Apple Angst As Expectations Remain Extreme

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Apple is down 1.5% pre-market and comfortably back below its 50DMA on a top-line (and notably activations) miss from AT&T among other anxiety-inducing sentiment this morning. Perhaps what is really providing all the performance anxiety is the extreme expectations that are piled upon this greater-than-bellwether stock that has become the market. As Bloomberg's chart-of-the-day notes, Apple needs to surpass estimates by a wider margin than most of its peers in the S&P 500 in order to satisfy investors - if history is any guide. On an adjusted per-share basis, profits have beaten estimates by about 19% on average over the past seven years - a true under-promise over-deliver strategy. As Colin Gillis of BGC Partners notes, "Apple will need to smash records to keep momentum" as surpassing the $9.98/share by 20% is an impressive feat indeed as they point out that seven of the nine times Apple's shares have fallen the day after earnings has been when earnings beat by less than 20%. Performance anxiety indeed.

 

And AAPL is stumbling once again this morning...

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Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:58 | 2369467 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

What happens in pre is just noise to get the retail sheep excited. Nobody would actually move any sort of size during p/m or a/h

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:09 | 2369511 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

True indeed.

Expectations are high. That's a setup. Competitors are always around the corner in this market segment - nothing lasts forever.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:15 | 2369528 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Strong support at $550. Savvy value investors will be looking to take advantage of any temporary arbitrage should there be a sell off.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:16 | 2369539 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Was $650 just a few days ago douche nozzle.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:30 | 2369550 Badabing
Badabing's picture

Bite to deep into the AAPL and you get a mouth full of seeds.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:45 | 2369624 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

 Apple seeds do contain a small amount of cyanide, which is a lethal poison, but you are protected from the toxin by the hard seed coating. If you eat whole apple seeds, they pass through your digestive system relatively untouched. If you chew the seeds thoroughly, you will be exposed to the chemicals inside the seeds, but the dose of toxins in an apple is small enough that your body can easily detoxify it......

Or so they say anyway.


Very interesting, only slightly tangential note on apple.

Apple is very poorly represented in India. Overpriced, crappy stores, poorly trained personnel, crappy service, high high prices.... why? India, a market overwhelmed by the desire for all things white and shiney, why?

So, Apple has virtually shut themselves out of one of the fastest growing and most easily fooled consumer electronics markets in the world., giving way to Samsung.

I smell collusion, price and gepgraphy fixing.

May it fall, gravitaionally assisted at 9.8 m/sec2

By the way, for those of occult leanings, an Apple's core makes a pentagram.

ori

/socfo-r-u-cultural/

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:52 | 2369658 NewWorldOrange
NewWorldOrange's picture

iBubble

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:25 | 2369754 Metalredneck
Metalredneck's picture

If at first, you don't suck seed, keep on sucking 'til you do suck seed...

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:21 | 2369552 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

650 .. 550 .. what difference does it make when the short term price target is 700, followed by 1000 shortly after?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:24 | 2369568 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Baked in and guaranteed!

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:31 | 2369592 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

$1,000 is whose target, yours? Then I'm sure youre all in leveraged....sleep well toots.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:37 | 2369616 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Hey MDB, you wouldn't be talking your book, would you??  Hint: that thing in your mouth after biting the apple ain't a seed.....

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:43 | 2369626 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

7 minutes into trading.....

 

Volume........................1.12 Mil

Avg Daily Vol (13 Wks)..23.45 Mil

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 19:40 | 2371888 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

The difference is the short-term target is more like 500 and the long-term target is more like 400

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:27 | 2369578 nugjuice
nugjuice's picture

I would hardly call one resistance test at $550 'strong' support. More like the 'only' support above about $400

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:30 | 2369587 resurger
resurger's picture

i cant wait, when it reaches the support level of 550 i will sell more

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 19:41 | 2371893 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Strong support at 100, medium-strength at 400. No support at 550

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:55 | 2369905 kalasend
kalasend's picture

Let me tell you a scarier version, silicon valley anecdoctal style....

Apple is a slavery house. No, not Foxconn of Dong Guan. I'm talking about Cupertino. Apple has been on a hiring spree and most new engineers are suckered in for the ESPP and stock options. These poor souls had to endure unreasonably long hours(just Google around for that). Considering their reward is relatively lower than the longer-term Apple veterans, a few quarters of less than stellar performance plus stock volatility can really turn their moods upside down. 

On the outside, however, there are another army of corporate suckers who think that luring Apple's engineers would add a lot to their values, if not for direct competition reasons. So there you have it: a perfect storm of exodus brewing. Let's watch.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:10 | 2369512 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

Nobody would actually move any sort of size during p/m or a/h

riiiiiiight

asymmetric service initiatives bitchez

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:12 | 2369519 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What retail sheep? Apple is just a fund wagon.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:08 | 2369652 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

"I feel so safe packed in here with all these other smart sheep."

"Me too.  Did you hear NFLX got sheared? Down 13% today!"

"So?  I could get out of here anytime I want...
Ewe see that little gate right over there?  Sometimes it opens!"

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:10 | 2369703 Agent P
Agent P's picture

I have to believe that right now, somewhere in this world, a Scotsman is viewing this picture and getting a major stiffy.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:20 | 2370002 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

What's the whisper number?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:41 | 2370092 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its oddly very quiet in Apple land, even on the Yahoo!Finance fuktard boards. 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:59 | 2369469 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I knew I shouldn't have sold my iPhone on craigslist.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:08 | 2369505 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I doubted that I would like my new iPhone much but I do. Still it's creepy to have my phone tell me in a feminine voice "I couldn't understand you". That role is reserved for my wife.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:22 | 2369557 Badabing
Badabing's picture

Did it cost you a kidney?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:22 | 2369559 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"I've had it with the mother-fucking snakes on this mother-fucking plane!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzXKk_xyhA4

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:14 | 2369718 Agent P
Agent P's picture

If you haven't seen this yet, do yourself a favor and watch it...friggin hilarious!

http://www.collegehumor.com/video/6648229/siri-argument

(waring for those at the office...contains a few F-bombs)

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 11:44 | 2370100 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL good one....'Send my wife directions to HELL!' Searching for....a place to hide...

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:59 | 2369471 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Who knew being an advocate for equities could be such a dangerous profession. Well...at least I can die knowing "ignorance is not bliss." MILLER'S CROSSING BITCHEZ!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:18 | 2369545 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You 'advocate equities'? What does that even mean?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:18 | 2369547 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Timmy Geithner as Bernie Bernbaum the shmatte kid.  "I can't die out here in the woods like a dumb animal, look into your heart Tom...look into your heart".

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:02 | 2369484 jbc77
jbc77's picture

I hope they miss.....that would be fun.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:31 | 2369594 MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

Expect a 30%-40% beat. People are misunderestimating the impact of the Iphone 4S release in China this quarter.  That will more than offset any drop-off in U.S. sales.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:28 | 2369770 nick howdy
nick howdy's picture

Are the one's they sell in China the shape of a kidney?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:03 | 2369490 boom goes the d...
boom goes the dynamite's picture

Reggie Middleton baby.

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:05 | 2369498 Debtless
Debtless's picture

He who iPanics first...iPanics best.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:06 | 2369500 ina gadda da vida
ina gadda da vida's picture

This time it's different

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:07 | 2369503 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

OT but why has Case/Schiller become so irrelevant on CNBS these days when it use to be so important? <sarc>

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:11 | 2369515 Taterboy
Taterboy's picture

I noticed that too. C/S bad number. Oh never mind. Look Apple! Cramer then said VZ and T were signs of a strong economy. Translation: More Baby Mommas got a new phone on the way down to the welfare office.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:13 | 2369521 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

On today of all days you shouldn't have to ask. It's not about Case/Schiller, food and energy prices or any of that drivel. All that counts is how many iPads are there to eat.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:14 | 2369524 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Case Schiller became a 'whatever' soon as they started showing shitty numbers.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:10 | 2369508 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Me too...fuck Apple and their condescending "Change the World" bullshit.

I am not 100% on with Google as a corporation....but at least their OS offers the choice of the user to root the phone, get under the hood, and tinker with it.  That's how innovation happens, and that's how you improve your OS....by letting your users configure it to *their* liking, and then buying those innovations to the App Store. 

Google's OS Droid is open source...meaning, you can access the source code whenever you want, for free.  AAPL makes you pay a MONTHLY fee to access their source code.

Now, of course, that opens the window for piracy and shit....but piracy has ALWAYS ignited innovation.  Which creates competition.  And monopolies like Apple.....they HATE competition.

Really, AAPL shouldn't be valued that high.  Reggie Middleton is right; the peak has been hit, and it's never going to go past 650-700 unless they somehow hire Jesus who can turn iPads into wine distillers.

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:26 | 2369572 Badabing
Badabing's picture

There’s an app for that!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 10:43 | 2369839 connel20
connel20's picture

Someone has to win or take a dominate position in content distribution to people's televisions.  Whoever wins this battle will be minting money.  There is a chance AppleTV becomes the dominant player in this area and that is the only prayer it has of breaking $650 again.  The next few years will see a very interesting content provider battle taking place and with the way the government has been operating lately owning the pipes into your house doesn't seem to be that big of a competitive advantage because it can be taken away with one little signature.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:09 | 2369510 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It must be awesome to be a hedge fund and know what the results are ahead of time.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:12 | 2369517 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Don't worry, drones will be monitoring the situation if it leads to pandemonium in the streets.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2134376/Is-drone-neighbourhood-R...

Is there a drone in your neighbourhood? Rise of spy planes exposed after FAA is forced to reveal 63 launch sites across U.S.

Unmanned spy planes are being launched from locations in 20 states and owners include the military and universities

There are at least 63 active drone sites around the U.S, federal authorities have been forced to reveal following a landmark Freedom of Information lawsuit.

The unmanned planes – some of which may have been designed to kill terror suspects – are being launched from locations in 20 states.

Most of the active drones are deployed from military installations, enforcement agencies and border patrol teams, according to the Federal Aviation Authority.

America, meet 1984... with drones that can kill anyone, anytime.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:15 | 2369529 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I dont know what sheep downvoted you.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!