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Anti-Tilson: The Gift That Keeps On Giving

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Our favorite trade since Friday, November 11, when Whitney Tilson went public with his short GMCR, Long NFLX theses, namely to do the opposite and Buy GMCR and Sell NFLX has now returned 40% in 6 days. And we don't even collect 2 and 20, nor do we organize hedge fund hotel symposia.

 

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Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:10 | 1902426 SteveNYC
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Pure. Gold.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:34 | 1902531 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

I'm sure if a Zero Hedge Hedge Fund were started there would be "no shortage of interest!"

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:36 | 1902542 Mikehy
Mikehy's picture

and no shortage of shorting

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:38 | 1902552 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Yeah, fund objective: short the Momo's - Tilson, Bove, Kass, Gartman, Briggs, Etc....

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 12:48 | 1902798 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Just damned unlucky really, no one could have seen that one coming...

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:11 | 1902427 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

But I want the hookers. You are not providing full service.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:17 | 1902455 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

GFE or BBBJ???

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:11 | 1902429 bigwavedave
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Pure Value

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:13 | 1902438 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Direxion needs a new product: 3X leveraged Bear Tilson ETF.   Symbol: ATE.  (Anti-Tilson ETF). 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:17 | 1902452 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

I want in on this offering.

+1

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:25 | 1902486 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Fuck it, why not a whole new ETF series?

APE : 3 X leveraged bear Paulson ETF

ATE: 3 x leveraged bear Tepper ETF.

AKE: 3 x leveraged bear Kass ETF

My favorite:

ABE: 3 x leveraged bear Biggs ETF.

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:15 | 1902442 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

OT, but is the gold and silver market going to get even more royally ram-rodded now that JPM is takign over MF Global's stake in LME?  What do the silver bears think of that?


JP Morgan (JPM) is to acquire MF Global's 4.7% stake in the London Metal Exchange - sources

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:17 | 1902457 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Which silver bears?

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:57 | 1902629 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

I hope there are many!

"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." - Mark Twain.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:23 | 1902480 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Oh snap. Looks like MF's crash and burn may had more to it than just a few bad bets.  Shocker. Where's Jonny boy. Anybody seen him?

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 17:20 | 1904194 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Clowngress sent him an invite for a sitdown on how he's always in the wrong place at the right time...

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:15 | 1902443 Zola
Zola's picture

The question is Tyler would you have put your entire fund into that trade or not ...

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:24 | 1902483 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Since it was a trade recommended to "The Hedge at Large", I'd say that's a Q for you to A.

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:23 | 1902453 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Tilson is the most over-hyped and overrated imbecile.

Anytime someone claims to be a "value" investor, it means the clueless creature does not know how to invest and hopes that eventually (within next 10-20 years) inflation will bail him/her out.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:17 | 1902456 junkyardjack
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It looks like GMCR is starting to turn the corner on its short covering

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:17 | 1902460 YesWeKahn
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This is better than any 3X ETF.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:18 | 1902464 Mercury
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And we don't even collect 2 and 20, nor do we organize hedge fund hotel symposia.

Bring back Radio Zero and all will be forgiven!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:20 | 1902469 fuu
fuu's picture

Bring out yer beatz!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 19:00 | 1904574 justrichard
justrichard's picture

+1
Marla was 'da best.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:19 | 1902467 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Nit Whit.  Ouch dude, you'd be better off hitting the roulette wheel. At least it would be more fun. 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:22 | 1902474 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Tilson is going to be one unhappy hedgie come EOQ.  I hope his clients are keeping up-to-date with his performance on ZH here.  

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:28 | 1902499 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Tilson may very well be the poster child for "Pride comes before a fall".

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:32 | 1902519 hedgeless_horseman
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I tried to annualize the return, but couldn't find a ruler long enough. 

Where is Birinyi when we need him?

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:39 | 1902558 rambler6421
rambler6421's picture

Tyler should start his own hedge fund.

 

libertarian86.blogspot.com

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:46 | 1902589 ChiefJohnRutledge
ChiefJohnRutledge's picture

Titney is getting his tits ripped off. Short coffee and long DVDs. What a trade.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:49 | 1902602 bania
bania's picture

Tyler, Tilson said "uncle" already, and he's tapping out.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 17:21 | 1904207 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Perhaps he shoulda went limp...

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:51 | 1902606 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Tilson studied at and graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College with a bachelor's degree in Government. He then went on to gain an MBA with High Distinction from Harvard Business School, where he was elected a Baker Scholar (top 5% of class).[3]

Hee, hee.  The market punishes the lazy, the stupid, and the smart alike.  It literally eats dentists, engineers, and doctors for dinner.  The market punishes the people who think they have it all figured out.  Tilson has brains, but brains alone only make one good at copying what other people are doing.  That works great during a bull market, but not so well other times.

Brains are not enough.  The market will only consistently reward wisdom. 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:58 | 1902635 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture
"What a wise man can do, that can't be done by someone who's merely clever,
is make a right judgment in an unprecedented situation."

--John Brunner, The Shockwave Rider, 1975 (the book in which he posited the invention of the 'worm' as a computer virus)
Tue, 11/22/2011 - 12:04 | 1902654 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Read the book about LTCM.  Meriwether had endless PhDs and nobel prize winners.  When things went south he called in a street smart Italian-American trader who probably did not graduate high school. Meriwether with his U ChIcago MBA was talking up the book. The trader went through the book and shook his head.  The trader was telling Meriwether that LTCM was toast and if anyone knew they were in trouble they would gang up on LTCM to destroy them.

Shortly after that - LTCM was at the NY Fed signing surrender papers. Many of those PhDs were crying when they signed because they were wiped out financially.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 12:11 | 1902673 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

And we don't even collect 2 and 20, nor do we organize hedge fund hotel symposia.

Nor leverage the position 30 to 1.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 12:34 | 1902747 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

GMCR was nothing more then a big bag of blow that all the addicts wanted to stick a straw into. Once the junkies hit the ultimate high the dealer took away their supply and left them with nothing more then empty pockets and withdrawels. Now we have the jonesing junkies pooling what money they have left to get another fix. The straws are back in the bag however this time the party is going to be short lived, there simply just isn't enough to go around. My suggestion for those GMCR junkies, find the nearest methadone clinic and try to get your life back...

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:50 | 1950725 bonkthegrups
bonkthegrups's picture

The only problem with your analysis is that you state    "Our favorite trade since Friday, November 11, when Whitney Tilson went public with his short GMCR," is that it is utter nonsense.  Tilson actuall annouced publicly that he was short GMCR on October 17:

http://webfarm.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&tkr=GMCR:US&sid=a3TDoF26oFXs

So he actually would have gone short GMCR in the $90+ range.  So he shorted it from $90+ down to $43, where you convenient put on your "anti-Tilson-buy GMCR trade", and then highlight the fact that it bounces back to the 50s as evidence that he doesn't know what he's doing?

Even at today's price of $59 it is still down 35%+ from where he went short only a couple of months ago.  I'd say that's a great trade. 

Throw in the fact that these two trades would be a small subset of T2's portfolio, and you don't know how they are sized or how the positions were put on (T2 has been known to use options) and it makes for good fiction.

It's a proven fact that the best long-term fund managers go through (sometimes extended) periods of underperformance  (e.g. Buffett during the dot-com craze).  If you look at T2's flagship fund since inception in 1999 to today (available on the web in their Q3 letter), they have, even with the recent underperformance, returned 5X the return of the S&P 500.  In other words, they are up 100% over the period while the S&P500 is up about 20%.

For shame. 

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