have 11 years with no down year, do not short Greg Bolland´s West Face, I have talked to the guy once, the guy is sharp as a razor.



Wed, 01/11/2012 - 21:27 | 2056918 Prairie Fire
Prairie Fire's picture

I'll start doing some dd right now.

As far as no down years out of 11, big fucking deal. It's only the last 5 that count. Are you a wealth manager? How much under management beside your own practice account?

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:20 | 2055781 Snake Plissken
Snake Plissken's picture

End the FED

End the Wars

End the fractional reserve banking system


Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:22 | 2055791 brew
brew's picture

whats that have to do with the anti-tilson etf basket...

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:24 | 2055798 Snake Plissken
Snake Plissken's picture

This is just noise.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 17:34 | 2056144 brew
brew's picture

you're preaching to the choir though...

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:30 | 2055830 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



He is a one-trick pony, Mr. brew.  Possible campaign staffer.  Nine weeks of Paul-2012 posts.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:34 | 2055851 Snake Plissken
Snake Plissken's picture

But what a pony.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:36 | 2055871 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



+1 for purest post of the day...on a call out no less.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:59 | 2055975 Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

Were ponies included in Obama's "Let Them Eat Horse" bill?

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:24 | 2055799 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Speaking of Whitneys, how is Meredith doing these days?

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:32 | 2055842 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture




...heard she's on a bus tour of 50 cities, prolly trying to intimidate them into defaulting so she can regain credibility.

(she's right, just early)

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:35 | 2055856 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Hehe.  And just by making the Citibank call makes her a heroine forever.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:25 | 2055803 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I need a pay raise. Scratch that! I need to get paid period! I recommended one stock at the 2009 low (Wisconsin Energy) and not only did it proceed to double right back to its all time has proceeded to break out with "that little bank called UBS" putting a buy order on it. I'd sell but ever since Swiss President Sir Gotmore Wherethat Camefrom Knighted our very own Bruce for outing the SNB's wife....

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:28 | 2055819 gmak
gmak's picture

How come ZH is always picking on Tilson? Isn't this kind of the story for most hedge fund managers with small pies?

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:40 | 2055888 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

In these days of beta uber alles, we will take our alpha however we can.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:44 | 2055911 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



By "pies" do you mean brains or "financial assets?"  Either works.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 21:35 | 2056939 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Tilson can thank Darwin for having such a long neck and liking to stick it out there. 


I love it. It's hilarious when Tyler nails them! Whoever complained ZH doesn't deal in tradeable news is full of crap, it's everywhere, and Tilson was just for kicks. The Tilsons out there will keep losing people money if they're not called on it. One can only hope other "experts" will see ZH and fear being similarly mocked before they opine.




Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:29 | 2055826 chump666
chump666's picture


Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:30 | 2055831 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Whitney Tilson is not alone.


Anybody who bet on the following:

1) Consumer Crashing and Burning

2) Resource Scarcity

3) Peak Oil

4) Dollar Crash

5) Skyrocketing Interest Rates

6) Muni-Bonds Imploding

7) Continuing Bear Market in the S & P 500

They all suffered horrific losses betting on these themes.

So many "experts" got all these dead wrong.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 17:01 | 2055984 Matt
Matt's picture

Where is the RobotTrader VS MillionDollarBonus_ thread I'm waiting for? I'm expecting MDB to lecture you on how the professional traders know what their doing, and trading against them by conspiracy doomers is bound to fail.

But wait, it looks like your list is of professional doomers, so are they wrong for being doomers or right for being highly paid professionals? I'm confused.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:32 | 2055839 jarboejl
jarboejl's picture

Ugh, when will this retarded shit-for-volume meltup finally fall to pieces?  Guess they gotta get more suckers' 401k money in on the long side first.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:35 | 2055857 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



I was thinkin' that the Fed coffers ought to be gettin' a good boost these days from all the penalty taxes from 401(k) liquidations.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:33 | 2055849 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

In other news: BAC up 35% from the $5 level.. where some lunatics thought a dip below $5 would spell doom.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:35 | 2055863 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Did Warren Buffett take another bubble bath?

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:39 | 2055884 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

So now it is only down 50% from a year ago, when sector rotation also took it higher only for it to leak ever lower all year?

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 17:20 | 2056082 kito
kito's picture

tyler, its useless, you just cant hang with these spectacular hindsight, after the fact stock pickers. it takes such courage on their part to play monday morning quarterback............their calls are always so perfectly timed.................

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:42 | 2055898 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

BAC up 35% from the $5 level.. where some lunatics thought a dip below $5 would spell doom.


Yes...over a one-fifth retracement to its sterling $12.98 close at 12/31/10.  'member waaaaay back in the 07s when it traded in the $50s?  All that stuff bin fixed?

Lunatic on, Garth.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:35 | 2055859 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Hostess Brands files for bankruptcy -

Et tu, Twinkie?

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:46 | 2055918 kito
kito's picture

im starting to feel bad for tilson, really. tyler is absolutely crushing this guy..............

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:53 | 2055947 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



...he should just quit.

Tilson that is...Durden will never quit (skinny guys fight 'till they're burger).

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 16:49 | 2055936 huckman
huckman's picture

"Kyle Bass redux"  How did this get missed?  Tks yutube.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 17:11 | 2056042 I should be working
I should be working's picture

He's short NOK?  Someone needs to learn how to quit while he's ahead.  I would advise the same on NFLX, but he bought for over 100.  So quit while you're less behind.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 19:27 | 2056557 Luke 21
Luke 21's picture

Geez, Tyler. Take it easy on Tilson. Give the poor guy a break. I hope he kills it in 2012. No need to broadcast his every mistake on the largest financial blog for everyone to see. The Tilson posts always make me laugh, but it is not fair to him. It's not like he is Ben Bernanke. I think I am going to go buy a ticket to the value investing congress just out of sympathy. 

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