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Apple Angst As Expectations Remain Extreme

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Apple is down 1.5% pre-market and comfortably back below its 50DMA on a top-line (and notably activations) miss from AT&T among other anxiety-inducing sentiment this morning. Perhaps what is really providing all the performance anxiety is the extreme expectations that are piled upon this greater-than-bellwether stock that has become the market. As Bloomberg's chart-of-the-day notes, Apple needs to surpass estimates by a wider margin than most of its peers in the S&P 500 in order to satisfy investors - if history is any guide. On an adjusted per-share basis, profits have beaten estimates by about 19% on average over the past seven years - a true under-promise over-deliver strategy. As Colin Gillis of BGC Partners notes, "Apple will need to smash records to keep momentum" as surpassing the $9.98/share by 20% is an impressive feat indeed as they point out that seven of the nine times Apple's shares have fallen the day after earnings has been when earnings beat by less than 20%. Performance anxiety indeed.

 

And AAPL is stumbling once again this morning...

 

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Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:58 | 2369467 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

What happens in pre is just noise to get the retail sheep excited. Nobody would actually move any sort of size during p/m or a/h

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:09 | 2369511 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

True indeed.

Expectations are high. That's a setup. Competitors are always around the corner in this market segment - nothing lasts forever.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:15 | 2369528 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Strong support at $550. Savvy value investors will be looking to take advantage of any temporary arbitrage should there be a sell off.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:16 | 2369539 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Was $650 just a few days ago douche nozzle.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:30 | 2369550 Badabing
Badabing's picture

Bite to deep into the AAPL and you get a mouth full of seeds.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:45 | 2369624 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

 Apple seeds do contain a small amount of cyanide, which is a lethal poison, but you are protected from the toxin by the hard seed coating. If you eat whole apple seeds, they pass through your digestive system relatively untouched. If you chew the seeds thoroughly, you will be exposed to the chemicals inside the seeds, but the dose of toxins in an apple is small enough that your body can easily detoxify it......

Or so they say anyway.


Very interesting, only slightly tangential note on apple.

Apple is very poorly represented in India. Overpriced, crappy stores, poorly trained personnel, crappy service, high high prices.... why? India, a market overwhelmed by the desire for all things white and shiney, why?

So, Apple has virtually shut themselves out of one of the fastest growing and most easily fooled consumer electronics markets in the world., giving way to Samsung.

I smell collusion, price and gepgraphy fixing.

May it fall, gravitaionally assisted at 9.8 m/sec2

By the way, for those of occult leanings, an Apple's core makes a pentagram.

ori

/socfo-r-u-cultural/

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:52 | 2369658 NewWorldOrange
NewWorldOrange's picture

iBubble

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:25 | 2369754 Metalredneck
Metalredneck's picture

If at first, you don't suck seed, keep on sucking 'til you do suck seed...

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:21 | 2369552 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

650 .. 550 .. what difference does it make when the short term price target is 700, followed by 1000 shortly after?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:24 | 2369568 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Baked in and guaranteed!

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:31 | 2369592 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

$1,000 is whose target, yours? Then I'm sure youre all in leveraged....sleep well toots.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:37 | 2369616 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Hey MDB, you wouldn't be talking your book, would you??  Hint: that thing in your mouth after biting the apple ain't a seed.....

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:43 | 2369626 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

7 minutes into trading.....

 

Volume........................1.12 Mil

Avg Daily Vol (13 Wks)..23.45 Mil

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 19:40 | 2371888 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

The difference is the short-term target is more like 500 and the long-term target is more like 400

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:27 | 2369578 nugjuice
nugjuice's picture

I would hardly call one resistance test at $550 'strong' support. More like the 'only' support above about $400

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:30 | 2369587 resurger
resurger's picture

i cant wait, when it reaches the support level of 550 i will sell more

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 19:41 | 2371893 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Strong support at 100, medium-strength at 400. No support at 550

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:55 | 2369905 kalasend
kalasend's picture

Let me tell you a scarier version, silicon valley anecdoctal style....

Apple is a slavery house. No, not Foxconn of Dong Guan. I'm talking about Cupertino. Apple has been on a hiring spree and most new engineers are suckered in for the ESPP and stock options. These poor souls had to endure unreasonably long hours(just Google around for that). Considering their reward is relatively lower than the longer-term Apple veterans, a few quarters of less than stellar performance plus stock volatility can really turn their moods upside down. 

On the outside, however, there are another army of corporate suckers who think that luring Apple's engineers would add a lot to their values, if not for direct competition reasons. So there you have it: a perfect storm of exodus brewing. Let's watch.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:10 | 2369512 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

Nobody would actually move any sort of size during p/m or a/h

riiiiiiight

asymmetric service initiatives bitchez

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:12 | 2369519 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What retail sheep? Apple is just a fund wagon.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:08 | 2369652 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

"I feel so safe packed in here with all these other smart sheep."

"Me too.  Did you hear NFLX got sheared? Down 13% today!"

"So?  I could get out of here anytime I want...
Ewe see that little gate right over there?  Sometimes it opens!"

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:10 | 2369703 Agent P
Agent P's picture

I have to believe that right now, somewhere in this world, a Scotsman is viewing this picture and getting a major stiffy.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:20 | 2370002 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

What's the whisper number?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:41 | 2370092 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its oddly very quiet in Apple land, even on the Yahoo!Finance fuktard boards. 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:59 | 2369469 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I knew I shouldn't have sold my iPhone on craigslist.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:08 | 2369505 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I doubted that I would like my new iPhone much but I do. Still it's creepy to have my phone tell me in a feminine voice "I couldn't understand you". That role is reserved for my wife.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:22 | 2369557 Badabing
Badabing's picture

Did it cost you a kidney?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:22 | 2369559 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"I've had it with the mother-fucking snakes on this mother-fucking plane!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzXKk_xyhA4

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:14 | 2369718 Agent P
Agent P's picture

If you haven't seen this yet, do yourself a favor and watch it...friggin hilarious!

http://www.collegehumor.com/video/6648229/siri-argument

(waring for those at the office...contains a few F-bombs)

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:44 | 2370100 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL good one....'Send my wife directions to HELL!' Searching for....a place to hide...

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:59 | 2369471 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Who knew being an advocate for equities could be such a dangerous profession. Well...at least I can die knowing "ignorance is not bliss." MILLER'S CROSSING BITCHEZ!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:18 | 2369545 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You 'advocate equities'? What does that even mean?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:18 | 2369547 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Timmy Geithner as Bernie Bernbaum the shmatte kid.  "I can't die out here in the woods like a dumb animal, look into your heart Tom...look into your heart".

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:02 | 2369484 jbc77
jbc77's picture

I hope they miss.....that would be fun.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:31 | 2369594 MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

Expect a 30%-40% beat. People are misunderestimating the impact of the Iphone 4S release in China this quarter.  That will more than offset any drop-off in U.S. sales.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:28 | 2369770 nick howdy
nick howdy's picture

Are the one's they sell in China the shape of a kidney?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:03 | 2369490 boom goes the d...
boom goes the dynamite's picture

Reggie Middleton baby.

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:05 | 2369498 Debtless
Debtless's picture

He who iPanics first...iPanics best.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:06 | 2369500 ina gadda da vida
ina gadda da vida's picture

This time it's different

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:07 | 2369503 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

OT but why has Case/Schiller become so irrelevant on CNBS these days when it use to be so important? <sarc>

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:11 | 2369515 Taterboy
Taterboy's picture

I noticed that too. C/S bad number. Oh never mind. Look Apple! Cramer then said VZ and T were signs of a strong economy. Translation: More Baby Mommas got a new phone on the way down to the welfare office.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:13 | 2369521 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

On today of all days you shouldn't have to ask. It's not about Case/Schiller, food and energy prices or any of that drivel. All that counts is how many iPads are there to eat.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:14 | 2369524 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Case Schiller became a 'whatever' soon as they started showing shitty numbers.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:10 | 2369508 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Me too...fuck Apple and their condescending "Change the World" bullshit.

I am not 100% on with Google as a corporation....but at least their OS offers the choice of the user to root the phone, get under the hood, and tinker with it.  That's how innovation happens, and that's how you improve your OS....by letting your users configure it to *their* liking, and then buying those innovations to the App Store. 

Google's OS Droid is open source...meaning, you can access the source code whenever you want, for free.  AAPL makes you pay a MONTHLY fee to access their source code.

Now, of course, that opens the window for piracy and shit....but piracy has ALWAYS ignited innovation.  Which creates competition.  And monopolies like Apple.....they HATE competition.

Really, AAPL shouldn't be valued that high.  Reggie Middleton is right; the peak has been hit, and it's never going to go past 650-700 unless they somehow hire Jesus who can turn iPads into wine distillers.

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:26 | 2369572 Badabing
Badabing's picture

There’s an app for that!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:43 | 2369839 connel20
connel20's picture

Someone has to win or take a dominate position in content distribution to people's televisions.  Whoever wins this battle will be minting money.  There is a chance AppleTV becomes the dominant player in this area and that is the only prayer it has of breaking $650 again.  The next few years will see a very interesting content provider battle taking place and with the way the government has been operating lately owning the pipes into your house doesn't seem to be that big of a competitive advantage because it can be taken away with one little signature.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:09 | 2369510 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It must be awesome to be a hedge fund and know what the results are ahead of time.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:12 | 2369517 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Don't worry, drones will be monitoring the situation if it leads to pandemonium in the streets.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2134376/Is-drone-neighbourhood-R...

Is there a drone in your neighbourhood? Rise of spy planes exposed after FAA is forced to reveal 63 launch sites across U.S.

Unmanned spy planes are being launched from locations in 20 states and owners include the military and universities

There are at least 63 active drone sites around the U.S, federal authorities have been forced to reveal following a landmark Freedom of Information lawsuit.

The unmanned planes – some of which may have been designed to kill terror suspects – are being launched from locations in 20 states.

Most of the active drones are deployed from military installations, enforcement agencies and border patrol teams, according to the Federal Aviation Authority.

America, meet 1984... with drones that can kill anyone, anytime.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:15 | 2369529 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I dont know what sheep downvoted you.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:23 | 2369561 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Since when can they kill anyone, anytime?  From all the women and children we killed in our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan I'd say those things aren't quite accurate enough unless they want to take out a whole block because someone was jay walking...

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:28 | 2369574 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Meh...close enough for gubment work...hell man we've got a war against terrorists goin on! They want to take you out, and happen take out the rest of the neighborhood with you? Acceptable collateral damage....besides your neighbors were probably somehow suspect as well.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:49 | 2369649 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

The important thing is that we are all safer now.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:36 | 2369811 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

   with drones that can kill anyone, anytime.

They can try, at least.  But is that really so different from having cops on patrol? 

There are dozens of executions by police per year.  Some of them are justified. 

Does it really matter to someone (as a resident) whether they're killed by a couple of cops or an RC plane?

The first innocent victim should make for good teevee, anyway.  Like a kid walking in the park gets hit by a drone that malfunctions or something.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:14 | 2369522 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

You have to get on google today just to click on the zipper

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:29 | 2369583 BLACK_DOG
BLACK_DOG's picture

I wish my girlfriends zipper word that easy!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:14 | 2369525 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

There are now 2 camps: cultish fans, and those who will not buy slave-made igadets. We have reached max penetration.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:15 | 2369534 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Dont forget that 1 uncharted village in Borneo that Apple plans to 'expand' to. 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:16 | 2369535 j.tennquist
j.tennquist's picture

AAPL is too big to fail.  The market/momentum depends on it.  And regardless of reality, the talking heads will find a way to put the best positive spin on whatever number comes out. 

Everything is fine.  Life is beautiful.  Reality is for fools.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:47 | 2370109 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea well a few years ago RIMM was also too big to fail and the market hinged on it and could never drop and all that too, and theres been a thousand others as well now on the scrap heap. Theres always another to pump and wring dry.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:16 | 2369536 Undecided
Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:21 | 2369556 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hard for Apple to say they sold a bunch of phones when T shows a big decline. Unless people bought iStuff just to eat them.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:33 | 2369604 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

inflation play

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:51 | 2369656 MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

Once you factor in the sales in the 23 countries the IPhone was released in during Q1, this decline is irrelevant.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:17 | 2369541 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

next up: AAPL at $545. then some gap filling at $425

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:20 | 2369551 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It seems like a lot of stock and index levels have been using the 50 dma as a homing beacon. Strange.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:25 | 2369566 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

World of Robot Trading

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:21 | 2369555 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

I tell ya the next thing is gonna be asteroid mining, the wave of the future!

The real money is leaving apple and going asteroid.

 

Plans to mine asteroids for resources emerge; founders include James Cameron, Larry Page and Eric Schmidt - @BBCNews

Details have been emerging of the plan by billionaire entrepreneurs to mine asteroids for their resources.

The multi-million-dollar plan would use robotic spacecraft to squeeze chemical components of fuel and minerals such as platinum and gold out of the rocks.

The founders include film director and explorer James Cameron as well as Google's chief executive Larry Page and its executive chairman Eric Schmidt.

They even aim to create a fuel depot in space by 2020.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:25 | 2369569 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Squeeze gold out of space rocks? Sheesh, how barbaric!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:42 | 2369630 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

This is just a modern version of the "Jennifer Project"  manganese nodules indeed!

 

http://www.fas.org/irp/program/collect/jennifer.htm

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:27 | 2369768 realitybiter
realitybiter's picture

Glomar Russina sub of the 70's = Chinese satellite of the 1012??  It is something.  It is hard enough to find gold on earth, I can't imagine adding the expense of a rocket makes any sense.  I guess we will read about this little CIA project in 2040.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:24 | 2369564 fuu
fuu's picture

Wait I thought  the Tyler Durden Intraday AAPL Short Squeeze of April 23, 2012 was going to jumpstart the next era of unlimited prosperity.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:27 | 2369577 Leboob
Leboob's picture

Jeffrey Gundlach spoke this morning at IMCA conference in DC- his final words to the group was he is a chicken but if he had any guts he would be long Nat Gas and short AAPL and then lever it up 100x!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:33 | 2369601 devo
devo's picture

$502

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:45 | 2369629 nick howdy
nick howdy's picture

But look according to CNBC pundits, as of last month it was still so cheap! 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46719677/Analyst_Expect_Apple_Dividend_699_Stock_...

Why the fuck would I pay 5++ for one share of anything? Especially for Apple who makes some plastic piece of shit made out of FOXCONN slave labor, that in no way really adds value to anyone's life except maybe keep you distracted for a while as the whole world's financial system is blowing up..

I know there's a lot of death and destruction going on in the world and I know we are both dying from Fukushima fallout...But let's play "Angry Birds" while we're still here..

Plenty of people out there think somehow they become part of the "smart" that went into making these toys if they just buy one...Ahhh..NO.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:46 | 2369642 ZeroIQ
ZeroIQ's picture

Aand don't forget about Rovio's (angry birds maker) mega IPO next year!

They got offered 2 billion and turned it down. Idiots... I would have laughed the whole way to the bank.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:50 | 2369655 nick howdy
nick howdy's picture

In this insane world, that makes perfect sense..Where are my fucking meds..

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:00 | 2369677 nick howdy
nick howdy's picture

I can't get the freaking cap off! I'll have to resort to the usual flagellation.. Why am I talking to myself?...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4q6eaLn2mY

God I'm old..Does anyone have any new flagellation videos?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:06 | 2369693 fuu
Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:21 | 2369731 nick howdy
nick howdy's picture

God I hate microscopic "nature" videos...Disgusting! Germs, Virus, Sperms, Eggs..and I'm part of this! To answer the next question..Yes it's true, I have bathroom issues.  

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:00 | 2369674 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Did Apple really sell that much product since January to beat their number by 20%???? Really??? He who sells first sells best.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:16 | 2369722 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Following the NASDAQ100 is one way of confirming stock price action like AAPL.

 

Here's a good article that overlays the two.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/nasdaq100-index-apple-top/

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:29 | 2369776 chrispycrunch
chrispycrunch's picture

Why anyone would continue to hold a long position is puzzling:

  1. Apple, over the long term, can no longer grow in the US with Android around
  2. Pushing out to emerging markets for growth will be difficult: Android, and even RIM and even WP7 will PWN this geography. The latter two are not data guzzlers. Given the choice between 1-year salary lost for an iphone, or 1-month salary and messaging, the emerging markets would choose the latter
  3. Telecoms will eventually try to force Apple to cut prices. Telcos can push WP7 or android instead of Apple, improving profit margins.
  4. The iTrend is starting to look tired
  5. Apple's push into content (iTV) will be a trojan horse. Look at NFLX and the costs it must face just to grow. Will Apple be able to do a better job than Netflix in inking a better deal?
Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:35 | 2369803 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

IMHO moving averages are bullshit beyond a simple visual smoothing of volatile time series data. It is also hardly ever specified whether the MA quoted is simple or exponential. The sole justification that I have heard of MAs for trading is that "algorithms" may jump in when a particular MA is violated, which is a completely circular argument. There is no basis in any market mechanism, economic model  or statistical theory. Retrospective claims that I have seen  for buy or sell signals based on a particular MA for a particular security almost invariably turn out to be invalid when extrapolated to the future.

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:18 | 2369997 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Without smoothing volatile time data, it's really hard to talk about stuff or make predictions.  That's the problem. 

A "price" is a historical event, right?  So how can there be an "accurate" index measurement in the abstract? 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:47 | 2370108 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Good points, and I agree that MAs are very useful visual smoothing tools. I just object to the implication that the stock price breaking through its 50 D MA to the downside has any predictive value or contribution to knowledge whatever, apart from the fact that any algorithms programmed to recognizing that occurrence will sell. You could plot all possible MAs from 5 to 100 days in increments of 1 day on the chart , both simple and exponential, and still be none the wiser about the future direction of apple stock.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 14:45 | 2370873 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Yeah, that's my take.  Most of the "technical" traders I've checked out are pretty terrible. 

There's a strong case to be made for the idea of using charts as the basis for creating a pivot-table of all the potential outcomes of a given trade strategy, but it doesn't do much to tell you which of the outcomes is most likely. 

The drunk walk.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xD3cH_-7Cro

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