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Apple Beats, Guides Lower

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And here they are:

  • APPLE 2Q REV. $39.19B, EST. $36.87B
  • APPLE 2Q EPS $12.30, EST. $10.02
  • APPLE SOLD 35.1 MILLION IPHONES IN QTR, EST. 31.2M   
  • APPLE 2Q IPOD UNITS SOLD 7.7MLN , DOWN 15%            
  • APPLE 2Q IPAD UNITS SOLD 11.8MLN                      
  • APPLE 2Q GROSS MARGIN 47.4%, EST. 42.8%              
  • APPLE 2Q MACINTOSH UNITS SOLD 4MLN , UP 7%            

But:

  • APPLE SEES 3Q REV. ABOUT $34B, EST. $37.49B
  • APPLE SEES 3Q EPS ABOUT $8.68, EST. $9.96       

Is this just the usual lowballing, or is it for real this time? Recall that Tim Cook's first earnings release the company guided above consensus. Is Cook becoming Jobs, or is this a guide down for real?

Also the reason for the beat: ASIA. Not the surge in sequential growth in the traditionally weaker Q2 (ended March 31) quarter all courtesy of Asia:

Stock right now is +$25 in the after hours session.

 

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Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:35 | 2371374 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Options were implying ~$40 move for tomorrow's open, so looks like $600 is in the cards, again.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:37 | 2371390 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Foxconn.......coming to Amerika. 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:38 | 2371403 slewie the-pi-rat
slewie the-pi-rat's picture

rejoice slaves, an extra portion of rice for all

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:40 | 2371409 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Apple still sucks, just kidding <g>

Sounds like they shifted profits and sales from the next quarter into the present quarter. Wouldn't want to screw up the Facebook POS IPO.

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:08 | 2371551 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

We all just got gamed by Verizon, CNBS, foxxconn and the bankers and AAPL

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:59 | 2371703 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Negative all day.  Forcing longs to sell.  It was a sham.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 22:32 | 2372166 Whatta
Whatta's picture

forced me to go long a ATM call spread just before close.

CHA-CHING, a two-bagger+ at opening bell tomorrow. sweet.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:40 | 2371418 fuu
fuu's picture

Fake ass bitch.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:43 | 2371429 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

guy from phoenix capital predicting doom for sure, this time not crying wolf, in may/june might have to find another profession

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:14 | 2371579 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Ok, now we've got the doube-hypenated fake to go along with the no-hypenated fake.

Pathetic squared!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:46 | 2371443 ACP
ACP's picture

Kinda reminds me of the Nasdaq rebound in 2000, before it tanked for good.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:51 | 2371461 CPL
CPL's picture

Look who's buying it and volume.  No thank you.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:43 | 2371669 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

No way to know, though i'd love to hear your clearly bearish thesis on why its a flop based on who is buying it in the a/h session.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 21:40 | 2372065 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Canadian Womens! I like you. I'll try to help you. Short it. Short it right now. It's a classic, classic, example of public fever; aka tulipmania. Okay? Good.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 21:42 | 2372067 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Short it now; Canadian Womens. Dont' wait for anything. Do it now!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:35 | 2371375 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

BOOOOYAHHHHH!

Cramer was right !

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:47 | 2371446 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

I have never owned an apple product, but I do own 2 mosin nagants !

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:55 | 2371477 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Used to own a number or AKs till they fell out of the boat.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:56 | 2371493 New American Re...
New American Revolution's picture

But do you have enough ammo?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:23 | 2371620 taniquetil
taniquetil's picture

7.64x54r is cheap cheap cheap!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 19:32 | 2371871 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

500 ROUND bricks @ Cabelas way to go...they even throw the case in for free

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:35 | 2371376 JeremyWS
JeremyWS's picture

EU is the most interesting reaction.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:35 | 2371378 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

iSandbag

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:35 | 2371379 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

damn, some1 is making money...

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:37 | 2371394 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

As one of the few AAPL bulls here at ZH, I can now change my adult diapers: Tyler, you had me scared for the last two days.   

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:39 | 2371406 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

I was not because their analysis has been wrong FOREVER, they have ZERO credibility when it comes to Apple.  ZERO!!!!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:42 | 2371421 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

I guess if zero credibility = ZH reports Apple sandbags their earnings consistently, then yes.. they have "zero credibility."

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:06 | 2371539 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

Sometimes the analysis gets mixed with the religious fervour. 

 

TD#1 does have a personal downward bias after all.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:39 | 2371412 CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

bear rally

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:46 | 2371441 HarryM
HarryM's picture

Will be 650 by Friday 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:55 | 2371478 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Again? Then what? 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:59 | 2371506 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

$15049.67 next month.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:56 | 2371490 HarryM
HarryM's picture

The game of chicken , continues

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:58 | 2371501 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Not for me, I just laugh at this bullshit. 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 23:30 | 2372313 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I sent one email to a well known ZH member.

It had nothing to do with the MSM and Wall Street and lots to do with Jesse Livermore.

It said BTFD

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:35 | 2371380 maxmad
maxmad's picture

here comes the selloff!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:36 | 2371386 maxmad
maxmad's picture

592 is the high of this move.... SELL

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:41 | 2371416 CClarity
CClarity's picture

596 and don't sell.  Ride it up to 700.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:44 | 2371432 maxmad
maxmad's picture

6 months it will be half off!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:46 | 2371442 maxmad
maxmad's picture

OK 598... This is it now... the high is in...

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:53 | 2371469 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Now 602.  Actually, I'd recommend backing out by $650 unless Europe or other general scary market stuff rears its head again (and of course it will) because at the end of the day, Apple is used as market proxy for fast selling, margin calls, liquidity trades, and every "professional" money manager feels compelled to own some or have to explain why not.  

It is a well run company with amazing products.  Huge cash balances and discipline.  It is a quality stock.  But it no longer trades just on that.  Its huge market cap makes it something of a commodity.  Have to pay attention to that too.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:56 | 2371494 blu
blu's picture

Lots of heat still at 603. But yeah I think that might be it.

JNPR exploded before the bell. People are willing to buy.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:08 | 2371552 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Are you by any chance short AAPL?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 20:56 | 2371993 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

short? on this site? NOOOOOOOOOO. Why would you ever think that?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:35 | 2371382 Debtless
Debtless's picture

iCasino

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:35 | 2371383 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Take what (news) you want and leave the rest. At least that's how the HFT algos see the world.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:36 | 2371384 MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

Apple is notorious for lowballing so they end up smashing their own estimates.  This is a lowball although I do not expect next quarter to be as strong with no major product launch other than a new mac.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:40 | 2371417 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

New iphone typically comes out in the summer...

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:13 | 2371570 MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

Normally true, but Qualcomm's supply problems suggest may have issues with a summer release.  It's been suggested that there may be a October release, which would give Apple a massive ramp up for Q4(Apple Q1) earnings.  The wildcard are the impact of new windows tablets and whether carriers start to back a windows phone alternative to exercising subsidy pricing leverage on Apple (I'm skeptical).  Windows tablets I do think have potential, but not enough to put a massive dent in Apple's bottom line.

The other obvious wild card is the macro environment.  Global slowdown is looming which is the most likely road bump for Apple rather than any competitor's products. 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 21:45 | 2372069 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I'm so sorry to see you've been hypnotized. Consider RIMM. Consider it well. These are ephemera. APPL's day in the sun is done. It's over.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:55 | 2371487 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Otherwise known as the Oppenheimer's guidance; under-promise & over-deliver.

Good thing for the abundance of those Chengdu working bees at Foxconn's factory, keeping the production line alive for the cult members.

Aside from AAPL's share movement during summertime and the impact of any external factors vis-a-vis EU crisis etc, I expect it to overperform this year due to the macbook line replacement/consolidation, mini iPad and the iPhone 5 etc. launch around October, when the smartphone market will have already render any pre-summer releases e.g. Samsung Galaxy III, as old news, and the 24-hour news cycle hype will have everyone and its brother pile in.

Also they might have some new products ready such the iTV or iFridge or whatever that might perpetuate the hysteria, along with the application of technologies, which were parts of past Apple's acquisitions, like liquid metal or something along theses lines, which can't hurt.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 18:44 | 2371778 ffart
ffart's picture

You people realize that every electronic device we consume today is made in similar conditions, right? Starting to think Apple could see 700's before it pulls back because of how clueless the bears seem to be.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:42 | 2371387 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Even apple consumers need credit and debt to be flowing more freely than future looks, so guidance is appropriate.  Just wait until other consumer companies actually acknowledge the same in their guidance.   But they WON'T for a long long manipulated time.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:38 | 2371393 Conman
Conman's picture

Guide below current Q revenue is good news no? Cause, all news is good news right?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:37 | 2371395 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Hell YES!!!!!  Where's the big fucking exit Zero Hedge????!!!!!!!  

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:46 | 2371439 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

As soon as the gap is closed between T 's iphone sales drop and the realization this Q was just pulled forward.

Say, 48 hrs.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:51 | 2371462 MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

Overseas sales dude.  The U.S. is mattering less over time as Apple expands overseas.  If you think Americans are zombies for Apple products you should see what it's like in China, and believe it or not there is a sufficiently large "middle class" in China willing to pay stupid prices for Iphones.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:57 | 2371499 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Ding ding ding ding, winner winner chicken dinner.  Explain it to the short bussers.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 19:02 | 2371809 smiler03
smiler03's picture

 "sufficiently large "middle class" in China willing to pay stupid prices for Iphones.".

But I'd rephrase that...

"sufficiently large stupid "middle class" in China willing to pay for Iphones.".

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:46 | 2371440 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Good question. I'm sure ZH's readership just lives off of your gambling tendencies..

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:55 | 2371486 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

It's not gambling, it's called analysis, not bad RM analysis, but good analysis.  It's like everyone was staring at ATT and VZ earnings instead of looking at international sales.  Sales trail off with VZ and T due to timing of launch of iphone 4s but make up for it with internationals sales like China.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:18 | 2371602 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Analysis of a rigged casino game consists of trying to front run the scam du jour.

Good luck with that! (my guess is that your info will never be complete enough (nor trushtworthy))

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:54 | 2371473 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

When everyone realizes this is the top.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:38 | 2371397 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

What eva

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:38 | 2371400 youngman
youngman's picture

Good job...the toy company beat.....boy oh boy...now back to work....or should I just text on my Iphone....

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:39 | 2371410 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Apple is sandbagging on their Q3 EPS estimates.  They play this game every quarter.  Why do people play along?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:40 | 2371413 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

hahahaahahahahaah.  Once again all the haters are losing money

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:44 | 2371433 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Yes - just like you "lovers" were earning money the past few weeks.. get back to us when the stock price inches up another $40..

Then again - I'm on the sideline - but it's funny to see all these pro Apple-heads get excited over a number they have as much control of as a ball on the roulette table. You gambled - you won. But don't act like you get props for it... the stock did dip quite a bit the past couple weeks.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:48 | 2371453 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

Actually I don't invest.  I just find it amusing reading all the comments from the lovers and the haters.  All the world's indeed a stage :)

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:59 | 2371504 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

This is what we call trading. Or investing.

 

'It's all in the game, yo'

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:40 | 2371415 max2205
max2205's picture

ramp

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:41 | 2371419 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Aaaaaaannnddf iitttt's gone.

Typed from my iPhone.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:43 | 2371428 Eurogroup
Eurogroup's picture

Newton's law rewritten: F= -i*(M*a)

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:45 | 2371437 taraxias
taraxias's picture

All those that bought at $644 are rejoicing it's bouncing up to $600 before it heads down again. Awesome....

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:51 | 2371460 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL, I wouldnt touch this bubble with free money I found in a ditch....and lowered guidance is not good news, at all.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:56 | 2371489 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

No, I'm rejoicing that my Apr $600 calls I bought before the close are in the money.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:59 | 2371507 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'd move on them real quick if I were you.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:47 | 2371444 Joke Heros
Joke Heros's picture

The entire continent of Europe could sink into the ocean in the next 5 minutes and CNBC would still be foaming at the mouth bloviating about Apples blowout earnings. Hilarious.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:52 | 2371466 Aductor
Aductor's picture

Indeed. Maria Slartibartfastiromo would ask "How do you trade this? Will Apple be able to sell iPads as paddles?"

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:56 | 2371488 Raynja
Raynja's picture

Europe's net exposure is actually zero so it wouldn't matter....

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:47 | 2371447 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Could someone check on Reggie and make sure he's okay...

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:47 | 2371449 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

Five minutes later and crAAPL is worth $40B more. What a scam!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 19:18 | 2371842 smiler03
smiler03's picture

OMFG!!!!  A headline in the UK media August 2011....."FTSE Loses £50bn As World Markets Tumble"

http://news.sky.com/home/business/article/16043146

And now Apple does that on its own and it's just another day. (teenyweeny exaggeration)

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:48 | 2371452 saywhat
saywhat's picture

Saywhat?....exSqueeze me

That'a'way`~~~~

This is not different this time...it's an inovative company that hooked an entire generation...with the products to back up the hype.

Sorry

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 21:51 | 2372081 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Pets R us, 1999; Sylvania Television, 1964, (everyone will buy a color television, who knew they would be made by Sony?); Etc. Etc. It's over. The ridiculous unsustainable civilian tulip rally is over. Now.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:49 | 2371454 RollOnShabbos
RollOnShabbos's picture

Bad USA numbers! They were saved by buyers in CHINA... saved like a chinamen jumping off his factory roof into a safety net?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:50 | 2371456 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Reggie is going to be in tears and throwing his toys outta the cot tonight

..it'll be a sleepless night at Google HQ for the muck-raking squad

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:50 | 2371457 Shleprock
Shleprock's picture

$601.84  un real!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 21:52 | 2372084 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Un-Real. Exactly. that's the problem alright. Un-Real. Short it; short it now.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:50 | 2371458 resurger
resurger's picture

Fuck AAPL!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:52 | 2371467 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

Haters gonna hate!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:53 | 2371471 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

What, no dividend?

/sarc

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:54 | 2371474 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Prostitutes use Iphone in china because their customers want iface.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:57 | 2371497 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

iRie, man, iRie.....

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:12 | 2371574 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

/sarc....

There, are you are happy now?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:58 | 2371502 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Sandbagging on the guidance as usual.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 16:58 | 2371505 asteroids
asteroids's picture

By tomorrow you'll iForget. Real problems like Spain and Italy did not go away. 45million people on food stamps don't give a shit. The shorts just got a great chance to reload.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:00 | 2371510 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Back to where it was....Friday...gee thats great.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:01 | 2371516 Jacque Itch
Jacque Itch's picture

They give horrible guidance that would tank any other stock.  But the sheeple know that they lowball so they say "AAPL does that every quarter" and then a monster rally.  These crAPPL people know how to play the ponzi like no other.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:03 | 2371521 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

now for the AH dump.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:06 | 2371537 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

 AAPL is powered by fanboyz and folks with more money than brains. Most cant wait to Jailbreak their crippled hardware.

 

 Big Profit = Overpriced warez + Underpaid Slave Labor

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:17 | 2371597 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

you are a part of the American disease, how would you know how to recognise a class act?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:31 | 2371649 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

=WINNING

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:08 | 2371549 hotkarlandthecl...
hotkarlandtheclevelandsteamers's picture

But Reggie told us he has warned us THANK GOD FOR THE BRILLIANT REGGIE AND HIS PROFITABLE ANALYSIS HE PERFORMS.  BAHAHAH

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:21 | 2371612 MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

Do people seriously listen to Reggie Middleton?  Or even worse, pay for his 'research'?  It's embarassing that this guy gets an occasional TV spot.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:07 | 2371550 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

A stock that ramps like a penny stock during THE most stressful economic times since ancient Rome is an avalanche waiting to happen.  Sure you can trade it and make a lot of money, but you can do that with the penny stocks too, probably with less risk.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 18:47 | 2371785 ffart
ffart's picture

Tell that to my junior resource portfolio over the past 6 months

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:11 | 2371571 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

munster had a 'worried man face' after hours?

smell alittle channel stuffing?

jmo

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:18 | 2371590 Jake88
Jake88's picture

guy is a terrible communicator. that last sentence is completely unintelligble.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:27 | 2371634 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

Change "not" to "note" and you should be able to puzzle it out.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:26 | 2371631 crawl
crawl's picture

It would suck to be short before the earnings release.
The lower expectations for the next quarter is ignored.
A big market rally to follow tomorrow? Wouldn't be a surprise. Short covering for sure.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:27 | 2371633 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

but he wears a blk t shirt and jeans with sneakers, must be a genius also.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:29 | 2371642 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Two things that strike me about the comments about APPL:

 

1. The failure to understand that Apple sell a lot of product. You might think that IPhone owners are pathetic hipster wannabees but their money is still green. 

 

2. The whole "slave labor" angle. So you think your "Made in PROC" stuff, or any of your umpteen Aisian made products were produced under ideal conditions? No. 

They move products, they actually make stuff people want to buy. That is reflected in every aspect of the company. That the stock is overvalued? Sure but as long as the hedge fund hotel everyone loves to hate always finds greater fools the race will continue. 

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 22:45 | 2372196 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

yeah but some point people are going to wise up and not buy the same phone and tablet ever year over and over simply because its a new color or has a new roman numeral on it.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:30 | 2371644 adr
adr's picture

Ha ha ha. $12 a share is a massive beat when the stock went from $400 to $640 during the quarter? $450 is a fair price for Apple based on the earnings release.

Fucking bullshit. Based on $700 estimates some analysts pegged earnings at almost $40 a share last month. Record sales of iPhones to store shelves, not to customers. Next quarter the tanking sales will show up.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 17:37 | 2371659 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

"Record sales of iPhones to store shelves, not to customers. Next quarter the tanking sales will show up"

 

That might be in the USA, certainly not in Europe where everyone and their grandma is getting one. The trick? No one buys them, they come with your cell phone plan. That how I got mine. Cheaper calls and a free IPhone.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 18:02 | 2371710 walküre
walküre's picture

What most analysts fail to recognize is that for every AAPL product sold, the consumer is not buying any of their competitors.

RIM should get slammed in the crapper tomorrow.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 19:30 | 2371862 smiler03
smiler03's picture

I think you have AAPL iGlasses on ......

RIM died months ago

Android outsells iPhone

Blackberry Playbook, Kindle Fire outsell iPad in their markets.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 18:03 | 2371714 Auburn
Auburn's picture

Where's Middleton???  oh yeah - on a long enough timeline.  I'm sure they will fade at some point - be happy for strong innovative companies.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 18:10 | 2371726 moneymutt
moneymutt's picture

apple is cashing in on a once in a lifetime shift from pcs to smart phones and tablets...this could last for another year or two as these devices creep into the hands of those who never thought to want them before.

Right now there is so much evolution and function to these mobile devices, anyone from a leisure user to a business person has good reason to get a new one every few years, while many who have resisted and never had either are now getting their first ones. I dont know how many times I've been around a techno-phobes, who have some 10 year PC in there house and who mocked people buy Ipads, but then actually messed around with someone's Ipad for a few minutes and bought one the next week. It can be anything, like the nice email presentation, the beauty of person photos on it, the ability to watch movies, playing a simple game like scrabble or angry birds, using a app applicable to your hobby, watching youtube or easy web surfing. Plus you have more and more people chained to some sort of social networking or casual gaming, so their leisure entertainment is computer based and what better way to do that than from a tablet. In business more and more stuff is web-based, so tablet OS are more then fine for most things mulit-tasking workers do these days. I see lots of small businesses buying one or two Iphones, just to have handy to read Groupons, etc..Dedicated smart phones and tablets are being incorporated into sophisticated testing equipment, easier to write an app and buy existing hardware in you device than to start from scratch.

So for now, there is more than enough money to be made by Apple, Samsung, Google etc, this is a huge one time shift..even a fairly low income person can get a Anroid tablet for $200 and use it on free wifi for years and get very good value out of it..

but eventually, when the market is saturated, Google will do to Apple as MS did, Google will become the dominant software, on all sorts of hardware, while Apple's market share and margins will decrease. Good luck guessing when the mobile device market is saturated and evolution is stagnant...there is still a long way to go before that happens, how long did it take with PCs?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 18:30 | 2371754 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

"how long did it take with PCs?"

Not long at all, think about from Dos to Windows95: about 15 years, LOL.

 

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 19:50 | 2371912 smiler03
smiler03's picture

My opinion is that the iPad is a fad. It can't replace a PC, it can't replace a Laptop but it can replace an iPhone.

People are buying the iPad for one of two reasons: 

1) Apple Fanboys - they will always buy a new one regardless of its capabilities. They are socially challenged, mostly virgins, quite rich.

2) Status seekers - they want one to show off. They frequent Starbucks 150 times more than the average US Citizenism (sic). They are challenged when it comes to typing. Without an iApp the tablet might as well be a blackboard without chalk. They rely on credit to acquire theirs, they are not as concerned to have an up-to-date one. Desperate wannabee owners can buy an iPad toy model from eBay for $20. 

And that is why you should sell AAPL.

Tongue in cheek.

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 22:46 | 2372203 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

ipad is a toy.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 20:08 | 2371928 Nid
Nid's picture

Long magnifying readers.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 18:28 | 2371749 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

The competitors will be forced to lower the price to compete. The end result will be very similar to the PC-Mac war during the early 80s. Apple lost, pc won. This time won't be any different. Apple is competing with everybody.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 19:13 | 2371828 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

I don't get why people want to pick on Apple?  I mean, the products are great, the company is great, the valuation is not wild, the legacy is almost noble.

There are thousands of better companies to be down on. 

Is it the market cap?   The market cap is just what it is, it's not an indicator of anything worth obsessing over.

I'm a total bear, have been since '06. (I've also used Apple products exclusively since '95).    

Apple is hardly the worst, most evil, most vulnerable company in America.  Hardly.  Quite the opposite, really.

The banks, the retailers, the restaurants, the Euro, bonds......all better pickings on the short side. 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 19:57 | 2371919 smiler03
smiler03's picture

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=apple+fanboy

All six definitions explain your mentality. Sadly there is no known cure.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 19:30 | 2371863 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Earnings are generally a crap shoot. "However" anyone shorting a chart that has beaten down to "first it" supports on a high caliber stock is just asking to get screwed.

AAPL IS THE MARKET. Do you really think these clowns would make it that easy for you?

I should've taken my own advice and bought calls but my first comment "crap shoot" kept me from doing. The charts said it was a buy.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 21:01 | 2371999 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I think i know whaty "YOUR PHUCKED BAGHOLDER!" means now!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 22:42 | 2372192 I should be working
I should be working's picture

I think your NFLX AAPL comparision just got vaporized.

How much you wanna bet the 'rumors' about lower iPhone sales were spread by some hedge fund that was buying it up before earnings?

I was really thinking about buying more before earnings, but I really shouldn't average more than 5% into one stock, oh well...

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 23:33 | 2372324 cnhedge
cnhedge's picture

 

An update on TARGET2

http://www.cnhedge.com/thread-4003-1-1.html

http://www.jinrongbaike.com/

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 01:14 | 2372467 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Reggie, you hooker.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!